Ohtani wants to win, so where should he go?

[Farmbuildingfan]

Which teams are nearly guaranteed to make the playoffs every year for the near and intermediate future?

The top three I would guess are the Dodgers, Houston, and  Atlanta.

Are there any  others almost guaranteed to make it?

[jsnpritchett]

1 minute ago, Farmbuildingfan said:

Which teams are nearly guaranteed to make the playoffs every year for the near and intermediate future?

The top three I would guess are the Dodgers, Houston, and  Atlanta.

Are there any  others almost guaranteed to make it?

Doubt the Braves would really even bother to go after him in a serious way.  They generally prefer to offer their own guys extensions.  They signed Matt Olson to an 8 year, $168M deal when Freeman left, but that's really their only huge free agent signing in recent years--and that was at about one-third or less of what Ohtani's contract will end up being.

[ELEVEN]

Angels.

[rbis]

Dodgers. Southern Cal. Familiarity with an area he purportedly loves. And they will pay him whatever he wants.

[UndertheHalo]

Your mom

[Farmbuildingfan]

I would hope Ohtani has too good a character to choose the Astros.

[Taylor]

Any team not owned by Arte Moreno.

[Second Base]

Ohtani wants to win and he tends to prefer his own path. The Angels offered him greater autonomy over how his career developed, without operating under the comparison of a previous Japanese great. Being on the West Coast didn't hurt as well, and I think Ohtani believed the Angels would win because they spent money and had Mike Trout.

Given that criteria, the Mariners, Giants, Angels, Dodgers and Padres all offer some of what he's looking for if not all. 

Mariners - Ohtani lives in the Seattle area in the off-season and seems to love it up there. Big Japanese presence. The Mariners are young and can spend, but they aren't a winner, so Shohei would need to take a leap of faith there, that they would be. He also would have to draw unfair comparisons to Ichiro for the rest of his career too. Not saying it's a "no" just that there are factors working against them, as anyone. 

Giants - Big Japanese contingent, and in years past they maintained a top five payroll. The Giants have won more World Series than anyone over the past decade and they're continuing to win this year. There aren't any hindering Japanese comps he'd draw. But the Giants really don't have much of a farm or a strong core in place right now, so it's hard to say if they'll continue winning. 

Angels - The only major league team he's ever known. They've failed to win. But they'll spend and they'll try. And he's beloved in Anaheim and he's got some great teammates. But there's a reason he hasn't even discussed an extension. 

Dodgers - They win, there's a strong Japanese presence, they spend, they're on the West Coast and there's enough separation between Ohtani and Nomo in time and type of pitcher that he won't constantly be compared. It really does seem like the perfect situation. The only negative I can really think of is that there were some hard feelings from the Dodgers brass and Kershaw over Ohtani's first go around with them. They didn't feel like he gave them the time if day and that he wasted their time and was not personable at all. I don't know if those feelings linger or not. Probably not. 

Padres - They're a winner, they've had a rough half of baseball though. Still, maybe he a playoff team this year too. Fantastic roster, williing to spend. Japanese contingent in the front office. Great at drafting, signing and developing prospects, so they should be able to maintain consistent levels of performance. Having said that, not a large Japanese contingent in San Diego, and their track record of winning doesn't nearly match the Dodgers. 

--------

Overall, it's undeniable the Dodgers are the best fit. I just have a gut feeling it's going to be the Giants. No particular reason. 

Edited August 6, 2023 by Second Base

[gurn67]

The Orioles are going to be good for awhile, but who would want to live in Baltimore. I just hope he doesn't stay in the AL West. As much as I don't want to see him with the Dodgers, that would be better than with the Astros, Mariners, or Rangers. If he doesn't stay here, I hope he goes to the Giants. That keeps him out of the NL West and hurts the Dodgers. The Padres would have to move one of their big 3 to make a run at him I would suppose. Maybe Arizona will want to make a big splash.

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

Dodgers.  

[Erstad Grit]

Braves

[Lhalo]

I think the Mariners will make a big push for him. 

[AngelsFanForever]

Angels. He will stay. He wants to win and won’t go the way of say LeBron, by choosing a ready made winner. He wants to be the main reason for a team to win it all!

[jsnpritchett]

1 minute ago, AngelsFanForever said:

Angels. He will stay. He wants to win and won’t go the way of say LeBron, by choosing a ready made winner. He wants to be the main reason for a team to win it all!

How's that working out for him, in this his 6th year with the team?

[Angels_Make_Me_Drink]

Dodgers or Mariners. If he wants to be on a perennial contender; he'll sign with the Dodgers. If he wants to give a solid young team a chance to take the next step, Seattle. 

Personally, if he doesn't sign with the Angels', I would love to see him sign with the Dodgers so I can still go see him play whenever the hell I want. I know that won't be a popular opinion but screw it. 

[cysomeawfulpitcher]

Anyone who is good against us so….anyone not the A’s.

[Jeff Fletcher]

56 minutes ago, AngelsFanForever said:

Angels. He will stay. He wants to win and won’t go the way of say LeBron, by choosing a ready made winner. He wants to be the main reason for a team to win it all!

I actually also heard this from someone who knows him. He said thought Ohtani wants to be one carrying a team to success. This was an Angels person, so maybe a biased opinion or wishful thinking but it didn’t sound made up to me. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

3 hours ago, Second Base said:

Ohtani lives in the Seattle area in the off-season and seems to love it up there.

He’s just spent a lot of time there working out at driveline. I wouldn’t say he “lives” there. 

[bloodbrother]

If he wants to stay out west, I think either the Dodgers(obviously) or Giants make the most sense. Would prefer him going to SF because it would suck to see him on the Dodgers, though I wouldn't blame him one bit if he did go there

[jsnpritchett]

7 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I actually also heard this from someone who knows him. He said thought Ohtani wants to be one carrying a team to success. This was an Angels person, so maybe a biased opinion or wishful thinking but it didn’t sound made up to me. 

I honestly would think less of Ohtani if this is his way of thinking.  He's been here 6 years now and they haven't even had a winning season.  Why in the world would he think anything would change if he signs a 10 year or whatever contract here? I'm not trying to be difficult. I'm honestly trying to understand this mindset. 

Edited August 7, 2023 by jsnpritchett

[bloodbrother]

The problem with that mindset too is that it's just so much harder in baseball for 1 player to make that sort of impact on team success. I mean, we've witnessed Trout go through the same issue here prior and there's many other examples of HOF talents in the past who never had a ton of team success. QB position and NBA(much smaller roster and you play both offense/defense) are about it for where you can really see how much an individual can impact a team and winning

[jsnpritchett]

16 minutes ago, bloodbrother said:

The problem with that mindset too is that it's just so much harder in baseball for 1 player to make that sort of impact on team success. I mean, we've witnessed Trout go through the same issue here prior and there's many other examples of HOF talents in the past who never had a ton of team success. QB position and NBA(much smaller roster and you play both offense/defense) are about it for where you can really see how much an individual can impact a team and winning

Exactly.  He's been playing with Trout in his prime for 6 years at this point and it hasn't worked.  Why in the world would he think things are going to get better from this point forward, or think he can somehow be the savior of the franchise moreso than he has been already??  I truly don't get it.

[Angelsjunky]

There are too many unknowns, mainly around Shohei's mind-set. So we're left with filling the holes (gross) with speculation.

But if we're going purely on franchise success and looking both at recent history and the last twenty plus years (21st century), then there are six teams that stand out above the crowd: The Dodgers, Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals, and Braves. Those are the best franchises in baseball, with a sizable gap between them and the next tier.

I personally don't think the Braves would spend the required money, that they're happy with their very successful system. The Cardinals are in a rebuilding phase, and perhaps the Red Sox too. So I don't think those three teams are in the running, with the possible exception of the Sox.

To the remaining four (or five) I'd add two teams to the list: the Angels and Padres. The Angels have the edge of familiarity and perhaps faithfulness on Shohei's part and this hypothetical desire to win with his "home" team. The Padres, despite under-performing this year, have incredible core talent and, well, San Diego.

If we guess that he prefers the West Coast, the Dodgers, Giants, Angels and Padres would have an edge over the Yankees, Astros and Red Sox.

On a purely mercenary level, Shohei should want to be a Dodger - not only is it familiar territory (LA), but they're just a great franchise. I'm not sure that the Padres can spend even more than they have recently and out-bid them, but they must be an attractive option. I'm not sure what the Giants have over the others, so I'd probably put them last of those four teams.

Basically we're hoping that Shohei really wants to win as an Angel, and that he feels some hope that the team can turn things around next year. But I'd probably rank the teams, in terms of probability, as:

1. Dodgers
2. Angels
3. Padres
4. Giants
5. Yankees
6. Astros
7. Red Sox

I suppose of the up-and-coming teams like the Orioles or Rangers or Mariners could make a competitive bid, but it is hard imagining him choosing any of those teams over the six or seven teams listed above.

Edited August 7, 2023 by Angelsjunky

[Erstad Grit]

2 hours ago, Lhalo said:

I think the Mariners will make a big push for him. 

I think 15 -20 teams will make a big push for him. 

[m0nkey]

1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

I honestly would think less of Ohtani if this is his way of thinking.  He's been here 6 years now and they haven't even had a winning season.  Why in the world would he think anything would change if he signs a 10 year or whatever contract here? I'm not trying to be difficult. I'm honestly trying to understand this mindset.