POLL: In your opinion is Anthony Rendon officially a bust?

[Erstad Grit]

Pretty simple yes or no poll. Is Anthony Rendon a bust, or is it too early to tell?

More discussion here: 

 

[arch stanton]

He’s an all star caliber player who could easily still be a key cog in a championship team. Maybe he’s overpaid but the opera ain’t over yet 

[Angelsjunky]

I'm teetering. He was really good in 2020, but mediocre since, and has only played in 103 of 225 games in 2021-22. So if he's not yet a bust, he's on the verge.

In terms of WAR value, he's accrued 3.7 WAR so far as an Angel and been paid about $52M. That's about $14M/Win - which is significantly above the $8-9M/Win expected via free agency.

Or to break it down:

2020: 2.5 WAR, $10M

2021: 0.2 WAR, $28M

2022: 1.0 WAR, ~$14M so far

Meaning, he was well worth the money in 2020, a total waste in 2021, and bad--but not terrible--value in 2022.

Compare that to Upton, Pujols, and Hamilton:

Rendon: 3.7 WAR for $52M = $14M per Win

Upton: 2.8 WAR for $96M = $34.3M per Win

Pujols: 5.3 WAR for $232M = $43.8M per Win

Hamilton: 2.4 WAR for $107.5M = $44.8M per Win

So he's still far from being the monumental busts that those three guys were. 

But we also should think in terms of not just $/WIn, but the total wasted over the value received. For instance, while Hamilton produced a slightly worse $/Win than Pujols, if we say that every Win is "worth" $8M or so, then he earned about $19M, with about $88M wasted. Pujols, on the the other hand, earned about $42M and wasted about $190M. Upton is more like $22M earned, $74M wasted.

For Rendon, he's earned about $30M so far, and thus wasted about $22M, so at least the first number is still higher than the latter.

Consider that Rendon is almost exactly one-third of the way through his 7-year contract. He's still owed about $174M, so if he continues at his current pace of 1 Win per $14M, he'll have accrued about 16 WAR for $230M, earning about $128M, with $102M excess/wasted. Meaning, still not close to Pujols levels - but a bit worse than Hamilton and Upton.

But I still think he's capable of much more. The weird thing about him is that every time i see him bat, he seems to hit the ball hard. And certainly, he seems to have been rather unlucky the last two years with a .267 and .252 BABIP, compared to a career BABIP of .309.  

The question is his health. If he can stay healthy and get in a groove, he's still capable of a 4-5 WAR season, I think. If not, than we'll probably see seasons ranging anywhere from 0-4 WAR from here on out, which is still better than Pujols his last five years.

[failos]

His injuries will be the end of him. As a result, he’ll never find a rhythm.

[WicketMaiden]

2020

Played 52 of 60 games / 153 wRC+ / .915 OPS / 2.5 fWAR

2021

Played 58 of 162 games / 95 wRC+ / .711 OPS / 0.2 fWAR

2022

Has played 45/63 games / 106 wRC+ / .707 OPS / 1.0 fWAR / Injured again

I'd say he was doing a reasonable impression of a bust so far, but luckily (?) we have another four and a half years to find out if he can turn it around, so it's still just a little early to say for sure. I do think the odds are against a turnaround though, but I will still be rooting for him to completely prove me wrong.

[Angels 1961]

yes

[Stradling]

5 hours ago, arch stanton said:

He’s an all star caliber player who could easily still be a key cog in a championship team. Maybe he’s overpaid but the opera ain’t over yet 

This is how I feel.
If he continues to be injured then it’s a bad contract. 

[Docwaukee]

He's not quite there yet but on the expressway in that direction.  Before the wrist injury, he was clearly starting to pick things up on offense and was playing really good defense.  And if he would have stayed healthy was probably rolling toward a 3-4 WAR season or perhaps even better if there were a decent second half hot streak in there.  

and now I suspect that the wrist thing is going to nag all season and take away offense even if he's in there.  

this year was supposed to make us forget about last year.  not remind us of it.  

[Taylor]

If Bustville is four laps Rendon has run about 2.9 of them.

[failos]

[Angelsjunky]

Not to be a word-nerd, but I don't think we can call it "official" until he's reached the point where there's no reasonable way he can come close to earning his contract. Even if he doesn't provide much more the rest of the year, finishing <2 WAR, he's still got four years. 

He's going to make about $230M of his $245M contract (he lost $15M during 2020, due to Covid). If we accept the idea that breaking even on a contract is roughly $8M per WAR, then 230/8 = 28.75. 

We can be kind and adjust down to 25 WAR. I'd say that's the bust point. Or like so:

>30 WAR - Exceeded reasonable expectations

25-30 WAR - about what we should reasonably expect for that kind of money

20-25 WAR - meh, but not bad

10-19 WAR - a bonafide bust

>10 WAR - a Pujolsian bust

[REDneck]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I'm teetering. He was really good in 2020, but mediocre since, and has only played in 103 of 225 games in 2021-22. So if he's not yet a bust, he's on the verge.

In terms of WAR value, he's accrued 3.7 WAR so far as an Angel and been paid about $52M. That's about $14M/Win - which is significantly above the $8-9M/Win expected via free agency.

Or to break it down:

2020: 2.5 WAR, $10M

2021: 0.2 WAR, $28M

2022: 1.0 WAR, ~$14M so far

Meaning, he was well worth the money in 2020, a total waste in 2021, and bad--but not terrible--value in 2022.

Compare that to Upton, Pujols, and Hamilton:

Rendon: 3.7 WAR for $52M = $14M per Win

Upton: 2.8 WAR for $96M = $34.3M per Win

Pujols: 5.3 WAR for $232M = $43.8M per Win

Hamilton: 2.4 WAR for $107.5M = $44.8M per Win

So he's still far from being the monumental busts that those three guys were. 

But we also should think in terms of not just $/WIn, but the total wasted over the value received. For instance, while Hamilton produced a slightly worse $/Win than Pujols, if we say that every Win is "worth" $8M or so, then he earned about $19M, with about $88M wasted. Pujols, on the the other hand, earned about $42M and wasted about $190M. Upton is more like $22M earned, $74M wasted.

For Rendon, he's earned about $30M so far, and thus wasted about $22M, so at least the first number is still higher than the latter.

Consider that Rendon is almost exactly one-third of the way through his 7-year contract. He's still owed about $174M, so if he continues at his current pace of 1 Win per $14M, he'll have accrued about 16 WAR for $230M, earning about $128M, with $102M excess/wasted. Meaning, still not close to Pujols levels - but a bit worse than Hamilton and Upton.

But I still think he's capable of much more. The weird thing about him is that every time i see him bat, he seems to hit the ball hard. And certainly, he seems to have been rather unlucky the last two years with a .267 and .252 BABIP, compared to a career BABIP of .309.  

The question is his health. If he can stay healthy and get in a groove, he's still capable of a 4-5 WAR season, I think. If not, than we'll probably see seasons ranging anywhere from 0-4 WAR from here on out, which is still better than Pujols his last five years.

This is the longest maybe ever written.

[Taylor]

13 minutes ago, failos said:

[Don]

I mean there's a chance he won't be a bust still, but it doesn't look great. Dude is 32 and beginning to show a trend of regular injuries. It's honestly hard to assess if he's "actually" declining in terms of skill because he's never really healthy enough to give us a clear picture of where he's at over a long period of time. But I think it's safe to say that 32 year old players rarely get better. So an absolute best case scenario is that Rendon suddenly gets healthy for the rest of this year and stays that way for the next few years, all while putting up numbers similar to what he did 3-5 years ago. 

But we all know how this usually goes. Guys that suddenly start getting hurt a lot, or start carrying around nagging injuries as they enter their 30s don't usually find consistent health again and play at a high level for several more years. Dude is trending downward on that front, and while it's possible that will all improve it's not very likely it will.

[Docwaukee]

7 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Not to be a word-nerd, but I don't think we can call it "official" until he's reached the point where there's no reasonable way he can come close to earning his contract. Even if he doesn't provide much more the rest of the year, finishing <2 WAR, he's still got four years. 

He's going to make about $230M of his $245M contract (he lost $15M during 2020, due to Covid). If we accept the idea that breaking even on a contract is roughly $8M per WAR, then 230/8 = 28.75. 

We can be kind and adjust down to 25 WAR. I'd say that's the bust point. Or like so:

>30 WAR - Exceeded reasonable expectations

25-30 WAR - about what we should reasonably expect for that kind of money

20-25 WAR - meh, but not bad

10-19 WAR - a bonafide bust

>10 WAR - a Pujolsian bust

I'd probably allow for a little inflation in there and call it about 10m per WAR.  

Also, he doesn't get a pass for being injured, but he's accumulated 3.7 fWAR in 669 PA over the last three years.  Last year and 2020 kinda offset imo.  So he's about a 3.5 WAR player when he's on the field.  The only reason I bring this up is that at least his performance is good when he's out there and gives us a little hope if he can just stay healthy.  

If he accumulates a total of about 20 WAR over the life of the contract that means he'll have to produce at about a 3.5 WAR clip for the next four and a half years.  If he does that, he'll have been overpaid but that still would make him a very good player and substantial contributor for the next almost half decade through his age 36 season.  I'll take that.  

[HanfordGuy]

 

[Chuck]

Way too early to tell. Just a few days ago we tweeted this stemming from AJ's post here, so let's not forget. We just need him to stay on the field.

 

[HanfordGuy]

53 minutes ago, Taylor said:

[HanfordGuy]

Just now, HanfordGuy said:

[Angelsjunky]

47 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

I'd probably allow for a little inflation in there and call it about 10m per WAR.  

Also, he doesn't get a pass for being injured, but he's accumulated 3.7 fWAR in 669 PA over the last three years.  Last year and 2020 kinda offset imo.  So he's about a 3.5 WAR player when he's on the field.  The only reason I bring this up is that at least his performance is good when he's out there and gives us a little hope if he can just stay healthy.  

If he accumulates a total of about 20 WAR over the life of the contract that means he'll have to produce at about a 3.5 WAR clip for the next four and a half years.  If he does that, he'll have been overpaid but that still would make him a very good player and substantial contributor for the next almost half decade through his age 36 season.  I'll take that.  

Yeah, that's why I call 20-25 "meh, but not bad." I can live with that, but it isn't quite what they paid for.

I think the tricky thing about Rendon--and really, the biggest concern--is that we haven't seen a non-injured version of him since 2020, at least not for a significant period of time. I actually think his basic skill-set is still there, so he'd be more than a 3.5 WAR player if he stayed on the field. So while I hear what you're saying about 3.5 WAR, I really see him as a 5 WAR guy who hasn't been healthy. That 3.5 WAR pace he's on for this year is without consistent play - and thus without any real periods in which he's gotten on a roll. Meaning, it isn't an accurate sampling of what he'd put together over a full year. 

We can nitpick 8 vs 10M per win, but I like looking at the lower end because smart teams with deep farms offset that by having plenty of younger, cheaper players. Even $8M is kind of high, in that if you're playing a guy $32M, you want him to be more than just a borderline star (~4 WAR). 

[2_Ring_Circus]

Yup, until he proves otherwise. The greatest ability is availability. 

[T.G.]

Better to be a bust than an ass? Or vice versa?

[UndertheHalo]

Being able to play is a big part of being “good” it’s a baseline thing.  Also, while he’s better then the other options.  He hasn’t been that good on the field either.  I’m not going to say he’s a bust because there’s enough time to fix it this year but if we’re still talking about this at the end of this season and they’re not playing meaningful games in September then what ? We’re half way through the contract and haven’t got shit other then like 25 games in the shortened season.  It’s getting really close to being as bad as any of the other disasters. 

[failos]

2 hours ago, Taylor said:

Lol was going to post that one, but it’s truly a monstrosity. Also wanted to post the Venus de Milo sculpture, since it has no arms (but it’s not a bust).

[Duren, Duren]

A 'bust' in terms of fulfilling expectations and value per contract. But really, expectations and contract were based on his career peak season, topped off with the series win. Which enhanced his image. His leverage was enormous at the perfect time for his free agency. 

The big disappointment really is his  constant absence. As such his play when in the lineup has been good in the field, average at the plate. Certainly not performing as expected. If this pattern continues for the length of his contract then the signing will have to be judged a mistake. But it is possible that he may break out of this loop and produce better value.