Thoroughbred Racing

[Adam]

Way too many short priced horses, GB. Take some more chances dude. 

[gotbeer]

Way too many short priced horses, GB. Take some more chances dude. 

 

Hey, not all my picks were favorites.  

 

But I'm debating on these two bets.

 

Race 3 pick 3

10/all/4

 

 

Race 8 pick 4

11/all/1/1,9

[Homebrewer]

I'll be here about noon tomorrow to go over how the track is playing to that point, odds, etc.

My Sat is going to depend on how three races go tomorrow, starting with the mile.

 

 

 tri

3 with 1 5 8 10 with 1 5 8 10

 

ex box 3 1 8 

Edited October 29, 2015 by Homebrewer

[Adam]

Friday Breeders Cup Picks

 

Juvenile Turf

Have to go deep in this race. Watched multiple replays for the Euro runners in here. I am against 14-Hit It A Bomb. 13-Cymric is probably the best horse in the race. At the odds and with the post position, he isn't worth a bet. I prefer 6-Birchwood of the European Runners at 12-1. Birchwood has good tactical speed and should sit right off of Manhattan Dan. Both Chad Brown horses look live to me. 7-Rays The Bar and 12-Camelot Kitten both found trouble in their last and finished crazy strong.  Both Big Prices. I'll include 4-Shogun. Some of these Euros perform extremely well when they get lasix. Great trainer.

Top Pick

6-Birchwood (12-1)

 

Underneath

13-Cymric (7-2)

12-Camelot Kitten (12-1)

7-Rays The Bar (20-1)

4-Shogun (12-1)

 

Dirt Mile

 

3-Liam's Map (1-1) is the most likely winner of the two days. Class, Speed and Pace advantage over the field. Not going to invest anything trying to beat him, especially needing to go so deep in the Turf races.

9-Tapiture (10-1) finished second in this race last year to another speed demon Goldenscents. He returned from the sidelines with a nice prep race and Grade 3 win in his last. I prefer his running style and freshness to the other contenders in here. I think he could round out a decent exacta. I prefer 1-Red Vine to either Wicked Strong or Lea, who both have had long, long campaigns.

 

Top Pick

3-Liam's Map (1-1)

 

Underneath

9-Tapiture  (10-1)

1-Red Vine (6-1)

 

Juvenile Fillies Turf

 

I've actually paired this race down to two Euros and one American horse. I'll go with 3-Alice Springs (6-1) as my top choice on the strength of a number of European analysts' opinions. 10-Illuminate (9-2) comes in with maybe the best form and is another getting a lot of love from clockers and overseas handicappers. 8-Harmonize (7-2) looks like the best American. Crazy big move and late run last out, going 15 wide around the turn and getting up late.  I will throw in 11-Pricedtoperfection (20-1) in my multis and underneath in an exacta.

 

Top Pick

3-Alice Springs (6-1)

 

Underneath

10-Illuminate (9-2)

8-Harmonize (7-2)

11-Pricedtoperfection (20-1)

 

Distaff

 

There is a ton of speed in this race. I am way against Wedding Toast, who has faced small fields in her most recent races. No way she gets it her own way on the front end. Mike Smith will gun My Sweet Addiction to the front, as that is her only chance at winning. As Wedding Toast and My Sweet Addiction go at it on the front end, there are a host of other horses who will be chasing closely behind him, including Sheer Drama and Yahilwa. Of those, I prefer 10-Yahilwa (20-1) based on versatility and post position. Plus she's improving. That said, I see two main contenders in here. I love 1-I'm A Chatterbox (8-1). She should save ground and sit the perfect trip in the third flight and get a dream run in the stretch. She's improving and really coming into her own late in the season. I think she might drift up in price too.  12-Got Lucky (6-1) looks to have a huge shot in here as well from off the pace. I may include 4-Stopchargingmaria (5-1) underneath and in multis.

 

Top Pick

1-I'm A Chatterbox (8-1)

 

Underneath

10-Yahilwa (20-1)

12-Got Lucky (6-1)

4-Stopchargingmaria (5-1)

 

Likely Bets:

Race 6  50-cent Pick-3 ($10)

4,6,7,12,13 with 3 with 3,8,10,11

 

Race 6 $1 Exacta ($4)

6 with 4,7,12,13

 

Race 7 $5 Exacta ($5)

3 with 9

 

Race 7 50-cent Trifecta ($3)

3 with 1,9 with 1,2,5,9

 

Race 8 $1 Exacta ($6)

3,10 with 3,8,10,11

 

Race 9 $5 Exacta Box ($30)

1,10,12

 

Distaff-Classic Double $10

1 with 4 

[Adam]

I may scrap all my plays and put my entire Friday budget on I'm A Chatterbox

[Homebrewer]

LOL!

The price is gonna be right on Chatterbox, and after Liams Map wins...it should be "bombs away" for the next few races!

Edited October 29, 2015 by Homebrewer

[Adam]

I just think Yahilwa has a huge shot to finish in the exacta and would pay boxcars

[Homebrewer]

I'm looking at both Catch a Glimpse and Gliding By underneath in the juvy fillies..

[Homebrewer]

And 1L is definitely something to look at for the Euros. 

[Homebrewer]

I'm excited that it's BC eve.

I'll be looking at some more stuff later this evening, really glad to have some other insights to consider.

[gotbeer]

 

 

Distaff-Classic Double $10

1 with 4 

 

If you feel that big on Chatterbox.  I would go 1 with all in the Double.  Chatterbox will be big in the odds.  And if pharoah doesn't win, the payout will be huge.

[gotbeer]

Well now I have to win this weekend.  My  cmputer just took a crap.  So have to get a new one.

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

I like the positive energy on Chatterbox here.

I was mentioning that Starr going against the AP train, here is his thoughts on Effinix:

But first his daily double today/tomorrow. He goes for price remember.

Special Double: There is a special "daily double" available in this year's Distaff, going to tomorrow's Breeders' Cup Classic. In this special double, use Got Lucky, Frivolous, Sheer Drama, Wedding Toast and Yahilwa in the Distaff and in the Classic use Effinex, Beholder, Tonalist, Gleneagles.

(His classic pick Modified after scratch of Beholder)

Why I am not picking American Pharoah to win theClassic - American Pharoah is undoubtedly the best of his crop, and one of the best three-year-olds to come along in a very long time. However, he has never faced older horses as he is doing in the Classic and although a number of three-year-olds have won the Classic, the best of those have at least faced if not beaten older foes before their Classic try. Additionally, the best older horses in the classic have run faster than American Pharoah (112, 112 and 110 last three Equibase figures), with Tonalist (123, 123 and 122 recently), Honor Code (126 and 122 in victory this spring and summer) and Effinex (122 and 122 in his best efforts) all 10 or more points superior to American Pharoah. Even Smooth Roller (115 recently) has run faster. Not only has American Pharoah not exceeded a 112 figure this year, neither too has Keen Ice or Frosted, nor have the latter pair faced older horses until now. For those reasons I don't consider those three year olds as win contenders in this year's Classic.

Effinex will be my top choice to win this year's Breeders' Cup Classic, and not just because I'm known as a contrarian. He has run very well at the distance of one mile and on quarter, winning the Suburban Handicap in July with a 122 figure and beating Tonalist in the process, with Tonalist opening at 6 to 1 odds while Effinex opens at 30 to 1. Getting a jockey change to a Hall-of-Fame rider in Mike Smith, Effinex should be racing in fourth or fifth in the early stages, perhaps closer to the pace than Tonalist and definitely closer than Honor Code, so he may have first run on the pacesetters over the other closers and has a legitimate shot to post the upset. Tonalist gets the ground saving rail for the Classic and last month won Jockey Club Gold Cup by nearly five lengths, earning a 123 figure for the second race in a row, certainly good enough to win here if repeated. Honor Code may be as good as Tonalist, Effinex and Beholder but there may not be the hot early pace benefiting Honor Codeas it did in his big wins this year. Gleneagles hasn't raced on dirt or run 10 furlongs in his career but he won three important Group 1 races in a row this spring with the equivalent of 125, 121 and 125 Equibase figures. He is bred to handle dirt and run this far and opening at 20 to 1 his chances can't be discounted.

With the scratch of Beholder, AmericanPharoah may get an easy lead and although I don't think he can win, as I still want to cash some bets if he runs well, I'm using him on some of the exotic wager tickets below.

Bet Effinex to win and place at odds of 7 to 2 or higher. Bet Tonalist to win at odds of 4 to 1. Make a small win and place bet on Gleneagles at odds of 6 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta box combining Effinex, Tonalist, Honor Code and Gleneagles. Play another exacta box combining Effinex and AmericanPharoah and another combining Gleneagles and AmericanPharoah. There's no sense combining American Pharoah with either Tonalist or Honor Code in the exacta as those will be the lowest paying combinations.

Optionally, play an exacta box of Effinex, Tonalist, Honor Code and Gleneagles over ALL. At the $1 level the cost of the bet is $32 but if American Pharoah is not first or second the exacta will pay handsomely.

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

FYI here was his analysis of two the turf and distaff.

Race 8 Friday 10/30/15 - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf – Approximate Post Time 4:50 PM ET

Illuminate just finished 2nd in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes last month in England and appears to have a class edge here as well as may be faster, her efforts in Europe earning the equivalent of 109-110 Equibase Figures that tower over most of these. Frankie Dettori rode her in her last effort and takes the call so having a jockey familiar with the horse is another plus. Mirage won in her career debut in Ireland then was sold at auction for upwards of a half-million dollars. In her U.S. debut 3 weeks ago she was making a move from 9th and was passing the top two in the stretch when she got cut off, nearly falling, then recovering to finish 3rd. She opens at 30/1 odds that are impossible to pass up for any and all wagers we make involving this race. Alice Springs finished 4th, 3/4 of a length behind Illuminate last month then won a stakes with a $450K and could be a strong factor in the run to the wire. Harmonize and Sapphire Kitten are the best of the local contingent and ran well in a stakes at Keeneland earlier this month.

Bet Illuminate to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more. Also bet Mirage to win and place at odds of 5 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta box combining Illuminate, Mirage, Alice Springs, Harmonize and Sapphire Kitten.

Race 9 Friday 10/30/15 – Breeders' Cup Distaff – Approximate Post Time 5:35 PM ET

Note: Untapable has been scratched.

Got Lucky won the opening weekend Spinster Stakes at Keeneland at the distance and in two of her last three races earned 115 Equibase Figures that make her the one to beat in this year's Distaff. In spite of how I feel about Got Lucky, Frivolous is a horse we should consider at least a small bet on to win (or win/place, or win/place/show), opening at 30/1 odds. She likes this 9 furlong trip, having posted the 30/1 upset in June in the Fleur de Lis Stakes at Churchill Downs and has won at Keeneland. Sheer Drama has faced Frivolous three times, beating her twice and losing to her once. She also beat Got Lucky the only time they met and with her two best efforts in 2015 earning 115 figures she has to be respected. Wedding Toast is the slight 4/1 favorite on the morning line and has proven competitive in top company over and over. She will need to improve off a career best 111 last race figure but that is a possibility.

Bet Got Lucky to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more. Also make a win/place bet on Frivolous at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta box combining Got Lucky, Frivolous, Sheer Drama, Wedding Toast and Yahilwa (a neck behind Got Lucky in the Spinster earlier this month)

Consider a $0.50 Trifecta box combining the same five horses.

[gotbeer]

Totally a rumor that was passed on down to me from some horseplayers.

 

Connections to Golden Horn do not like the #1 spot.  Already making excuses as he would not be entered in the race if it wasn't for it being his last one. 

 

So take it or leave it.

[Adam]

The thing with the BC is all of these horses for the most part are championship caliber. If you look at the history of this weekend, the average payouts are insanely huge. Longshot types in here are champions and often accomplish what they accomplish with a lot more in the tank. Look at Work All Week as an example last year. That horse faced next to nobody, running at midwestern B-level tracks, but it took a race against the best for him to run his best.

 

Karakontie - same thing. 

 

No opinion is invalid. I'm beginning to think Street Strategy (50-1) can hit the board in the dirt mile. 3 for 3 at the distance. 1 for 1 at Keenland. 

 

I'll post my final bets for today in a bit. Still trying to figure out how to use my budget. I'm probably only going to put $50 into play today. 

[gotbeer]

Looking at Weather.com

 

Oct 31

12-2 pm 20% chance of rain

3-5 pm 10% chance of rain

6pm 30% chance of rain

7-8 pm 35% chance of rain

[Adam]

Totally a rumor that was passed on down to me from some horseplayers.

 

Connections to Golden Horn do not like the #1 spot.  Already making excuses as he would not be entered in the race if it wasn't for it being his last one. 

 

So take it or leave it.

 

I'd imagine they'll scratch the horse if they think he's compromised 

[gotbeer]

Would this in any way be a play I should make?

 

Pick 3 $7

Race 7 3

Race 8 all

race 9 1

 

Pick 3 $7

Race 7 3

Race 8 10

Race 9 all

[Adam]

The will pays are available on TVG for the Distaff-Classic Double.

 

For $2 to AP the payouts currently are:

 

1-$27

2-$121

3-$203

4-$18

5-$250

6-$225

7-$23

8-$64

9-$47

10-$117

12-$43

13-$378

14-$50

15-$220

 

There's $60K in the pool. That is a big enough sample IMO. I'm sure some huge money will come in a little closer to race time, but these payouts aren't terrible. Not enough value for me to play I'm A Chatterbox to AP. I'd rather play her straight up. 

[gotbeer]

I'm a chatterbox to all though.  There are some really nice payouts there. 

 

If I'm reading the chart right.  1 to ap will pay 13 on a $9 all bet.  Next lowest would be $31 to the 9. 

[Adam]

I'm off to lock these bad boys in:

Race 6: $1 Exacta ($8)

7

4,6,12,13

&

6,13

7,12

Race 7-9: 50-Cent Pick Three ($7.50)

3

3,8,10,11,14

1,10,12

Race 7: 50-Cent Trifecta ($3.00)

3

5,6

1,5,6,9

Race 7: 10-Cent Superfecta ($3.60)

3

1,5,6

1,5,6,9

1,5,6,8,9,10

Race 8: 50-Cent Trifecta ($4.50)

10

3,8,11

3,8,11,14

Race 8: 10-Cent Superfecta ($3.20)

8,11

10

3,8,11,12,14

3,6,8,11,12,14

Race 9: $20 W

1

Edited October 30, 2015 by Adam

[Adam]

Called an audible in Race 9. $20 W on 1

 

I threw a $2 Distaff/Classic Double 10 with 1

Edited October 30, 2015 by Adam

[gotbeer]

And there goes the first bomb of the day.

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

A big price is race 3. I'm going for gold.