Thoroughbred Racing

[gotbeer]

Beholder shipped and came down with a fever.  So she's day to day.

[Homebrewer]

I get a fever every time I fly too.

 

I gotta feeling this Keenland thing is going to mess everything up.

[Adam]

Hopefully they get their heads on straight and just keep it at SA and Del Mar every year moving forward. 

[Tank]

Beholder shipped and came down with a fever.  So she's day to day.

 

"but then again, aren't we all."

- keith olbermann

[Adam]

Only 10 pre-entered for the Classic

 

http://www.drf.com/events/breeders-cup-classic

[Homebrewer]

Damn.. Beholder is one magnificent looking creature.

She blows me away every time I see a picture of her.

Being a Dick fan, it's going to be hard not to go with her on top.

Might even be over Watchmakers ML of 3-1.

I do think AP is going to make up for the Travers here, so an AP-Beholder exacta might be all it takes.

Could be an Alisheba-Ferdinand type of race where they are the obvious 1-2 and run that way, with the money really spread out.

Beholder on top could pay 30.00 on a $2 exacta.

Edited October 21, 2015 by Homebrewer

[Homebrewer]

Wicked Strong in the Dirt Mile. Unless some freaky speed there is able to clear out and somehow hold up after sizzling fractions,

Strong can mow em down.

I'm thinking wheel (and cover with light back-wheel) in the exotics. 

Edited October 21, 2015 by Homebrewer

[Adam]

I like Wicked Strong a bit too, but it is going to require that another horse push Liam's Map. Not sure any will, but those are likely the main two I'll be using along with maybe Tapiture if he's a go. 

[Homebrewer]

You posted while I was editing, thinking.

Thanks for the DRF page with links..

Looks to me like there will be plenty of pace for Liam's Map to contend with(MrZ & Appealing Tale)...will have to see how the race comes together, though.

Edited October 21, 2015 by Homebrewer

[Adam]

Liam's Map can carry 22 flat quarters for a while. Mr. Z tried that in the Preakness and AP laughed at him. Appealing Tale is definitely the wild card. Remember Goldenscents last year? Vicars In Trouble went balls out and Goldenscents pissed on him on the far after setting crazy fractions. Liam's Map is a stud. And game. Check out his race against Valid late last year. They hook up on far turn. Looks like Valid is going to pass easily. Nope. 

 

 

 

This race more than any other...the post draws are going to be super important. Plus Liam's Map is going to be 4-5 or 1-1. Not worth much of a bet. Thankfully its a Friday race. 

[Homebrewer]

I was also thinking PPs are going to be really important, and since these races always have full fields, they will be gunning for him, trying to keep him from a lone lead.

 

And do I ever remember Goldencents..I saw the maiden win and then followed that horse along...

[Adam]

La Verdad cross-entered and likely to run tomorrow at Belmont, meaning no BC, which is a bummer. She was going to be the favorite in the F & M Sprint and she can't get 7F. That was going to be an easy bet against. Smart connections.

[Homebrewer]

A week from today.

I better get at it.

I hope this hurricane moving across Mexico this weekend doesn't have an effect on the Keenland weather.

Wet stuff could bring on a lot of scratches.

[Adam]

Lexington Forecast has Rain T/W/TH and Sunday. haha

 

The Keenland turf is long and durable. They'll run unless it pours. 

[Homebrewer]

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=38.04595287232826&lon=-84.62967896830895#.ViqTH02FP5o

Yep..looks like it is going to rain much of the week.

Bears watching..

[Homebrewer]

Monday will be cool but quiet under weak shortwave ridging, but a
bowling ball closed low moving across the Northern Plains will pick
up the remnant low (and copious moisture) from Patricia and pull it
north out of Texas late Monday night and Tuesday. Will ramp POPs up
to at least likely Tuesday through Wednesday, and even categorical
in the north and west Tuesday night as a 40-50 kt LLJ feeds Gulf
moisture north into the area. With dynamics that strong, will carry
at least an isolated thunder mention, and the HWO will highlight the
potential for gusty winds in convection. QPF remains on the
conservative side now with widespread 1-2 inch amounts, but isolated
amounts of 3 inches or more are certainly not out of the question.
Will not get carried away this early with severe potential, and
definitely not flood potential until we see what happens with our
weekend rainfall.

The next bubble of high pressure Thu-Fri will bring a quiet end to
the next work week, with temps again below climo.

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

I've been enjoying playing Keeneland this meet and I look forward to BC.

[Homebrewer]

Nothing like some local knowledge and feel for the course.

If nothing else it boosts confidence, which is as important as anything else.

[Homebrewer]

Adam...are you a DRF+ member?

I'd like to read about the works going on at Keeneland. Honor Code, AP, and others have all worked this week.

Edited October 25, 2015 by Homebrewer

[Adam]

No I'm not. DRF is a very good product IMO but their business model makes little sense to me. I won't pay for + membership. 

 

This is a very good radio show. Available on the website or as a podcast. http://stevebyk.com/

 

He's got a bunch of the clockers on all the time. 

 

PS - Linda Rice had La Verdad rate in her stakes race on Saturday. Horse won in a hand ride by 4 at 6.5F. They're going to wheel back in the BC. Nuts! 

[Adam]

I pinned the thread for this week.

 

I will be buying the DRF Classic PPs after the post draw. Either tonight or tomorrow. PM me if you want an emailed copy. 

[Homebrewer]

No I'm not. DRF is a very good product IMO but their business model makes little sense to me. I won't pay for + membership. >>>>

Agree. I used to buy racing digest online when I was more active at the local tracks down in Socal. You only paid for the tracks/meets you wanted, and the info was even more thorough than DRF.

PM with email addy coming, thanks.

There will be a lot to talk about in our sport this week. Lets make some $$$!

[Homebrewer]

PS - Linda Rice had La Verdad rate in her stakes race on Saturday. Horse won in a hand ride by 4 at 6.5F. They're going to wheel back in the BC. Nuts!

She must be confident in the horse's soundness and ability, she is a good trainer and I've seen this work before.

One of my favorite sayings when it comes to racing..

"It's all about the horse".

Edited October 26, 2015 by Homebrewer

[gotbeer]

I've been enjoying playing Keeneland this meet and I look forward to BC.

 

 

Anything you notice?  bias wise?  

[Homebrewer]

Yeah..

They are going to get some moisture there, if they haven't already.

The track conditions are going to be a big piece of the puzzle.

Info about the track and how it's been playing will be appreciated..

Edited October 26, 2015 by Homebrewer