To the people who don't want Tanaka..

[Mark68]

Some items to consider:

 

Over his 7 NPB seasons, Tanaka has averaged 24.6 starts and 188 IP/year. The Japanese leagues do not play as many games as MLB, so it's not like he's throwing an inordinate amount of pitches compared to major leaguers. Most MLB pitchers, when healthy, average 32 starts/year. If his pitch counts can be limited to the neighborhood of 120 pitches/start, I don't foresee any issues with his arm.

 

As for those who feel that giving a pitcher more money than Weaver being an insult to him, get over yourselves. First of all, the price of quality pitching is going up. Inflation is here, folks. Secondly, I don't think Weaver really cares how much someone else makes as long as it gets him closer to a World Series. Do you think he's really that self-centered? If he was, he wouldn't have signed the extension at less-than-market value in the first place.

 

To those who think that signing Tanaka will determine whether Trout gets an extension, I say, wait until we stop paying Wells and Blanton. In other words, this next offseason. That will most likely be the key time for Trout to get paid. Between Blanton and and our share of Wells' remaining contract, $24.1 million comes off the books at the end of 2014.

 

Tanaka is a risk that simply must be taken. This team is in "win now" mode. Garza probably doesn't get us there. Tanaka might.

[Homebrewer]

Since it has been asked many times and never answered, I'll ask again.

Why does he choose to come here?

It will be up to him where he plays.

[Angel Oracle]

Add an expected trade of HK in the next year and $8 million extra freed up along with the $26 million freed up from Wells and Blanton.

[Homebrewer]

Crickets.

Hey, it doesn't matter one bit how much us fans want Tanaka...We will bid along with 8 or 10 others.

The ONLY thing that matters is how much Tanaka wants us.

[Brent Maguire]

I really don't have a lot of concerns with Tanaka.

He looks like a good bet to be a 2/3 guy with his command. His splitter is apparently incredible, he has a good enough fastball and the control is good.

I agree with others about the age thing. He's 25 years old so we don't have to worry about him declining rapidly during the contract.

So we get to sign a potential 2/3 guy whose 25 and doesn't cost a draft pick? Angels should absolutely be all over this.

[Redondo]

I guess the Yankees are the only team thinking about Tanaka

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

 

The only other clubs expected to make a "strong play" for Tanaka are the Cubs, Diamondbacks and Dodgers.

 

Friggen' Dipoto!!!! 

 

Angels could be in stealth mode. Like Hamilton and Pujols signings.

Edited December 26, 2013 by Redondo

[halobob]

Crickets.

Hey, it doesn't matter one bit how much us fans want Tanaka...We will bid along with 8 or 10 others.

The ONLY thing that matters is how much Tanaka wants us.

I believe that Tanaka will want whatever team can offer him the most $$$ (not necessarily only in contract form).

[ten ocho recon scout]

Also AngelsJunky, I stopped caring about the future of this teams payroll after Moreno signed Hamilton last year. He clearly doesn't care, and will spend to win if he has to.

I lean more towards this line of thinking as well. However, as YOT has rightlfully pointed out a few times, we went balls deep into pujols and hamilton and looked like we were big money. We then quietly paid bottom dollar for bottom results in the bullpen and back half of the roation.

So I agree, arte has no problem opening his wallet to nake a splash (and whether we get him or not I know we're all in on tanaka). But for lesser known guys he seems to want to put away the visa.

[Deek]

I'm indifferent on Tanaka (we need an arm that won't cost a draft pick - and I'm all about finding creative solutions)... having said that - in the past 20 years there have been only 4 above average Japanese imports: Hideo Nomo, Ichiro, Kuroda, and Darvish...

 

And I find it laughable when people point out his stats.... They've been accumulated against below average talent...

 

And sentimentally, I do have a problem paying an unproven commodity more $ than Arte's paying Weaver - if Tanaka was a proven number one, I wouldn't have an issue... Weaver made his choice...

[Mark68]

I'm indifferent on Tanaka (we need an arm that won't cost a draft pick - and I'm all about finding creative solutions)... having said that - in the past 20 years there have been only 4 above average Japanese imports: Hideo Nomo, Ichiro, Kuroda, and Darvish...

 

And I find it laughable when people point out his stats.... They've been accumulated against below average talent...

 

And sentimentally, I do have a problem paying an unproven commodity more $ than Arte's paying Weaver - if Tanaka was a proven number one, I wouldn't have an issue... Weaver made his choice...

Iwakuma, Matsui, Uehara, Tazawa...

[mancini79]

Where is everyone wanting Wlademir Balentien? He won the Nippon League MVP!!!!!!

[ten ocho recon scout]

Where is everyone wanting Wlademir Balentien? He won the Nippon League MVP!!!!!!

it would be disrespectful if we paid wlad more than vlad.

[Mattyball1212]

You do not need to throw 100 to get a batter out if you have pitches behind it. Keeping hitters off balance and being able to throw a strike on a 2-0 count with off speed pitch is all you need. Pitching is about getting ahead on the count. Strike one is the most important pitch. Tanaka can and he is a pitcher and not a thrower so even if he loses velocity like Weaver has I believe he will still be successful in the MLB. I would rather have him on the Angels than have to face him pitching against the Angels. Free agents is like Vegas you roll the dice and hope for the best. No matter what they have done in the past doesn't mean they will again. Pujols has been good but so far he hasn't performed like he did in St.Louis. Everyone of us would have signed Pujols if honest with yourself.

[Tyler]

I'd worry about his velocity if he didn't have such exceptional command. 

[Halos of Anaheim]

Let's stop overrating MLB talent and underrating Japanese talent. Ichiro became a better player when he came to the bigs, as have many others. You can't pin down Tanaka as a #3, he could end up being just as good as Darvish or at the very least pretty close. 25 years old, no draft pick, great command (better than Darvish and Iwakuma), and the price of starting pitching is going to get even more expensive.

[Erick McClendon]

Kershaw: Age 25, pitched 1180 IP in the majors, 219 in the minors. 1399 overall (1400 IP basically).

 

Tanaka: Age 25, pitched 1315 IP in the majors, no minors because he started in the Nippoto league at 18 years old. 1315 IP overall.

Does not include the High School Tournaments where guys pitch every day sometimes in Japan. Darvish' father made sure his son was not overworked in HS..

[Erick McClendon]

And who's to say that Kershaw didn't get used more than normal in HS?

Didn't Tanaka's past two seasons surpass even Darvish at his best in Japan?

Different ball used last 2 years in Japan. Hitting numbers down across the board in Japan because of change. His numbers are not better

[Erick McClendon]

Let's stop overrating MLB talent and underrating Japanese talent. Ichiro became a better player when he came to the bigs, as have many others. You can't pin down Tanaka as a #3, he could end up being just as good as Darvish or at the very least pretty close. 25 years old, no draft pick, great command (better than Darvish and Iwakuma), and the price of starting pitching is going to get even more expensive.

Smaller K-zone in MLB as well as more disciplined hitters. Darvish did not walk people in NPB either

[Erick McClendon]

It used to be you could say the season started when Wood and Prior went on the DL. So much talent and yet never realized.

No there were serious concerns with prior's delivery. he had that dreaded Inverted W style release.

[Deek]

Iwakuma, Matsui, Uehara, Tazawa...

 

Mark - you forgot Irabu, Hasegawa and Kazuo Matsui on your list of "average-at-best" Japanese players... My post was only enumerating the 4 above average players...

[Deek]

Let's stop overrating MLB talent and underrating Japanese talent. Ichiro became a better player when he came to the bigs, as have many others. You can't pin down Tanaka as a #3, he could end up being just as good as Darvish or at the very least pretty close. 25 years old, no draft pick, great command (better than Darvish and Iwakuma), and the price of starting pitching is going to get even more expensive.

 

HoA - not sure where you're going with "overrating" and "underrating"... but I do know that every Japanese player that has requested to come to the MLB, has done so to "grow as a player" or "to take the next step"... they all know there's a talent chasm...

 

And then you pin your argument on "he could end up" and "great command (better than Darvish and Iwakuma)"... that smells a little hyperbolic...

[Inside Pitch]

No there were serious concerns with prior's delivery. he had that dreaded Inverted W style release.

 

 

You're talking about his arm action, and people were split on that.  Delivery wise he was about as clean as you could get with almost all the power being brought through his legs.   Prior became the case study for the inverted W argument..   His wiki page even talks about it...

 

Prior's pitching mechanics were the subject of much attention throughout his career. As a prospect, his symmetrical, seemingly effortless delivery was widely regarded as mechanically efficient and sound. Prior's former personal pitching coach Tom House labeled the right-hander a "can't-miss" prospect.^[26] However, after Prior suffered a series of debilitating arm injuries, many experts re-examined Prior's delivery.

As easy and flowing as Prior's pitching mechanics seemed to be, his arm action contained elements that some analysts believed to be hazardous. According to Chris O'Leary, a pitching mechanics analyst, Prior's injury problems were largely derived from his arm action. More specifically, they were due to Prior's Inverted W arm action,^[27] in which he lifted his elbows above and behind the level of his shoulders, with the forearm pointing down. According to O'Leary, this created a timing problem that placed an undue stress on the muscles and ligaments of the shoulder and elbow because the arm got up to the "cocked position" too late.^[28]

Similarly, Dick Mills, a former major league pitcher and co-author of The Science and Art of Baseball Pitching and Pitching.com, speculated that Prior's injuries were a result of a movement known as scapular loading. Scapular loading is a movement in which a pitcher's shoulder blades are pinched together and elbows are taken behind, and sometimes above, their shoulders. The idea that scapular loading is dangerous has been disputed by some in the field of athletic training.

 

Since his injuries, people have popped up all over with some explanation or another as to why he broke down.

Edited December 26, 2013 by Inside Pitch

[Angelsjunky]

"This isn't Darvish with #1-2 potential (and fulfillment), as far as I can tell."

 

Iwakuma was one of the 15 or so best pitchers in baseball last year - a legit #1 on most teams. Did anyone think Iwakuma would pitch like a #1? How about Kuroda? Who thought Kuroda would do this well? Especially at his age?

 

All these labels (#1, #2, #3, etc.) are silly. The truth is, nobody knows how Tanaka is going to do in the majors.

 

I agree that no one knows how Tanaka is going to do, but I'm petty sure that you've got 30ish major league General Managers trying to assess that as best they can, and thousands of armchair GMs doing the same, albeit with less information.

 

The labels are just abstractions and useful to get a sense of a tier of pitcher. I see them as being something like this:

 

#1 - a true ace, possible Cy Young candidate. Sub-3.00 ERA, 5+ WAR.

#2 - a very good pitcher, ERA in 3.00-3.50 range, 3-5 WAR.

#3 - a good pitcher, ERA in 3.50-4.00 range, 2-3 WAR.

#4 - a decent pitcher, ERA in 4.00-5.00 range, 1-2 WAR.

#5 - a filler type, ERA 5.00+, less than 1 WAR.

 

Its important to look at averages over a few years because every pitcher has seasons outside the norm. For instance, Anibal Sanchez has 6.2 WAR in 2013, but his three-year average from 2010-12 was 3.8, so I think he's more of a classic #2 type.

 

Jered Weaver was a #1 for 2010-11 (5.7 WAR in each season, 3.01 and 2.41 ERA) but has dropped since to more of a #2 type. His WAR in 2012 was 2.9 and in 2013 2.4, but in both seasons he missed some starts so if you adjust to 33 starts he'd have a WAR in the 3.2-3.3 range. His ERA has been that of a "#1.5" and his WAR that of a "#2.5" so I see him being a true #2 type.

 

There are only a few true #1 type pitchers in the game. I would say that fulfilling at least two of the following criteria qualifies a pitcher:

- At least 10 WAR over last two years: six pitchers - Verlander, Hernandez, Kershaw, Scherzer, Wainwright, Lee

- At least 6 WAR in 2013: six pitchers - Scherzer, Kershaw, Wainwright, Harvey, Sanchez, Hernandez

- An ERA below 3.00 in the last three years (min 450 IP): four pitchers - Kershaw, Weaver, Lee, Verlander

- An ERA below 2.50 in 2013 (min 150 IP):  three pitchers - Kershaw, Fernandez, Harvey

 

To be clear: these are pretty arbitrary, but the point is having a few different angles on the same question. The only pitcher in baseball that is in all four categories is Clayton Kershaw, who I think we can say has taken over from Justin Verlander as the best pitcher in baseball (who in turn took the baton from Roy Halladay a few years ago). No one is three of four, but six are in two: Scherzer, Verlander, Harvey, Hernandez, Wainwright and Lee, all of whom I think warrant the #1 title. Harvey is tentative because its based just upon one injury-shortened year, but he was so good in that year that's its hard to describe him as anything less than a #1 (if he can return to his former level, of course). Close but no cigar includes Sanchez, Weaver, and Fernandez.

 

So in my opinion there are six true #1 pitchers in baseball: Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer, Hernandez, Wainwright and Lee.

 

I'm going to put Harvey and Fernandez is a "pending" category - #1 ability but not enough of a sample size.

 

I'd also add a middle category, a "#1.5" or "on the cusp" category - for pitchers like Sale and Darvish who may be #1s, but I'd like to see one more season to make sure. Sanchez might fit in this, in that if he has another great year in 2014 he could jump up, but he has a clear track record of being a #2 type.

 

After that you have a host of #2 types: Weaver, Sabathia, Price (yes, Price), Hamels, Fister, Shields, Greinke, Gonzalez, Bumgarner, Bumgarner, Holland, Lester, Wilson, Zimmerman, Strasburg, etc.

 

A year ago I would have said that both Weaver and Sabathia were arguably #1s, and two years ago I would have said both were, but both have declined from their #1-caliber peaks.

 

Way too much information, I know, but I got into it.

[floplag]

it isnt about overpaying, its about overpaying for a complete question mark....
Ive seen a lot of people in this thread talking about stuff and such... do a little research and you can easily find negatives on his tuff.. this guy is NOT Darvish II and is absolutely no guarantee to translate well to MLB.
If this was another Darvish i would be fully behind it.. but based on what ive read he doesnt project to be much better than Garza and will cost maybe twice as much... it isnt about the money its about the return on the investment, this team cant afford any more mistakes

[Halos of Anaheim]

HoA - not sure where you're going with "overrating" and "underrating"... but I do know that every Japanese player that has requested to come to the MLB, has done so to "grow as a player" or "to take the next step"... they all know there's a talent chasm...

 

And then you pin your argument on "he could end up" and "great command (better than Darvish and Iwakuma)"... that smells a little hyperbolic...

You're grasping at straws here. I'm saying that you can't discredit overall play in Japan when a group of players (a small minority, but still a group) have gone on to put up even better stats in the MLB. Nobody is saying that the MLB is inferior to the Japanese league; clearly.

 

In regards to the ''he could end up''/''better command than'' comment, Darvish/Iwakuma are clearly the better overall players right now because they've proven that they can pitch in the MLB, but all I can do is compare Tanaka's stats and scouting report compared to both of those guys coming out. Tanaka has a better command than both of them in that regard.