Albert Pujols Production Drop Off (St. Louis compared to Angels)

[101halo]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, this. Or we can look at Fangraphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1177&position=1B#platediscipline

Check out how his O-swing% (swinging at pitches outside the zone) increased from 2007 on, going from 17.3% in 2007 to a career high of 35.6% in 2012, his first year as an Angel. It then leveled off slightly below that. 

In other words, Albert was swinging up 1.5 to 2x as many bad pitches as an Angel as he did as a Cardinal.

My question is: in six years, why has this not been addressed?

I wonder if Scioscia and Pujols were a perfect storm of bad fit. Angels have long had a history of "make contact, make the defense make a play." Dipoto and Eppler have a higher regard for OBP, but wonder if that has larger impact on internal prospects than FA. 

Not blaming Scioscia, at end of the day Pujols owns his own results. Just wondering if that combo plus lower half injuries made an unlucky pairing. Pujols was in decline phase, undoubtedly, but would it have been less painful in a different situation? 

[Angelsjunky]

@Dochalo, ok, fair enough. That makes more sense than that he just willfully refuses to change.

Oh wait, maybe that's the problem? I'm too lazy to look up the numbers, but it has been noted that he's better in the clutch because he seems like he cares more about not making an out than hitting an HR. It almost seems like he decided he'd rather hit .250 with 30+ HR than .290 with 20 HR. I'd have preferred the latter.

By the way, I was that dude that said that about Kotchman. And why not? He was so tentative, so meek. A bit more aggression and he might have been something.

I hope you're right about Trout, but I think we need to see how he ages. Votto is amazing.

[CubsFan]

Good article on Pujols age when Miami was trying to get him after the Cards:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/2011/11/21/2577356/how-old-is-albert-pujols

[fan_since79]

I'd be happy if they just get him out of the cleanup spot and the everyday lineup.

But.....Scioscia.

 

 

[tdawg87]

This thread got good.

[stormngt]

24 minutes ago, ThomasSutpen said:

Is it true that Arte refused to give Trout a longer contract because he is so dumb he cant tell the difference between an older than he reports PED guy and freaking Mickey Mantle? Trout is gonna end up going to the hall as a Phillie thanks to Pujols. In this context, Pujols is easily the worst thing to ever happen to the Angels. He is the main reason they wont win shit while Trout is here and the main reason Trout is a free agent soon.

Pujols is just awful I cant stand him. Get him out of here ASAP.

Can anyone really be worse than Hamilton?

[Stradling]

This is a typical Albert thread.   It’s Alberts fault Trout will leave.  Albert is older than he says he is.  Blah blah blah.  If you blame Albert for Trout then you’re probably biased and absolutely wrong.  As for the age thing I understand why people think that, but it just doesn’t pass the smell test.   The last thing I wanted to do when I graduated high school was to go back to high school for TWO more years.   Why not just one more year?   

[stormngt]

4 hours ago, CubsFan said:

Good article on Pujols age when Miami was trying to get him after the Cards:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/2011/11/21/2577356/how-old-is-albert-pujols

That was article had the worst logic possible.  Outside of the fact that Pujols declined faster than people expected and he is Dominican there is no evidence about him being older than advertised.  

They used the logic that Pujols was too good at the age if 20 to be 20?  Based on that logic should we speculate that Trout is older than advertised?

[Second Base]

12 minutes ago, SuperTroopers said:

This is a typical Albert thread.   It’s Alberts fault Trout will leave.  Albert is older than he says he is.  Blah blah blah.  If you blame Albert for Trout then you’re probably biased and absolutely wrong.  As for the age thing I understand why people think that, but it just doesn’t pass the smell test.   The last thing I wanted to do when I graduated high school was to go back to high school for TWO more years.   Why not just one more year?   

It's the same reason why Vlad Guerrero and dozens of other kids from the DR fudge their birth certificate. If you're hitting the ball 450 feet and throwing 90 mph at 16, you'll make millions in a signing bonus. If you're doing it at 18, you might get 10K and one year at the academy to develop.

As for the Pujols hate, no thanks. I think it's ridiculous to blame him if Trout doesn't sign a mega-extension. In fact I think by the same logic we should credit Pujols' mentoring and influential role in the clubhouse if Trout does sign an extension.

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

@Dochalo, ok, fair enough. That makes more sense than that he just willfully refuses to change.

Oh wait, maybe that's the problem? I'm too lazy to look up the numbers, but it has been noted that he's better in the clutch because he seems like he cares more about not making an out than hitting an HR. It almost seems like he decided he'd rather hit .250 with 30+ HR than .290 with 20 HR. I'd have preferred the latter.

By the way, I was that dude that said that about Kotchman. And why not? He was so tentative, so meek. A bit more aggression and he might have been something.

I hope you're right about Trout, but I think we need to see how he ages. Votto is amazing.

HAHA!  that was you?  I think I was one of the only people defending your logic.  

totally agree with your 'oh wait' paragraph.  It was an interesting choice really.  I think the stadium and his health/fitness had something to do with that as well.  What's the point of him gapping hits and trying to leg out a double on his fragile base.  He's likely going to turn those into singles.  The numbers also bear out that he's one of the most adversely affected by the shit with a wRC+ of 51 over 1171 PA since 2011.  There have only been 17 players with more than 1000 PA vs the shift since 2011.  Only Brian McCann is worse with a wRC+ of 37.   (not sure I trust the fangraphs data though so take for what it's worth).  

So maybe he did evolve to some degree.  Just not in the way we would have hoped.  

Speaking of evolving, Trout is entering his age 26 season.  Where does he go with his game?  Move avg?  More XBH?  A little more of both?  

[Second Base]

6 minutes ago, stormngt said:

That was article had the worst logic possible.  Outside of the fact that Pujols declined faster than people expected and he is Dominican there is no evidence about him being older than advertised.  

They used the logic that Pujols was too good at the age if 20 to be 20?  Based on that logic should we speculate that Trout is older than advertised?

Also told his wife a different age, also showed up in middle America claiming to be 16 with a goatee and a man's body. When combined with the "early regression", followed by the steep cliff, litany of injuries typically associated with older players, as well as the well documented history of kids from the DR doing this, and you begin to see a picture painted...

It doesn't make Albert a bad guy at all. Vladdy did the same thing and the baseball world was very understanding and it was out of the news cycle as quickly as it came. Now he's in the HOF, a national hero and one of the most beloved Angels of all time.

But then again, I suppose Mark McGwire was just a naturally incredibly strong dude that got himself on a good workout regimen.

[Stradling]

10 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

It's the same reason why Vlad Guerrero and dozens of other kids from the DR fudge their birth certificate. If you're hitting the ball 450 feet and throwing 90 mph at 16, you'll make millions in a signing bonus. If you're doing it at 18, you might get 10K and one year at the academy to develop.

As for the Pujols hate, no thanks. I think it's ridiculous to blame him if Trout doesn't sign a mega-extension. In fact I think by the same logic we should credit Pujols' mentoring and influential role in the clubhouse if Trout does sign an extension.

Well that didn’t work out so well for him considering he was so good he went to a juco after his two extra years of high school.   Then he was so good he ended up getting drafted in the 13th round.  

[Second Base]

12 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

HAHA!  that was you?  I think I was one of the only people defending your logic.  

totally agree with your 'oh wait' paragraph.  It was an interesting choice really.  I think the stadium and his health/fitness had something to do with that as well.  What's the point of him gapping hits and trying to leg out a double on his fragile base.  He's likely going to turn those into singles.  The numbers also bear out that he's one of the most adversely affected by the shit with a wRC+ of 51 over 1171 PA since 2011.  There have only been 17 players with more than 1000 PA vs the shift since 2011.  Only Brian McCann is worse with a wRC+ of 37.   (not sure I trust the fangraphs data though so take for what it's worth).  

So maybe he did evolve to some degree.  Just not in the way we would have hoped.  

Speaking of evolving, Trout is entering his age 26 season.  Where does he go with his game?  Move avg?  More XBH?  A little more of both?  

I know a lot of people adversely affected by the shit.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Scotty@AW said:

Also told his wife a different age, also showed up in middle America claiming to be 16 with a goatee and a man's body. When combined with the "early regression", followed by the steep cliff, litany of injuries typically associated with older players, as well as the well documented history of kids from the DR doing this, and you begin to see a picture painted...

It doesn't make Albert a bad guy at all. Vladdy did the same thing and the baseball world was very understanding and it was out of the news cycle as quickly as it came. Now he's in the HOF, a national hero and one of the most beloved Angels of all time.

But then again, I suppose Mark McGwire was just a naturally incredibly strong dude that got himself on a good workout regimen.

So which was it?  Did he have a mans body at 16 or was he big a doughy at 18 like the initial scouting report said?

[Second Base]

2 minutes ago, SuperTroopers said:

Well that didn’t work out so well for him considering he was so good he went to a juco after his two extra years of high school.   Then he was so good he ended up getting drafted in the 13th round.  

There's also a difference in the path of a stateside player and an international signee. An 18 year old signing in the DR might get a year to show he belongs, because most of them are 16 or 17. An 18 year old in the states has a bit more leeway to develop.

[Second Base]

5 minutes ago, SuperTroopers said:

So which was it?  Did he have a mans body at 16 or was he big a doughy at 18 like the initial scouting report said?

You've never seen a doughy man before? 

[CubsFan]

9 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

You've never seen a doughy man before? 

[Stradling]

6 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

You've never seen a doughy man before? 

Yes.   But when you say he looks like a man at 16 you weren’t saying he looked like a fat man. 

[CubsFan]

30 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

It's the same reason why Vlad Guerrero and dozens of other kids from the DR fudge their birth certificate. If you're hitting the ball 450 feet and throwing 90 mph at 16, you'll make millions in a signing bonus. If you're doing it at 18, you might get 10K and one year at the academy to develop.

As for the Pujols hate, no thanks. I think it's ridiculous to blame him if Trout doesn't sign a mega-extension. In fact I think by the same logic we should credit Pujols' mentoring and influential role in the clubhouse if Trout does sign an extension.

Perhaps Trout stole Pujols soul and energy thus making him an even better player.  So the Pujol's contract wasn't a complete waste.  I think that was the plot behind Space Jam but never saw that movie.

[eligrba]

At this point in his career, I have to believe that Albert is beginning to consider his legacy and how he will be remembered as a player.  Grounding out to a shortstop playing in left field has got to affect his ego.....

 

I am not sure which is worse, paying Pujols to play or paying Pujols to not play.

[nate]

[Angel Oracle]

2 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

Also told his wife a different age, also showed up in middle America claiming to be 16 with a goatee and a man's body. When combined with the "early regression", followed by the steep cliff, litany of injuries typically associated with older players, as well as the well documented history of kids from the DR doing this, and you begin to see a picture painted...

It doesn't make Albert a bad guy at all. Vladdy did the same thing and the baseball world was very understanding and it was out of the news cycle as quickly as it came. Now he's in the HOF, a national hero and one of the most beloved Angels of all time.

But then again, I suppose Mark McGwire was just a naturally incredibly strong dude that got himself on a good workout regimen.

Agreed, it just underscores NOT signing any Latin American player to a real long contract when his “listed” age is early 30s.

Arte Moreno/Dipussy crapped the couch on that one, and then compounded it with Hackilton.

But that was 6 years ago.   Each year that passes lessens to negative impact.

Gotra hope for one solid year and one decent year from Pujols, and then maybe Bonilla the $59 million due in 2020-21 over say 7 years and he retires after 2019.   Gives them $14 million extra to work with for 2021, for Trout’s new contract.

On the subject of career .300 BA, Pujols would need to hit .252 over the next 1000 at bats to have a .300 career BA. That could be doable if he can somehow hit say .265 this season.

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

HAHA!  that was you?  I think I was one of the only people defending your logic.  

totally agree with your 'oh wait' paragraph.  It was an interesting choice really.  I think the stadium and his health/fitness had something to do with that as well.  What's the point of him gapping hits and trying to leg out a double on his fragile base.  He's likely going to turn those into singles.  The numbers also bear out that he's one of the most adversely affected by the shit with a wRC+ of 51 over 1171 PA since 2011.  There have only been 17 players with more than 1000 PA vs the shift since 2011.  Only Brian McCann is worse with a wRC+ of 37.   (not sure I trust the fangraphs data though so take for what it's worth).  

So maybe he did evolve to some degree.  Just not in the way we would have hoped.  

Speaking of evolving, Trout is entering his age 26 season.  Where does he go with his game?  Move avg?  More XBH?  A little more of both?  

When was that Kotchman bit? 7, 8 years ago?

As for your last question, who knows. The lack of strikeouts this Spring is probably just an outlier, but intriguing considering the fact that his Ks have been trending down and his walks up for several years. I suspect we may have a .320+ BA in store for us this year. .320/.450/.650 suits me just fine.

[JustATroutFan]

If Trout's BABIP was in the .340-.350 range, I think his batting average last year would have been like .330? He got unlucky last year when it came to BABIP by his standards. One of my goals for Trout this year is for him to hit at the very least .320. He hasn't done that since 2013. 

[stormngt]

3 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

Also told his wife a different age, also showed up in middle America claiming to be 16 with a goatee and a man's body. When combined with the "early regression", followed by the steep cliff, litany of injuries typically associated with older players, as well as the well documented history of kids from the DR doing this, and you begin to see a picture painted...

It doesn't make Albert a bad guy at all. Vladdy did the same thing and the baseball world was very understanding and it was out of the news cycle as quickly as it came. Now he's in the HOF, a national hero and one of the most beloved Angels of all time.

But then again, I suppose Mark McGwire was just a naturally incredibly strong dude that got himself on a good workout regimen.

I know 15 year olds with goatee's.

If he was so old competing against HS students why didn't he dominate so much yo not get a major college scholarship offer? 

Can't explain his wife's comments.  I need to know the context or is it third party gossip?