To the people who don't want Tanaka..

[Homebrewer]

The arm is definitely a concern.  You don't know how he will translate to the MLB workload of less innings more games.  Going every 5 days instead of every 7.  And what damage has pitching all those innings already done?    

 

The other concern I have is him coming to the US and overthrowing the baseball.  You see these big guys up to the plate, and all these AW.com posters saying that power pitching is the only way to go in the MLB.  The big problem with Diaske and with Tanaka are they aren't power pitchers.  Where Darvish was.  If he doesn't adjust or someone pushes him to be something he's not, he can quickly become Daiske.  

 

Regardless of what anyone says, he is not without significant risks.  The question is, is his risk worth the amount of money that will be put up?  IMO, a 6/$90/$110 with posting is worth the risk.  But when you get into the $120-140 range.  You are talking about paying a guy that has never pitched in the MLB close to what we could have paid Greinke.  Heck, you subtract Felix's extra year, and he would make 6/$148.  

Mark Prior. 1st full MLB season, deep into the playoffs.....done

Edited December 25, 2013 by Homebrewer

[Hubs]

Trouts not getting a raise this year if they sign a pitcher. He doesn't need to. The Angels own his rights for four more seasons. I'd advocate a two year extension for cap purposes, but that's unlikely to happen.

[Halos of Anaheim]

The arm is definitely a concern.  You don't know how he will translate to the MLB workload of less innings more games.  Going every 5 days instead of every 7.  And what damage has pitching all those innings already done?    

 

The other concern I have is him coming to the US and overthrowing the baseball.  You see these big guys up to the plate, and all these AW.com posters saying that power pitching is the only way to go in the MLB.  The big problem with Diaske and with Tanaka are they aren't power pitchers.  Where Darvish was.  If he doesn't adjust or someone pushes him to be something he's not, he can quickly become Daiske.  

 

Regardless of what anyone says, he is not without significant risks.  The question is, is his risk worth the amount of money that will be put up?  IMO, a 6/$90/$110 with posting is worth the risk.  But when you get into the $120-140 range.  You are talking about paying a guy that has never pitched in the MLB close to what we could have paid Greinke.  Heck, you subtract Felix's extra year, and he would make 6/$148.  

Your concerns are trivial. Kershaw has pitched just as much innings as Tanaka and is around the same age. It's not like the guys 28 and we're signing him until his mid 30s. His contract will be done when he's 31/32..even if his final couple of years are meh, it's still worth it. 

 

The money is clearly the biggest indicator here, but it isn't yours. And who knows when we'll ever get this chance at acquiring a potential #1-#2 pitcher in FA. Everybody's locking up their guys now, especially at such a young age. Until we can start drafting our own (and even if we do, by then Trout may be gone/Pujols, Weaver, Wilson & Hamilton will be out of their primes). We are in win now mode, if Tanaka pitches to his ability, he helps us now and in the future.

[Halos of Anaheim]

Kershaw: Age 25, pitched 1180 IP in the majors, 219 in the minors. 1399 overall (1400 IP basically).

 

Tanaka: Age 25, pitched 1315 IP in the majors, no minors because he started in the Nippoto league at 18 years old. 1315 IP overall.

[Splint7438]

Weaver gave us the hometown discount. That's the only reason he isn't making 20mil per. If you are worried that tanaka is going to try to overpower teams then you must think he is going somewhere else. Neither weaver or CJ are true power pitchers and yet they are very successful in this park. The philosophy isn't really over powering the opposing team as much as it is to miss their bats. He would fit in here very well IMO.

[tdawg87]

There are concerns of course, but there will be concerns for any pitcher. Garza? He has serious health risks. Name one pitcher available that would make an immediate impact who doesn't have any risk. And if you name the FA class in 2015, that is irrelevant because most of those guys won't even reach the market and if they do, they will cost a draft pick AND cost as much money as Tanaka. Plus they will all be older and come with risk.

Part of making moves is taking risks. That is just how it goes. There is no such thing as a "safe bet". Tanaka could flop but he could also be a great pitcher. That is a risk the Angels need to take.

[Halos of Anaheim]

There are concerns of course, but there will be concerns for any pitcher. Garza? He has serious health risks. Name one pitcher available that would make an immediate impact who doesn't have any risk. And if you name the FA class in 2015, that is irrelevant because most of those guys won't even reach the market and if they do, they will cost a draft pick AND cost as much money as Tanaka. Plus they will all be older and come with risk.

Part of making moves is taking risks. That is just how it goes. There is no such thing as a "safe bet". Tanaka could flop but he could also be a great pitcher. That is a risk the Angels need to take.

Summed up most of my posts in this thread in one paragraph. There are no other ''safe'' alternatives, and the ones that are considered safe will be re-signed immediately because they are just that, safe bets.

[gotbeer]

Kershaw: Age 25, pitched 1180 IP in the majors, 219 in the minors. 1399 overall (1400 IP basically).

 

Tanaka: Age 25, pitched 1315 IP in the majors, no minors because he started in the Nippoto league at 18 years old. 1315 IP overall.

 

The thing I'm more concerned about is the miles he put on his arms before he reached the majors.  

[mtangelsfan]

Great post tdawg.  I have nothing to add since you said it way better than I ever could.

[Halos of Anaheim]

The thing I'm more concerned about is the miles he put on his arms before he reached the majors.  

Your worried about miles on a 25 year old when there are pitchers who are over 30-35 years old still doing well in the MLB.

[Angel Oracle]

And who's to say that Kershaw didn't get used more than normal in HS?

Didn't Tanaka's past two seasons surpass even Darvish at his best in Japan?

Edited December 25, 2013 by Angel Oracle

[Splint7438]

I was watching the videos of Tanaka on YouTube and I like what I saw. I realize they are HIGHLIGHTS but dude moves ball up/down in/out and changes speeds really well. Everybody talks about him being a 3 or 4. He looks to me to be a 2+. These were pressure pitches and he was successful. I think he is going be really good in the right situation.

[eligrba]

I guess the Yankees are the only team thinking about Tanaka

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

 

The only other clubs expected to make a "strong play" for Tanaka are the Cubs, Diamondbacks and Dodgers.

 

Friggen' Dipoto!!!! 

[Inside Pitch]

Mark Prior. 1st full MLB season, deep into the playoffs.....done

Prior is the best example of why people say there is no such thing as a pitching prospect.  He had the perfect body, the perfect delivery ....  Still blew up.

[Inside Pitch]

There are concerns of course, but there will be concerns for any pitcher. Garza? He has serious health risks. Name one pitcher available that would make an immediate impact who doesn't have any risk. And if you name the FA class in 2015, that is irrelevant because most of those guys won't even reach the market and if they do, they will cost a draft pick AND cost as much money as Tanaka. Plus they will all be older and come with risk.

Part of making moves is taking risks. That is just how it goes. There is no such thing as a "safe bet". Tanaka could flop but he could also be a great pitcher. That is a risk the Angels need to take.

 

Gold medal post.    

[Blarg]

My concern with Tanaka is a 25 year old that can barely hit 90 mph in his 2 seam and 4 seam fastball and may not age well in the next couple years. His delivery is pretty basic and there is no hiding of the ball so what he does is what every other pitcher in the majors does when you remove guys like Weaver that uses deception to mask his fastball speed.

 

He is not coming over as Yu Darvish or even a Kuroda with a fastball averaging 93 mph (pitch f/x data not Fox Sports radar guns). So there is little room for a velocity decline. He also has a tendency to try and strikeout players high in the zone. That is just not going to fly in MLB, or rather that will fly, right out of the park.

 

Yes, I have concerns because he sets up as a #3 not a 2 or 1. His decline phase may be sharper because of the arm usage concerns and making some comparison to the 1% pitchers like Kershaw is just making up comps that can't be used for rational argument.

 

If the Angels make a bid it has to be one that factors in everything, not just the hype and some highlight videos of strikeouts in the WBC. I am sure the Yankees and other teams are using the same caution because it is their money. Not ours, theirs and no club wants a Matsusaka.

[Blarg]

Prior is the best example of why people say there is no such thing as a pitching prospect.  He had the perfect body, the perfect delivery ....  Still blew up.

It used to be you could say the season started when Wood and Prior went on the DL. So much talent and yet never realized.

[Ohtaniland]

At 6-foot-2, 205 pounds, Tanaka throws a low-90s fastball that can touch 96 mph. Even though Tanaka can reach the mid-90s, his fastball is the pitch that gives some scouts pause because it comes in on a flat plane, making it more hittable than the velocity might suggest. Tanaka has two secondary pitches that have earned grades of 60 or better on the 20-80 scouting scale, including a 70 splitter with late downward action to keep hitters off his fastball. His low- to mid-80s slider is another plus weapon, while he’ll mix in a curveball as well.

 

 

August 21, 2013

 by Ben Badler

[AngelsLakersFan]

There are concerns of course, but there will be concerns for any pitcher. Garza? He has serious health risks. Name one pitcher available that would make an immediate impact who doesn't have any risk. And if you name the FA class in 2015, that is irrelevant because most of those guys won't even reach the market and if they do, they will cost a draft pick AND cost as much money as Tanaka. Plus they will all be older and come with risk.

Part of making moves is taking risks. That is just how it goes. There is no such thing as a "safe bet". Tanaka could flop but he could also be a great pitcher. That is a risk the Angels need to take.

 

Exactly. What it comes down to is what the Angels can afford. If they can afford to sign Tanaka then they absolutely should.

[edgur1995]

I wanna weigh the options. I'm a guy who likes to have all my options open.

1. The first option is of course to try to land Tanaka. I believe that we need a 2 to 3 guy who layer can be our ace ass who can uphold the torch when Weaver begins to regress. I thought CJ could have been and still has the potential but at times he slumps and I don't want that from my ace. So if we can get a young arm who can be that like Tanaka, that would be awesome. His stuff is great, not a Yu Darvish but has the up side to be great. The problem here is the money. There has to be a ton of teams in the sweep stakes, I'm sure we would be outbidded. Tanaka has to want to come here or we would have to do something so drastic ( I don't know what though).

2. We can get Garza and to be honest he would be too expensive too. I rather go full force to Tanaka then settle for Garza.

3. This an option I would consider. How about we trap a veteran ( Paul Malhom, Bronson Arroyo, Chris Capuano, Jason Hammel ). The money wouldn't be so much. I see as we have 3 good prospect at the moment ( Richards, Skaggs, Santiago ) all can be awesome. We honestly don't know how well Skaggs will do but lets say he tears it up at ST. Do you want to keep him in the minors or put him in the rotation? See with that note a veteran would be better than a guy we paid 20 mill. And now we have wiggle room to extend Trout and sign some pen guys ( Yoon, Balfour ).

We can different ways and I just hope Jerry does what is good for the team and not just get anyone.

[ettin]

There's a reason nobody has made a serious offer to Garza yet.  It's because everybody who might be in on him would much rather have Tanaka, and Garza is clearly the back-up plan.  He's the barfly chick that is always there, and she'll only get action after all the 10s, 9s, 8s, and 7s have left the bar.

 

Is that Los Angeles, CA scale or Portland, OR scale?

[Angel Oracle]

Exactly, ANY FA signing to big money is a risk.

A 25 year-old is sure going to be a lot more attractive to sign to big money, than a 30 year-old.

He may only average 90.6 on the 4 seamer, but the splitter starting off like the 4 seamer will potentially minimize the 4 seamer's self-damage.

The ONLY issue is the 4 seamer coming in a little too high in the zone.

Edited December 25, 2013 by Angel Oracle

[Tavon Brown]

If you don't want Tanaka you really don't want to win.  I guess we should just roll up Brinks trucks full of money and dump them all on Trout's doorstep because we all know he and "he alone" will guarantee this team the next 12 World Series titles just like he got us the last two years.   Oh yeah we didn't even make the playoffs even with "superkid" in the lineup

[Angelsjunky]

My concern with Tanaka is a 25 year old that can barely hit 90 mph in his 2 seam and 4 seam fastball and may not age well in the next couple years. His delivery is pretty basic and there is no hiding of the ball so what he does is what every other pitcher in the majors does when you remove guys like Weaver that uses deception to mask his fastball speed.

 

He is not coming over as Yu Darvish or even a Kuroda with a fastball averaging 93 mph (pitch f/x data not Fox Sports radar guns). So there is little room for a velocity decline. He also has a tendency to try and strikeout players high in the zone. That is just not going to fly in MLB, or rather that will fly, right out of the park.

 

Yes, I have concerns because he sets up as a #3 not a 2 or 1. His decline phase may be sharper because of the arm usage concerns and making some comparison to the 1% pitchers like Kershaw is just making up comps that can't be used for rational argument.

 

If the Angels make a bid it has to be one that factors in everything, not just the hype and some highlight videos of strikeouts in the WBC. I am sure the Yankees and other teams are using the same caution because it is their money. Not ours, theirs and no club wants a Matsusaka.

 

Aside from Hamiltown's correction about Tanaka's velocity, this is a very good post and one I agree with. I think Tanaka's range is that of a #2-3, with a possible decline to #4 if MLB figures him out quickly. This isn't Darvish with #1-2 potential (and fulfillment), as far as I can tell.

 

That said, the even a six-year contract probably won't see too much decline - that's age 25-30. I'd still go for it for $20MM per, but not $25MM per.

[Angels]

"This isn't Darvish with #1-2 potential (and fulfillment), as far as I can tell."

 

Iwakuma was one of the 15 or so best pitchers in baseball last year - a legit #1 on most teams. Did anyone think Iwakuma would pitch like a #1? How about Kuroda? Who thought Kuroda would do this well? Especially at his age?

 

All these labels (#1, #2, #3, etc.) are silly. The truth is, nobody knows how Tanaka is going to do in the majors.

Edited December 25, 2013 by Angels