Thoroughbred Racing

[gotbeer]

I like 50 cent tri's and pick 3s along with $1 doubles and pick 6s.  Wish Santa Anita would get with the program.  

[Adam]

I would double the amount of $ I play if So Cal had $0.50 pick 3s. 

[Homebrewer]

.50 trifectas are my favorite bet, also.

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

I'm liking Sheik of Shieks in this Keeneland 8th.

[Adam]

Welp, any thought I had of getting 8-1 on Tonalist in the classic evaporated quickly with his absolute destruction of the field in the JCGC. 

 

Updated M/L

American Pharoah - 5/2

Tonalist 7/2

Honor Code 5-1

Beholder 6-1

Liam's Map 8-1

Wicked Strong 12-1

Frosted 15-1

Keen Ice 15-1

Gleneagles 15-1

Smooth Roller 25-1

Coach Inge 30-1

Effinex 30-1

Hard Aces 50-1

[Adam]

Liam's Map to the Dirt Mile

 

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/94965/liams-map-to-breeders-cup-dirt-mile

 

Helps AP and Beholder big time. 

[Adam]

Wicked Strong also rumored to be going to the Mile

[Adam]

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/pedigree_power/Keys_to_the_2015_Breeders_Cup_Juvenile_Turf_123#

[Homebrewer]

Liams Map was a worry horse that I probably wouldn't have used (deep horizontals maybe)but would have feared greatly.

Glad he moved to the mile...because now I will be able to put some money on.

Best day of racing, and by FAR the best betting day of the year.

Cant wait.

[Adam]

Welp, any thought I had of getting 8-1 on Tonalist in the classic evaporated quickly with his absolute destruction of the field in the JCGC. 

 

Updated M/L

American Pharoah - 5/2

Tonalist 7/2

Honor Code 5-1

Beholder 6-1

Liam's Map 8-1

Wicked Strong 12-1

Frosted 15-1

Keen Ice 15-1

Gleneagles 15-1

Smooth Roller 25-1

Coach Inge 30-1

Effinex 30-1

Hard Aces 50-1

 

http://www.drf.com/events/breeders-cup-classic

 

Here's the Watchmaker M/L

 

So much will depend on how they bet AP. 8-5 seems super short to me. 

[gotbeer]

AP and Beholder will get hammered.  So that means the rest of the field will look really really juicy.  

[Adam]

Total spread race. Assuming I play a pick 3 into that leg I'll include: AP, Beholder, Honor Code, Tonalist, Keen Ice, Gleneagles and Smooth Roller

[Homebrewer]

Tri and Super race, for sure..

[Ohtaniland]

Headed to Santa Anita for some Sunday ponies. 

[gotbeer]

Headed to Santa Anita for some Sunday ponies. 

 

Have fun.  Should be a nice day for the ponies.  

[Ohtaniland]

Have fun.  Should be a nice day for the ponies.  

 

Any early birds?

[Adam]

Some decent prices yesterday. Hope you had a score, Claude. 

[Adam]

There looks to be some pretty likely winners at the BC.

 

Songbird 

Liam's Map 

Golden Horn

 

I think Liam's Map is the most likely to lose of those three. A lot of speed signed on in the dirt mile and it is a weird configuration at Keenland. Watch out for Tapiture, who won a GIII on 9/26 at a big price. 

[gotbeer]

The more I'm thinking about it.  The more that Beholder may not show up in the money.  From what I hear, he's still training at Santa Anita.  For a horse that doesn't travel well.  (I believe he has won every race in California, and lost every race outside of California)  Training and shipping the week before is not a good sign.  

 

I believe same goes with AP.  But he has won outside of California.  

 

That leaves a juicy payout left.  

[Adam]

Beholder is a she. And she doesn't ship well at all. 2 races outside of California. A 4th at Belmont and a 2nd at Churchill.

 

Would definitely not play a win wager on her. Nor AP for that matter. 

[gotbeer]

I know beholder is a she.  I call horses either way.  It drives people nuts.  

 

Any angles going on at Keenland?  I haven't been following them at all.  Speed, stalkers, closers, deep closers?  

 

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=184

 

This is what Brisnet says for the last 2 weeks.  If I remember right, E/P is a stalker type horse.  And P is a closer.

[Adam]

Ugh! Stupid new firewall won't let me get to that site.

 

I've not been following Keenland too closely, but from what I hear it has been pretty fair. Remember, it was a synth track for a while as well. 

[gotbeer]

Ugh! Stupid new firewall won't let me get to that site.

 

I've not been following Keenland too closely, but from what I hear it has been pretty fair. Remember, it was a synth track for a while as well. 

 

KEENELAND AT A GLANCE  

Avg. Winning Odds: 4.88 - 1

Favorite Win%: 43%, 

Favorite Itm%: 69%  

 

EXOTICS PAYOFF

Exacta 81.07

Daily Double 79.58

Trifecta 532.10

Pick 3 514.34

Superfecta 3,377.42

Pick 6 20,147.25

Pick 4 3,689.23

Pick 5 47,991.82

Super High Five 12,714.60

 

TRACK BIAS MEET(10/02 - 10/18) Distance #

Race % Wire Best Style Best Posts  

6.0fDirt 31 19% E/P Outside  

7.0fDirt 11 27% E/P Middle  

1 1/16mDirt 23 22% E/P Inside  

1 1/8mDirt 8 13% E/P Inside  

Turf Sprint 3 0% P Mid/Out  

Turf Routes 24 8% E/P Middle  

 

TRACK BIAS WEEK(10/12 - 10/18) Distance #

Race % Wire Best Style Best Posts  

6.0fDirt 12 17% E Outside  

7.0fDirt 7 29% E Mid/Out  

1 1/16mDirt 7 29% E/P Rail/Ins  

1 1/8mDirt 2 0% P Rail/Ins  

Turf Sprint 2 0% P Mid/Out  

Turf Routes 9 11% P Rail  

 

Who's HOT, Who's NOT  

HOT TRAINERS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.

Odds Winning

Favorites '14-' 15

Win%

Ward Wesley A. 15 6 2 2 3.13 5 22%

Morse Randy L. 8 3 1 0 7.59 2 14%

McLaughlin Kiaran P. 4 2 0 1 1.60 1 23%

Tomlinson Michael A. 4 2 1 0 4.98 1 17%  

 

HOT JOCKEYS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.

Odds Winning

Favorites '14-' 15

Win%

Leparoux Julien R. 32 9 3 4 6.29 5 15%

Lopez Paco 11 3 1 3 12.55 2 21%

Hill Channing 12 3 3 0 12.48 2 14%  

 

COLD TRAINERS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.

Odds Beaten

Favorites '14-' 15

Win%

LoPresti Charles 11 0 1 1 25.94 0 14%  

 

COLD JOCKEYS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.

Odds Beaten

Favorites '14-' 15

Win%

Rocco, Jr. Joseph 12 0 1 1 11.22 0 11%

 

Edited October 19, 2015 by gotbeer

[mrwicked]

Ugh! Stupid new firewall won't let me get to that site.

 

I've not been following Keenland too closely, but from what I hear it has been pretty fair. Remember, it was a synth track for a while as well. 

 

corporate firewall?

those are usually pretty easy to get around if you were so inclined.

Edited October 20, 2015 by mrwicked

[Adam]

I've already told them to disable on my unit. Just waiting