Cespedes anyone?

[19HALO71]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/10/latest-on-mets-after-wild-card-loss-yo-walker-bruce-duda.html

If he becomes available, how much and for how long would you offer?

The guy mashes and has a 155mm Howitzer for an arm.

I say "Yes".

Current contract per Cots.

Yoenis Cespedes lf
3 years/$75M (2016-18)

• 3 years/$75M (2016-18)
  • re-signed by NY Mets as a free agent 1/26/16
  • $10M signing bonus
  • 16:$17.5M, 17:$23.75M, 18:$23.75M
  • Cespedes may opt out of contract after 2016 season
  • full no-trade protection

Go Halos!!!

[totdprods]

I would pass. Good player and if we had about $20m more payroll flexibility I would take that gamble, but it's too much of a commitment in dollars and years at this point, and limits our ability to improve SP, RP, and overall financial depth and flexibility. A cheaper option would still represent a sizable improvement in LF without the risk. Also, Calhoun produced more WAR than Cespedes, which I found interesting and a bit surprising.

[19HALO71]

I'm curious.

If he opts out of a contract, do the Mets still have the ability of giving him a qualifying offer? If not, this may be an opportunity to acquire a couple of quality pieces without losing the protected draft pick.

Go Halos!!!

[Glen]

I have no doubt that if we signed him he'd be our next Mo Vaughn.

[mulwin444]

4 minutes ago, Glen said:

I have no doubt that if we signed him he'd be our next Mo Vaughn.

Its spelled "Moo Vaughn"

Yeah, he's seeking 5 years so tough call.  An outfield of Cespedes, Trout, and Calhoun would be pretty damn impressive along with a line-up of:

1)  Escobar

2)  Calhoun

3)  Trout

4)  Cespedes

5)  Pujols

would score some runs but a 34-35-ish Cespedes would probably suck the last two years of the deal.

If there is no pick attached to his signing, I imagine Arte might be tempted.

[totdprods]

You could run Jefry Marte out there for a full season and come close to the same line. Defense won't be as good, and yeah, it's silly think he'd be as good with a bat, but the difference isn't worth the $20m+ in salary that would separate them.

Cespedes: .280/.354/.530/.884 133 OPS+
Marte: .252/.310/.530/.790 115 OPS+

And in 3 seasons with Oakland, Cespedes' line was basically Marte : .262/.318/.470/.788

Better use of money elsewhere. You could get two or three cheap vets at LF, a range of SP, and maybe have enough for cheap help at 2B/RP for same money, or go big on a closer and still have enough to add one other FA at LF or a cheaper SP. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

I doubt 3 years will be enough to get him. I would love to see him in LF though, we would have possibly the best outfield in baseball. Our offense would be improved greatly also. We would become a contender as soon as the ink dried on the contract.

[mulwin444]

4 minutes ago, totdprods said:

You could run Jefry Marte out there for a full season and come close to the same line. Defense won't be as good, and yeah, it's silly think he'd be as good with a bat, but the difference isn't worth the $20m+ in salary that would separate them.

Cespedes: .280/.354/.530/.884 133 OPS+
Marte: .252/.310/.530/.790 115 OPS+

And in 3 seasons with Oakland, Cespedes and Marte were basically the same: .262/.318/.470/.788

Better use of money elsewhere.

And I think that's where they eventually go.  Marte didn't distinguish himself until the last 2 months of the year:

 

Months

Direct Link  · Glossary  · SHARE  · Embed  · CSV  · Export  · PRE  · LINK  · ?

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
May	4	2	10	10	1	6	3	0	1	3	0	0	0	4	.600	.600	1.200	1.800	12	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.000	343	378
June	25	17	79	74	7	15	1	0	3	9	0	1	4	19	.203	.241	.338	.578	25	2	0	0	1	0	0	.226	48	52
July	18	11	48	44	9	10	3	0	2	8	0	1	2	8	.227	.292	.432	.723	19	3	2	0	0	0	2	.235	84	96
August	20	19	69	62	9	18	3	0	5	13	1	0	4	15	.290	.333	.581	.914	36	2	1	0	2	0	0	.295	128	139
Sept/Oct	21	20	78	68	12	16	4	0	4	11	1	0	8	13	.235	.333	.471	.804	32	1	2	0	0	0	1	.235	105	118

but those 2 months make him an intriguing 2017 option and worth a look in LF.  He needs to focus on the OF though because they can't have a complete butcher out there.

 

[ELEVEN]

26 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

Its spelled "Moo Vaughn"

Yeah, he's seeking 5 years so tough call.  An outfield of Cespedes, Trout, and Calhoun would be pretty damn impressive along with a line-up of:

1)  Escobar

2)  Calhoun

3)  Trout

4)  Cespedes

5)  Pujols

would score some runs but a 34-35-ish Cespedes would probably suck the last two years of the deal.

If there is no pick attached to his signing, I imagine Arte might be tempted.

That was years ago. It's time to moo vaughn.

[tomsred]

52 minutes ago, 19HALO71 said:

I'm curious.

If he opts out of a contract, do the Mets still have the ability of giving him a qualifying offer? If not, this may be an opportunity to acquire a couple of quality pieces without losing the protected draft pick.

Go Halos!!!

But we would still lose the #2 draft pick, and if we are serious about building a farm system we might need that #2 pick.  I think Cespedes is over priced.  I'm with totdprods, we can do pretty well with a less expensive option.

[Second Base]

With Cespedes, you'd be making the same mistake as Pujols and Hamilton. Signing a player and paying him for what he accomplished in his 20's, not what he's going to accomplish in his 30's.

Free agency is a good tool to use with a protected pick, but it has to be the right sort of player. Preferably one still in his 20's, that's multi-dimensional and can be slotted in different places in the lineup or at different positions.

You may not find a player that checks all those boxes, but maybe one close. Fowler comes to mind.

[beatlesrule]

Not gonna happen.

[totdprods]

13 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

And I think that's where they eventually go.  Marte didn't distinguish himself until the last 2 months of the year:

 

Months

Direct Link  · Glossary  · SHARE  · Embed  · CSV  · Export  · PRE  · LINK  · ?

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
May	4	2	10	10	1	6	3	0	1	3	0	0	0	4	.600	.600	1.200	1.800	12	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.000	343	378
June	25	17	79	74	7	15	1	0	3	9	0	1	4	19	.203	.241	.338	.578	25	2	0	0	1	0	0	.226	48	52
July	18	11	48	44	9	10	3	0	2	8	0	1	2	8	.227	.292	.432	.723	19	3	2	0	0	0	2	.235	84	96
August	20	19	69	62	9	18	3	0	5	13	1	0	4	15	.290	.333	.581	.914	36	2	1	0	2	0	0	.295	128	139
Sept/Oct	21	20	78	68	12	16	4	0	4	11	1	0	8	13	.235	.333	.471	.804	32	1	2	0	0	0	1	.235	105	118

but those 2 months make him an intriguing 2017 option and worth a look in LF.  He needs to focus on the OF though because they can't have a complete butcher out there.

 

I thought he showed some improvement out there the last few weeks, enough to make me feel like he has a chance at being an everyday LF. I'm hesitant to go into 2017 with him the ordained everyday LF though, and that's where I think signing a super cheap vet who could transition to 4th OF or be midseason trade bait would be handy. Ease Marte into LF in the first half of '17. He'd 'platoon' well with someone like Jon Jay. 

Important to remember, Marte is still critical depth at 3B, 1B, and DH. If Escobar, Cron, or Pujols get hurt, we have Cowart, Ortega, Pennington, or Choi getting everyday at-bats. So unless we bring in another offensively-oriented CIF, Marte's best fit for depth purposes is still a UT player first couple months of 2017.

[mulwin444]

1 minute ago, totdprods said:

I thought he showed some improvement out there the last few weeks, enough to make me feel like he has a chance at being an everyday LF. I'm hesitant to go into 2017 with him the ordained everyday LF though, and that's where I think signing a super cheap vet who could transition to 4th OF or be midseason trade bait would be handy. Ease Marte into LF in the first half of '17. He'd 'platoon' well with someone like Jon Jay. 

Important to remember, Marte is still critical depth at 3B, 1B, and DH. If Escobar, Cron, or Pujols get hurt, we have Cowart, Ortega, Pennington, or Choi getting everyday at-bats. So unless we bring in another offensively-oriented CIF, Marte's best fit for depth purposes is still a UT player first couple months of 2017.

I don't think you want to ordain him the everyday LF based on two months but I would start him there while acquiring some sort of back-up plan, sure.  While Marte is, right now, a better 3B than OFer, he was never a great defensive 3B so its not like we are losing much with the switch in defensive emphasis.  The thing I liked from Marte was his increase in drawing a walk the past month.  Despite hitting .235, which was effected by a .235 BAbip, he still had a .333 OBP and .804 OPS.  That shows development and he still young enough to potentially learn a new position. 

[m0nkey]

30 minutes ago, ELEVEN said:

That was years ago. It's time to moo vaughn.

I chuckled 

[totdprods]

13 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

I don't think you want to ordain him the everyday LF based on two months but I would start him there while acquiring some sort of back-up plan, sure.  While Marte is, right now, a better 3B than OFer, he was never a great defensive 3B so its not like we are losing much with the switch in defensive emphasis.  The thing I liked from Marte was his increase in drawing a walk the past month.  Despite hitting .235, which was effected by a .235 BAbip, he still had a .333 OBP and .804 OPS.  That shows development and he still young enough to potentially learn a new position. 

Exactly - my biggest concern isn't his defense in LF (or at 3B), it's putting us in another position where our depth kills us just because we didn't acquire another LF during the offseason. There's a good chance Escobar, Pujols, or Cron miss some time, and if that happens, Marte is either moving back away from LF (and then we're back to needing an outfielder) or he remains in LF and we're blessed with extended playing time for guys like Choi, Pennington, and Cowart for an indefinite amount of time. 

That's why I think at the start of '17, Marte's best spot is UT, circling between LF, 3B, 1B, and DH. Come midseason, there's a good chance Escobar and a potential cheap vet LF could be dealt, and now you have the option of putting Marte at either position, and keeps the door open for Cowart, Ortega, whomever should they develop.

[arch stanton]

Assuming the team is willing to spend what Cespedes will command, that money could do a lot more good plugging multiple holes in other areas.

[19HALO71]

1 hour ago, ScottyA_MWAH said:

With Cespedes, you'd be making the same mistake as Pujols and Hamilton. Signing a player and paying him for what he accomplished in his 20's, not what he's going to accomplish in his 30's.

Free agency is a good tool to use with a protected pick, but it has to be the right sort of player. Preferably one still in his 20's, that's multi-dimensional and can be slotted in different places in the lineup or at different positions.

You may not find a player that checks all those boxes, but maybe one close. Fowler comes to mind.

This is where I disagree. I don't believe that Cespedes should be compared to Pujols (11 years before the Angels) or Hamilton (6 years before the angels). As we speak, Cespedes has only played 4 full major league seasons. In Cuba their season is only 90 games long, that's 72 less games a season. So the mileage on Cespedes is limited. I think he maintains his current production for some time.

Go Halos!!!

[Troll Daddy]

No thank you

[totdprods]

20 minutes ago, 19HALO71 said:

This is where I disagree. I don't believe that Cespedes should be compared to Pujols (11 years before the Angels) or Hamilton (6 years before the angels). As we speak, Cespedes has only played 4 full major league seasons. In Cuba their season is only 90 games long, that's 72 less games a season. So the mileage on Cespedes is limited. I think he maintains his current production for some time.

Go Halos!!!

Anyone can hurt at different times, anyone's decline can start quickly. 

Cespedes' biggest issue isn't his health breaking down - it's his enormous cost and how badly it would cripple us if he did decline or get hurt. 

Prior to signing any FA this offseason, the big discussion the front office needs to have is "What if? What would the damage and ramifications be if this player contract went to shit overnight, and how would we able to solve or alleviate any of those issues?"

[ksangel]

Cespedes or Desmond?

Really need to have a legit LF and not another maybe they'll pan out LF.  Marte's defense was brutal in the OF.   

[mulwin444]

38 minutes ago, ksangel said:

Cespedes or Desmond?

Really need to have a legit LF and not another maybe they'll pan out LF.  Marte's defense was brutal in the OF.   

I'm going with neither...Cespedes has already been discussed.  Desmond had a .781 OPS 104 OPS+ playing half his games in Arlington (130 OPS+ at home, 94 OPS+ on the road) and completely cratered the 2nd half of the year (.237 .283 OBP .630 OPS).  If he wants to discuss another 1 year/$8 mil deal, maybe...

[ten ocho recon scout]

3 hours ago, ELEVEN said:

That was years ago. It's time to moo vaughn.

Lol

I just want to give kudos to the OP for saying he has a 1-5-5 howitzer.

"Rounds out, over....splash out, over"

[19HALO71]

18 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Lol

I just want to give kudos to the OP for saying he has a 1-5-5 howitzer.

"Rounds out, over....splash out, over"

Adjust fire over.

Airborne Mortars out!!

High Angle Hell

Go Halos!!!

[AngelsFanSince86]

On 10/6/2016 at 0:27 PM, 19HALO71 said:

This is where I disagree. I don't believe that Cespedes should be compared to Pujols (11 years before the Angels) or Hamilton (6 years before the angels). As we speak, Cespedes has only played 4 full major league seasons. In Cuba their season is only 90 games long, that's 72 less games a season. So the mileage on Cespedes is limited. I think he maintains his current production for some time.

Go Halos!!!

Although this may help him to a degree, it doesn't really work that way.  That is more true for pitchers and IP throughout their lifetime than it is for position players and innings played with the exception of catchers and maybe SS in terms of their defensive value.  The typical "prime" years of baseball players correlates with their actual physical prime.  Just because Cespedes hasn't necessarily played as many innings doesn't mean he is going to last much longer.  Most positions in baseball are not that demanding physically. It has to do with how well his sight, reaction times, fast-twitch muscles, etc. hold up.  Its like Pujols.  His health problems have little to do with baseball.  While playing baseball frequently may exacerbate the issue, the issues themselves stem from genetics.