2014 ZIPS Projections...

[Inside Pitch]

Someone break the news to Ron Washington that people are comparing Trout to Mantle again...

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-zips-projections-los-angeles-angels/

Edited January 24, 2014 by Inside Pitch

[rick99gtp]

Skaggs #1 comparison is Paul Maholm.

 

Get er done Dipoto.

[mulwin444]

Will Trout be fat and unclutch again this season?

[bloodbrother]

39 team WAR. That has to put them among the better teams, though they have 1 player making up about 1/4 of that total

[Inside Pitch]

39 team WAR. That has to put them among the better teams, though they have 1 player making up about 1/4 of that total

 

If Weaver, Wilson, Skaggs, and Santiago hit those rates, you have to figure the team performs pretty decently.    ZIPS isn't high on Richards but, again, if you have 4 SPs at 3.82 and below that would be a massive improvement from what we saw last year.

 

This is a good time to point out how off base some of the projections were last year...

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-zips-projections-los-angeles-angels/

[Halos of Anaheim]

So 39 team WAR is probably our floor. All of those projections are very ''floorish'' expect Trouts WAR which looks like his median (9.5). We'll probably end up being around 45'ish (about half of those additional 6 WAR coming from Pujols/Hamilton imo), which should leave us top 5 in overall team WAR.

Edited January 24, 2014 by Halos of Anaheim

[Brent Maguire]

Zips thinks our rotation will be very solid. It essentially has Weaver as a good #2, Wilson as a good #3, Skaggs and Santiago as league average pitchers and Richards as a 4/5 guy. I think we're in for a good season if that ends up happening.

The offensive projections look good although I think Freese and Calhoun hit way better than their projections. Howie should hit much higher than .277 also so his other rate stats should bump up as well.

They're right around 40 WAR as a team which means they're close to a 90 win team. That would be great.

[Halos of Anaheim]

Zips thinks our rotation will be very solid. It essentially has Weaver as a good #2, Wilson as a good #3, Skaggs and Santiago as league average pitchers and Richards as a 4/5 guy. I think we're in for a good season if that ends up happening.

The offensive projections look good although I think Freese and Calhoun hit way better than their projections. Howie should hit much higher than .277 also so his other rate stats should bump up as well.

They're right around 40 WAR as a team which means they're close to a 90 win team. That would be great.

It has Richards as a #6/below league average guy actually.

[sneaky_flute]

So 39 team WAR is probably our floor. All of those projections are very ''floorish'' expect Trouts WAR which looks like his median (9.5). We'll probably end up being around 45'ish (about half of those additional 6 WAR coming from Pujols/Hamilton imo), which should leave us top 5 in overall team WAR.

Are you talking about position player fWAR only?

[Stradling]

Is Richards considered that low based on his inability to be consistent? Or is it a knock on his stuff?

[Caralho]

It's probably a knock on his strikeout ability.

[Inside Pitch]

Is Richards considered that low based on his inability to be consistent? Or is it a knock on his stuff?

 

Neither..  

 

It's a formula that compares all of his numbers Vs those of players of the same age then adjusts for leagues and park indexes to try to get a picture of how a player might do...   They are simulations, not based on his tools or anything along those lines. So, his flipping back and forth between the rotation and the pen isn't taken into account so those sorts of splits in performance can lead to oddball comps and projections

Edited January 24, 2014 by Inside Pitch

[Halos of Anaheim]

Are you talking about position player fWAR only?

No, it has us at 39 overall fWAR (hitters, starting pitching and bullpen). I think we'll probably be around 45 fWAR.

[Brent Maguire]

It has Richards as a #6/below league average guy actually.

I misread his projection. I think that's a little low on him. I think he's more of a #4 guy.

[Halos of Anaheim]

I misread his projection. I think that's a little low on him. I think he's more of a #4 guy.

Me too, or at least a very solid #5. I'm not as high on him as others are (looking at you Scotty) but I think he'll put together his best season yet for us this year (that's not saying much though).

[Docwaukee]

It has Richards as a #6/below league average guy actually.

It has him as having a similar season to last year with 40+ games about half of which are starts.  I think they are just going by previous performance of him bouncing back and forth.  Otherwise, they are predicting him to be sent to the pen after being a starter.  I could see him having a low to mid 4's era but with 30 starts which would give him much more value than doing that as a reliever. 

[Count Orlok]

If those pitching numbers are right then they've got a pretty solid but completely unspectacular staff.

[Erstad Grit]

It could be misplaced but I'm really high on Richards. I see him as a number 3 guy. It's one of the reasons the Blanton contract confused me so much. 

[gurn67]

If those offensive projections are anywhere close, this is going to be another looooong year of double plays and runners stranded in scoring position.

[stevestevens]

It could be misplaced but I'm really high on Richards. I see him as a number 3 guy. It's one of the reasons the Blanton contract confused me so much.

I don't think he is consistent enough yet to be a number 3.

[KingJustinian]

This is a year or two old but still relevant. http://battlingbucs.wordpress.com/2012/10/17/the-average-starting-pitcher/

 

People here always seem to overestimate how good a pitcher should be in a particular slot, except for maybe #1's. CJ Wilson was definitely a good #2 last year.

 

Basically, by that definition, Richards should be a #4 with these projections. Even assuming that the #5 average is skewed because of outliers (really bad pitchers given a shot on bad teams, injuries, etc.), he still would project to a #5 with the ZIPS projections, which are slightly pessimistic IMO.

 

It's getting old seeing people say a guy with a low-mid 4's ERA is garbage.

[ukyah]

i don't care for zips myself.

[Erstad Grit]

I don't think he is consistent enough yet to be a number 3.

 

I would suggest allowing him to start a whole season before evaluating his consistency. 

 

My projection, which may be high, is based on his "stuff" 

Edited January 24, 2014 by Erstad Grit

[AngelsLakersFan]

Richards stuff has always been great, but his results have never been there. The Angel are giving him a shot this year but if he doesn't take advantage of it I think it's possible he doesn't get another.

[DW711]

i don't care for zips myself.

 

I don't know...I like how it has six catchers getting at least 260 pa's.