Thoroughbred Racing

[gotbeer]

2015 Travers Stakes Draw

This information is current as of 8/26/15

Position Horse Odds Jockey

1 Upstart 15-1 Irad Ortiz, Jr.

2 American Pharoah 1-5 Victor Espinoza

3 Mid Ocean 50-1 Manny Franco

4 Texas Red 8-1 Kent Desormeaux

5 Frammento 30-1 Jose Ortiz

6 Frosted 6-1 Joel Rosario

7 Keen Ice 12-1 Javier Castellano

8 Tale of Verve 30-1 Gary Stevens

9 King of New York 50-1 Julien Leparoux

10 Smart Transition 20-1 John Velazquez

 

 

Some good horses, so hopefully it will be a decent race.

Edited August 26, 2015 by gotbeer

[Adam]

I've got the full DRF card for Saturday if anyone wants it. PM me your email address.

[Homebrewer]

Super 2/4-6/4-6-7/all

 

my first impressions are usually better than my hard handicapping results..

[Adam]

IF you've never used TVG, not a bad time to sign up

 

https://www.tvg.com/page/Travers?srccode=dtxu&promocode=travers&utm_medium=display&utm_source=dataxu&utm_campaign=SummerRacing&dclid=COWx2qmNzMcCFZRkMAodJgAL8w

[Adam]

NM max $10 bet

[Adam]

Man it looks super chalky tomorrow at the spa. Dame Dorothy and AP look like locks.

[Adam]

I'll probably play the pick 4 tomorrow a few times. Races 8-11

8) 3

9) 5,7

10) 1,2,6

11) 2

[gotbeer]

Man it looks super chalky tomorrow at the spa. Dame Dorothy and AP look like locks.

 

2-4 exacta box looks good for the travers.  

 

And I thought La Verdad looked really good that race.  

[Adam]

DD is 4-4 at 7F. La Verdad is fast I just think DD will chase her down late

[Adam]

AP-TR exacta will probably pay $4.

And if TR tries to win, which he will, there's a chance he's dead halfway down the stretch and an illogical picks up the pieces. Upstart?

[Adam]

I didn't and really don't like Competitive Edge and would not play him to win, but if he doesn't win I have no idea who will and it makes no sense to spread in what should be a chalky pick 4. I listened to a friend make a really good case for him too. So yeah. My single of Competitive Edge is disingenuous. 

 

I'd probably play Watershed and Limousine Liberal on top and underneath in the exotics if I were around. 

[Homebrewer]

Will pays on that super...

@.50c

134.50 to AP

Might have been worth a little spread, since you had the other 2 legs.

[Homebrewer]

I was at Del Mar the day Cigar lost...kinda feels like that one.

[Homebrewer]

Lol at the Saratoga Live Video ad on this page..

How do it know??

[gotbeer]

My buddy was alive to the pick 4 to Pharoah.  Oops.  

 

He had a cover bet.  But what could have been.  Since he was alive to it to AP, looking back, we should have played the AP finish second senario.  Oh well.

 

And Adam can relate to this.  Or at least he knows how cheap I am.  If.  That describes my life.  But if I played a $28 pick 5.  Which would have meant an all in race 2 at del mar.  I would have hit the pick 5 at del mar.  It only paid 3g's.  F me.

[Adam]

American Pharoah was just the "2-horse" to me. Was happy to see a price win. 

[Adam]

Zenyatta was the only horse I had any emotional attachment to. She had a chance to go undefeated. Plus I bet on her in her last race.

 

AP wasn't undefeated and I was dead in the Pick 4 so I didn't care. This sport is 100% about handicapping and betting for me. I think it will be a good thing if you like AP. You might actually get a tiny bit of value on him in the BCC if he runs. 

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

Hitting Del Mar Saturday. 

[gotbeer]

Hitting Del Mar Saturday. 

 

Formula, or at least to eliminate horses from the field, that has been working for me at Del Mar this season.  

 

Scratch first time claimers, layoffs over 2 months, and jockey changes when most of the jockeys are there.  (unlike last week, when Espinoza, Desourmoux and a few others went to the Spa)  Only exceptions usually occur when the entire field is full of these conditional scratches.

 

Oh, and eye candy.

[Homebrewer]

eye candy....hitting the paddock early, before they are even being walked, and standing somewhere where you can see horses walking AT you (Santa Anita is good for that view) is always something I try to do. Of course on big days this isn't always possible.

But on a normal day, this is something that is part of my day plan.

It's why, even though I have both TVG and Expressbet accounts...being at the track is SO much better than watching horses on the tube .

[Tank]

Zenyatta was the only horse I had any emotional attachment to. She had a chance to go undefeated. Plus I bet on her in her last race.

 

 

oh really now.

 

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

Now going Friday and Saturday.

[Adam]

That is awesome! GB brought me a Z bobblehead a few years ago. Still graces my desk. Love her. 

[Adam]

I'll tell you guys right now that I'll be betting Tonalist in the Breeders Cup Classic. 

 

American Pharoah, Honor Code, Beholder (hopefully) and Keen Ice are going to take a lot of money. Tonalist is going to be at least 5th choice in the betting. 5th choice in that race might be 10-1.

 

That Travers proved that AP is not a super horse. There will absolutely be other speed signed on. I think Tonalist is a better than Honor Code at 10F and he can cut his own fractions if they go slow up front. 

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

You guys handicap this weekends del mar at all?

Edited September 4, 2015 by SOTO