The Official Los Angeles Angels 2016 MLB Draft Thread

[Blarg]

I am kind of surprised that we are 3 weeks away from the MLB draft, Eppler's first draft of his career as GM and there isn't a whisper of it yet. Now I know some of you guys have already been following prospect reports of potential draftees so let's hear it. Who are you going to pick? I don't think anyone can say which way the Angels are going to move in this draft with almost an entirely new crew but if you are in charge who are you taking with your first rounder. the #20 pick.

According to Baseball Prospectus the #20 player in their field is a High School SS named Delvin Perez. Is it too soon to look at a shortstop when we have 5 years of Simmons under control? At High School age he is probably 4 years from being able to find his way to a backup role but I think there is a more urgent need to fill a roster spot by taking a more polished player to fill a role starting no later than 2018. If that means picking lower to fill that role it may pay off more than just the best player at that draft slot.

I'm thinking that if Bryan Reynolds of Vanderbilt is available (ranked #22) the Angels should go after him. He profiles as a very good defensive center fielder that has a highly regarded hitting approach. Slide him over to left field and problem solved, we then have three ground covering players in the outfield which profiles like the World Series Royals where very few hit balls ever find grass.

 

[m0nkey]

Always go best player available

[Jason]

6 minutes ago, m0nkey said:

Always go best player available

I agree with this. The Angels org has so many needs that the position they take doesn't mean that much. I bet they go with a light hitting catcher though 

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

The MLB draft is the biggest crap shoot as far as draft goes for the big 4 sports in the US.  In the other 3 you're much more likely to see a guy playing from day 1 who is drafted in the first round whereas in baseball some first round picks will flame out in the minors.  I agree that you go best available because the Angels have a terrible farm system and a ton of needs.  Given that it could take years for anyone they draft to make it to the majors you take the best player available and don't try to fill current needs with players who won't be meeting them for years to come.  

[Blarg]

So, who are your choices? Mine is actually damn close to their pick at #20 which means the guy could go a few picks before the Angels depending on other teams needs or be the best guy at that pick. A toolsy High School shortstop is probably not what their farm system needs. The last High School shortstop the Angels picked in the first round had to be converted to a center fielder. What a waste of a pick.

[Chuck]

From Baseball America.

16. Angels: The Angels have also been closely connected to Pennsylvania prep outfielder Alex Kirilloff, but they sorely need to address their lack of pitching depth. The Angels’ unwillingness to exceed the luxury tax threshold, a light 2016-2017 free agent pitching market and the club’s 30th-rated farm system give first-year GM Billy Eppler few avenues to acquiring pitching. Here, the Angels are likely to go after a college arm. Zeuch’s size and command make him a good fit for the Angels’ power-pitching draft approach. PICK: T.J. Zeuch, rhp

Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/mock-draft-3-puk/#a4Qwym3YZPCq8sFW.99

[Chuck]

Alex Kirilloff 1B/OF New Kensington, PA (Liberty)

Kirilloff doesn’t excite you with crazy bat speed or big movements at the plate. He profiles as a solid-average fielder at first or slightly below average outfielder, if he can remain there. His arm is strong, having been clocked as high as 92 from the outfield and 89 off the mound according to Perfect Game, but the long wind-up and inevitable slowing of his feet as he gets bigger leave him with more of an average arm functionally. His raw speed currently is above average, but a slow first step and future strength gains likely leave it as an average to fringe-average tool.

What Kirilloff does do is hit. He has a simple, efficient swing with a bat path built for hitting high line drives and deep fly balls. His bat gets on the plane of the pitch early and stays on it for a long time with great extension through the ball. In Jupiter last weekend, Kirilloff put together some impressive drives and, more importantly, well-executed at-bats throughout multiple games. After winning the Perfect Game Home Run Derby in San Diego a couple months ago, there are still doubts about how much power he will ultimately have. The reservation appears to originate from his low-effort swings at the plate. As his hips start to fire, his hands gently start to descend behind him before accelerating forward and up through the ball, rather than the left arm rolling the elbow underneath to create more a “whippy” look as the hands slingshot past the elbow.

Instead, his hands and back elbow look like they roll down into the zone at the same time. No doubt this is a slight blemish on an otherwise great swing. The same quality can be found in hitters who fail to really drive the ball, and sometimes can cost them the ability to adjust to offspeed pitches when fooled. Kirilloff’s slower start, as well as his balanced lower half and strong contact skills, allows him to stay on balls regardless, and lets him use his raw strength to still create a lot of functional power. Watch a few of the balls jump off his low-effort bat, and those questions clear up pretty quickly. Despite the slow start to his swing as his hands start to move, he has plenty of bat speed where it matters most, through the hitting zone. The lackadaisical look his hands have is beefed up by a powerful hip drive and a solid middle-of-the-field disposition to all parts of his swing, with very little side-to-side movement that could take him off the ball.

He stays very relaxed and has a knack for swinging at good pitches, having a professional-looking approach at the plate geared toward driving the ball around the field. At present, his best drives to center and left are lower line-drive singles and doubles, unlike the towering fly balls he can hit to right, but his swing path and a few fly ball outs to left in Jupiter suggest he will have no problem hitting the ball over the fence to all parts of a professional ballpark. Kirilloff already looks bigger than his listed 6-foot-2, 195 pound size, and he still has some physical maturation left to go. After full body and skill development, he looks like a legitimate bet for at least a solid-average hit and plus power tool. There is enough here to believe both estimates may be a shade conservative, despite the inevitable disagreements over his bat speed.

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

My choice is whoever the Angels view as best available when they pick.  If they want to go after the best college arm then take the best one available when they pick.  Reading what Chuck posted when I saw PICK: TJ I automatically thought someone was making a joke about how our pick will already need surgery.

[Chuck]

By: Burke Granger

T.J. Zeuch – RHP – Pittsburgh. 6’7″ 225.  Class: Junior.  DOB:  August 1, 1995.  Last Drafted:  2013 (Kansas City Royals – 31th Round).

Scouted:  Virginia Cavaliers @ Pittsburgh Panthers, April 30, 2016.  Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

2014 was a big year for Pitt.  It was their first in the Atlantic Coast Conference, and it’s when big T.J. Zeuch arrived on campus.  A Mason, Ohio product, Zeuch considered Kentucky, Louisville, and Cincinnati as options to further his eduction but he ultimately chose Pittsburgh.  “When I first came up to Pitt, I kinda just fell in love with the place,” said Zeuch.  “Everything; the coaches, the conference – it’s kind of a home away from home.  I love it here!”

 

Zeuch started contributing early for the Panthers, making 15 appearances and 9 starts as a freshman.  Earning the Friday role by the end of the season, Zeuch’s season culminated with a pitching battle against Notre Dame’s two sport star Pat Connauthton in which Zeuch went the distance in the losing effort, producing line of 8IP, 7H, 3R, 1ER, 1BB, 5K.

Entrenched as Pittsburgh’s ace as a sophomore in 2015, Zeuch’s season was highlighted by earning ACC pitcher of the week by getting the win against Nathan Kirby and Virginia, the eventual National Champions in which he struck out 8, while surrendering just 4 hits, 0 runs and 0 walks.

In the Cape Cod League last summer pitching for the Chatham Anglers, Zeuch made 4 starts, striking out 17 and walking 5 over 21.2 innings.

Zeuch missed the first month of his junior season with a groin injury.  “Feels great, 100%” said Zeuch of his groin following his April 30th start.  Now healthy, Zeuch looks to lead Pittsburgh to the ACC tournament after missing out in each of the last two seasons.

STATISTICS

*As of May 5, 2016.

YEAR	CLASS	W-L	ERA	G	S	IP	H	K	BB
2014	Fr.	2-6	2.75	15	0	55.2	55	41	17
2015	So.	5-6	3.87	14	0	88.1	95	90	25
*2016	Jr.	5-1	2.63	7	0	48	41	51	10

REPERTOIRE:

Fastball:  Zeuch throws a two-seam fastball that sat 93-95 mph comfortably with significant arm-side run.  This late movement gives righties fits and should break bats during his professional career.

Slider:  An out-pitch at 87-88 mph, Zeuch’s slider is his best off-speed offering as it generates swings and misses from righties and lefties alike.

Curveball:  With a  sharp 12-6 break and good depth, Zeuch’s curveball gives him 3 playable pitches at the next level.  Zeuch throws this pitch between 78-80 mph.

Changeup:  An inconsistent offering at 84-86 mph, the development of this pitch will be a key variable in measuring Zeuch’s success as a professional.

Delivery:  Zeuch repeats his delivery well, especially for a big man.  Leveraging his 6’7″ frame and high 3/4 delivery, Zeuch pitches from a downhill plane, creating the illusion that he’s releasing the ball from about 50 feet away from home plate.  He’s not susceptible to the run game.  From the stretch, he’s quick to the plate and he keeps baserunners honest with a good move to first base.  He didn’t follow through as well as he could when I saw him, and while it didn’t affect his ability to keep the ball down, he’s not putting himself in an effective fielding position.

Control/Command:  Zeuch locates his fastball and slider to both sides of the plate.  With quite a bit of movement on the two-seamer, the command is far from pinpoint, but he’s consistently around the plate.

FUTURE:  When asked if he thinks about the draft, Zeuch replied, “I ignore it.  I mean, you hear things all the time, but no one knows what will happen until draft day.”  He’s right, but the uncertainty won’t last much longer.  Zeuch was head to head with first round project Connor Jones of Virginia when I saw him.  Based on pure stuff, I think Zeuch has a higher ceiling than Jones, though he’s not as polished.  That shouldn’t be terribly surprising since Jones was a first round candidate out of high school who pitched in Omaha last season.  Zeuch has an electric arm and the makings of at least 3 average or better pitches.  Climbing up industry draft boards of late, Zeuch could be a first rounder in June.

[ksangel]

A college pitcher similar to the one they drafted in the first round in 2004 please.

[greginpsca]

Throughout the draft, i think we will see the Angels selecting a lot of college pitchers.

[Chuck]

I'd like to see a balance of talent, both on offense and from the pitching side. 

But one thing I do not want to see are projects, toolsy types with no plate discipline, black dudes who can hit a fastball a mile but cannot hit the curve or slappymcsmallbats who are great defensively but can't hit a for shit..

[mulwin444]

Like has been said, the Angels farm has so many holes they could pick what they would consider as the best possible talent available at the time and not have to worry about there being an log-jam in the minors.

[Angel Oracle]

2 hours ago, Blarg said:

I am kind of surprised that we are 3 weeks away from the MLB draft, Eppler's first draft of his career as GM and there isn't a whisper of it yet. Now I know some of you guys have already been following prospect reports of potential draftees so let's hear it. Who are you going to pick? I don't think anyone can say which way the Angels are going to move in this draft with almost an entirely new crew but if you are in charge who are you taking with your first rounder. the #20 pick.

According to Baseball Prospectus the #20 player in their field is a High School SS named Delvin Perez. Is it too soon to look at a shortstop when we have 5 years of Simmons under control? At High School age he is probably 4 years from being able to find his way to a backup role but I think there is a more urgent need to fill a roster spot by taking a more polished player to fill a role starting no later than 2018. If that means picking lower to fill that role it may pay off more than just the best player at that draft slot.

I'm thinking that if Bryan Reynolds of Vanderbilt is available (ranked #22) the Angels should go after him. He profiles as a very good defensive center fielder that has a highly regarded hitting approach. Slide him over to left field and problem solved, we then have three ground covering players in the outfield which profiles like the World Series Royals where very few hit balls ever find grass.

 

#22 is close enough to the Halos pick, AND given the flyball nature of this staff, it doesn't hurt to have rock solid OF defense.    Sounds like his hitting tools are solid enough too.  It also doesn't hurt that Vandy has had a great baseball program for years.

Edited May 18, 2016 by Angel Oracle

[Brent Maguire]

Take the best available player in each round. The Angels need as much talent as they can get in this draft. 

Delvin Perez would be a huge get if he slips to 16. I've seen him ranging anywhere from 4-20 so he seems to be a wild card. Guy is very gifted defensively and has the tools to become a solid hitter. Corey Ray is another guy who seems like he could go anywhere from 3-12 but if he happens to fall, Angels should be all over him. Probably the best feel for hitting out of any player in this draft. 

Buddy Reed is a nice college bat who has more upside than most college guys. Fits in that middle of the 1st round range. Ian Lowe is a very good 3B prospect. Connor Jones is another guy I'd potentially look at even though his upside is a bit lower. Profiles as a 4/5 guy but he's considered to be very polished and could reach the majors in 2017. I do like Kirilloff too. Guy could really rake but his defense is fringy right now so he may be a 1B type so the bat really has to play up. 

Edited May 18, 2016 by Angels_Baseball

[Chimi]

First thing ... MLB draft is incredibly boring.

Second thing ... drafting for need is ALWAYS a terrible idea. Especially when it comes to baseball. You always draft best player available. You can figure out the rest later. You have plenty of time to do so in baseball.

[tdawg87]

They should draft a toolsy catcher from Devry University.

[jgimondo]

1st round needs to be best available , after that you go for need.

[Stradling]

I agree with the sentiment you draft the best available each round.  You just have to hope for a draft similar to 2009.  

[Docwaukee]

I think we'll go best college pitcher available in the first round and probably the second.  Then we'll go BPA mixing in some high upside high school guys as well.  

I don't like the high floor approach.  Most drafts result is maybe 2-3 guys that actually contribute at the major league level and after the first two rounds, you might get 1.  I'm in favor of going high risk, high reward when the general talent pool drops off.  

I also think they need to shorten the draft by about 10 rounds.  Maybe to somewhere around 20.  I think having a post draft FA signing period that is a little more active could be interesting.  

[Blarg]

I read an article on the values of draft pics in terms of realized WAR that spanned 3 periods from 1990-2006 but extends to 2012 for purposes of evaluating a players career.

http://viewfromthebleachers.com/blog/2012/08/23/success-rate-of-mlb-draft-picks-by-slot/

The breakdown is in the first 5 picks there is a 48% chance of getting a above replacement value player in the draft, someone that is a about a 2 WAR player a year over a five year career. The chance of finding a superior player drops to 30% which starts at about 3 WAR a year or (bite the bullet Wallyworld) Howie Kendrick (drafted in the 10th round).

Each tier takes a big step down to the point of where the Angels will draft and the chances of an average player is about 20 - 24%, a superior player 14%. It could be even be considerably lower depending on the value of the 2016 draft class. Some drafts produce fewer MLB players than others.

But with that in mind your chances of putting a league average player on the bench is less than 25% so why would you draft the best player available that may not have a role to fill when if you target a specific player that stays within that area of viable candidates for a specific role you will more than likely find a greater success than just a random position player.

People think nothing of selecting pitchers because they are pitchers, over position players because they feel the team needs depth in that specific area but then throw out targeting a specific position player for just any position player based solely on how good of an athlete he is believed to be. It's like going car shopping and crossing off every car you want to buy for the one someone else thinks performs better but in a color or trim you don't like and options you don't need. Just buy the damn car you like and need since they are all at the same price. A 20th round signing bonus.

The best player in the first round is the player that fits best in your immediate needs. You are only getting a one in 5 chance that any player you pick will make it so why not put that bet on a player that would do the roster the most good. If he fails to make it he is no more likely to have failed as the other guy not named Mike Trout you didn't select. Fill your immediate need if you can early then spend picks on wild cards from there on out. You may get Alfredo Amezega or Albert Pujols late in the draft. You never know.

Edited May 19, 2016 by Blarg

[Cdaniel]

Scout.com mock draft with Wards pick.

[AngelStew43]

If it were my draft, I would grab as many power arms as I could, with emphasis on guys that can start, and throw 93-95 or better.  College pitchers would be a plus, since their development time is generally shorter.

[Angel Oracle]

We actually have some arms above low minors, but are lacking them in the low minors.   That would point to drafting more HS pitchers later on and signing a couple of Latin American pitching prospects.  

[Chuck]

Trying to get Angels Scouting Director Ric Wilson for a chat here before the amateur draft. 

Will keep ya'll posted.