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Angels Official Website: Ready or not, Skaggs could be key for Angels


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yah.  not a lot of proofing for that article.  Addison Reed in the Trumbo trade? 

 

The biggest problem for Skaggs and perhaps lesser so for Richards and Santiago isn't going to be talent/stuff. 

 

This rotation actually has quite a bit of talent.  All five guys could put up numbers equivalent to #2/3 starters.

 

The problem is that none of those three will likely do it over an entire season.  If they have made all of their starts thru Aug then by september, they are going to be gassed and that will suck for a playoff stretch if there is one. 

 

The most important piece on this team isn't Tyler Skaggs.  It's the bullpen. 

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"The most important piece on this team isn't Tyler Skaggs.  It's the bullpen."

 

Which so far this spring looks very promising. Still waiting for Burnett to show us what he's got. He could be just as important, if not more important, than Skaggs.  Dipoto has set up a nice competitive battle for the open bullpen spots. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

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yah.  not a lot of proofing for that article.  Addison Reed in the Trumbo trade? 

 

The biggest problem for Skaggs and perhaps lesser so for Richards and Santiago isn't going to be talent/stuff. 

 

This rotation actually has quite a bit of talent.  All five guys could put up numbers equivalent to #2/3 starters.

 

The problem is that none of those three will likely do it over an entire season.  If they have made all of their starts thru Aug then by september, they are going to be gassed and that will suck for a playoff stretch if there is one. 

 

The most important piece on this team isn't Tyler Skaggs.  It's the bullpen.

yah.  not a lot of proofing for that article.  Addison Reed in the Trumbo trade? 

 

The biggest problem for Skaggs and perhaps lesser so for Richards and Santiago isn't going to be talent/stuff. 

 

This rotation actually has quite a bit of talent.  All five guys could put up numbers equivalent to #2/3 starters.

 

The problem is that none of those three will likely do it over an entire season.  If they have made all of their starts thru Aug then by september, they are going to be gassed and that will suck for a playoff stretch if there is one. 

 

The most important piece on this team isn't Tyler Skaggs.  It's the bullpen.

This! We can have the best bullpen in baseball but it needs to be used correctly. Hope mike has been watching video ofBochy and matheny
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As I've said before, I think Skaggs is going to open some eyes. Remember that just a year ago he was a top 10 or 12 prospect in baseball and labeled a future #2. He had some stutters in 2013 but he's still the same pitcher, and someone said he was hitting 95 in Spring Training.

 

I think, though, that people are expecting too much from Santiago, probably based upon his ERA from last year. He had a 3.56 ERA last year, but a 4.44 FIP, which is (usually) a better indicator of future success. I think we'll be very lucky to see his ERA below 4.00 this year.

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I think, though, that people are expecting too much from Santiago, probably based upon his ERA from last year. He had a 3.56 ERA last year, but a 4.44 FIP, which is (usually) a better indicator of future success. I think we'll be very lucky to see his ERA below 4.00 this year.

 

He's posted FIPs in line with or below his actual ERA pretty consistently in the minors.  Given his split usage (SP/RP), and somewhat limited sample at the MLB level it may be premature to put too much weight in either his ERA or his FIP last year.

Edited by Inside Pitch
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Skaggs is key for sure. The rotation isn't in shambles, the three returning starters pitched to a 3.52 ERA in 74 starts last season. If you project out Richards and Weaver to full time rotation spots, you're in the neighborhood of 96 starts at a 3.52 ERA. That's 237 runs.

 

The 4th and 5th spots (plus 6th) are going to give you then 66 starts. If these two (or three) guys are going to pitch to a 4.75 ERA thats around 3 runs per start (at say 5 2/3 IP per start). That would be another 198 runs, and 435 overall.

 

Add 175 ER from an improved pen and you're at 610 Earned runs. Add in the 50 or so unearned runs they average over the course of a season and you're at 660 runs. 

 

Which is a good season, above the league average of 696, within a few runs of the Yankees, Boston, and Cleveland in 2013.

 

Santiago pitched 23 starts at a 3.51 ERA, giving up 51 runs in 130.2 IP as a starter. That's only 2.22 runs per start in a 5 2/3 inning average. Even if he regresses a lot, he should be able to pitch 27 starts. Say 153 IP, at a 4 ERA.... that's 68 earned runs.

 

If Skaggs pitches to a 4.75 ERA and gives you the same 27 starts, 153 IP, that's another 81 earned runs.

 

That leaves only 12 starts for fill in guys. 12 starts for Blanton/Shoemaker at a 6.6 ERA would give you another 50 runs assuming a 5 2/3 inning average. Add 81 and 68 and you're at 198 runs for the 4th, 5th and 6th spots.

 

Now if Skaggs and Santiago both can pitch to mid 3's ERA… say 3.51 that Santiago did as a starter last year  and Blanton/Shoemaker pitches even to a 5 ERA. That would be 43 less runs, pushing the overall runs down less than 610. That would've put them near the top of the league in 2013.

 

If the Angels don't get the kind of production above, the number of runs will approach 700. Which means the offense will need to score 850 to win 95 games.

 

At 660 and 610, the number of runs needed to win 95 games would be 795 and 740 respectively. 

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Skaggs is key for sure. The rotation isn't in shambles, the three returning starters pitched to a 3.52 ERA in 74 starts last season. If you project out Richards and Weaver to full time rotation spots, you're in the neighborhood of 96 starts at a 3.52 ERA. That's 237 runs.

 

The 4th and 5th spots (plus 6th) are going to give you then 66 starts. If these two (or three) guys are going to pitch to a 4.75 ERA thats around 3 runs per start (at say 5 2/3 IP per start). That would be another 198 runs, and 435 overall.

 

Add 175 ER from an improved pen and you're at 610 Earned runs. Add in the 50 or so unearned runs they average over the course of a season and you're at 660 runs. 

 

Which is a good season, above the league average of 696, within a few runs of the Yankees, Boston, and Cleveland in 2013.

 

Santiago pitched 23 starts at a 3.51 ERA, giving up 51 runs in 130.2 IP as a starter. That's only 2.22 runs per start in a 5 2/3 inning average. Even if he regresses a lot, he should be able to pitch 27 starts. Say 153 IP, at a 4 ERA.... that's 68 earned runs.

 

If Skaggs pitches to a 4.75 ERA and gives you the same 27 starts, 153 IP, that's another 81 earned runs.

 

That leaves only 12 starts for fill in guys. 12 starts for Blanton/Shoemaker at a 6.6 ERA would give you another 50 runs assuming a 5 2/3 inning average. Add 81 and 68 and you're at 198 runs for the 4th, 5th and 6th spots.

 

Now if Skaggs and Santiago both can pitch to mid 3's ERA… say 3.51 that Santiago did as a starter last year  and Blanton/Shoemaker pitches even to a 5 ERA. That would be 43 less runs, pushing the overall runs down less than 610. That would've put them near the top of the league in 2013.

 

If the Angels don't get the kind of production above, the number of runs will approach 700. Which means the offense will need to score 850 to win 95 games.

 

At 660 and 610, the number of runs needed to win 95 games would be 795 and 740 respectively. 

Impressive!!!

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Skaggs had good velocity yesterday. I never saw an official radar gun reading but I assume he was sitting 91-94. Breaking ball looked sharp a few times so that was encouraging.

 

His command was way off in the 3rd inning but that's pretty typical for a starter in his first spring training start. 

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