Thoroughbred Racing

[Adam]

Well, you've got a lot of shippers and I think its the air. That ocean air is some heavy stuff. 

[Tank]

i read that as "Golden Gate Strippers".

[gotbeer]

i read that as "Golden Gate Strippers".

 

That would also be correct if you look at the Del Mar crowd. 

[Adam]

Huge carryover at Del Mar today. Worth a small stab at the Pick 6

[Homebrewer]

Early weeks of Del Mar meets have been "bombs away" long before synthetics were even imagined..

 

I always try to get expanded PPs and find horses that won, or ran OK there, even if they never did much else, anywhere else.... 

[Adam]

Yep. Definitely Formulator for DM

[Homebrewer]

The other thing there for me is learning/remembering to just ignore the tote board.

[Adam]

Man the last race today is impossible. I'm 5 deep and feel shaky about it. 

 

Race 4 - Interesting Longshot #1 Beast of Bourbon with a lot of bad synth and dirt form this year, but he was good on the grass last year and faced much tougher at least in terms of conditions and posted some nice speed figs. Gets Victor. Returns to grass. 15-1 on the ML. 

[gotbeer]

The other thing there for me is learning/remembering to just ignore the tote board.

 

Sometimes the tote board has some good information.  My buddy likes the angle of show betting.  Especially if a horse's show bets are higher than the favorites.  He'll go across the board on that horse.

[gotbeer]

Man the last race today is impossible. I'm 5 deep and feel shaky about it. 

 

Race 4 - Interesting Longshot #1 Beast of Bourbon with a lot of bad synth and dirt form this year, but he was good on the grass last year and faced much tougher at least in terms of conditions and posted some nice speed figs. Gets Victor. Returns to grass. 15-1 on the ML. 

 

I remember that horse.  If I tell you to bet on him, he'll come in last.  If I tell you not to bet on him, he will win. 

 

You are welcome.

[Adam]

I'm just trying to get a little bankroll going for next Saturday so I can make a run at the Pick 5

[Homebrewer]

"Sometimes the tote board has some good information. My buddy likes the angle of show betting. Especially if a horse's show bets are higher than the favorites. He'll go across the board on that horse."

Don't get me wrong, I use the tote a lot, I've just found that at Del Mar there are soooo many inexperienced bettors that it throws off everything I have learned about using the tote as a "last minute" tool..

[gotbeer]

Here is some Del Mar weird things about Del Mar today.

 

If you bet a win bet on every single horse today, it would have cost you $186.  The total win payout was $157.80.  

 

But if you just bet on every horse that was over 10-1 odds.  It would have cost you $94.  The total win payout was $110.60.  

If you scratch a race if any horse is below 1-1 odds.  Cost $90.  Win $110.60.  

If you scratch a race if any horse is below 2-1 odds.  Cost $54.  Win $80.40.

 

And looking at how the horses have come in the last 2 weeks.  I'm wondering if I should be playing this angle.

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

Interesting GB. I got snapped on the last leg of a pick 3 the other day at DeL Mar by a 27-1 shot.

[Adam]

I played the pick 3 Friday to close out the card. Missed the first leg when Sky Kingdom lost. Singled the 2 at 10-1 in the 2nd leg but didn't play him to win. Idiot! Played 2,11,13 in the last leg and it came 11-2-13. Did I play the tri? No. Idiot. 

[gotbeer]

Degen level - Pro.

 

FBI: 'Snowbird Bandit' tells law enforcement agents 'I'm cooked'; he had more than $1,100 in Del Mar race track betting slips

[Adam]

Damn

[Adam]

Del Mar day for me, boys! It's like Christmas morning.

Some pretty competitive races and I like a few prices initially.

Race 1 - #3 Ice Cream Truck (6-1 ML) comes in with bad NYRA form. Returns to the west coast and to a trainer - both of which are positive moves. If he runs back to his CA form from the winter he wins this race. I think he drifts up to 9-1. Would need 12-1 to bet win, but looking forward to playing him in exotics.

Race 2 - #2 Noble Kent (6-1) big class drop 2-1-0-1 at Del Mar. Need to spread in this one. #5 and #9 look logical too.

Race 3 - #1 Jazzy Josh (4-1). This is a tough race. Toss the last race off the turf. I think Victor can get sit the perfect trip. Gotta take a stand. Will single, unless #8 Peacenluvpeacenluv goes overlooked on the tote.

Race 4 - #3 Can Can Babe (5-1) will probably be an agressive W bet for me. Likes to win. Another that could drift up. 8-1 is what I'm thinking she'll go off at

Race 5 - #10 I'm a Suspect (15-1) looks as good as any of the firsters on paper. Wide open baby race...

Race 6 - #1 Lamontange (7-2) will likely get hammered at windows. Wesley Ward would not be sending a horse here if he didn't think he could win. Looks like a big class and tactical advantage.

Race 7 - ALL - seriously who knows? Might hit ALL button. Leaning toward 1,6,9,10

Race 8 - Free Square #1 Beholder

Race 9 - #1 Yahoo Tahoe (10-1) will probably get bet down from that number but. Loves to win. Competitive figs and class. First time gelding.

Looking at an aggressive 1 with 1 double in race 8 & 9

Race 10 - might be another ALL situation. Like #5 Mixio (20-1) a little bit at a huge price.

Possible Pick 4 Play

All

1

1

1,2,4,5,7,8,11

Edited August 1, 2015 by Adam

[gotbeer]

Your longshot plays Adam.

 

Race 2.  8 Accelerant

Race 9.  2 short heat wave

 

Both Unusual Heats.

[gotbeer]

Just handicapped race 6-10.  

 

race 6.  

1 Lamontagne  

8 Pattitude - good dirt times, not great on turf so may be a scratch

9 Tale of Papa Nick - downhill showed speed.  might be my choice.

 

Race 7 - wide open

All

Jock change on 6.  Might be only horse I don't use

 

Race 8

1 Beholder

 

Race 9

2 Short Heat Wave - Iggy.  Unusual Heat.  LS Price

3 Old Man Lake - good consistent speed figures

5 Just Kidding - good last race.  Bejarano

 

Race 10

3 Elegant Street - first time lasix

6 Professor Berns - first time gelding.  if he could calm down and rate, could be closing late.

 

 

Bets is probably going to end up being 

Race 6 win on 9  $2

Pick 3  9 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10 with 1 $9

 

Race 8

Double 1 with 2, 3 $4

Pick 3 1 with 2,3 with 3, 6 $4

[gotbeer]

Just handicapped race 6-10.  

 

race 6.  

1 Lamontagne  

8 Pattitude - good dirt times, not great on turf so may be a scratch

9 Tale of Papa Nick - downhill showed speed.  might be my choice.

 

 

F me.  Of course I leave him off my tickets.

Edited August 1, 2015 by gotbeer

[Adam]

Had to make a lot of adjustments yesterday with scratches the way the track was playing etc.

My big ticket was a pick 3 in race 7-9. All/1/1. Had it multiple times and sonofabitch if yahoo Tahoe didn't look like a winner on the turn before hanging.

Also had a big win bet on 5 Mixio in the last. Another that looked like a winner on the turn before hanging.

Had a heavy 1/3 exacta in race 6 and the bejarano horse just flew up the rail.

Cashed 3-4 tickets. I moved off of Noble Kent and onto Accelerant in the 2nd. Had a nice win bet on him but he was bet down to 5-1.

Saratoga was my downfall. Finished the day down $40 and I was -$50 at Saratoga

[gotbeer]

Can Pharoah be beat in the Haskell?  

[Adam]

That may have been his most impressive victory. Absolutely demolished the field under a complete stranglehold the final 1/2 furlong. Earned a 109 Beyer. Keen Ice was flying late and probably earned a 105. Would love to see Victor floor it with AP in the BCC. 

 

Hey GB, remember the Sherriff's horse Rutile?

 

http://www.calracing.com/live-video/replays/

 

 

Can't seem to find any info on when she's running again

[gotbeer]

The interesting horse when it comes to AP will be Texas Red.  Might be the next race, might be the BCC.  But this is the one 3 year old that might have a chance against AP.  Or maybe I should say, the horse that has never faced AP that could cause him trouble.