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The Official TROUTstanding Thread


Chuck

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3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Again, WAR accounts for this. 

Fine, I disagree with the stat this time. It’s not a perfect measure. I don’t think it gives Trout enough credit for outproducing everybody handily even playing in the larger ball parks

i think Betts would put up .320/.400/.550 playing half his games at Angels Stafium. That’s still a great player but it’s not Trout. 

 

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3 minutes ago, GrittyVeterans said:

Fine, I disagree with the stat this time. It’s not a perfect measure. I don’t think it gives Trout enough credit for outproducing everybody handily even playing in the larger ball parks

i think Betts would put up .320/.400/.550 playing half his games at Angels Stafium. That’s still a great player but it’s not Trout. 

 

Well again, WAR is supposed to account for context - meaning, ballpark and position. If you don't think Trout gets enough credit, then you're essentially saying you don't think WAR factors ballpark into account correctly, which is fine but I'm not sure why you'd think that. But no biggie.

Note that I am saying this year, with the emphasis on so far. By season's end, Trout could be at 10 WAR and Betts at 9. But so far they've been virtually identical in terms of overall value...at least according to the single best stat we currently have.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Trout's fWAR now up to 8.8 after tonight's game. Looks like he has a good chance at 10.

Also, random factoid: his current .467 OBP is the highest single season OBP among any active player.

Highest OBP of active players:

1. Trout .467 2018

2. Pujols .462 2008

3. Harper .460 2015

4. Votto .454 2017

5. Cabrera .448 2011

Trout's is the highest since Chipper Jones' .470 in 2008, at the end of the Roid Era.

 

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Trout is on the cusp of turning the quartet of Mantle, Mays, Cobb and Speaker of inner circle center fielders into a quintet.

That said, In 2011 Albert Pujols was doing the same with Gehrig and Foxx at 1B, but has essentially added no value since then. I am not saying Trout will collapse like Pujols, just that you never know how the second act will look. Ken Griffey was also "cuspy" until 30ish - not quite as good as those guys (or Trout), but looking like he'd be in the next group down. Like Pujols, his 30s added nothing to his resume and he ended up more at the head of the rest of the pack.

 

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Trout's fWAR just went over 9 and is now 9.1. That gives him five (out of seven) seasons at 9+ fWAR. Here are the leaders in 9 fWAR seasons:

10 Ruth

8 Hornsby, Bonds

7 Mays

6 Wagner, Williams, Rodriguez

5 Cobb, Gehrig, Trout

4 Collins, Mantle

3 Musial, Morgan, Schmidt

2 J Jackson, Lajoie, Speaker, Foxx, DiMaggio, Robinson, Yaz, Ripken, Henderson, Griffey Jr

1 Thirty two dudes

So only seven guys who have had more 9+ fWAR seasons than Trout. Nine! It is hard imagining that he won't have at least two or three more and join the elite of the elite.

What a player.

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Here's another crazy factoid (and yes, I realize that this thread is becoming my own personal masturbatorium, but F*ck you all).

Trout leads all major leaguers from 2006-18 with 64 WAR. #2 is Miggy Cabrera at 62.3. But here's the thing. notice I said 2006...meaning, Trout wasn't a full-time player for the first six years of that span. But he still leads the entire span in WAR.

Top Five fWAR 2006-18 (longest span Trout leads)

1. Trout 64.0 WAR in 1054 games

2 Miggy 62.3 WAR in 1869 games

3 Beltre 56.2 WAR in 1800 games

4 Votto 55.8 WAR in 1563 games

5 Cano 55.3 WAR in 1933 games

 

Look at those games played. Trout surpasses Miggy with more than 800 fewer.

And of course the ridiculousness of Trout is even better exemplified by this, which I'll post again and again:

Top Five fWAR 2012-18 (Trout full-time)

1. Trout 63.6 

2. Donaldson 36.2

3. McCutchen 35.9

4. Goldschmidt 35.7

5. Votto 34.3 

 

One more thing. In that span of 2012-18, Trout's total WAR is greater than the totals of both #8 Giancarlo Stanton (31.4) and #9 Jose Altuve (31.1). In other words, during his full-time years, Trout has been about as or slightly more valuable than Stanton and Altuve combined. Or to put it one more way:

Trout + Replacement Player  Stanton + Altuve 

 

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3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Here's another crazy factoid (and yes, I realize that this thread is becoming my own personal masturbatorium, but F*ck you all).

Trout leads all major leaguers from 2006-18 with 64 WAR. #2 is Miggy Cabrera at 62.3. But here's the thing. notice I said 2006...meaning, Trout wasn't a full-time player for the first six years of that span. But he still leads the entire span in WAR.

Top Five fWAR 2006-18 (longest span Trout leads)

1. Trout 64.0 WAR in 1054 games

2 Miggy 62.3 WAR in 1869 games

3 Beltre 56.2 WAR in 1800 games

4 Votto 55.8 WAR in 1563 games

5 Cano 55.3 WAR in 1933 games

 

Look at those games played. Trout surpasses Miggy with more than 800 fewer.

And of course the ridiculousness of Trout is even better exemplified by this, which I'll post again and again:

Top Five fWAR 2012-18 (Trout full-time)

1. Trout 63.6 

2. Donaldson 36.2

3. McCutchen 35.9

4. Goldschmidt 35.7

5. Votto 34.3 

 

One more thing. In that span of 2012-18, Trout's total WAR is greater than the totals of both #8 Giancarlo Stanton (31.4) and #9 Jose Altuve (31.1). In other words, during his full-time years, Trout has been about as or slightly more valuable than Stanton and Altuve combined. Or to put it one more way:

Trout + Replacement Player  Stanton + Altuve 

 

And 0 playoff wins in that time period. Amazing

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Trout's WAR numbers with 3 games left.

Fangraphs: 9.5

B-R: 10.1

So unless he goes ballistic, he won't reach 10 fWAR, which is too bad. He would have been the only player other than Barry Bonds with three 10 fWAR seasons since Willie Mays. Hopefully next year.

As for rWAR, Trout just became the only player other than Bonds with three 10+ rWAR seasons since Mays. For some reasons it doesn't feel as legit as fWAR, but still pretty awesome.

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