Who is your preferred SS for 2022?

[ten ocho recon scout]

24 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

 

If I'm the Angels I'm offering Semien a rich ass

Tdawg, this is an alleyoop for you

[ThisismineScios]

Not sure at what point everybody started believing throwing $25mil/year at Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, or Robbie Ray was the solution. It’s not. They badly need pitching. But they need 2-3 pitchers realistically, not 5-6. Don’t overpay guys who had a good year after several bad/empty ones. That’s not a winning formula. Perry knows this; look at Atlanta. They will pursue a guy and trade for a guy. 

Therefore there is nothing preventing them from offering a SS $25 million a year. There is still money for pitching, and they can still trade. If you can get Semien, Story, Seager (LH), or Correa at that number for 5 years, you do it. If not, they will absolutely target a guy in a trade. They are not going into next season with Rengifo as their best option. Not happening. He was handed the chance and did nothing with it.

[Halodays]

Fletcher at SS. Trade for Jorge Polanco

[IheartLA]

I would just resign andrelton Simmons for a 1yr $3M deal hoping to rebuild his value and strike lightning in a bottle.

And spend the rest $$$ on pitching.

Edited October 21, 2021 by IheartLA

[BTH]

5 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

In terms of Defensive Runs Saved, Marcus Semien saved 11 runs at second base. In comparison to the rest of the MLB, this would rank third (with the two ahead of him also playing in the American League.) Semien also registered an Ultimate Zone Rating of 6.3, the highest in the MLB. His Revised Zone Rating, which is a percentage of opportunities for an out converted, was .780%, third highest in the MLB and highest for the American League.

So on top of one of the best hitting seasons for a middle infielder, Semien also provided the Blue Jays with a fantastic defensive season.

Obviously, this would be an ideal "problem" to have of whether to put Fletcher or Semien at SS, but I worry about Fletcher's defense at SS.

A lot of Fletcher's good defense at 2B comes from his range and ability to just get enough on throws to get outs on those balls he has to go to his right on and jump-throw. I don't think he can make those plays at SS, with his range side-to-side being more limited and his arm having less range.

[BTH]

1 hour ago, ThisismineScios said:

Not sure at what point everybody started believing throwing $25mil/year at Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, or Robbie Ray was the solution. It’s not. They badly need pitching. But they need 2-3 pitchers realistically, not 5-6. Don’t overpay guys who had a good year after several bad/empty ones. That’s not a winning formula. Perry knows this; look at Atlanta. They will pursue a guy and trade for a guy. 

Therefore there is nothing preventing them from offering a SS $25 million a year. There is still money for pitching, and they can still trade. If you can get Semien, Story, Seager (LH), or Correa at that number for 5 years, you do it. If not, they will absolutely target a guy in a trade. They are not going into next season with Rengifo as their best option. Not happening. He was handed the chance and did nothing with it.

How are they gonna get 2-3 starters, a $25M a year SS, and bullpen help within the budget?

$50M ain't gonna cover all that.

[BTH]

5 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Correct. So at most he gets 5 years, but I guarantee you that Seager and Correa are going to get a 8-10 year deal. 

If I'm the Angels I'm offering Semien a rich ass 3-4 year deal. If he doesn't take it, move on. 

I think Semien may get more than people think. I could see him getting an AAV of $25-30M on a six-year deal. He has been among the MLB leaders in WAR in '19 and '21, and we know how much front offices value WAR nowadays.

[Docwaukee]

12 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I think Semien may get more than people think. I could see him getting an AAV of $25-30M on a six-year deal. He has been among the MLB leaders in WAR in '19 and '21, and we know how much front offices value WAR nowadays.

we do?  Front offices probably don't even consider it because they have their own algorithm.  WAR is all we have and that's why we use it.  Knowing where it fails and succeeds - like any stat - is important.  

[Docwaukee]

It would be fun to tease out a proprietary algorithm from a team.  Would love to see it.  I bet it includes a component of the teams trying to quantify typically non-stat things like make up and clubhouse presence.  

[Dtwncbad]

Maybe I am a nut, I would be happy if Semien comes here.  Just hope the Angels don’t shoot their wad on him alone.

[ettin]

9 hours ago, Dochalo said:

It would be fun to tease out a proprietary algorithm from a team.  Would love to see it.  I bet it includes a component of the teams trying to quantify typically non-stat things like make up and clubhouse presence.  

Yes I would love to see it, too. Have to imagine it has a weighted, composite scoring system for how they score players, including surplus value, with running trend lines. Inputs probably include Statcast type stats like exit velocity, barreling, etc., in addition to the aforementioned makeup, clubhouse presence, etc. Likely also has variability bands showing the risk level of each player, likely on an individual stat level, which is then rolled up into an overall risk band for the player as a whole.

If it is implemented properly it would be a powerful tool to identify the types of players the weighting system leans toward, helping the team target the right guys or at least the best guys available at any particular point in time.

[Hubs]

15 hours ago, Dochalo said:

so you think both will be in the 250+ mil range?  Maybe

at the end of the day I don't see the Angels investing 100+m on a SS.   I'd actually be ok with it if that meant getting Semian instead of spending on one of the top 3 or 4 pitchers below Scherzer.  I like Semien better than Gausman, Ray and Stroman personally.  

I think they’ll approach 300. So 5/125 is a bargain. Even if it’s back loaded a bit so they can still address SP.

[Hubs]

10 hours ago, Trendon said:

How are they gonna get 2-3 starters, a $25M a year SS, and bullpen help within the budget?

$50M ain't gonna cover all that.

$50 M is a made up number. They spent around 30 on one year and arbitration deals last season and have 30 in Pujols money off the books. They can spend more than $50. 

They’ll ll be around 122-125 after contracts,  arbitration and club control guys. Guerra may be back but they’re not paying Gosselin or Barretto. Mayers and Stassi will be back.

To get to last years number (or a tiny bit above) you can pay Suzuki 2.5, Cishek 1.5, Iglesias 14, Semien 15, Scherzer 30. These would be first year payroll numbers not the AAV. 

 

 

 

 

[jsnpritchett]

17 minutes ago, Hubs said:

$50 M is a made up number. They spent around 30 on one year and arbitration deals last season and have 30 in Pujols money off the books. They can spend more than $50. 

They’ll ll be around 122-125 after contracts,  arbitration and club control guys. Guerra may be back but they’re not paying Gosselin or Barretto. Mayers and Stassi will be back.

To get to last years number (or a tiny bit above) you can pay Suzuki 2.5, Cishek 1.5, Iglesias 14, Semien 15, Scherzer 30. These would be first year payroll numbers not the AAV. 

 

 

 

 

Why would Semien sign a deal that pays him $3M less in the first year of the deal than he got this year?  There is zero reason for him to sign a deal that's that heavily backloaded, unless one of the subsequent years is like $40M+.

I sometimes wonder where people get such crazy ideas about what players will agree to.

[BTH]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

$50 M is a made up number. They spent around 30 on one year and arbitration deals last season and have 30 in Pujols money off the books. They can spend more than $50. 

They’ll ll be around 122-125 after contracts,  arbitration and club control guys. Guerra may be back but they’re not paying Gosselin or Barretto. Mayers and Stassi will be back.

$50M is not a made up number. Their projected 2021 payroll is around $130M and they spent around $180M last season. You can't just subtract however much money they have coming off the books. Other players are getting raises based on the breakdown of their contract.

[ThisismineScios]

12 hours ago, Trendon said:

How are they gonna get 2-3 starters, a $25M a year SS, and bullpen help within the budget?

$50M ain't gonna cover all that.

Yeah my post was all over the place. My point is that only a few guys are worth paying that kind of money for, and I don't think they will pursue more than one. They COULD go after a cheaper option at pitcher ($12-15 million/year), then trade for another. Then re-sign Iglesias, and pursue a SS. 

I'm more just over people thinking it's worthwhile to pay Gausman/Stroman/Ray $25 million a year. I'd rather shore up the staff with 2-3 cheaper options and trades and then get a quality SS. 

In reality, they aren't going to pay for a SS. They will probably trade for one. 

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

Why would Semien sign a deal that pays him $3M less in the first year of the deal than he got this year?  There is zero reason for him to sign a deal that's that heavily backloaded, unless one of the subsequent years is like $40M+.

I sometimes wonder where people get such crazy ideas about what players will agree to.

15/20/25/25/30 plus an 5M signing bonus and a 5M buyout or 30M option.

[BTH]

7 minutes ago, ThisismineScios said:

Yeah my post was all over the place. My point is that only a few guys are worth paying that kind of money for, and I don't think they will pursue more than one. They COULD go after a cheaper option at pitcher ($12-15 million/year), then trade for another. Then re-sign Iglesias, and pursue a SS. 

I'm more just over people thinking it's worthwhile to pay Gausman/Stroman/Ray $25 million a year. I'd rather shore up the staff with 2-3 cheaper options and trades and then get a quality SS. 

In reality, they aren't going to pay for a SS. They will probably trade for one. 

If the Angels are going to adequately address all their needs, they are going to have to mainly rely on trades and shrewd free agent signings. Unless Arte gave Perry an extra $50M to spend, (which is incredibly unlikely) they are gonna have to be smart to address their needs and cannot just hand out rich free agent deals.

[Hubs]

15 minutes ago, Trendon said:

$50M is not a made up number. Their projected 2021 payroll is around $130M and they spent around $180M last season. You can't just subtract however much money they have coming off the books. Other players are getting raises based on the breakdown of their contract.

The projected Payroll at $130 is the number that's wrong. They have $110 committed to 5 players, Trout (35.5), Rendon (35.5), Upton (28), Ohtani (5.5), Fletcher (5). Arbitration is maybe $5M for Stassi and Mayers. That's $115. Club Control is $8. That's $123. 180-123 = 57. And 180 is not a hard number. There will be a new CBA and new Lux Tax Payroll Limits. 

 

[jsnpritchett]

2 minutes ago, Hubs said:

15/20/25/25/30 plus an 5M signing bonus and a 5M buyout or 30M option.

Zero reason he would take a deal like that if someone else offers him a 5-year deal with equal money throughout.  I also think your AAV for a deal for him is too low.

[Hubs]

2 minutes ago, Trendon said:

If the Angels are going to adequately address all their needs, they are going to have to mainly rely on trades and shrewd free agent signings. Unless Arte gave Perry an extra $50M to spend, (which is incredibly unlikely) they are gonna have to be smart to address their needs and cannot just hand out rich free agent deals.

Agreed. However, I don't see a thousand needs on this roster. 

They need a solid defensive shortstop who can hit, cuz Fletcher Struggled. I'd argue it's their number one need. 

They need to resign Iglesias or get another solid closer. No player other than Ohtani was more valuable IMHO.

They need at least two starting pitchers.

 

[jsnpritchett]

3 minutes ago, Hubs said:

The projected Payroll at $130 is the number that's wrong. They have $110 committed to 5 players, Trout (35.5), Rendon (35.5), Upton (28), Ohtani (5.5), Fletcher (5). Arbitration is maybe $5M for Stassi and Mayers. That's $115. Club Control is $8. That's $123. 180-123 = 57. And 180 is not a hard number. There will be a new CBA and new Lux Tax Payroll Limits. 

 

Where are you getting your numbers?  It seems like you're mixing some actual payroll numbers with AAV numbers.

[Hubs]

1 minute ago, jsnpritchett said:

Zero reason he would take a deal like that if someone else offers him a 5-year deal with equal money throughout.  I also think your AAV for a deal for him is too low.

I actually think 5/140 is closer to the right number but someone said 5/125. Story I think makes slightly less, Baez slightly more. Seager and Correa are going to kill it though, I'd guess Cole Money for Seager and Rendon Money for Correa. (Only due to the Yankees and Dodgers not bidding on Correa cuz of rumored bad blood).

And Nearly ALL contracts are backloaded. No one makes the same amount each year. Pujols started at 16 in his first season and ended at 30 in year 10.

 

[Hubs]

Just now, jsnpritchett said:

Where are you getting your numbers?  It seems like you're mixing some actual payroll numbers with AAV numbers.

Jeff Fletcher plus Cots and Spotrac. These are real payroll numbers. Fletcher also said both keep listing a signing bonus for Trout and Rendon that was already paid. 

AAV for these is 35.5 (Trout), 35 (Rendon), 21.2 (Upton), 4.25 (Ohtani), 5.2 (Fletcher). That's 101.15 AAV.

 

[Hubs]

Just now, Hubs said:

Jeff Fletcher plus Cots and Spotrac. These are real payroll numbers. Fletcher also said both keep listing a signing bonus for Trout and Rendon that was already paid. 

AAV for these is 35.5 (Trout), 35 (Rendon), 21.2 (Upton), 4.25 (Ohtani), 5.2 (Fletcher). That's 101.15 AAV.

 

For Real Payroll, I was off on Rendon at 36 (vs. 35.5), and Fletcher at 4 (vs. 5). Some have it listed differently. Still it's 109.95 total for those five contracts.