Stock Market: The Thread

[fan_since79]

32 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Fear is winning out again today.     Since I am diversified, I am staying put.   We've already had two giant recession/depression like drops in the market since 2000.

Got to hope this is just fear, and NOT a bear market that will go on and on. 

Most bear markets don't last long, and after they've gone the market tends to recover fairly quickly.

 

[fan_since79]

13 minutes ago, Catwhoshatinthehat said:

Yet despite Black Monday, the S&L crisis, the tech crash and great recession S&P annualized returns from 1986-2016 were 10% with dividends re-invested.  If you're truly diversified and not losing sleep at night none of the daily fluctuations should bother you because they're merely blips on the radar in a long term game.  If you are losing sleep at night over it then your risk tolerance and asset allocation aren't on the same page.  

The balanced funds have proven to be some of the best you can buy. A great fund that I used to own (kicking myself that I sold it some years ago) is T. Rowe Price's Capital Appreciation. A yearly return of 11.29% since 1986 and a very low expense ratio. Unfortunately, it's closed to new investors, but there are other similar funds.

https://www3.troweprice.com/fb2/fbkweb/snapshot.do?ticker=PRWCX

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

Historically ~80% of actively managed funds get outperformed by their respective index so for the 2 balanced funds that did that well over the last 5, 10 and 30 years there's many more that under performed.  If that 11.29% return is before expenses of 0.70% the fund returned about 10.6% over those 30 years which is good but still doesn't beat an S&P500 index fund that charges 0.10-0.20%.  Nothing wrong with balanced funds because they do the work for investors but there's also target retirement funds out there that invest in index funds charging investors less.  In the end the biggest factor is getting started early and taking advantage of compounding returns over time whether you invest in individual stocks, mutual funds, index funds, etc.   

[fan_since79]

Yeah, the S&P index ETF is probably the best way to go, but I've got a T Rowe account so it's easy to put money into those at any time.

I don't currently have a brokerage account to trade stocks, etc.

 

[fan_since79]

Amazon crushed earnings yesterday and was up 8% this morning. It's pulled back a bit since then. 

Currently at $1,575/share. My Mom bought shares in late 2013 at $400. 

Annualized return since 1997 of 38%. 

[mrwicked]

amazon is all aws.

and aws is just an unfathomable juggernaut.

[Lou]

That Y2K really screwed them

Edited April 27, 2018 by Lou

[fan_since79]

5th down day in a row. I'm thinking we might be in a bear market at this point. The battle to hold the line at 24,000 seems to be losing steam.

23,607.36 −317.62 (1.33%)

[mrwicked]

SELL! SELL!

I'm moving into pork bellies. Which is used to make bacon. Which you might find in a bacon, lettuce and tomato sandwich.

[arch stanton]

I’m sticking with the FCOJ

Edited May 4, 2018 by arch stanton

[fan_since79]

So now we're back into the 400-point swings during the trading day.

Dow is above 24,000 again. Like a see-saw up and down. 

[Angel Oracle]

Sybil is alive and well in the stock market.

[fan_since79]

Interesting day today.

The market soared after Trump announced the U.S. and the EU are working on a tariff deal.

Then after hours, Facebook plunged more than 20% on a big earnings miss. 

[Stradling]

I am a good week away from a nice 401k milestone.

[the dude abides]

On 7/25/2018 at 11:27 PM, Stradling said:

I am a good week away from a nice 401k milestone.

Fingers crossed that Trump can stay quiet for long enough to get the screen shot.

[fan_since79]

Amazon hit another all-time high today of $1,880 after a tremendous earnings report.

If you had invested $1,000 in the company back in 1998 you would have $780,000 right now.

Heck, if you'd bought a thousand dollars of the stock in late 2013 you'd have over $6,000 now.

Edited August 3, 2018 by fan_since79

[mrwicked]

On 5/4/2018 at 1:21 PM, Angel Oracle said:

Sybil is alive and well in the stock market.

How about Sybian?

[fan_since79]

Yes, I used to own Apple stock.

And yes, I'm a idiot for selling it way back when.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/02/if-you-invested-1000-dollars-in-apple-10-years-ago-youd-have-this-now.html

[ten ocho recon scout]

Question. I need to pull out some money to do some home repairs and pay a few things off. I can either pull from my deferred comp, or a home equity loan. 

A guy i work with pulled from his comp, and sounded super simple. Cant think of any negatives. Is it a decent time in the market to do that? My fund hasnt been gaining like it was last year anyway.

[Tank]

8 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Question. I need to pull out some money to do some home repairs and pay a few things off. I can either pull from my deferred comp, or a home equity loan. 

A guy i work with pulled from his comp, and sounded super simple. Cant think of any negatives. Is it a decent time in the market to do that? My fund hasnt been gaining like it was last year anyway.

No need to reinvent the wheel... just pull money out of your friends comp account.

[Brandon]

On 8/3/2018 at 7:51 AM, fan_since79 said:

Yes, I used to own Apple stock.

And yes, I'm a idiot for selling it way back when.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/02/if-you-invested-1000-dollars-in-apple-10-years-ago-youd-have-this-now.html

Funny, we all just think you're an idiot regardless of what Apple does.

[Brandon]

21 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Question. I need to pull out some money to do some home repairs and pay a few things off. I can either pull from my deferred comp, or a home equity loan. 

A guy i work with pulled from his comp, and sounded super simple. Cant think of any negatives. Is it a decent time in the market to do that? My fund hasnt been gaining like it was last year anyway.

Just check the tax ramifications. I'm not a fan of HELOC's now that the new Trump tax plan doesn't allow the write off. But like my cousin, if you only need a couple grand (he wanted to finish off his student loan) it's a quick fix and I think the interest rates are low on them. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

11 hours ago, Brandon said:

Just check the tax ramifications. I'm not a fan of HELOC's now that the new Trump tax plan doesn't allow the write off. But like my cousin, if you only need a couple grand (he wanted to finish off his student loan) it's a quick fix and I think the interest rates are low on them. 

Gotcha.

My only hangup (more just need to figure out) is whether financially it makes sense. Like would whatever penalty (taxes, loss of interest in the investment) outweigh the difference of if i did a home equity loan, and what that would cost me.

[UndertheHalo]

On 8/4/2018 at 8:20 PM, ten ocho recon scout said:

Gotcha.

My only hangup (more just need to figure out) is whether financially it makes sense. Like would whatever penalty (taxes, loss of interest in the investment) outweigh the difference of if i did a home equity loan, and what that would cost me.

Several benefits associated with a HELOC.  1: as far as lending borrowing against your home in the consumer sphere is about as cheap as rates are going to get for you.  Right now prime is at 5%.  I know in so cal they’re offering loans as low as 4.9%.  Potentially lower if you can find a promotion.  HELOCs are 30 year loans, so potentially your payment could be quite low.  Especially if you qualify for interest only payments during the draw period (first 10 years) 

the other thing to consider is that if you’re doing home improvement, unexpected costs may arise.  A revolving line of credit is pretty useful and convenient for that.  

Finally, I think it’s a good idea to have a HELOC no matter what just as an emergency plan.  You never know when something unexpected may come up.  It’s nice to have that available and ready to go if something happens and you find yourself in trouble.  There may be a nominal fee.  100 bucks or less annually.  But for me, that’s nothing for peace of mind.  And often, you can get that fee waived. 

Good luck man !

Edited August 8, 2018 by UndertheHalo

[Brandon]

Do not do an an interest only HELOC.

Once you have your disclosures, namely the Closing Disclosure, I’ll show you why.