Let’s get the #1 draft pick!

[tdawg87]

1 hour ago, ettin said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/draft-rule-changes-with-new-cba

With our luck, as @jsnpritchett noted above, we'll fall to 12th, lol. I will still be rooting for the lightning strike of the Halos pulling in the #1 pick, however.

I don't even care about the #1. I'd be happy with a top 8 pick. When's the last time we had one that high? Not to mention the draft position and possible two second round pics if Ohtani leaves.

[jsnpritchett]

3 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I don't even care about the #1. I'd be happy with a top 8 pick. When's the last time we had one that high? Not to mention the draft position and possible two second round pics if Ohtani leaves.

The compensation if Ohtani leaves (assuming they give him a qualifying offer and he rejects, which is a safe assumption) would be a pick after Competitive Balance Round B--so just before the 3rd round.  Likely something in the high 60s/low 70s.

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

The compensation if Ohtani leaves (assuming they give him a qualifying offer and he rejects, which is a safe assumption) would be a pick after Competitive Balance Round B--so just before the 3rd round.  Likely something in the high 60s/low 70s.

Thanks for the clarification. I am definitely dumb to the draft stuff.

I'll call that a 2.5 round pick. 

[jsnpritchett]

1 minute ago, tdawg87 said:

Thanks for the clarification. I am definitely dumb to the draft stuff.

I'll call that a 2.5 round pick. 

Trust me, I'm not an expert, either!  I honestly have to double-check every time I post something about the new version of the draft since there are so many loopholes and qualifiers.  I get stuff wrong, too.  No worries!

Edited September 25, 2023 by jsnpritchett

[Angel Oracle]

11 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

Trust me, I'm not an expert, either!  I honestly have to double-check every time I post something about the new version of the draft since there are so many loopholes and qualifiers.  I get stuff wrong, too.  No worries!

It is weird, like the Nationals not being able to draft higher than 10th in 2024, due to winning the 2023 draft lottery.

[greginpsca]

42 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

It is weird, like the Nationals not being able to draft higher than 10th in 2024, due to winning the 2023 draft lottery.

I thought the Pirates won the 1st pick a year ago.

[jsnpritchett]

41 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

I thought the Pirates won the 1st pick a year ago.

They did, but the Nationals got the second pick, which is part of the "lottery". Large market/high revenue teams now cannot be in the lottery in consecutive years, so the Nats get dropped. 

Yes, it's needlessly complicated!

[greginpsca]

3 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

They did, but the Nationals got the second pick, which is part of the "lottery". Large market/high revenue teams now cannot be in the lottery in consecutive years, so the Nats get dropped. 

Yes, it's needlessly complicated!

And i don't see Washington as a large market team, that is if payroll is what defines the difference.

[jsnpritchett]

17 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

And i don't see Washington as a large market team, that is if payroll is what defines the difference.

It gets a little complicated there, too. This link is to the guidelines about compensation picks for losing qualifying offer free agents, but I think the parts I'm excerpting apply to the draft lottery, too:

So that should give you a broad sense of how large/small markets are defined: it's a combo of market size and team revenue. The only time payroll factors on is if the team exceeds the luxury tax. Otherwise, it's only market size and revenue that's factored in. 

[Angel Oracle]

If Cardinals say split their 6 games and the Halos lose 5 out of 6, the drive for five is a success.

[Angelsjunky]

So it seems like the Angels have a legit shot of #5-8. It is the 6 worst teams that are in the #1 pick lottery, correct? That means they'll finish as the 7th worst. 

[Angels 1961]

7 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

If Cardinals say split their 6 games and the Halos lose 5 out of 6, the drive for five is a success.

I wish Loup was still here.

[Angels 1961]

Not many teams with high payroll still have chance at number 1 pick

[jsnpritchett]

5 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

So it seems like the Angels have a legit shot of #5-8. It is the 6 worst teams that are in the #1 pick lottery, correct? That means they'll finish as the 7th worst. 

No.  Every team that doesn't make the playoffs and wasn't part of the lottery the previous year has a shot at the #1 pick (the better your record, the worse your shot at the #1 pick).  Then the lottery itself determines only the order of the first 6 picks.  After that, it's reverse order of record (with certain exceptions like the Nationals can't be better than 10th this year, etc.).  After the first round, draft order reverts to reverse order of record.

Like I said earlier, it's needlessly complicated and I've probably gotten some portion of this wrong.

[Angelsjunky]

17 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

No.  Every team that doesn't make the playoffs and wasn't part of the lottery the previous year has a shot at the #1 pick (the better your record, the worse your shot at the #1 pick).  Then the lottery itself determines only the order of the first 6 picks.  After that, it's reverse order of record (with certain exceptions like the Nationals can't be better than 10th this year, etc.).  After the first round, draft order reverts to reverse order of record.

Like I said earlier, it's needlessly complicated and I've probably gotten some portion of this wrong.

Well, that means the Angels have a decent chance of the #1 pick or, at the least, should get a pretty good pick - best in years.

[jsnpritchett]

2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Well, that means the Angels have a decent chance of the #1 pick or, at the least, should get a pretty good pick - best in years.

This site gives the odds of getting the first pick for each pre-draft position.  The three worst teams all have the same chance (16.5%), then it decreases from there for the remaining teams that don't make the playoffs.  Right now, the Angels would have a 7.5% chance at the #1 pick.  It jumps to 10% if they move ahead of the Cardinals (they "move ahead" even if they tie, since the Angels had a worse record in '22, which is the tie-breaker) and drops to 5.5% if they fall below the Mets.

https://tankathon.com/mlb

 

[jsnpritchett]

12 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Well, that means the Angels have a decent chance of the #1 pick or, at the least, should get a pretty good pick - best in years.

Also, clicked on "Sim Lottery" just to see what it looked like and, I kid you not, this came up the first time the simulation ran.  #1 pick guaranteed!  Ha

[Angelsjunky]

Thanks, Jason. It would be sweet, though not sure how good the next draft will be. I'd be very happy with top 5, but it looks like the Angels will most likely get 6-8...which is still pretty good.

[jsnpritchett]

Just now, Angelsjunky said:

Thanks, Jason. It would be sweet, though not sure how good the next draft will be. I'd be very happy with top 5, but it looks like the Angels will most likely get 6-8...which is still pretty good.

You're welcome!  Yeah, the '24 draft seems to be seen as a below-average one overall, and certainly a big dropoff from this year.  That said, obviously it's better to have a high pick in any given year, so I'll take what we can get at this point.

[Angelsjunky]

1 minute ago, jsnpritchett said:

You're welcome!  Yeah, the '24 draft seems to be seen as a below-average one overall, and certainly a big dropoff from this year.  That said, obviously it's better to have a high pick in any given year, so I'll take what we can get at this point.

I could be wrong on this, but it seems that as a general rule, draft picks are more in tiers of groups of players, with a few guys as #1 caliber, then a half dozen filling out the top ten or so, then a dozen or so guys in the next tier, etc. Meaning, #1 sometimes matters if there's One Guy, but just as often there are several guys of similar value, then #4 or 5 to about #10 are interchangeable, and so on.

 

[jsnpritchett]

Also just realized that the Angels would hold the tiebreaker over the Mets, too, so that makes it unlikely the Angels would fall to the 7th position. 

[Angel Oracle]

Cardinals 68-88

Halos 70-87

Mets 71-85

Tigers 73-83

Guardians 74-83

Pirates 74-82

Edited September 26, 2023 by Angel Oracle

[jsnpritchett]

Angels and Cards both won, so the Angels remain 1.5 games out of the 5th position. Mets got rained out, so they actually closed to within 1 game of 6th (though the Angels hold the tiebreaker over them, so it's really still 2 games).

[greginpsca]

Pirates, Royals,A's, Whire Sox were all in the lottery last year. Why are they still in it?  Tigers too.

[jsnpritchett]

4 hours ago, greginpsca said:

Pirates, Royals,A's, Whire Sox were all in the lottery last year. Why are they still in it?  Tigers too.

Because they're considered small market teams.  The restriction on not being in the lottery in back-to-back lotteries only applies to large market teams.  

Small market teams can't be in the lottery for three drafts in a row, so if some of the teams you mentioned are still terrible next year, they can't better than the 10th pick. 

Also, the White Sox didn't get a selection in the lottery this year. "The lottery" ultimately just refers to the top six picks that are determined by the draw. 

Here's a link to some more info: 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-draft-lottery-unlike-any-other#:~:text=Large-market teams (defined as,the lottery in consecutive years.