Angels sign Tyler Anderson (3 years, $39 million)

[IheartLA]

If the playoffs started now and we were in I don't think he'd be in the rotation. He's the clear #6 best option at this point.   

[REDneck]

He needs to buy the BP, including the catcher a steak dinner.

He could have easily been the losing pitcher tonight...again!!

[Chuck]

@Inside Pitch is there any hope for Tyler Anderson? He sure looks below average out there. 

His pitches look like dudes in beer softball leagues could hit him. 

[Vlad27Trout27]

He been bad, yet we've won 8 out of the 12 games he's stared. That's baseball for you.

[Taylor]

On 11/15/2022 at 1:56 PM, Taylor said:

What a dumb signing and waste of a draft pick. Skinny Joe Blanton, here we come.

I don't remember posting this but I stand by it.

[Make Angels Great Again]

On 11/11/2022 at 3:15 AM, Docwaukee said:

If there's one pitcher that I don't want any part of, it's Tyler Anderson

Let me count the ways

1. Qual offer
2. He's entering his age 33 season
3. He's probably going to require a contract in the 3/60 range 
4. He had a career year at age 32.  His WHIP was 20% lower than in any other season he's pitched.  His HR rate was almost half of his career avg prior to this year.  His BABIP was .256 and his career avg. is .287.  
5. His avg fastball velo is around 90 and he doesn't miss bats.  
6.  If there were a team that had a chance to optimize him, he was already on it.  

There's more but that's enough.  It is so much more likely that he's at best a mediocre innings eater for his next deal than being anything even remotely close to what he was this year I can't even believe it.  Let someone else take the chance that he's reinvented himself and will somehow buck all trends pointing to a huge regression.  Even if he has, he's still in line for a pretty significant regression.  And there is a very real chance of him not even getting through his age 33-35yo season as part of a major league rotation.   

He is basically the Zach Cozart of pitchers in my opinion.  

 

@Docwaukee for GM?

[Blarg]

I'm not understanding why you guys thought a $13 million dollar a year free agent starter would be better than this. The last time the Angels paid out about $13 million a year on a four year contract was for Bartolo Colon. That was 2004-2007 and he spent half of that on the DL and the other half at the Golden Corral. 

Yes, Anderson should be better than his pitching results are now. I think he will be over the entire contract and earn his very minimal starter salary. But he isn't going to be a 3 era pitcher, I think he will settle in at about 4.50 which is currently around league average. 

[Taylor]

2 minutes ago, Blarg said:

I'm not understanding why you guys thought a $13 million dollar a year free agent starter would be better than this. The last time the Angels paid out about $13 million a year on a four year contract was for Bartolo Colon. That was 2004-2007 and he spent half of that on the DL and the other half at the Golden Corral. 

Yes, Anderson should be better than his pitching results are now. I think he will be over the entire contract and earn his very minimal starter salary. But he isn't going to be a 3 era pitcher, I think he will settle in at about 4.50 which is currently around league average. 

Get off your high horse and go read through the first five pages of this thread. Barely anyone was excited about this signing.

[Blarg]

Just now, Taylor said:

Get off your high horse and go read through the first five pages of this thread. Barely anyone was excited about this signing.

So angry. 

It's not about lack of excitement it's about over reaction after the fact, like your post. 

[Taylor]

4 minutes ago, Blarg said:

So angry. 

It's not about lack of excitement it's about over reaction after the fact, like your post. 

Link?

[Inside Pitch]

59 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

@Inside Pitch is there any hope for Tyler Anderson? He sure looks below average out there. 

His pitches look like dudes in beer softball leagues could hit him. 

Bro, Im the worst guy to ask.  I wanted no part of him, like I wanted no part of Harvey and Cody Allen -- so I carry a pretty significant bias when it comes to him.  Beyond that, I've always struggled to understand how some change-up guys succeed.  I didn't watch him pitch much last season, I don't know what he was doing that made his change so good, but I know that minus whatever he was doing with his change and it's effectiveness everything else falls apart.   He's actually getting slightly better results with his cutter and sinker this year than he did last season, and when you look at the usual areas for concern with his four seamer, exit velo, LA, etc -- it's nearly identical but the results are much much worse.

Point blank, the change isn't fooling people, and it's throwing everything else off.  He's been a little unlucky if you compare his actual BA allowed .vs his expected BA (off the change), but even if you go with the "expected" results -- it's still not good.

I'll say this much, I wasn't expecting him to implode, I figured he'd be good for a 4.20-4.50 ERA and believed he'd have value as just that if he managed to give them innings.  He's not someone I'd want as a FA, but there is value in guys like that.  Hopefully he can revert to that.

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

He been bad, yet we've won 8 out of the 12 games he's stared. That's baseball for you.

Thats all that matters

[Docwaukee]

4 hours ago, Blarg said:

I'm not understanding why you guys thought a $13 million dollar a year free agent starter would be better than this. The last time the Angels paid out about $13 million a year on a four year contract was for Bartolo Colon. That was 2004-2007 and he spent half of that on the DL and the other half at the Golden Corral. 

Yes, Anderson should be better than his pitching results are now. I think he will be over the entire contract and earn his very minimal starter salary. But he isn't going to be a 3 era pitcher, I think he will settle in at about 4.50 which is currently around league average. 

better than an era of almost 6 and FIP of 5 with a whip of 1.6?  Yeah, he might end up league average, but he'll have to pitch a hell of a lot better for it to even out.  Who the F cares about Bartolo?  How is that even relevant?  

I didn't have great expectations for him but for 13m I expect more than being the 12th worst starter in baseball who's been allowed to pitch 60 innings or more so far.  

[Taylor]

35 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

better than an era of almost 6 and FIP of 5 with a whip of 1.6?  Yeah, he might end up league average, but he'll have to pitch a hell of a lot better for it to even out.  Who the F cares about Bartolo?  How is that even relevant?  

I didn't have great expectations for him but for 13m I expect more than being the 12th worst starter in baseball who's been allowed to pitch 60 innings or more so far.  

Blarg had gone a full hour without posting something self-important so he had to indulge.

[Blarg]

2 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

Who the F cares about Bartolo?  How is that even relevant?  

Because $13 million a year bought you Colon nearly 20 years ago so to think inflation wouldn't say you're not getting but a back of the rotation guy today would be silliness. 

[Docwaukee]

23 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Because $13 million a year bought you Colon nearly 20 years ago so to think inflation wouldn't say you're not getting but a back of the rotation guy today would be silliness. 

you did get a back of the rotation starter who pitching like a guy who deserves to be DFA'd.  

[totdprods]

Welp.

Even with regression I don’t think many were thinking he’d be sitting on an ERA around 5.50 at this point. 

Edited September 17, 2023 by totdprods

[m0nkey]

On 11/15/2022 at 1:59 PM, Stradling said:

It’s entirely possible he puts up a couple of seasons under 4 ERA which means he earned his $13 million on the open market. 

I’m not big on analytics but I think he did not “earn” his $13 million in 2023. 

[m0nkey]

On 11/15/2022 at 2:01 PM, Second Base said:

I should clarify, I don't think Anderson will be a pumpkin immediately. I just think optimistic fans expecting a 2.57 ERA are going to be disappointed when he posts a 3.80 ERA. 

Turns out 3.80 is unrealistic, not optimistic 

[totdprods]

I thought there was a real chance he was gonna regress to like a 4.50 ERA and we would be salty about that. Yikes.

[mmc]

Still worth 1.2 fWAR (before today)

[jsnpritchett]

Just now, mmc said:

Still worth 1.2 fWAR (before today)

...which just goes to show that WAR can be a garbage stat sometimes when it comes to evaluating real-world impact.  He has been a complete shitshow this year.

[Stradling]

52 minutes ago, m0nkey said:

I’m not big on analytics but I think he did not “earn” his $13 million in 2023. 

I agree. Except unlike most players on the team he was healthy and took the ball every time out. That provides value, not $13 million but value. As it is we are starting guys like Barria, Rosenberg, Moderos got a start, yesterday was a bullpen game. 

[Taylor]

5 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I agree. Except unlike most players on the team he was healthy and took the ball every time out. That provides value, not $13 million but value. As it is we are starting guys like Barria, Rosenberg, Moderos got a start, yesterday was a bullpen game. 

The Angels' shittiest pitchers never get injured. With the way he's pitched, he would have been more valuable on the IL.

[m0nkey]

6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I agree. Except unlike most players on the team he was healthy and took the ball every time out. That provides value, not $13 million but value. As it is we are starting guys like Barria, Rosenberg, Moderos got a start, yesterday was a bullpen game. 

I hear what you're saying but how valuable is 141 innings of 5.43 ERA ball?  Jamie Barria has an ERA of 4.94 when he's starting