Is Mike Trout....

[Hollyw00d]

Already in his prime?   Interesting read:

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hitters-no-longer-peak-only-decline/

 

[Angelsjunky]

Yeah, I saw that. I think in Trout's case its probably true. I mean, he might hit .340 one year or 35 HR in another, but I don't think he'll get much better than he is now. Maybe a little, but not much.

 

My guess is that Trout gets a touch better and peaks around age 24-25, then steps down to mortal - but still great - levels for another 5+ years before going into decline in his 30s.

 

But who knows. Truly great players tend to defy norms. Trout will almost certainly lose defense and speed as he ages, but he might make up for it by improving as a hitter.

[xboom28x]

Torii Hunter didn't lose much speed and defense well into his 30s.

[gotbeer]

IMO, I think it's more of a length of excellence than anything.  Outside of Bonds, if you look at any true great player, they have a timeframe of about 6-10 years in their prime.  Then you will see their stats gradually decline.  But this decline doesn't mean they aren't still above average players.  Their decline years could still be greater than an average players numbers.  

 

For the angels, you need to control those 4-8 years, and let someone else grossly overpay for his declining years.  

[Hollyw00d]

this article makes the argument that we already do control his best years

 

 

obviously you can't apply the curve and data to each player individually but....how much better can trout get?  Can it really be expected that trout will be producing 12 WAR when he is 27?

Edited December 15, 2013 by Hollyw00d

[Hollyw00d]

Yeah, I saw that. I think in Trout's case its probably true. I mean, he might hit .340 one year or 35 HR in another, but I don't think he'll get much better than he is now. Maybe a little, but not much.

 

My guess is that Trout gets a touch better and peaks around age 24-25, then steps down to mortal - but still great - levels for another 5+ years before going into decline in his 30s.

 

But who knows. Truly great players tend to defy norms. Trout will almost certainly lose defense and speed as he ages, but he might make up for it by improving as a hitter.

 

 

Yes there is another article referenced that says that while players lose their athletic ability and speed as they age, some make up for it by becoming more polished hitters or adjusting their game in other ways to stay valuable into their 30s.

 

 

I'm really interested to see how this cano contract turns out

[YouthofToday]

The question is not whether Trout is in his prime... The question is how Trout can redefine what "being in one's prime" actually means.

[Halos of Anaheim]

I don't know, I could see Trout being a 12 WAR player JUST from his offense. I mean he had what..9 oWAR this year? I think he can be a consistent 1.000 OPS player soon enough. Look at how much he improved offensively this year. I would think it's ignorant to assume Trout doesn't improve from his age 21 season imo.

[Brent Maguire]

I think Trout will have a few 12 WAR seasons. Given the development of his plate discipline last year, I think it's fair to say he can reach the 1.000 OPS level and if you assume his defense bounces back to between his 2012 and 2013 seasons, his dWAR will go up. 

 

But what if this isn't Trout's best? I'd say it's not likely and this is the best we've seen but I didn't think he would duplicate his 2012 season going into 2013 and he ended up improving in a ton of areas. There's a chance we're seeing one of the top 5 players ever play for us. 

[Docwaukee]

There are a total of ten seasons in the history of baseball where a position player achieved 12 WAR or better.  A big portion of Trout's value comes from speed and defense.  As he evolves as a hitter, my guess is that his speed and defense will decline a bit to even things out.  He might end up with one 12 WAR season.  Maybe two, but I would'nt be surprised to see him with a bunch of seasons between 6-10 WAR for the next 8-10 years.  When you get to the level he has the last couple of years, doing even more is just so difficult to achieve.   

[Brent Maguire]

Doc, maybe a few 12 WAR seasons was a bit dramatic.

I think 1 or 2 seasons is possible and if it were to happen, it would probably be next year or the following.

Say he's between the above average center fielder he was last year and the monster he was defensively in 2012. If you get the same offensive production, he's probably going to be close to 12 WAR.

I think the realistic case is he stays around 10 WAR the next 3-4 years, then is a 7-8 WAR player until age 28 or 29.

[Hollyw00d]

Trout will gradually improve until he's 29, then gradually decline until he's a league average DH at age 43.

 

I'd like all 20+ years to be in an angel uniform.

 

I hope so too.  Players of the caliber that trout has shown himself to be so far, tend to have that kind of career path.   Willie Mays, Ted Williams, Hank Aaron, Lou Gehrig, etc...  they all were very productive well into their 30s.   Having extreme talent and ability seems to allow those guys to defy the effects of time for a bit, or at least delay their rapid decline at the end of their careers.

 

 

With that said, I think it's very likely that if, theoretically, arte throws a fleet of brinks trucks at him in 2017, we will see diminishing returns on the kind of financial investment he will command.   Chances are he will be a very productive player from his age 28-35 seasons, BUT he will also be getting paid like he is still a 10 WAR player during that time as well.

 

Stuff to think about

[Make Angels Great Again]

Trout had a 10.0 OWAR in 2013. He had a 2.1 dWAR in 2012 when he was the full time CF and not shifting from left and center. Dipoto has said that could have affected his offense and defense.

 

When Trout was in center last year, he hit .349/.452/.626 over 111 games

 

Imagine seeing something around that for a full year. Probably would come out to a 13+ WAR. I refuse to acknowledge we've seen Mike Trout's peak.

[Angel Oracle]

He has the short but strong batting swing and plate discipline that should be preserved until his mid-30s.

I would go with something like 8 years/$200 million after 2014.

That still makes him only age 31 to start the new contract after that.

The big question with Trout is:

Could he become the first career 500/500 guy (HRs/SBs)?

We won't know the right answer for quite a while though. He is already almost 1/8 there for HRs and just over 1/6 there for SBs.

Edited December 15, 2013 by Angel Oracle

[Brandon]

Having seen these exact conversations and comparisons to a young player named Ken Griffey Jr., I think I'll simply wait and see what becomes of Trout.

Speculating isn't an accurate indicator.

[Mudville]

On the one hand you want to say Trout is a once in a generation player, that he has put together statisticly the the best firts two seasons of any player and then say he has peaked at age 22.

Willie Mays strung together four of his best seasons from age 31-34.

[Splint7438]

I don't think he has peaked at all. His numbers are so good that he can't possibly top them all every year. I think he will do what only the very best players have done. I think during his career he will lead the league in each of the triple crown categories tho not all I the same year. Obviously miggy has done that and I think Hamilton has come close in each category. I think those are the only active players that have.

[YouthofToday]

Who cares about the triple crown? I'm serious. I truly could care less.

[Lhalo]

Who cares about the triple crown? I'm serious. I truly could care less.

I'm in the same boat. The triple crown is an outdated relic.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

I don't care either. So what if a another player has two more home runs or five more RBI. It's an interesting talking point when it happens, but in the end it means nothing to the team.

[Second Base]

Trout is the greatest ball player I've ever seen, and not just because of his age. I mean that. Griffey, A-Rod, Bonds, Guerrero, Pujols, Ichiro and Jeter are all legends. Trout is either a better or more complete player than them all.

Nothing he can do will surprise me at this point. If he never imp proves and just stays at this level for the next decade he'll be one of the best ever. If he does it for 15+ he'll go down as the greatest of all time, including Ruth, Mantle, Mays and Williams. He might even get better, which is exciting. When I'm talking about Trout, I throw everything I think I know about baseball out the window and embrace the giddiness and ultra homerism his God blessed ability creates.

[Bruce Nye]

Even if he's not going to get any better, so what?  So he'll only be amongst the greatest ever when all is said and done, not the absolute best by far.

 

Seriously, if he isn't at his peak, what the hell could that be?

 

But, it would not be hard to believe with Trout, not just because he is so good now.  I think part of improvement into the mid-twenties lies in the body growth from lean to thicker and stronger.  Mike was built like a NFL linebacker at 19.  How is going to get any stronger?

 

 

Well said. He arguably was the MVP in his rookies and 2nd year.  Just how much better can you become?  Maybe he will pitch every 5th day.

[sneaky_flute]

He's a phenomenal player, but the only thing I could imagine him improving is his arm in the outfield. 

[Stradling]

Who cares about the triple crown? I'm serious. I truly could care less.

Show me a lousy player that has won the triple crown? I get that it doesn't go by all the recent advanced metrics but it's still an accomplishment. Show me a player that hits for that much power and has that high of a batting average and I'll show you a very valuable player. How is the triple crown any different than all the combination of stats they accumulated to show how great Trout was? Trout is the best player in the game, period. But just because Cabrera won the MVP (when Trout should have) because he won the triple crown doesn't diminish the accomplishment.

[maximus p]

   Chances are he will be a very productive player from his age 28-35 seasons, BUT he will also be getting paid like he is still a 10 WAR player during that time as well.

 

Stuff to think about

The dollar value of WAR will likely continue to rise, making it likely he will still be earning the 30-40 million per year