Albert Pujols Production Drop Off (St. Louis compared to Angels)

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

It could be steroids, but he dropped off at a very normal rate in conjunction with his age, so probably not.

I think it simply comes down to age really. The Cards had him in his twenties, we'll have him for his thirties.

This is not true, Scotty. Albert's decline was very unusual for a player of his caliber, unless you add 2-4 years to his age. Then it makes more sense. But the vast majority of great players do not decline as rapidly and steeply as Albert did from age 30-33ish. If you adjust his age up by +3, his decline from 2010 on better suits a great player age 33+.

As for the OP's question, I think it is a combination of league, injury, age-related decline, and possibly more nefarious reasons: steroids and/or him possibly being older than advertised.

I would also add overwhelming pride and a willful stubbornness to make adjustments, and instead focus on the long-ball at the expense of just being a good hitter. 

 

[Inside Pitch]

29 minutes ago, CubsFan said:

No one likes heyward.  Had one big year in Atlanta and Theo made a huge mistake.

hes unmovable.  I wish he would leave but he won't.

but he's nowhere as good as Pujols ever was so not a good comparison.

Wasn't making a comparison....   But it is the better question....     

Everyone expected AP to decline -- the dude was 32, he was moving to the AL and to a pitchers park.   Barring an injured testicle his decline was guaranteed. 

Heyward falling off the cliff during his prime years is IMO a bigger surprise although not really a shock.

[CubsFan]

31 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Wasn't making a comparison....   But it is the better question....     

Everyone expected AP to decline -- the dude was 32, he was moving to the AL and to a pitchers park.   Barring an injured testicle his decline was guaranteed. 

Heyward falling off the cliff during his prime years is IMO a bigger surprise although not really a shock.

I don't think it's surprising at all.  He's a career 260 hitter.  He's 6 foot five 240 lbs and has hit over 20 home runs only once in his career.  That in itself says that there's something flawed about his hitting.  In 8 years he's only hit over 14 homeruns twice.   Those are huge red flags to me.

Yeah defensively he's pretty good but offensively he's an easy out and you can't have that when you have lineups like the Dodgers, Astros and Nationals.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heywaja01.shtml

[bloodbrother]

Albert stopped using HGH much to the dismay of Angels fans

[AngelsLakersFan]

Albert Pujols 

May 1999 Scouting Report by Russ Bove (link)

Heavy, bulky body. Extra wgt. on lower half. Future Wgt. problem. Aggressive hitter with mistake HR power. Tends to be a hacker. Chases. Running speed from Mike Farrel. Soft hands. Throws easy. Accurate arm. Moves better than size indicates. 

 

That doesn't sound all that inaccurate now.

[beatlesrule]

UGH.  Another AP stinks thread.  There is no way age played a factor if Pujols really was 32 when he signed.  He fell off a cliff when he signed with the Angels compared to what he was doing in St. Louis.  Also, I have not read any article or heard anyone explain how his plate discipline could just vanish all of a sudden.  I get that power can diminish over time but how in the world do you go from hitting in the 300s and getting on base to hitting in the 200s and swinging at terrible pitches??

[JustATroutFan]

Actually, steroids DOES help improve eye vision. I'm hoping Pujols wasn't on those Bonds' drugs but you just never know. He might have been on it but we don't know for sure. It could explain why he does not walk that much anymore but it's hard to tell for sure if Pujols did the Bonds' drugs.

[Stradling]

So Albert isn’t walking anymore because he isn’t taking “Bonds drugs”.   Sometimes this place is about as dumb as a box of rocks.   

[Docwaukee]

Albert never had great plate discipline.  It was good.  But not great.  The highest number of unintentional walks he's ever had in a season is 77.  That's the biggest misunderstanding of who he was/is as a hitter.  

Albert was one of the greatest RHed hitters the game has ever seen.  His bat speed and plate coverage was legendary.  He used to be able to hit any pitch in the strike zone for an xbh to any part of the field.  That was his gift.  But it was never patience.  

As he aged, he stopped evolving as a hitter.  Who knows whether it was stubbornness, being older than his stated age, steroids, injuries, being in poor shape or some combo of them all.  The pitches he used to be able to hit out of the park became outs.  Yet he continued to swing at them.  Continues to swing at them.  

I've said many times that he's an outlier for inner circle HOFers due to his swift decline.  But the more I look, the more I see guys who were similar.  Albert was injured in 2013 but was still a 3 WAR player through age 35.   Which is actually difficult to do as a 1b/DH.  Other 1bmen with similar decline include Eddie Matthews and Jimmie Foxx.  But those guys just stopped playing because they didn't have the financial motivation to keep going.  

While i'm out there with predicting this will be Albert's second best season as a halo, that would require him to have a season of 2.8 fWAR or better as a 38 yo.   A feat accomplished only about 60 times in baseball history (2.8 WAR or better at age 38).  12 times as a 1bman.  9 times as a DH.  

So what we've seen is actually pretty expected.  

[Kevin]

37 minutes ago, SuperTroopers said:

So Albert isn’t walking anymore because he isn’t taking “Bonds drugs”.   Sometimes this place is about as dumb as a box of rocks.   

That's extremely insulting. 

 

 

For the box of rocks. 

[JustATroutFan]

I never said it was a sure shot that Pujols was taking the Bonds' drugs. I said that "he might have been". 

[JustATroutFan]

Maybe you should learn how to read because I never said it was a sure shot that Pujols did the Bonds' drugs.

[Stradling]

9 minutes ago, JustATroutFan said:

Maybe you should learn how to read because I never said it was a sure shot that Pujols did the Bonds' drugs.

Well you say a lot of really dumb things so I was merely cutting through your crap. 

[tdawg87]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Albert never had great plate discipline.  It was good.  But not great.  The highest number of unintentional walks he's ever had in a season is 77.  That's the biggest misunderstanding of who he was/is as a hitter.  

Albert was one of the greatest RHed hitters the game has ever seen.  His bat speed and plate coverage was legendary.  He used to be able to hit any pitch in the strike zone for an xbh to any part of the field.  That was his gift.  But it was never patience.  

As he aged, he stopped evolving as a hitter.  Who knows whether it was stubbornness, being older than his stated age, steroids, injuries, being in poor shape or some combo of them all.  The pitches he used to be able to hit out of the park became outs.  Yet he continued to swing at them.  Continues to swing at them.  

I've said many times that he's an outlier for inner circle HOFers due to his swift decline.  But the more I look, the more I see guys who were similar.  Albert was injured in 2013 but was still a 3 WAR player through age 35.   Which is actually difficult to do as a 1b/DH.  Other 1bmen with similar decline include Eddie Matthews and Jimmie Foxx.  But those guys just stopped playing because they didn't have the financial motivation to keep going.  

While i'm out there with predicting this will be Albert's second best season as a halo, that would require him to have a season of 2.8 fWAR or better as a 38 yo.   A feat accomplished only about 60 times in baseball history (2.8 WAR or better at age 38).  12 times as a 1bman.  9 times as a DH.  

So what we've seen is actually pretty expected.  

I don't agree that patience = plate discipline. It's certainly a huge part of it, but so is swinging at good pitches and not swinging at bad ones. Pujols did that as well as anyone. 10 straight years of having more walks than K's.

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

So what we've seen is actually pretty expected.  

Good post, but you're exagerrating. At most it has been the worst possible expected outcome, and even that is pushing it. No one expected Albert to fall off a cliff like he did, and very few great hitters decline as extremely as he did. Add Griffey to your list...but there aren't many if any more of similar caliber, and a couple dozen with slower declines.

Dialing back to 2012, a pessimistic outlook would have been to expect more of 2011's production for a couple more years before a slow decline. Most of us thought we'd at least get a year or two like 2010 before several years of 2011. Instead 2012 was below 2011 production, and that was the best we've seen. It is one of the worst baseball contracts in history.

 

[Angelsjunky]

5 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I don't agree that patience = plate discipline. It's certainly a huge part of it, but so is swinging at good pitches and not swinging at bad ones. Pujols did that as well as anyone. 10 straight years of having more walks than K's.

Yes, this. Or we can look at Fangraphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1177&position=1B#platediscipline

Check out how his O-swing% (swinging at pitches outside the zone) increased from 2007 on, going from 17.3% in 2007 to a career high of 35.6% in 2012, his first year as an Angel. It then leveled off slightly below that. 

In other words, Albert was swinging up 1.5 to 2x as many bad pitches as an Angel as he did as a Cardinal.

My question is: in six years, why has this not been addressed?

[Docwaukee]

38 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, this. Or we can look at Fangraphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1177&position=1B#platediscipline

Check out how his O-swing% (swinging at pitches outside the zone) increased from 2007 on, going from 17.3% in 2007 to a career high of 35.6% in 2012, his first year as an Angel. It then leveled off slightly below that. 

In other words, Albert was swinging up 1.5 to 2x as many bad pitches as an Angel as he did as a Cardinal.

My question is: in six years, why has this not been addressed?

the thing you failed to point out is that he is only swinging a little more often overall.  His swing % has increased by about 4% which is about 10% of his total.  

Pitches per PA as a cardinal?  3.84

Pitches per PA as a Halo? 3.80

He actually doesn't swing a ton.  

Again, he just makes more outs now.  Why?  because he's starting his swing just a shade earlier cuz he's older, fatter and more injured which has made his bat slower.  

I was a big believer that he's changed his approach but the more I look at the numbers, the more I realize he hasn't.  

Remember when some dude came to the board and started a thread stating that Kotchman needed to strike out more?  

That's actually been Albert's biggest problem.  Weak contact.  Yes, he's swinging a bit more, but it's not so much that he's swinging at more pitches out of the zone, but he's actually making contact with them.  And with his speed or lack thereof, he may as well strike out.  

His lack of discipline isn't because he's changed his approach.   It always been to swing at stuff he thinks he can hit hard.  He's still doing that.  

He's quite the case study in terms of evaluating players and their potential decline rate.  Miggy is gong down a similar path whereas guys like Votto and Trout are going to age way way better.  

 

 

[Lou]

7 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

One mystery at a time...   

I'm still trying to figure out how a player supposedly in his prime, staying in the same league and division could fall off a cliff like Jason Heyward has...    Only 26 years old when he became a Cub... he went from a 117 OPS+ to 68.    His career prior to joining Chicago saw him put up a 114 OPS+, since then it's dropped to 76.   

At least with AP, he was older, had foot problems and well there was a league shift and the dreaded marine layer associated with Angel Stadium ...  Heyward by comparison moved to a more hitter friendly environment at a time when the rest of the division got markedly weaker.

Maybe it was the change in managers...

 

 

This is what happens when you commit to UCLA and sign a pro contract instead

[JarsOfClay]

6 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Albert Pujols 

May 1999 Scouting Report by Russ Bove (link)

Heavy, bulky body. Extra wgt. on lower half. Future Wgt. problem. Aggressive hitter with mistake HR power. Tends to be a hacker. Chases. Running speed from Mike Farrel. Soft hands. Throws easy. Accurate arm. Moves better than size indicates. 

That doesn't sound all that inaccurate now.

He had to be on steroids.  I mean he went from a nothing prospect to one of the greatest right handed hitters of all time.  And he pretty much did it while going from single A to the big leagues, lol WTF?

 

 

[JarsOfClay]

10 hours ago, CubsFan said:

I guess what I was wondering is if change in leagues or divisions had something to do with it.  Normally you would think going to the AL would be an advantage since you now have an extra bat upgrade behind you at DH instead of pitcher.

OR perhaps cubs/reds/pirates/brewers are more hitter friendly teams and parks than rangers/mariners/astros/a's/

and what about angels park itself is that somehow detrimental to Pujols games compared to Busch stadium?  On first glance it would seem the opposite.  But then an extreme example of park advantage for a certain type of hitter would be Fenway.

If you look at his 2011 season, he was already showing signs of decline before he even got here.  He also had a known foot issue, but Arte Morono gave him that huge contract anyways for.....some.....reason.

Also, the rest of the league was just starting to follow Joe Maddon's lead and use the shift on Pujols a lot more frequently just as he became an angel.  And that became the death of his batting avg.

[Ohtaniland]

28 minutes ago, JarsOfClay said:

He had to be on steroids.  I mean he went from a nothing prospect to one of the greatest right handed hitters of all time.  And he pretty much did it while going from single A to the big leagues, lol WTF?

 

 

I believe that he was most likely using supplements that were legal at the time of usage so he did nothing to break any rules. His body breaking down so quickly is proof enough for me. We got old broken down Albert but that’s on Arte Steinbrenner. 

[tdawg87]

Claude I'm surprised at you. This thread is like pea soup and maple syrup to you and you've barely posted.

You feeling ok man?

[Ohtaniland]

13 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Claude I'm surprised at you. This thread is like pea soup and maple syrup to you and you've barely posted.

You feeling ok man?

I fapped at the thread title,  I’m tired now.

[Inside Pitch]

27 minutes ago, JarsOfClay said:

He had to be on steroids.  I mean he went from a nothing prospect to one of the greatest right handed hitters of all time.  And he pretty much did it while going from single A to the big leagues, lol WTF?

Albert Pujols was a sabermetric super prospect after his one season in the Midwest league...  The league average ops that season was under .700 -- he was over .950 and in a severe pitchers park at the time.   John Benson and Tony Blengino, some of the earliest prospect saber types had him among the top three prospects in mlb. 

Where Baseball America and other scouting first lists had guys like Sean Burroughs and Corey Patterson as the sure thing uber prospects Blengino and company weighed their rankings based on age .vs league, and park/league adjusted data.... They couldn't stop talking him up but even they didn't see him making the jump to mlb so fast.

 

[Second Base]

9 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

This is not true, Scotty. Albert's decline was very unusual for a player of his caliber, unless you add 2-4 years to his age. Then it makes more sense. But the vast majority of great players do not decline as rapidly and steeply as Albert did from age 30-33ish. If you adjust his age up by +3, his decline from 2010 on better suits a great player age 33+.

As for the OP's question, I think it is a combination of league, injury, age-related decline, and possibly more nefarious reasons: steroids and/or him possibly being older than advertised.

I would also add overwhelming pride and a willful stubbornness to make adjustments, and instead focus on the long-ball at the expense of just being a good hitter. 

 

I subscribe to the theory that Albert is a couple years older than he really is. It's just too convenient that he showed up stateside when he did, and just happened to go to a community college not far out of St. Louis (no one leaves the DR for the Midwest), and just happened to be drafted by the Cardinals. Then there's the fact that he told his wife he was two years older than his reported age when they first met.

So yes, I think Albert Pujols is actually 40, not 38. And if we assume he's 40, then Pujols HAS aged at a very normal rate just as I said he did.