Let’s get the #1 draft pick!

[Chuck]

Can we get a daily running draft pick order as this clusterfuck of a season winds down?

[Angels in 2030]

10 hours ago, Blarg said:

Actually Schanuel has a 0.02 oWAR in just 16 professional games, Fourts, Skips, whatever you want to go by today.  

Thanks for adding in a different stat.  
I said WAR - which was -.01 and now is worse.  But by any metric except walks/obp, he’s going to have to do better to stay LT.  Much better power wise to be an elite or top level 1B.  He’s young and has time.  Probably would have been better served staying in minors to develop a bit more.  But the Angels are in a weird place with everything.  

[Lazorko Saves]

5 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Can we get a daily running draft pick order as this clusterfuck of a season winds down?

We're in the 8 spot today, which weirdly means 9th is the highest probability pick we get post-lottery.

https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/pick_odds

[Lazorko Saves]

And for your nightmare fuel, consider the possibility of one of our tougher AL West rivals missing the playoffs then getting the first overall pick.  0.2% chance as of right now.

[jsnpritchett]

Posted in the Gameday Thread, but I'll do it here, too: the Angels have dropped to the 11th slot, one game ahead of Cleveland for the 12th slot.  The Angels can't even tank correctly.

[REDneck]

5 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

Posted in the Gameday Thread, but I'll do it here, too: the Angels have dropped to the 11th slot, one game ahead of Cleveland for the 12th slot.  The Angels can't even tank correctly.

Happens the same way every single year for the last 8-10 years..

20 games left?

15-5

I'm not rooting for losses,but the pattern is fucking ridicous!

[arch stanton]

It's cool if fans are hoping they tank but I'm glad the players aren't on board with it

[Chuck]

I want them to play the role of the spoiler. 

They crushed the Guardians hopes and dreams, now on to the Mariners. 

 

 

[SoCalDucksFan]

10 hours ago, arch stanton said:

It's cool if fans are hoping they tank but I'm glad the players aren't on board with it

The players are never on board with it.  Neither are the managers.  If only because they're playing for their own future contracts.  Plus they don't necessarily care whether the Angels are going to get a better pick, especially if they won't be playing here a year or two down the road.

[Stradling]

Schanuel has now been on base 35 times in 18 games.  I can’t imagine how that can be a negative WAR.  Regardless of a lack of power, when you get on base at a premium level, then you are adding value.  

[jsnpritchett]

55 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Schanuel has now been on base 35 times in 18 games.  I can’t imagine how that can be a negative WAR.  Regardless of a lack of power, when you get on base at a premium level, then you are adding value.  

He plays first base and not particularly well so far.  After the positional adjustment for 1B, it takes him into slightly negative WAR territory.

I love his OBP and contact skills, but the underlying metrics are still a little scary and aren't getting better as he gets more ABs.  His avg exit velocity is very low, as is his max exit velocity.  He's still got a high (though not insanely so) BABIP, his hard hit % is way below league average, he's hitting a ton of ground balls, etc.

He's got a very solid foundation of skills to build from and obviously his story isn't fully written after 86 plate appearances--but it does look like there are some things he'll need to work on to become a more well-rounded offensive threat.

[Blarg]

The guy is so green and yet is still getting on base. I doubt he develops much power but if he can add a little double action it makes his value much higher. 

[Sho Way That Was A Strike]

On 9/10/2023 at 9:32 PM, REDneck said:

Happens the same way every single year for the last 8-10 years..

20 games left?

15-5

I'm not rooting for losses,but the pattern is fucking ridicous!

You’re not kidding. Then we get a bunch of people that think it’ll translate into a great next season. It’s like okay Matt Thaiss might have hit .300 with 3 homers and a dozen RBI in his last 20 games* but he’s still Matt Thaiss. 
 

Narrator: Matt Thaiss did not do this. Ever. 

[budice0]

Sorta been the rut the Angels are in last 8 or so years.

1) Never bad enough to get a top pick.

2) Never good enough to be a top WS Contender.

[jsnpritchett]

Angels are currently in the 9th position for next year's draft.  They're three games "behind" the 5th position.  It would be virtually impossible for them to move into the 4th position.

https://www.mlb.com/standings/mlb

 

[Angels in 2030]

On 9/12/2023 at 7:00 PM, jsnpritchett said:

He plays first base and not particularly well so far.  After the positional adjustment for 1B, it takes him into slightly negative WAR territory.

I love his OBP and contact skills, but the underlying metrics are still a little scary and aren't getting better as he gets more ABs.  His avg exit velocity is very low, as is his max exit velocity.  He's still got a high (though not insanely so) BABIP, his hard hit % is way below league average, he's hitting a ton of ground balls, etc.

He's got a very solid foundation of skills to build from and obviously his story isn't fully written after 86 plate appearances--but it does look like there are some things he'll need to work on to become a more well-rounded offensive threat.

I thought when he was drafted, all the talk was that he was an OBP & power guy.  But it seems it's all OBP and no power whatsoever.  Maybe the power comments were misguided (or it was my lack of reading comprehension).  at his age, it's not like it's a body development thing that will come as he grows into his body and such.  It's just weird that it's completely nonexistent.  Hopefully it's a small sample size issue.  It sure seems he would have been better off being in the minors longer in order to fully develop and grow his game -- rather than thrown right into the fire.  It's a great opportunity sure, but kind of unfair to the guy imo. 

At least Neto got some run in the minors and proved over a longer period valid results that showed he was ready.  Plus, at SS, he's not expected to bring more than good defensive and some spark.  

[jsnpritchett]

6 minutes ago, Angels in 2030 said:

I thought when he was drafted, all the talk was that he was an OBP & power guy.  But it seems it's all OBP and no power whatsoever.  Maybe the power comments were misguided (or it was my lack of reading comprehension).  at his age, it's not like it's a body development thing that will come as he grows into his body and such.  It's just weird that it's completely nonexistent.  Hopefully it's a small sample size issue.  It sure seems he would have been better off being in the minors longer in order to fully develop and grow his game -- rather than thrown right into the fire.  It's a great opportunity sure, but kind of unfair to the guy imo. 

At least Neto got some run in the minors and proved over a longer period valid results that showed he was ready.  Plus, at SS, he's not expected to bring more than good defensive and some spark.  

Could also just be a combination of things like transition to wooden bats full-time (if you look at his summer league numbers, he only hit 4 HR in 252 AB using wooden bats), higher quality of pitchers, etc.  Hopefully he gets stronger and develops more lift over the winter.  I know that exit velocity isn't everything and I probably carp on it too much, but his average exit velocity (84.3 mph) is closer to David Fletcher (82.7 mph career avg) than it is even to someone like a Chad Wallach (86.8 career avg).

[Stradling]

12 minutes ago, Angels in 2030 said:

I thought when he was drafted, all the talk was that he was an OBP & power guy.  But it seems it's all OBP and no power whatsoever.  Maybe the power comments were misguided (or it was my lack of reading comprehension).  at his age, it's not like it's a body development thing that will come as he grows into his body and such.  It's just weird that it's completely nonexistent.  Hopefully it's a small sample size issue.  It sure seems he would have been better off being in the minors longer in order to fully develop and grow his game -- rather than thrown right into the fire.  It's a great opportunity sure, but kind of unfair to the guy imo. 

At least Neto got some run in the minors and proved over a longer period valid results that showed he was ready.  Plus, at SS, he's not expected to bring more than good defensive and some spark.  

You are misremembering.  There was talk about his lack of OPS in the cape cod league prior to being drafted.

[greginpsca]

35 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Angels are currently in the 9th position for next year's draft.  They're three games "behind" the 5th position.  It would be virtually impossible for them to move into the 4th position.

https://www.mlb.com/standings/mlb

 

they just need to get into the lottery and pray for a lucky draw.

[totdprods]

In a weird way, I almost don't want them to have the #1 pick. I want them to have a Top #5 pick, sure. It's been an easy drafting strategy for them the last few years with their near #10ish pick. Draft the quickest-to-bigs talent, and at that point it was fairly easy for them to pick someone off their board. 

If they're at #1 though, do they pick the best talent even if it's a HS? Do they go still go with the safest available talent even if the upside isn't as high? Do they go for a higher upside, but someone who may not make it to the bigs as quick? Do you take a pitcher? A hitter? Which position? Someone under-slot so they can try to round the farm out elsewhere? Those aren't necessary bad questions to have to answer, and a lot will depend on what happens between now and next July, but I personally am pleased with their recent drafting strategy and they don't need to have the #1 pick to continue implementing that. Having the #1 pick almost handcuffs you a bit, in a roundabout way.

#1 pick doesn't really guarantee that much more than most other #1 picks. It's changed a little, sure, but they don't need to get that pick.

Edited September 14, 2023 by totdprods

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

Angels are currently in the 9th position for next year's draft.  They're three games "behind" the 5th position.  It would be virtually impossible for them to move into the 4th position.

https://www.mlb.com/standings/mlb

 

Yes, but it would be so like the Angels to drop to the 15th pick. 

[jsnpritchett]

1 minute ago, Blarg said:

Yes, but it would be so like the Angels to drop to the 15th pick. 

That would likely mean they'd end up over .500 and doing that is very much NOT an Angels thing...

[BTH]

Schanuel’s lack of power is something the Angels should’ve known about.

Now that we have public data on Schanuel, we know he has among the worst avg EV and bat speed among all MLB players.

Did the team not have this data or measure it before drafting him and paying him $5 million?

If they just went off his metal bat data, they are even more incompetent than we think.

[jsnpritchett]

15 minutes ago, BTH said:

Schanuel’s lack of power is something the Angels should’ve known about.

Now that we have public data on Schanuel, we know he has the worst avg EV and bat speed among all MLB players.

Did the team not have this data or measure it before drafting him and paying him $5 million?

If they just went off his metal bat data, they are even more incompetent than we think.

Baseball Savant has him 487th among all players with at least 50 plate appearances for avg exit velocity. Not quite the worst, but pretty darn awful.  

(Side note: I'm sure there's an easy explanation for it, but not sure why B-Ref and Savant have different exit velocity numbers. I guess B-Ref uses something other than StatCast?)

[cgoldangel]

I think the talk of Schanuel’s lack of power is just a little premature. The guy is literally just learning hit as a professional barely two months after being drafted. I would definitely give him the benefit of the doubt after showing he did hit for power in college. The bats in college do have some limits to their exit velocity, so they are not completely different from wood bats when barreled up. I think with the fact he has come up and not completely stuck it up means he has some serious bat ball skills, which will translate into more power. Plus, the guy is only 21 years old, and still is a few years from physically maturing. Get him some professional training and professional hitting instruction, should do wonders for him.