Question for the board mathematicians: how is Oakland's % of likelihood to make the playoffs higher than the Halos'?

[Fontana Halo]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/sort/playoffPercent/order/true

 

 

We're at 98.2% and they're at 98.5% despite the fact we're two games up and we've both played the same exact amount of games. Am I missing something?

[mulwin444]

Probably factoring in run differencial...

[Guest]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/sort/playoffPercent/order/true

 

 

We're at 98.2% and they're at 98.5% despite the fact we're two games up and we've both played the same exact amount of games. Am I missing something?

I think it considers future matchups -- odds to win a game vary depending on the team vs team pairing. That meanas they think the A's have a weaker schedule moving forward.

[Angelsjunky]

Without having read the article, it is probably based upon expected run differential.

[tdawg87]

It's based on tWTW.

 

Also, someone please post that "Tarpy Says" pic, but please give me all the likes for it because it was totally my idea I just don't have the pic thanks bye

[mancini79]

Probably the same moronic reason why WAR has Donaldson with the 4th highest in MLB among position players.

[nando714]

We're really asking about .3%

Edited August 22, 2014 by nando714

[tdawg87]

Probably the same moronic reason why WAR has Donaldson with the 4th highest in MLB among position players.

 

He actually leads the majors in bWAR. It's hilarious. Dude has a .251 batting average and an .800 OPS even, and he has a higher WAR than Trout and Stanton.

 

Then there's Heyward, who has the exact same WAR as Trout, yet he has a .746 OPS and 10 homeruns.

 

Until shit like that gets fixed (mainly the defensive WAR aspect), WAR will no longer be taken seriously by me.

Edited August 22, 2014 by tdawg87

[floplag]

tdawg, you are dead right!  (did i really just say that... )
These stats are not the absolutes people think they are and are certainly dont tell the story accurately when you look at examples such as what you have listed.

[arch stanton]

Strength of schedule remaining.

[laagamer]

Maybe Richards' leg imploding has something to do with it...

[Hubs]

The problem with WAR lies in the positional adjustments. They add runs to the formula for games played (out of 150 games) at 2B, SS, CF, 3B, and C whilst taking away runs from LF, RF, 1B, and DH. Theoretically a replacement player at one of these positions is easier to find. Except its not. Historically, players up the middle were more concerned with defense, than offense and your power positions were corner OF and 1B. The positional adjustment is based on games played at the position/ 150 x the adjustment, so when a guy plays well defensively for a few games out of position, it helps his cause. Also shifts really increase the fielding range component of guys like Donaldson, because it looks like he made play from SS. They made an adjustment for Brett Lawrie a few years ago because they moved him to the second base side of the bag and the RF was ridiculously affecting his WAR.

These adjustments make comparing one players WAR to another at a different position not easy because, they're theoretically not being compared to the same replacement player... They try to even it out but there are always outliers. A guy hitting .251 should not be topping the charts but he plays 3B and that helps him.

If I'm right on this, these are not adjusted to the fielding metric which would make sense, they're added to the batting component.

[tomsred]

Strength of schedule remaining.

I think this is it.  They also have one more home game than we do.

[Ohtaniland]

Stomper (guy in the elephant costume) > Rally Monkey.

[Angel Oracle]

He actually leads the majors in bWAR. It's hilarious. Dude has a .251 batting average and an .800 OPS even, and he has a higher WAR than Trout and Stanton.

 

Then there's Heyward, who has the exact same WAR as Trout, yet he has a .746 OPS and 10 homeruns.

 

Until shit like that gets fixed (mainly the defensive WAR aspect), WAR will no longer be taken seriously by me.

That's why I try to take all stats into consideration to find a commonality.

[Adam]

x = rob neyer in the equation

[floplag]

remaining schedule... hmm, lets see, aside from the shares divisional opponents, the A's get the Phillies (441) and the White Sox (465), while we get Miami (500) and Minnesota (444).  We have that one random game with Cle (508)

 

Neither one of us has any playoff teams left except divisional games, 10 versus each other, we have 7 with the Ms, they have 6

 

I dont see a lot of difference there in terms of difficulty or games that you look at as games that either team should lose.  Is it ever so slightly perhaps leaning toward them a bit... but the last month was HUGELY in their favor and we caught and passed them so...

 

 

 

[DW711]

Without looking at other responses..I'll say the schedule, Richards is hurt and the A's lead the series 6-3.

[Guest]

He actually leads the majors in bWAR. It's hilarious. Dude has a .251 batting average and an .800 OPS even, and he has a higher WAR than Trout and Stanton.

 

Then there's Heyward, who has the exact same WAR as Trout, yet he has a .746 OPS and 10 homeruns.

 

Until shit like that gets fixed (mainly the defensive WAR aspect), WAR will no longer be taken seriously by me.

 Not long after the all star break in 2013 baseball reference had Trout as having average defense while Fangraphs had him DFL in defense. 

Trout declined defensively from 2012 to 2013 but he didn't turn from the best defender to the worst, that's just ridiculous.

 

 

The problem with WAR lies in the positional adjustments. They add runs to the formula for games played (out of 150 games) at 2B, SS, CF, 3B, and C whilst taking away runs from LF, RF, 1B, and DH. Theoretically a replacement player at one of these positions is easier to find. Except its not. Historically, players up the middle were more concerned with defense, than offense and your power positions were corner OF and 1B. The positional adjustment is based on games played at the position/ 150 x the adjustment, so when a guy plays well defensively for a few games out of position, it helps his cause. Also shifts really increase the fielding range component of guys like Donaldson, because it looks like he made play from SS. They made an adjustment for Brett Lawrie a few years ago because they moved him to the second base side of the bag and the RF was ridiculously affecting his WAR.

These adjustments make comparing one players WAR to another at a different position not easy because, they're theoretically not being compared to the same replacement player... They try to even it out but there are always outliers. A guy hitting .251 should not be topping the charts but he plays 3B and that helps him.

If I'm right on this, these are not adjusted to the fielding metric which would make sense, they're added to the batting component.

 

If this is the case then my belief that the offensive component of WAR is useful is also wrong. 

Edited August 22, 2014 by ScottLux

[sneaky_flute]

There seems to be something off about defensive metrics across the board. 

[chappedman]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

 

They run 1000s of simulations of the remainder of the regular season using run differential, strength of schedule, etc. If a team has a 50% of making the playoffs, that just means that the team made the "playoffs" in 50% of their simulations.

[Blarg]

It's based on tWTW.

 

Also, someone please post that "Tarpy Says" pic, but please give me all the likes for it because it was totally my idea I just don't have the pic thanks bye