Ohtani is a good hitter but prob not elite

[IheartLA]

So like most on this board I’ve been underwhelmed by Ohtani’s offense so far and keep waiting for him to go on a tear. But after looking closer at his numbers the 1st half of 2021 might have been an outlier and what we are seeing is closer to his true ability at the plate.

2018-2020: 124 wrc

2021 1st half: 177 

2021 2nd half: 121

He’s at 122 wrc for 2022 so far which falls almost perfectly with his career if you take out the ridiculous 1st half last year. His slash lines apart from OBP when pitchers pitched around him when he was the only real bat in the lineup are also close to the 2nd half last year.

Cliffs: Ohtani’s 2nd half last year might not have been him being tired but more of a true representation of his hitting than the 1st half. Thus his hitting right now might not be a slow start and he’s actually a 125ish wrc DH which is good but not the Ruthian level that we want/hope from him.

[IheartLA]

Continuing looking at the macro level of the team, I think everyone in the lineup was performing close to expected value so far with Ward being the outlier. This includes Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, Walsh, etc. Hitting wise i actually DON’T think the coaching staff should expect more improvement from this group from what we’ve seen the 1st third of the season.

Starting pitching almost everyone overperformed in the beginning and are regressing and settling into more of an average rotation which means in this area I also DON’T think Maddon and Perry can expect huge improvement going forward. Especially the back 4 starters who have poor K rates and are surely going to be 4-4.5 ERA types the rest of the way. 
 

This brings us to the bullpen which is the only reasonable area where the coaching staff should be looking at and trying to fix. We have really good arms that are not performing and the hope to lead us to the postseason should be a big leap in this area of the team.

Maddon said in his interview a few days ago the bullpen was the one area we need to fix and I agree. It’s the only place where we’ve actually been underperforming and where we should realistically put our hope in turning our season around.

cliffs: despite perception our hitting and starting pitching is actually not underperforming only our bullpen. If we don’t want to be a .500 team then we need to look for improvement in that area.

[Jason]

Something tells me that a few clubs are going to be willing to pay Ohtani an elite level contract. I’m hoping the Angels aren’t one of them. I’d like to see some more consistency from him on the mound.

[Halo in Chicago]

I don't think he's a .300 hitter and he still strikes out too much, but I do think he'll consistently be a .250 - .275 hitter w good power numbers. Not bad at all.

[Taylor]

He doesn't need to be an elite hitter to be a superstar, since he's shown he can be an elite pitcher.

[eligrba]

He is an excellent hitter and would be welcomed in any lineup.

[Reveille1984]

Even if he is just good and not "elite" at either side of the equation, that still makes him a superstar player as long as he can stay healthy.  Asking for more consistency on the mound is kind of funny since his peripherals are even better than last year (higher K/9, lower BB/9, lower HardHit%, lower xERA/xFIP).  He's on pace for 6-7 WAR even with his lesser offensive stats.

A SP with his arsenal that can hit in the middle of the lineup with 30+ HR power is a one of one in the MLB, and his marketing value alone probably makes him worth whatever he would get.  He puts butts in seats, and is an extremely likeable personality. 

[Angel Oracle]

3 hours ago, Taylor said:

He doesn't need to be an elite hitter to be a superstar, since he's shown he can be an elite pitcher.

Just needs more consistency to be a true elite pitcher, still a few too many clunkers.   We’ll know more in that area by next season, his third full season back from TJS.   Hoping that by then, he can pitch at least 162 innings.

Edited June 6, 2022 by Angel Oracle

[fan_since79]

4 hours ago, Jason said:

Something tells me that a few clubs are going to be willing to pay Ohtani an elite level contract. I’m hoping the Angels aren’t one of them. I’d like to see some more consistency from him on the mound.

Paying him $400 million would be one of the worst mistakes we could make. That's the number floating around currently. 

[happybat4]

7 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

Paying him $400 million would be one of the worst mistakes we could make. That's the number floating around currently. 

How much would a hitter of his caliber make? How much would a pitcher of his caliber make? Combine it and add the fact he only takes one roster spot.

[UndertheHalo]

You guys are nuts.  How pray tell are the angels going to replace the production they get out of Ohtani.  <rolls eyes> 

Edited June 6, 2022 by UndertheHalo

[UndertheHalo]

Like it takes two meh starts for fs79 to be ready to bail on this guy lmao.  You know the MVP freak of nature that hasn’t come around in I don’t know 80 years.  Obviously the Angels have shown the ability to spend whatever money they don’t spend on Ohtani on players that will be better.  Obviously.  

Edited June 6, 2022 by UndertheHalo

[UndertheHalo]

And he’s a well above average hitter.  Even while not delivering what you want.  It’s June 6th. 

[Taylor]

People vascillate in Ohtani like no other player. He has a bad pitching week, it's "He should just be a hitter." He has a bad hitting stretch, it's "He should just focus on pitching."

[Duren, Duren]

6 hours ago, IheartLA said:

So like most on this board I’ve been underwhelmed by Ohtani’s offense so far and keep waiting for him to go on a tear. But after looking closer at his numbers the 1st half of 2021 might have been an outlier and what we are seeing is closer to his true ability at the plate.

2018-2020: 124 wrc

2021 1st half: 177 

2021 2nd half: 121

He’s at 122 wrc for 2022 so far which falls almost perfectly with his career if you take out the ridiculous 1st half last year. His slash lines apart from OBP when pitchers pitched around him when he was the only real bat in the lineup are also close to the 2nd half last year.

Cliffs: Ohtani’s 2nd half last year might not have been him being tired but more of a true representation of his hitting than the 1st half. Thus his hitting right now might not be a slow start and he’s actually a 125ish wrc DH which is good but not the Ruthian level that we want/hope from him.

I totally agree. The all star game last year seems to have been the exact time when Ohtani's hitting trajectory began to go in the wrong direction. 

That first half was one of those things when everything goes right, but can't be sustained. And it didn't even last the full season. Take it away and he is pretty much the same hitter now as he was before that half season. A power hitter with amazing strength but chronic flaws in his mechanics. 

Expectations should be lowered to some degree. Also not as successful stealing bases.

And pitching. That is a major concern. 

As a power hitter he still can be useful, even  with a somewhat reduced output. But if he struggles on the mound? That messes everything up with the rotation and team expectations.

Right now he's a lucrative marketing attraction around baseball, and especially for the Angels. But if he drastically slumps then the mystique will diminish. 

Is trading him at some point an option? Especially considering contract negotiations in the near future.

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, happybat4 said:

How much would a hitter of his caliber make? How much would a pitcher of his caliber make? Combine it and add the fact he only takes one roster spot.

I would guess they start by offering per season what Trout makes, and go from there.

Number of years is tricky, because who knows how long the pitching will be there for.

This is his age 28 season.  Age 30 season would be 2024.

Edited June 6, 2022 by Angel Oracle

[T.G.]

Ohtani is simply awesome.  No other label needs to be applied.

[Taylor]

4 minutes ago, True Grich said:

Ohtani is simply awesome.  No other label needs to be applied.

Handsome?

[BillyMartin9]

Ohtani is not a "good" hitter, especially with the way the teams play him on the shift. Is it beneath him to try to bunt to a WIDE open left side?  He has decent speed, he can bunt every time teams put the shift on him. But Maddon doesn't call it. Ohtani is like the old school Rob Deer, all or nothing. He won't hit for average with the shift, and he strikes out a lot. He'll be a 240-260 hitter with dingers. Not elite.

[stormngt]

11 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

You guys are nuts.  How pray tell are the angels going to replace the production they get out of Ohtani.  <rolls eyes> 

I think a fair question is how much longer can Ohtani hit and pitch before injuries derail him.  And how much is his future production is worth.  

He will get an historic long term deal.  How many think he will perform to the value of the contract.

[UndertheHalo]

6 minutes ago, stormngt said:

I think a fair question is how much longer can Ohtani hit and pitch before injuries derail him.  And how much is his future production is worth.  

He will get an historic long term deal.  How many think he will perform to the value of the contract.

I think my question is fair also.  How are the angels going to replace him ? Take a look at how we’re doing minus Rendon. 

[stormngt]

9 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

I think my question is fair also.  How are the angels going to replace him ? Take a look at how we’re doing minus Rendon. 

It's not about replacing Ohtani.

It's about whether Ohtani would help the team at a value of 40 million a year.

I  not doubting he us a very good hitter.  I am not doubting he is a very good pitcher.  Combine he is a great player.

However, will his arm hold up?  He has already had 2 Tommy John surgeries. 

His hitting alone isn't worth 40 million for 7 years.  Is his hitting even worth 20?

[Angelsjunky]

 

Two things can be true at once:

• Ohtani hasn't performed as an elite hitter since the first half of last year (177 wRC+), and now has hit with a .235/.355/.452 line (121 wRC+) over his last 502 PA going back to the ASB of 2021. And
• He's still very good: A 121 wRC+ hitter is worth keeping in the lineup; add in his pitching, and he's a bonafide star. 

But I don't think it is unreasonable to ask: WHich is the "true" Ohtani? Is it the guy who hit with a 177 wRC+ for the first 84 games of last year, or the guy who has hit with a 121 since? Or somewhere in-between?

I think we're left with three possible conclusions:

1. 2021 was a career year for him, and he's probably more of a 5-6 WAR guy than a 9 WAR guy; meaning, still a bonafide star, just not the best player in the game. Or
2. He's been underperforming with the bat for the last 500 PA, and will eventually return to last year's form. Or
3. He's somewhere in-between. Maybe more of 130-140 wRC+ hitter, and 7ish WAR guy.

I tend to think #3 is the most likely option. I don't think this question has an either/or answer: Is Ohtani a 177 wRC+ hitter or a 121 wRC+ hitter? I think the answer is "both," and over the course of his prime years it will probably even out to about 140 - which is close to elite, and still a star-caliber offensive performer, if not among the very best in the game.

In some sense, I'm more concerned about his pitching. He's got the stuff to be elite, and seems prone to a bad start every third game (or the last two). In his first 7 starts this year he gave up a total of 3 HR in 38.1 IP; in his last two starts, 5 HR in 9 IP. Hopefully that's just an aberration, and part of the collective team malaise. 

And there's a sense of untapped potential: Can he ever combine his best hitting and fully blossom as a pitcher, in the same year? Given what we've seen from him in flashes--or even for longish periods--it isn't unreasonable to be disappointed that he hasn't put it all together at once, even if his baseline is still really good. 

I'm not ready to write him off as "merely" a 120 wRC+ guy. That 177 wRC+ wasn't just a short span of time: it was over 84 games played. But it may be that that there's a "book" on Ohtani, and he hasn't (yet) adjusted. Note also that sometimes even elite players have long periods in which they struggle. Look at Jose Ramirez in the 2nd Half of 2018 combined with the 1st Half of 2019: .218/.333/.378, 89 wRC+ in 643 PA. Since then he's hit .284/.369/.597 with a 158 wRC+. Meaning, something was off and he eventually figured it out. 

 

 

Edited June 7, 2022 by Angelsjunky