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Thoroughbred Racing


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My Derby Top 5


Dortmund
International Star
Mubtaahij
Frosted
Tencendur

 

(I don't think International Star has a great chance to win, but if I had to make one show bet, it'd be on him. Tencendur...he's been in a lot of traffic, shown different running styles and might be the one to make the biggest step up. At 50-1, I'm down to find out.) 

Also using
American Pharoah
Firing Line
Upstart

My primary play
Trifecta - 8 / 6,10,12,15 / 3,4,6,9,10,12,15,18-20

 

I've got slightly smaller tris w/Mub, AP, Frosted keyed on tops. Also alive to a future bet. Dortmund w/Frosted exacta for $940. Capp'n the rest of the card rt now. Going to get some multis in tomorrow morning. 

 

American Pharoah may destroy the field, but 2-1 ain't going to work for me and there is a good chance he can't make 10F and a better chance he's wide throughout. He's only passed 1 horse in his entire career and he's never been outside of the 6 post. He's starting from the grandstand and if he gets the lead its going to take a lot of work. And if he doesn't, I don't think he's going to like the kick back. 

Edited by Adam
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I'm playing Race 7 - 11

 

Race 7: Dame Dorothy - 2 for 2 at distance. Improving. Judy The Beauty is the fastest horse but will be short. 2 horse race IMO

 

Race 8: Lady Lara beat the top contenders in here in her last. 2nd off the layoff should see her take another step forward. Sandiva & (longshot) Strike Charmer will also be on my ticket. 

 

Race 9: Bayern should beat this field. Tossing Private Zone. The others coming out of the GP Handicap have flopped badly. Might throw Pants on Fire on a ticket for some value. 

 

Race 10: Stephanie's Kitten is a Mare facing the boys, but I think she's the best horse in the race. Slumber should make his own trip and be a nice price. 

 

Race 7-9 PK3 - 3,8 / 4,5,8,11 / 2,5

Race 9-11 PK 3 - 2 /1,5,7 8,11 / 4,6,8,12,15

Race 9-11 2nd Ticket - 5 / 5,7,8,11 / 18

 

EDIT: It is far too likely that chalk reigns in 7-9. I think I'll pass and go deeper in 9-11. 

Edited by Adam
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Watching great story about jockey Gary Stevens return from knee surgery and pain-pills...

 

I've got Firing Line, Danzig Moon, and Upstart.  Of course, I'm an amateur horse-race follower so I usually go for the names!  (sometimes the jockeys too tho).  With that in mind, my longshot is Bolo (Be On the Look Out; cop jargon).

 

Is anybody at a Derby party?  Ever been to the race?!  It's on my bucket list for sure!

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Had a small safety exacta bet.  Unfortunately, I didn't continue playing that safety bet for the tri and super since I had all 5 horses, and I'm cheap so instead of covering the bet, I cut out International Star and cut my bet.  

 

Got to give it up to Pharoah though.  He proved he belonged.  It was a huge win for him, that he made look easy.  And it was a non Bayern, clean race.  He does have a shot.  

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Chalkiest derby I've ever been a part of. Don't mind losing to chalk. Had the top 4 in everything but didn't have firing line in either of the first two spots.

Disappointed in Dortmund. No excuses. Had it all his own way. Went really slow on the front end.

AP will be 1-5 in the Preakness. I hope Frosted sits for the Preakness and comes back for the Belmont. I'll be betting him heavily if so.

Re: Private Zone - he was the only one out of the GP Handicap to fire next out. Honor Code absolutely flopped on Friday.

Looking back Dame Dorothy was probably the best play of the day and I only included her in multis. Had a double with Jack Milton to AP but Milton lost a photo.

Lol @ Pletcher

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I think it makes sense for all of them. I don't think anything will change unless one of the three completely change tactics. Competitive Edge and Divining Rod might have something to say about it though. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

1 American Pharoah 4-5

2 Dortmund 3-1

3 Mr Z 20-1

4 Danzig Moon 15-1

5 Tale of Verve 50-1

6 Bodhistaava 30-1

7 Diving Rod 15-1

8 Firing Line 7/2

 

Not a terrible ML, but I think:

 

1 American Pharoah 1-2

2 Dortmund 3-1

3 Mr Z 32-1

4 Danzig Moon 10-1

5 Tale of Verve 50-1

6 Bodhistaava 40-1

7 Diving Rod 8-1

8 Firing Line 3-1

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