Albert Pujols Production Drop Off (St. Louis compared to Angels)

[CubsFan]

Can someone explain to me why his production dropped off dramatically as soon as he left the Cards for the Angels.

Is it AL vs NL.

Busch stadium vs Angel stadium?

His BA/OBP/Slugging all dropped off significantly as soon as he landed in Anaheim.  Why?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml

[jordan]

[CubsFan]

3 minutes ago, jordan said:

I guess his production would drop off if he saw someone like that.  What is that thing anyway.

[Ohtaniland]

Gee I hadn’t noticed.

[arch stanton]

I guess the new couldn’t be asked to try the search function to see if any threads had already been started about the production of a guy starting his seventh season on the team

[CubsFan]

2 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

I guess the new couldn’t be asked to try the search function to see if any threads had already been started about the production of a guy starting his seventh season on the team

You could just send me a link with the best/recommended thread.

I googled some articles but they really don't do a good job of explaining why he dropped off, just that he did because of age.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, CubsFan said:

Can someone explain to me why his production dropped off dramatically as soon as he left the Cards for the Angels.

Is it AL vs NL.

Busch stadium vs Angel stadium?

His BA/OBP/Slugging all dropped off significantly as soon as he landed in Anaheim.  Why?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml

It could be steroids, but he dropped off at a very normal rate in conjunction with his age, so probably not.

I think it simply comes down to age really. The Cards had him in his twenties, we'll have him for his thirties.

[fan_since79]

I'm sure Albert would be offended if he saw this thread, as he's in the best shape of his life and ready to rock from the cleanup spot in our powerhouse lineup.

 

[tdawg87]

His dropoff from 2010 through 2012 was certainly dramatic, but not as much as people think. 

He went from a 173 OPS+ in 2010 to a 148 OPS+ in 2011. That's a huge drop, but essentially he went from Elite superstar level to mere superstar. Then in 2012 his OPS+ was 138. Another drop but not terribly significant. He was hurt in 2013 which saw his OPS+ drop to 116, but he rebounded in 2014 with a 126 OPS+ as a 34 year old. The outlier is 2013, but honestly everything else is indicative of a guy who was past his prime steadily dropping off in production. He was still modestly productive as a 36 year old. 

Obviously a player of his caliber dropping off like he did was unexpected, but he's old and worn down. Some guys can produce well into their late thirties. Some guys fall off a cliff after 32.

I don't think it's as surprising as people are acting. The only real question I have is what happened to his legendary eye and plate discipline? That shit doesn't just go away like power, bat speed, leg speed etc...

 

[JustATroutFan]

Not saying that Pujols cheated back in the day or something but those Bonds' drugs would no doubt make Pujols a great hitter/player again.

[tdawg87]

You guys are dicks.

[Fish Oil]

7 minutes ago, JustATroutFan said:

Not saying that Pujols cheated back in the day or something but those Bonds' drugs would no doubt make Pujols a great hitter/player again.

I wouldn't be opposed to his trying something.

[JustATroutFan]

2 minutes ago, Fish Oil said:

I wouldn't be opposed to his trying something.

Just kidding about saying "no doubt". Pujols could be great again without those Bonds' drugs but the chance at that happening would be like 0.0000000001%.

[CubsFan]

40 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

It could be steroids, but he dropped off at a very normal rate in conjunction with his age, so probably not.

I think it simply comes down to age really. The Cards had him in his twenties, we'll have him for his thirties.

I guess what I was wondering is if change in leagues or divisions had something to do with it.  Normally you would think going to the AL would be an advantage since you now have an extra bat upgrade behind you at DH instead of pitcher.

OR perhaps cubs/reds/pirates/brewers are more hitter friendly teams and parks than rangers/mariners/astros/a's/

and what about angels park itself is that somehow detrimental to Pujols games compared to Busch stadium?  On first glance it would seem the opposite.  But then an extreme example of park advantage for a certain type of hitter would be Fenway.

[JustATroutFan]

There's a lot of reasons why Pujols has been in time decline since joining the Angels but I think the biggest factor is age. Most star players or just the good players usually decline about the time Pujols signed with the Angels.  He was almost 32 when he signed with the Angels.

I think the second best reason for his decline is that he just tried to do too much since signing that big deal with the Angels. I have rarely seen Pujols use the whole field with the Angels when he is hitting. He's trying to do too much and hit home runs. I mean, seriously, no way would opposing teams play the shift against Pujols during his prime. Dude was such a smart hitter and knew how to use the whole field.

[Blarg]

OPS+ accounts for ballparks. Albert dropped from 173 to 148 OPS+ in his last two seasons in St Louis so the decline had already started. His adaptation to the AL lasted about 3 months and his first season he hit to a 138 OPS+. 

Every season but this off season he has been recovering from surgery. That has an impact. Couple it with aging and you see the fall off. It's not complex. 

 

[CubsFan]

48 minutes ago, Blarg said:

OPS+ accounts for ballparks. Albert dropped from 173 to 148 OPS+ in his last two seasons in St Louis so the decline had already started. His adaptation to the AL lasted about 3 months and his first season he hit to a 138 OPS+. 

Every season but this off season he has been recovering from surgery. That has an impact. Couple it with aging and you see the fall off. It's not complex. 

 

One of the articles said his walk have dropped off dramatically even comparing it to other aging superstars.  Walk and pitch selection is supposed to go up with age but inexplicably has gone down with Pujols.

[Inside Pitch]

3 hours ago, CubsFan said:

Can someone explain to me why his production dropped off dramatically as soon as he left the Cards for the Angels.

Is it AL vs NL.

Busch stadium vs Angel stadium?

His BA/OBP/Slugging all dropped off significantly as soon as he landed in Anaheim.  Why?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml

One mystery at a time...   

I'm still trying to figure out how a player supposedly in his prime, staying in the same league and division could fall off a cliff like Jason Heyward has...    Only 26 years old when he became a Cub... he went from a 117 OPS+ to 68.    His career prior to joining Chicago saw him put up a 114 OPS+, since then it's dropped to 76.   

At least with AP, he was older, had foot problems and well there was a league shift and the dreaded marine layer associated with Angel Stadium ...  Heyward by comparison moved to a more hitter friendly environment at a time when the rest of the division got markedly weaker.

Maybe it was the change in managers...

 

 

[tdawg87]

4 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Maybe it was the change in managers...

[JustATroutFan]

5 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

One mystery at a time...   

I'm still trying to figure out how a player supposedly in his prime, staying in the same league and division could fall off a cliff like Jason Heyward has...    Only 26 years old when he became a Cub... he went from a 117 OPS+ to 68.    His career prior to joining Chicago saw him put up a 114 OPS+, since then it's dropped to 76.   

At least with AP, he was older, had foot problems and well there was a league shift and the dreaded marine layer associated with Angel Stadium ...  Heyward by comparison moved to a more hitter friendly environment at a time when the rest of the division got markedly weaker.

Maybe it was the change in managers...

 

 

Heyward was never that good. Dude was a big time underachiever before he signed with the Cubs. 

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, JustATroutFan said:

Heyward was never that good. Dude was a big time underachiever before he signed with the Cubs. 

Woosh.....   

But for the record..  a 40 point dropoff in OPS+ at what should have been his peak seasons is crazy.

[JustATroutFan]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Woosh.....   

But for the record..  a 40 point dropoff in OPS+ at what should have been his peak seasons is crazy.

I've heard that he's had a hard time hitting fastballs. He could have been playing with an injury that we just don't know about or he stop trying hard after he got that fat contract that the Cubs gave him like 2 years ago.

Or maybe, he was using those Bonds' drugs. Not saying it's a guarantee that he did but you never know. 

[Inside Pitch]

11 minutes ago, JustATroutFan said:

I've heard that he's had a hard time hitting fastballs. He could have been playing with an injury that we just don't know about or he stop trying hard after he got that fat contract that the Cubs gave him like 2 years ago.

Or maybe, he was using those Bonds' drugs. Not saying it's a guarantee that he did but you never know. 

Nah, I think you had it right and he was just never that good offensively....   

I was being a wise ass more than anything when I posted but since I've kind of derailed the "why does AP suck now" conversation I guess I'll offer an actual opinion...   Heyward was always more about projection than production -- people expected him to continue to get better and because of his size and tools, they saw it as a given he would continue to improve.  His career best season came his rookie year when he put up a 131 OPS+.   From that point on he never topped 117.  A lot of his future value was based on his speed and defense -- the defense has sort of held up but the steals have fallen off a cliff.

He's still young, he's got all the tools but father time forgives no one.

 

[JustATroutFan]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

Nah, I think you had it right and he was just never that good offensively....   

I was being a wise ass more than anything when I posted but since I've kind of derailed the "why does AP suck now" conversation I guess I'll offer an actual opinion...   Heyward was always more about projection than production -- people expected him to continue to get better and because of his size and tools, they saw it as a given he would continue to improve.  His career best season came his rookie year when he put up a 131 OPS+.   From that point on he never topped 117.  A lot of his future value was based on his speed and defense -- the defense has sort of held up but the steals have fallen off a cliff.

He's still young, he's got all the tools but father time forgives no one.

 

Yeah, I never thought he was that good offensively outside of his rookie season in 2010. He didn't get that fat contract because he was hitting like Trout or anything like that.  If someone consistently put up an OPS+ of at least 170 or better in like 5-6 seasons and did what Heyward has done with the Cubs so far, at lot of people would be be suspicious that he did the Bonds' drugs. 

The two biggest reasons why he got that fat contract was because of his defense and speed, like you mentioned. And that was why his WAR was pretty high for someone who wasn't that good of a hitter outside of 2010. I remember posting that Trout changed the game of baseball in how people look at a player's value before giving him a big contract the day that Heyward signed that big contract with the Cubs. That would be WAR. Years ago, Heyward would never have gotten that contract that the Cubs gave him. 

 

[CubsFan]

38 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

One mystery at a time...   

I'm still trying to figure out how a player supposedly in his prime, staying in the same league and division could fall off a cliff like Jason Heyward has...    Only 26 years old when he became a Cub... he went from a 117 OPS+ to 68.    His career prior to joining Chicago saw him put up a 114 OPS+, since then it's dropped to 76.   

At least with AP, he was older, had foot problems and well there was a league shift and the dreaded marine layer associated with Angel Stadium ...  Heyward by comparison moved to a more hitter friendly environment at a time when the rest of the division got markedly weaker.

Maybe it was the change in managers...

 

 

No one likes heyward.  Had one big year in Atlanta and Theo made a huge mistake.

hes unmovable.  I wish he would leave but he won't.

but he's nowhere as good as Pujols ever was so not a good comparison.