Who is your preferred SS for 2022?

[totdprods]

27 minutes ago, Trendon said:

So if the Angels have a similar payroll in '22 as they did in '21, is it then fair to say that they have around $50 million in payroll room this offseason?

That's the general belief, yes.

[Hubs]

30 minutes ago, Trendon said:

So if the Angels have a similar payroll in '22 as they did in '21, is it then fair to say that they have around $50 million in payroll room this offseason?

It will be closer to $55M than $50...If they match it exactly.

I've gone over the payroll numbers several times, but no one seems to believe that the Angels have just under $110 in contracts in addition to this $9-12M that @Jeff Fletcher just talked about for Club Control, and only two realistic arbitration cases in Mayers and Stassi. At around $5 M total according to estimates. So that's south of $130-more like $125. Which is $55 less than $180.

I expect them to add salary, even if that's just in deferred salary to an Ace or a star SS....as that's the only realistic fix. I would expect budget starting pitchers in the 2nd or 3rd FA spots, we're not getting two aces. Cobb may come back if he'd take around $8M. Iglesias takes $13? That leaves you like 30-35 to address the rest if the numbers are true. I'd rather have Semien or Story at a $20M first year salary number plus a $25M pitcher first year salary in Stroman/Scherzer/Ray/Verlander. Plus you'd need Cishek and maybe Watson back, plus a backup C for all around $1-1.5 each

But that's would be an increase of around $15M in a year where there may not be a luxury tax. Don't know if they'll go that high, but I hope they would.

 

[BTH]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

It will be closer to $55M than $50...If they match it exactly.

I've gone over the payroll numbers several times, but no one seems to believe that the Angels have just under $110 in contracts in addition to this $9-12M that @Jeff Fletcher just talked about for Club Control, and only two realistic arbitration cases in Mayers and Stassi. At around $5 M total according to estimates. So that's south of $130-more like $125. Which is $55 less than $180.

So let's go with the mid-point of Jeff's $9-12M estimate for pre-arb players: $10.5M.

Players under contract (Trout/Rendon/Upton/Ohtani/Fletcher): $111.2M.

Arb-eligible players (Stassi/Mayers/Gosselin/Guerra): $7.7M

Pre-arb players: $10.5M

You add all that up and you get $129.4M.

 

I see that you assume Gosselin and Guerra will be non-tendered, but you have to count them as part of the total as long as they are still on the roster. Also, you'd have to add ~$1.2M of league min players even if they are let go.

[Hubs]

37 minutes ago, Trendon said:

So let's go with the mid-point of Jeff's $9-12M estimate for pre-arb players: $10.5M.

Players under contract (Trout/Rendon/Upton/Ohtani/Fletcher): $111.2M.

Arb-eligible players (Stassi/Mayers/Gosselin/Guerra): $7.7M

Pre-arb players: $10.5M

You add all that up and you get $129.4M.

 

I see that you assume Gosselin and Guerra will be non-tendered, but you have to count them as part of the total as long as they are still on the roster. Also, you'd have to add ~$1.2M of league min players even if they are let go.

They’ll 100% be non tendered. You gonna pay a reliever with a 6 ERA nearly 2 M when you can pay Herget 590k? What about a lefty bench guy when they’ve got Thaiss who is almost out of options? Also, Jeff’s payroll number is 109.95. I had 8-10M call it $9. That’s why I say they’re at 123-125 before they sign anyone. Leaving a bit over $55-57 to get where they were last season.

I don’t add in extra 0-3 league salaries as then you’d have to take them away whenever they sign a free agent. It’s too easy to double count.

But to compete, they need to spend more than that or get really really creative.

Both infield and outfield defense was terrible so I don’t see how they can go with internal options at short. Rendon should solve that issue at 3rd. Adell and Marsh in the OF regularly should greatly improve the defense there as well as with Trout, of course, in left or Center.

Offensively, a guy who can steal bags would be nice. Fletcher doesn’t steal enough.

 

[BTH]

23 minutes ago, Hubs said:

They’ll 100% be non tendered. You gonna pay a reliever with a 6 ERA nearly 2 M when you can pay Herget 590k? What about a lefty bench guy when they’ve got Thaiss who is almost out of options?

I don't know 100% that they'll be non-tendered. They should be, but the Angels haven't always done everything that they should've done.

Maddon liked Gosselin and Guerra, with the organization going out of their way multiple times to come up with a fake injury for Guerra so they wouldn't have to DFA him.

[BTH]

37 minutes ago, Hubs said:

They’ll 100% be non tendered. You gonna pay a reliever with a 6 ERA nearly 2 M when you can pay Herget 590k? What about a lefty bench guy when they’ve got Thaiss who is almost out of options? Also, Jeff’s payroll number is 109.95. I had 8-10M call it $9. That’s why I say they’re at 123-125 before they sign anyone. Leaving a bit over $55-57 to get where they were last season.

I don’t add in extra 0-3 league salaries as then you’d have to take them away whenever they sign a free agent. It’s too easy to double count.

I understand the way you are calculating it, but we just don't know for sure that the Angels are calculating it similarly and getting the same totals.

I hope the way you calculate it is the way the Angels view it, because having an extra ~$5M can make a difference in the offseason.

[HanfordGuy]

On 10/23/2021 at 5:57 PM, Dochalo said:

I posted a while back that I heard very particularly that the reason the dogs got Turner was to replace Seager because he has zero intention of staying in the LA area.  

 

[Hubs]

My predictions for the FA SS class:

1) Yankees - SEAGER

2) Cubs - BAEZ

3) Blue Jays - CORREA

4) Angels - SEMIEN

5) Rangers -  STORY

6) Red Sox - TAYLOR

 

[Jeff Fletcher]

6 hours ago, Trendon said:

So if the Angels have a similar payroll in '22 as they did in '21, is it then fair to say that they have around $50 million in payroll room this offseason?

That’s a big if, but I think that’s a reasonable guess 

[BTH]

12 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

That’s a big if, but I think that’s a reasonable guess 

So are you saying you think the payroll for '22 will be lower than 'it was in 21?

[tdawg87]

10 hours ago, Hubs said:

Alex Cobb will not make $15M per. Gray will make more. Swap those two and it makes some sense. Taylor will make more.

 

Ok thank you.

[Docwaukee]

On 10/23/2021 at 6:17 PM, tdawg87 said:

Here's my idea for shits and giggles.

Chris Taylor - $10 million first year. 4/60 overall.

Raisel Iglesias - $12 million first year. 3/48 overall.

Alex Cobb - $15 million first year. 3/48 overall.

Jon Gray - $9 million first year. 4/40 overall.

4 million left to play around with for depth and flyers. 

There will also be trades for relievers and probably a catcher.

Not a spectacular offseason. But unless Arte ups the payroll it's probably the best case scenario.

Every year I do this I end up being low by about 30% or more but I'm gonna try to adjust this year.  

I think Taylor is about right.  Probably gets the same deal Ozuna got last year even though he's a year older.  4/64

Iglesias gets the Liam Hendricks deal I think.  3/54.  

Cobb - probably close although I think he'll get 2 years instead of 3.  About 2/30.  He only pitched 93 innings this year and wasn't very good for several years in a row before that.  

Gray - He's gonna get more than people think.  like 4/70.   

Villar or Joey Wendle.  

Trade for a pen piece or two.  @totdprods can probably do a better job of mapping out some solid pen options who could be roster casualties.  

Manny Pina on the cheap.  

Don't trade the core of young pitchers or Adell/Marsh.

Ohtani extension.    

I would be perfectly happy with that off season.  

Would I take Scherzer and a lesser arm (maybe Minaisan can find another Cobb) instead of Cobb and Gray?  You bet.  

[tdawg87]

9 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Every year I do this I end up being low by about 30% or more but I'm gonna try to adjust this year.  

I think Taylor is about right.  Probably gets the same deal Ozuna got last year even though he's a year older.  4/64

Iglesias gets the Liam Hendricks deal I think.  3/54.  

Cobb - probably close although I think he'll get 2 years instead of 3.  About 2/30.  He only pitched 93 innings this year and wasn't very good for several years in a row before that.  

Gray - He's gonna get more than people think.  like 4/70.   

Villar or Joey Wendle.  

Trade for a pen piece or two.  @totdprods can probably do a better job of mapping out some solid pen options who could be roster casualties.  

Manny Pina on the cheap.  

Don't trade the core of young pitchers or Adell/Marsh.

Ohtani extension.    

I would be perfectly happy with that off season.  

Would I take Scherzer and a lesser arm (maybe Minaisan can find another Cobb) instead of Cobb and Gray?  You bet.  

If Gray gets 4/70 I'll spoonfeed myself cottage cheese I rubbed on my taint.

[Jason]

23 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

If Gray gets 4/70 I'll spoonfeed myself cottage cheese I rubbed on my taint.

I wonder which one would taste worse? 

[tdawg87]

Just now, Jason said:

I wonder which one would taste worse? 

It's a toss-up.

[Jeff Fletcher]

21 hours ago, Trendon said:

So are you saying you think the payroll for '22 will be lower than 'it was in 21?

I’m saying I don’t know what the payroll is going to be. Maybe it will be higher. Maybe it will be lower. 
 

If it’s the same, they have about $50M (give or take a few mil).

[Mark68]

Scherzer

Cobb

Raisel

Pina 

Trade for deJong/relief pitching.

Call it an offseason.

Profit.

[HanfordGuy]

 

[HanfordGuy]

On 10/26/2021 at 8:17 AM, tdawg87 said:

If Gray gets 4/70 I'll spoonfeed myself cottage cheese I rubbed on my taint.

Small or large curd? Will canned peaches be involved???

[Lazorko Saves]

Patience, grasshoppers.

Trea Turner is a free agent at the end of 2022.  That's the SS to overpay for.

[Taylor]

MLB.com: 7 Likely Suitors for Marcus Semien

 

The Angels aren't one of the seven. Very sad.

[Lou]

I miss the days when people wanted us to spend money on pitching.

[tdawg87]

24 minutes ago, Taylor said:

MLB.com: 7 Likely Suitors for Marcus Semien

 

The Angels aren't one of the seven. Very sad.

Good.

[Taylor]

11 minutes ago, Lou said:

I miss the days when people wanted us to spend money on pitching.

We want to spend money on everything.

[HanfordGuy]