Thoroughbred Racing

[Adam]

http://www.drf.com/videos

 

Clockers Reports 

[Homebrewer]

They even talk about the weather, and watching to see how much rain falls tonight into and through tomorrow.

Could be as much as a few inches, which will affect the turf for sure if it rains that much.

[Adam]

I was reading that the weather should be fine and have little impact. Some Keenland people actually said that a fair amount of rain through Wed would be good for the turf course. 

[Adam]

At first pass, I am LOVING 1-I'm A Chatterbox in the Distaff. Can sit mid-pack and save ground in what looks like a definite pace meltdown. 8-1 on the ML

[gotbeer]

Track Superintendent just announced.  Turf course is soft right now.  He thinks he might be able to get it to Good by Saturday.  But it will be either Soft or Good.  No chance of it being firm.

 

So suck it east coast horse racing in October/November.

[Adam]

The Turf races are impossible. Golden Horn looks like a lock though

[Homebrewer]

The European horses are used to a softer turf than the usual US turf.

That said I agree with Adam. Turf races are tough, period. They are a handicapping nightmare, and with a whole lot of great horses, you really need to be there and examine the horseflesh. Full fields on turf...unless you have a super standout horse are tough to bet, because they so often come down the trip, especially racing luck and position in the stretch.

That said...they tend to pay really well (exotics) if you can get lucky.

Not the kind of races I like to play much, but fun as hell to watch. 

Edited October 28, 2015 by Homebrewer

[Homebrewer]

I really haven't had much chance to look over things for fri...I'm looking for one good one on fri, to bankroll my Sat.

[gotbeer]

I really haven't had much chance to look over things for fri...I'm looking for one good one on fri, to bankroll my Sat.

 

 

Good.  Let us know which one that one is.  

[Homebrewer]

Illuminate Will Light Up the Board
by Caton Bredar Horseplayernow.com
Caton’s
Picks
1. ILLUMINATE 2. ALICE SPRINGS
3. CATCH A GLIMPSE 4. HARMONIZE
ANALYSIS: In seven runnings, the Juvenile Fillies Turf has proven
a bit more predictable than the average toddler. Surprisingly, no
California-based runner has been able to win this event, despite
a frequent home-course advantage. Winners have come from just
about every place else, including Europe, Kentucky and, including
last year’s winner and ultimate champion Lady Eli, from New York.
MAIN CONTENDERS: Irish-bred ILLUMINATE has won all
but one start, and one of them was a Group 3 vs. 17 rivals. This
filly carries her course with her, having won over three different
racetracks, and while she’s untested over 6 furlongs, she gives
every indication the extra ground won’t be a hindrance. ALICE
SPRINGS invades from the UK with a recent win as a prohibitive
favorite for BC veteran Aidan O’Brien. HARMONIZE is 2-for-3 and
really seems to be blossoming for Hall of Famer Bill Mott.
VALUE PLAYS: CATCH A GLIMPSE won the Grade 2 Natalma at
Woodbine with ease despite racing greenly in the stretch, showing
a great turn of foot over good ground after leading throughout the
mile event. The only loss for RUBY NOTION came in her second
start at Ascot. The Wesley Ward runner has otherwise done
everything right and is reminiscent of Ward’s runner-up last year,
Sunset Glow. GLIDING BY made a huge move to win her lone start
despite a slow beginning.

WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $10 Win: CATCH A GLIMPSE ($10)
• $1 Trifecta Box: ILLUMINATE, ALICE SPRINGS,
CATCH A GLIMPSE and HARMONIZE ($24)
• $5 Trifecta Part-Wheel: ILLUMINATE with ALICE SPRINGS and
CATCH A GLIMPSE with ALICE SPRINGS, CATCH A GLIMPSE,
HARMONIZE, RUBY NOTION, GLIDING BY, MIRAGE and
ROBANNE ($60)
• $1 Trifecta Part-Wheel: ILLUMINATE with HARMONIZE with
ALICE SPRINGS, CATCH A GLIMPSE, RUBY NOTION, GLIDING BY,
MIRAGE and ROBANNE ($6)



STATS & TRENDS
Division Debut: 2008
Favorites: Win 14%
In-The-Money 43%
Average Winning Payoffs
$2 Win: $19.51
$1 Exacta: $74.97
$1 Trifecta: $961.37
$1 Superfecta: $11,228.66
2010 Juv. Fillies Turf Highlight:
Trainer Todd Pletcher’s More Than
Real gave the barn a 2-year-old
grass race sweep at Churchill
Downs, after a win by stablemate
Pluck in the Juvenile Turf.
KNOW THIS
The Americans have held serve by
winning five of seven editions of
this race.
Belmont’s Miss Grillo Stakes has
produced a Juvenile Fillies Turf
exacta finisher in six of the last
seven renewals.

Trainer Chad Brown has two wins
and two seconds in five editions
of this race.
The pacesetter has held on for a
piece of the superfecta in five of
seven renewals of this race, but
never has won.
The $1 superfecta average in the
Juvenile Fillies Turf is a whopping
$11,228.66 – largest of any Friday
BC race and second-largest of any
BC turf event (Mile is largest).

Edited October 28, 2015 by Homebrewer

[Homebrewer]

^^^^^^

Might have to throw .10 superfecta wheel in there somewhere.(JUVEE Ladies)

 

Dirt Mile 

 

Liams Map sure looks like an easy winner, wont pay anything but I have a feeling about Wicked Strong to complete at least one of the exotics...that means a speed-fest up front (likely)and the track playing to closers (watching early in the day)

 

Liams Map, with Wicked Strong and Red Vine

 

I haven't seen ML or expected odds anywhere yet. Haven't seen Wicked Strong mentioned at all, so I'm thinking both of those horses will bring some value to the race.

Edited October 28, 2015 by Homebrewer

[Homebrewer]

VALUE PLAYS: If too many of these speed horses go too fast too

soon while battling with others, RED VINE could be the beneficiary

at a square price. After a decent, but underwhelming, career

on the grass, this horse has blown up this year on dirt with four

consecutive triple-digit Beyers.

[Homebrewer]

La Verdad got a nice post draw in the #4 hole there Adam.

 

(and yeah, I have now seen the posts and ML)

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

Anything you notice? bias wise?

Not too much of a surprise but the inside horses 2-4 have been doing well, even long prices.

I believe AP drew 4. I think that's good for her. Doubt she stays 6-5.

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

I've been following Ellis Starr recently and he's doing well at Keeneland. Had a nice monster weekend last weekend. He's picking Effinex to beat AP.

His picks are scattered all over but I may drop at $15 and buy his stuff. Has a knack with the long prices, hit some good supers off his stuff.

If you are on Twitter he is @ubercapper

Edited October 29, 2015 by SOTO

[Homebrewer]

Adam:At first pass, I am LOVING 1-I'm A Chatterbox in the Distaff. Can sit mid-pack and save ground in what looks like a definite pace meltdown. 8-1 on the ML




This is from Expressbet:

Jon White

Selections: (1) I’m a Chatterbox, (2) Got Lucky, (2) Stopchargingmaria

Good Price Play: Frivolous (30-1 morning line)

Comments: Two-time Eclipse Award winner Beholder would have been an overwhelming favorite in this race, but her connections have elected to run her instead in the BC Classic.

I’m a Chatterbox is coming off a two-length victory in the Grade I Cotillion at Parx on Sept. 19. Also, the word is the 3-year-old filly has been training in marvelous fashion at Keeneland. While it is true that this will be I’m a Chatterbox’s first clash with older rivals, I’d say there certainly is a much better chance for a 3-year-old to win the BC Distaff this year without having to run against Beholder.

Got Lucky won Keeneland’s Grade I Spinster on Oct. 4. The 4-year-old A.P. Indy filly has blossomed during the second half of 2015, which does not comes as a surprise inasmuch as offspring by this sire often exhibit a tendency to get better as they get older.

Stopchargingmaria, like I’m a Chatterbox, reportedly has been training quite well at Keeneland. A multiple Grade I winner, she tries to rebound after finishing fourth (behind Sheer Drama, Got Lucky and Untapable) as the 3-2 favorite in the Grade I Personal Ensign at Saratoga on Aug. 29.

Wedding Toast, the 4-1 favorite on Mike Battaglia’s morning line, and Sheer Drama, the 9-2 second choice, must be respected. They both have won a pair of Grade I races this year. But Wedding Toast finished fourth in her only start at Keeneland, while Sheer Drama fared poorly at the draw for post positons. Sheer Drama originally got post No. 14, but will move in a spot to No. 13 following the defection of Untapable, who will not start after she was found to have a “low-grade temperature” Tuesday morning, according to trainer Steve Asmussen.

Edited October 29, 2015 by Homebrewer

[gotbeer]

Beholder out!

[Homebrewer]

Really??

Guess that fever was worse than they told us?

Going over to read about it ..I wasn't so sure she could get a rested AP anyhow...but still, this opens up that race up considerably in a pace and strategy regard.

AP wins this one and he is a "forever" horse...his main pace challenge out, he can go to the lead and wire them.

[gotbeer]

Bleeding in lungs after the morning workout.  

 

Man, that just changed the Classic.

 

Also, according to Weather.com, rain forecast for the morning of Saturday.

[Homebrewer]

Sucks for Beholder's connections, and the racing public(Beholder money from the casual fan will all go to the Triple Crown Winner now,  shudder to think what AP odds go down to now...less than even money probably).

 

I would have bet with her underneath anyhow, simply because of the fever, and the past history of shipping issues. That said, I wouldn't have been a bit sad to lose what small bet I had made in the classic if she won it.
 
Here is an analysis (Jon White again) who already had Beholder thrown out before the scratch. There are plenty of other analysts to read, and I have read a lot of them in the last 24-48 hours, but I like the way this guy thinks, and writes.

$5 MILLION CLASSIC (SATURDAY)

Selections: (1) American Pharoah, (2) Frosted, (3) Tonalist

Good Price Play: Keen Ice (12-1 morning line)

Comments: I picked Bayern to win the 2014 BC Classic. The 3-year-old colt did win and paid $14.20. It was Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert’s first BC Classic victory.

Now, a year later, I am picking another Baffert-trained 3-year-old colt, American Pharoah, to win the 2015 BC Classic and complete what has been dubbed as the sport’s Grand Slam (a Triple Crown sweep and a BC Classic triumph).

By becoming the first 3-year-old in 37 excruciatingly long years to win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont, American Pharoah not only became only the 12th horse to etch his name on the honor roll of Triple Crown winners, he proved he is one tremendous equine athlete.

Yes, American Pharoah is coming off a defeat when the runner-up to Keen Ice in the Grade I Travers at Saratoga on Aug. 19. But, all things considered, American Pharoah actually ran very well in defeat under the circumstances to lose by only three-quarters of a length.

Don’t forget that American Pharoah had gone through the Triple Crown grind and did so much traveling from his Southern California base this year prior to the Travers.

Additionally, American Pharoah expended a lot of energy in an unusually strong gallop the morning before the Travers.

And then, in the Travers, when American Pharoah ran an extraordinarly fast second half-mile, he understandably weakened in the final part of the race. After showing the way while setting moderate preliminary fractions of :24.28 and :24.02 for a :48.30 opening half-mile, American Pharoah then was hounded by Frosted during the next two quarters, which were run in :23.18, :23.60 for a taxing :46.78 second half-mile.

Racing broadcaster Randy Moss researched the :46.78 second half-mile fractional time in the Travers and found it to be unprecedented. It was the fastest second half-mile in very long history of the Travers, which was first run in 1864 (when Abraham Lincoln occupied the White House).

According to Moss, these are the fastest second half-mile fractions ever recorded in the Travers:

Time and Year (Winner)

:46.78 in 2015 (Keen Ice)
:48.00 in 2004 (Birdstone)
:48.00 in 1985 (Chief’s Crown)
:48.00 in 1962 (Jaipur)
:48.12 in 2001 (Point Given)

Following the Travers, Baffert realized that the best way to approach the BC Classic was to back off American Pharoah for a time, then crank him up for America’s richest race on Oct. 31. The colt’s most recent three drills -- each at Santa Anita -- suggest it is all systems go for Saturday’s race at Keeneland: seven furlongs in 1:23 on Oct. 14, six furlongs in 1:10 4/5 on Oct. 20, then four furlongs in :46 3/5 on Monday.

Another reason I’m picking American Pharoah to win the BC Classic is a pace that might unfold favorably for him. It appears he might go right to the front and possibly be allowed to set the pace without being pushed hard by any rival. If that does happen, it will be very difficult to keep American Pharoah out of the winner’s circle. But, importantly, it is not as if American Pharoah can only win if he gets the early lead. He has proven more than once that he can rate kindly and succeed (Arkansas Derby, Kentucky Derby, Haskell).

Frosted also had a right to be knocked out to some extent owing to his furious battle with American Pharoah during the second half-mile of the Travers. But while it was deemed that American Pharoah needed to regroup after the Travers, Frosted came out of the race so well that he returned just three weeks later and won the Grade II Pennsylvania Derby by two lengths at Parx. Not only did Frosted win the Pennsylvania Derby, he tied his best Thoro-Graph figure of negative 2 and posted a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 106. Frosted’s connections hope he can follow in the footsteps of Bayern, who last year followed his win in the Pennsylvania Derby with a BC Classic victory at Santa Anita.

I picked Tonalist third in last year’s BC Classic. I’m doing so again this year. I’d be very tempted to make him my pick to win this year’s BC Classic if it was at Belmont instead of Keeneland. Tonalist’s three most significant victories have come at Belmont (Belmont Stakes last year and Jockey Club Gold Cup both last year and this year). But even at Keeneland, Tonalist should be taken very seriously, if for no other reason than his string of praiseworthy Thoro-Graph figures. It is truly remarkable that Thoro-Graph has assigned him the exact same figure in each of his five races this year (negative 3 3/4).

Watch out for Keen Ice. Many no doubt are going to regard his 16-1 Travers victory as something as a fluke. Also, many will look at the Travers this way: American Pharoah lost it more than Keen Ice won it. But I love the way Keen Ice has shown steady improvement in terms of his Thoro-Graph figures and Beyer Speed Figures.

I also love the way Keen Ice kept getting closer and closer to American Pharoah with each successive encounter prior to the Travers. American Pharoah won the Kentucky Derby, Belmont and Grade I Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park. Keen Ice lost the Derby by 8 3/4 lengths, the Belmont by 7 1/2 lengths and then the Haskell by 2 1/4 lengths before defeating American Pharoah in the Travers.

In the Haskell, Keen Ice ran a sneaky good race. Hardly anyone noticed that Keen Ice came home with such gusto that he ran the final furlong in :12.96, while American Pharoah ran the final eighth in :13.51. It’s perfectly understandable most of the attention in the Haskell was focused on American Pharoah because of his status as the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. And even though Keen Ice ran the final furlong of the Haskell faster than American Pharoah, American Pharoah did win the race with ridiculous ease.

But Keen Ice’s good late surge in the Haskell served as a warning as to what he might do in the Travers. Not only that, Dale Romans, who trains Keen Ice, felt the colt was poised to run a biggie in the Travers by the way the colt acted and trained after the Haskell.

“He just started training like he was the man, like he had figured it out,” Romans said. “He was getting a little bit arrogant around the barn, feeling good all the time. I knew he was poised for a big race.”

Romans said to Daily Racing Form’s Mike Welsch that Keen Ice had gone into the Haskell “a Volkswagen and came out a Ferrari.”

Keen Ice also has what you might call a “BC Classic pedigree” in that he is by Curlin (winner of the 2007 BC Classic) out of a mare by Awesome Again (winner of the 1998 BC Classic).

As you may have noticed, I am not picking Beholder first, second or third. Look, I have oodles of respect for the two-time Breeders’ Cup winner who annihilated males with her 8 3/4-length triumph in the Grade I Pacific Classic at Del Mar on Aug. 22. If Beholder does run like that again this Saturday, she certainly can join Zenyatta as the only two females to win the BC Classic. But I am not sold that Beholder is going to replicate her Pacific Classic performance this Saturday. And if Beholder does not win, I think there is a pretty good chance she will not hit the board.

American Pharoah is the 6-5 favorite on Battaglia’s BC Classic morning line, with Beholder listed at 3-1 and Tonalist at 6-1. Some people I know expect Beholder to win. And I will not be surprised if that happens. But earlier this year, I not only picked American Pharoah to win the Kentucky Derby, I stated in the Louisville Courier-Journal before that race that he “reminds me of Seattle Slew” and “just might sweep the Triple Crown.”

And now I am going with American Pharoah to become the first horse to win America’s Grand Slam of Thoroughbred racing.

Edited October 29, 2015 by Homebrewer

[Homebrewer]

If I'm sitting with a nice profit by the time the Classic rolls around, I'm going with an AP-Keen ice exacta wheel and back (heavier on the AP side, of course.

Cover if AP wins, score if Keen Ice does. 

[gotbeer]

Here are your losers for Saturday.  

 

Race 1  Open

1 Hebbronville moving down.  6f specialist  

 

Race 2  Open

5 Dan the Go to Man  did well on the slop last time out.

 

Race 3

10 Songbird  Should win for fun. Hopefully east coast bets on Rachel's.

 

Race 4

5 Lady Shipman speed horse.  Might be good with less than favorable conditions

14 Mongolian Saturday  L/S on a off track

 

Race 5

4 La Verdad  Can she wheel back after a week?  

 

Race 6

3 Legatissimo  Lasix.  Turf and European.  

11 Stephanie's Kitten.  Long Shot.  Last out 102 Brisnet on a soft course.  

 

Race 7 Open

5 Runhappy  hasn't done anything wrong.  Won last time at Keenland at distance in the slop.  

 

Race 8

11 Karakontie L/S  Defending Champion.  If you look at his PP, 2 clunkers than won the BCMile last year.  He comes into this years race with 2 clunkers.  At 12/1 might be worth the risk.

 

Race 9 Open

7 Brodys Cause  Last out, winner on mud at distance at Keenland.  

Side Note, was not impressed with Nyquist's last race.

 

Race 10

1 Golden Horn  Just wins.  and on an off track. 

 

Race 12

8 Dr Fagers Gal  has won with stakes types.  Won on a good track also.  

 

Race 11

Beholder was my top pick.  But now.

 

Chasing the money.

1 Tonalist Closer.  

9 Honor Code

i think these two will close it.

 

Superfecta

19/194/19472 $2.40

4/19/1972 $$1.20

19/19/All/All $$8.40

 

Trifecta 

19/19/all $7

[Adam]

I like Illuminate too.

 

I'll share all my picks here tomorrow. I'm feeling good this year. My goal is to make $1500 with a budget of $250

[Homebrewer]

Mudder report!

Thanks..

 

Agree with Songbird, but cant find a scenario where I can pair up the short odds winner with someone else I feel confident enough about for an exotics bet.

 

Honor code is a hell of a horse, been trying to figure a way to work into bet.

Depends how deep my pockets are at that point. 

[Homebrewer]

My goal is to make $1500 with a budget of $250

If there is a day (OK it's two but it's one with a break to sleep, to me) to do that, it's the BC.