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2014 ZIPS Projections...


Inside Pitch

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39 team WAR. That has to put them among the better teams, though they have 1 player making up about 1/4 of that total

 

If Weaver, Wilson, Skaggs, and Santiago hit those rates, you have to figure the team performs pretty decently.    ZIPS isn't high on Richards but, again, if you have 4 SPs at 3.82 and below that would be a massive improvement from what we saw last year.

 

This is a good time to point out how off base some of the projections were last year...

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-zips-projections-los-angeles-angels/

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So 39 team WAR is probably our floor. All of those projections are very ''floorish'' expect Trouts WAR which looks like his median (9.5). We'll probably end up being around 45'ish (about half of those additional 6 WAR coming from Pujols/Hamilton imo), which should leave us top 5 in overall team WAR.

Edited by Halos of Anaheim
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Zips thinks our rotation will be very solid. It essentially has Weaver as a good #2, Wilson as a good #3, Skaggs and Santiago as league average pitchers and Richards as a 4/5 guy. I think we're in for a good season if that ends up happening.

The offensive projections look good although I think Freese and Calhoun hit way better than their projections. Howie should hit much higher than .277 also so his other rate stats should bump up as well.

They're right around 40 WAR as a team which means they're close to a 90 win team. That would be great.

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Zips thinks our rotation will be very solid. It essentially has Weaver as a good #2, Wilson as a good #3, Skaggs and Santiago as league average pitchers and Richards as a 4/5 guy. I think we're in for a good season if that ends up happening.

The offensive projections look good although I think Freese and Calhoun hit way better than their projections. Howie should hit much higher than .277 also so his other rate stats should bump up as well.

They're right around 40 WAR as a team which means they're close to a 90 win team. That would be great.

It has Richards as a #6/below league average guy actually.

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So 39 team WAR is probably our floor. All of those projections are very ''floorish'' expect Trouts WAR which looks like his median (9.5). We'll probably end up being around 45'ish (about half of those additional 6 WAR coming from Pujols/Hamilton imo), which should leave us top 5 in overall team WAR.

Are you talking about position player fWAR only?

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Is Richards considered that low based on his inability to be consistent? Or is it a knock on his stuff?

 

Neither..  

 

It's a formula that compares all of his numbers Vs those of players of the same age then adjusts for leagues and park indexes to try to get a picture of how a player might do...   They are simulations, not based on his tools or anything along those lines. So, his flipping back and forth between the rotation and the pen isn't taken into account so those sorts of splits in performance can lead to oddball comps and projections

Edited by Inside Pitch
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It has Richards as a #6/below league average guy actually.

It has him as having a similar season to last year with 40+ games about half of which are starts.  I think they are just going by previous performance of him bouncing back and forth.  Otherwise, they are predicting him to be sent to the pen after being a starter.  I could see him having a low to mid 4's era but with 30 starts which would give him much more value than doing that as a reliever. 

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This is a year or two old but still relevant. http://battlingbucs.wordpress.com/2012/10/17/the-average-starting-pitcher/

 

People here always seem to overestimate how good a pitcher should be in a particular slot, except for maybe #1's. CJ Wilson was definitely a good #2 last year.

 

Basically, by that definition, Richards should be a #4 with these projections. Even assuming that the #5 average is skewed because of outliers (really bad pitchers given a shot on bad teams, injuries, etc.), he still would project to a #5 with the ZIPS projections, which are slightly pessimistic IMO.

 

It's getting old seeing people say a guy with a low-mid 4's ERA is garbage.

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