Thoroughbred Racing

[Adam]

Not playing so I didn't buy the PPs. If someone has 'em, send 'em my way. 

[gotbeer]

Yeah, didn't get this weekend.  But who knows.  Might later on. lol

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

I just hit a $966 $.10 super in race 2. $12 play.

[gotbeer]

I just hit a $966 $.10 super in race 2. $12 play.

 

Me and Adam would like our commission.  Nice hit.  

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

Hit back to back supers today. 65 and 238. Decent day.

[gotbeer]

Me and Adam are still waiting for our commissions.  

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

I left them at the IRS window.

[Adam]

Nice dude! Well done. I need to spend a whole weekend playing nothing but supers. I don't do it enough but it seems like I always woulda had it...lol

BTW - stoked Liam's Map won the Woodward. Hope they point him to classic instead of mile. Ensures a hot pace. Can't wait for BC. Gotta a new kid coming any day. Gonna save a nice bankroll for Halloween

[gotbeer]

Nice dude! Well done. I need to spend a whole weekend playing nothing but supers. I don't do it enough but it seems like I always woulda had it...lol

BTW - stoked Liam's Map won the Woodward. Hope they point him to classic instead of mile. Ensures a hot pace. Can't wait for BC. Gotta a new kid coming any day. Gonna save a nice bankroll for Halloween

 

You want to know a pisser Adam?  I was playing Woodbine just for fun on friday.  And they were mentioning that the super high 5 in the last race was a huge jackpot.  So being the cheap shit I am, played 5 horses straight.  Knew the horse in first place was going to win.  If I only played a box in the next 4 horses for $4.80, I would have hit it.  It only paid 1.5k.  /sigh

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

Ouch. I'm playing supers today from home on Del Mar.

[gotbeer]

‘HEY, THAT’S MY WHIP!’ ASTONISHING STRETCH RUN AT PARX

 

Wow, this is just bizarre.  

 

[Adam]

Idiot. Hope he was suspended

[Tank]

judah ben hur took the whip from his roman friend in the chariot race, but he never got suspended.

 

just sayin'.

[Homebrewer]

Whole bunch of swerving and lugging during that stretch run.. from everybody.

Cheap and marginally sound horses, typical of Parx.

Edited September 24, 2015 by Homebrewer

[gotbeer]

So just my impressions of SA opening day.  

 

Beholder.  Beast of a horse.  She looks good for the Breeders Cup.  Big question is, can she win outside of California.  But she has more than enough to take it to the boys.

 

Songbird.  Looked really good.  

 

Nyquist was ok.  A bit green.  Swipe and the Desourmeux/Desourmeux combination might be a horse to watch.  If not for a bit of bumping and tight quarters, Swipe might have taken it.

[Homebrewer]

Beholder - Honor Code exacta should pay nicely.

Going to be a great BCC.

[gotbeer]

Beholder - Honor Code exacta should pay nicely.

Going to be a great BCC.

 

And to think.  If Shared Belief didn't get injured.  And if could get 2014 Chrome, Moreno, and Bayern instead of tank wars versions.  It could have been the epic of epic BC Classics.  

[Adam]

I know we're more than a month out, but the Classic is shaping up to be an outstanding field and I think a great betting opportunity. Never too early to start making a morning line. 

 

American Pharoah (5-2) - On Paper, probably should not be the favorite, but will take the most money from the public.

 

Honor Code (7-2) - Met Mile and Whitney Champion. Pace Scenario will favor him. 

 

Beholder (4-1) - Right there with the top two in achievement and popularity

 

This is where it starts to get interesting. It is also when the odds are going to really drop off.

 

Tonalist (8-1) - His betting popularity is still to be determined. He runs at Belmont on Saturday. If he romps, he may make the favorites spread a 4-horse one instead of a 3-horse one. I think he was running every bit as well as Honor Code late in the Whitney and has every bit the chance to win the Classic. He's also more versatile and can be placed much closer to the pace. I hope he runs a strong second in the Jockey Club because I can't wait to unload on him in the Classic. 

 

Liam's Map (8-1) - Has done nothing wrong. Will likely control the pace in the classic. Will force either AP or Beholder (or both) to start their run(s) early. 

 

Frosted (12-1) - I think he'll run. What else is he going to do? 

 

Keen Ice (15-1) - Beat AP. Another versatile closer. Might still have his best race ahead of him. 

 

Gleneagles (15-1) - Will be the wiseguy horse as the Euro invader. 

 

Effinex (30-1) - Very good horse. Another closer. 

 

Coach Inge (30-1) - Another speed horse. Please run!!! 

 

Wicked Strong (30-1) - Too many failures this year to consider him as a contender. 

 

Hard Aces (50-1) - Not good enough. May not run. 

 

It will be interesting to see who else will go, if anyone. 

[Homebrewer]

Keenland....man that is going to be a, if not the, tough part of capping this thing.

 

I've never really felt comfortable trying to figure out that track, and still don't. Just don't see it enough to know much about it.

Is it that they run so many 2 year olds there, that its hard to get a feel for the way proven horses run there?

Weather is always more of a factor than we are used to on the west coast..

Thoughts?

[Adam]

Yeah its not like Keenland is a major track in the sense that horses get 4-5 races a year there. Short meets and all. 

 

I think you have to handicap it as fair, weather permitting. The one thing I've always done there is play against the east coasters who excel at those one-turn miles 8F+ races. 

[gotbeer]

One of the tellers at Santa Anita was telling me.  At Keenland and at Del Mar, it better not rain significantly.  He was saying that the rain they had at Del Mar this season, totally flooded the parking lot with about 2 feet of water.  He said the same is true for Keenland, and that if there is any significant rain, it could rain out.

[Adam]

Just move the BC to Santa Anita permanently already

[Homebrewer]

I'm with you Adam, in that SA should host the BC every year.

 

Keenland to me is a lot like handicapping Del Mar, especially back before they re-did the track, or maybe Saratoga.

It's hard to find any bias, even though there seems to be one. Not enough races. I've never done real well there.

I've been bummed since they announced it was going to be held there this year.

 

Beer, living in Dana Point for many years, Del Mar was always easy and I used to spend a lot of time down there every summer.

I always thought that the way the main parking lot, and the jockey-trainer lot in the buildings right across from the gate there sat lower than the track, that it would flood.

Never experienced any real rain there, though.

Across the 5, that lot was dirt for as long as I was there, I imagine they have paved it now? 

[Tank]

horses need a marine layer to run in. it keeps them sharp. here's another vote for santa anita.

[Adam]

http://www.breederscup.com/article/breeders-cup-world-championships-wagering-menu-announced