OC Register: Angels midseason breakdown: Next 13 games are critical

[AngelsWin.com]

FIRST-HALF REVIEW

HOW THEY GOT HERE: The Angels are 45-44, but it really could be worse. Shohei Ohtani has outperformed all expectations, as a pitcher and hitter, and first baseman Jared Walsh has been very good. Mike Trout was his normal MVP-level self before he got hurt. Pitchers like Raisel Iglesias, Patrick Sandoval and Jose Suarez have been good. Otherwise, it’s been a collection of disappointments and injuries. Third baseman Anthony Rendon has been both, going to the injured list three times and hitting below expectations in between. Dylan Bundy was the Opening Day starter and best pitcher in 2020, but he’s been so bad he was moved to the bullpen. Overall, the pitching and defense have been among the worst in the majors. The offense has kept them afloat, but even that has plenty of room for improvement because some of the best hitters have been hurt.

SECOND-HALF PREVIEW

KEY TO SUCCESS: Obviously, the Angels need to pitch better. Sandoval and Suarez were not in the rotation for most of the first half, and if they pitch well and stay in the rotation for all of the second half, that would help. Andrew Heaney and Alex Cobb have also had ups and downs throughout the first half, leaving room for improvement. If the starters get deeper into games more consistently, that could help the bullpen by limiting their workload. The Angels need Mike Mayers, Tony Watson and Steve Cishek to pitch better as bridges from the starters to Iglesias. Improving the pitching is the tougher task, because the offense is going to get better with the healthy return of Trout, Justin Upton and Rendon, who figures to perform closer to his career averages.

TRADE POSSIBILITIES: If the Angels get off to a hot start in the second half, it could encourage General Manager Perry Minasian to make a deal to improve the pitching. The most attractive starter who could be on the market is Colorado Rockies right-hander German Marquez, who remains under control for next year too, though the Rockies have indicated they don’t intend to deal him. If the Angels entertain a trade for a rental player, Kansas City Royals right-hander Danny Duffy or Atlanta Braves lefty Drew Smyly could be potential fits. On the other hand, if the Angels play poorly over the next week and a half, they could trade away several veterans who are free agents at the end of the season, most notably Iglesias. Heaney, Cobb, Watson, Cishek and shortstop José Iglesias could also be dealt.

BIGGEST CONCERN: Ohtani has carried the Angels throughout the first half, as their best pitcher and their best hitter when Trout is out. However, the Angels have pushed Ohtani hard, without the days off that he had the last time he was a two-way player, in 2018. Ohtani has already pitched more innings than in the previous three years combined. If he breaks down, not only would the Angels be in trouble on the field, but their appeal to fans would diminish significantly.

SCHEDULE: The Angels have just 13 games before the July 30 trade deadline. Three of those are against the Oakland A’s, the team they are currently chasing for the second wild card. There are another three against the Seattle Mariners, who are just ahead of them in the standings, but the other seven are against the Minnesota Twins and the Rockies, who are hopelessly out of it. The Angels have done a good job of beating up the teams they should beat, so if they can continue that, and hold their own against the A’s and Mariners, they can make up some ground. Whether it will be enough to convince Minasian to invest in improvements remains to be seen.

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[jsnpritchett]

I still don't understand why people keep suggesting Smyly as a rental option.  Is he really any better than what the Angels have? Why would you trade anyone of even marginal value for him? 

[Angelsjunky]

What is the over/under on those 13 games, in terms of buy/sell?

I'd say winning 9 or more of those games (9-4, or 54-48 at trade deadline) makes them buyers. 5 or fewer wins (5-8, or 50-52) makes them sellers. In-between, maybe a bit of both, or neither.

But yes, these next 13 games are huge.

[jsnpritchett]

8 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

What is the over/under on those 13 games, in terms of buy/sell?

I'd say winning 9 or more of those games (9-4, or 54-48 at trade deadline) makes them buyers. 5 or fewer wins (5-8, or 50-52) makes them sellers. In-between, maybe a bit of both, or neither.

But yes, these next 13 games are huge.

I'd want to see them be extremely competitive against Oakland and Seattle, as they have a lot more games against teams like that after the deadline. 

[Angelsjunky]

8 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

I still don't understand why people keep suggesting Smyly as a rental option.  Is he really any better than what the Angels have? Why would you trade anyone of even marginal value for him? 

Agreed, although I mentioned him once, only because he's a name being thrown around. But I don't see him really improving the Angels in any way. The Angels have 5 starters who are performing at least reasonably well: Ohtani, Sandoval, Cobb, Heaney, and Suarez.  The rest of the starts will come from either Canning, Barria, Bundy, Detmers, or C-Rod. Not sure Smyly is significantly better than any of those guys.

Anyhow, they don't technically need a 6th starter until July 27th. They've got five games, then an off day, then ten games in a row, and thus will need someone on the sixth of that ten-game run. They will probably either recall Canning or give Barria a start, or maybe go with an "opener"/long reliever hybrid. And then they need another guy in mid-August, when we might see Detmers or C-Rod.

So my feeling is, unless they can pry Marquez away from the Rockies, or something similar, they shouldn't bother with a starter. If they've had a good run over the next two weeks, bolster the pen.

As far as the defense is concerned, I'm hoping that we'll be seeing a consistent Upton-Trout-Marsh trio for the last two months or so of the season, which should improve things. They could also jettison Suzuki and give Thaiss a shot - he can't be worse, defensively speaking, and should be better with the bat.

The offense will get a series of injections, as Upton, Rendon, and Trout come back, plus Thaiss and Marsh replacing Suzuki and Ward. The last couple months should be fun to watch, regardless of whether they're still in it.

[stormngt]

13 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Agreed, although I mentioned him once, only because he's a name being thrown around. But I don't see him really improving the Angels in any way. The Angels have 5 starters who are performing at least reasonably well: Ohtani, Sandoval, Cobb, Heaney, and Suarez.  The rest of the starts will come from either Canning, Barria, Bundy, Detmers, or C-Rod. Not sure Smyly is significantly better than any of those guys.

Anyhow, they don't technically need a 6th starter until July 27th. They've got five games, then an off day, then ten games in a row, and thus will need someone on the sixth of that ten-game run. They will probably either recall Canning or give Barria a start, or maybe go with an "opener"/long reliever hybrid. And then they need another guy in mid-August, when we might see Detmers or C-Rod.

So my feeling is, unless they can pry Marquez away from the Rockies, or something similar, they shouldn't bother with a starter. If they've had a good run over the next two weeks, bolster the pen.

As far as the defense is concerned, I'm hoping that we'll be seeing a consistent Upton-Trout-Marsh trio for the last two months or so of the season, which should improve things. They could also jettison Suzuki and give Thaiss a shot - he can't be worse, defensively speaking, and should be better with the bat.

The offense will get a series of injections, as Upton, Rendon, and Trout come back, plus Thaiss and Marsh replacing Suzuki and Ward. The last couple months should be fun to watch, regardless of whether they're still in it.

I am not confident Marsh first taste in the majors is going to be better than Ward.

[Angelsjunky]

Just now, stormngt said:

I am not confident Marsh first taste in the majors is going to be better than Ward.

Defensively it will be. Also, I think he'll hold his own with the bat. Also, Ward had that nice hot streak, but has overall been a below average hitter: .228/.312/.399 with 91 OPS+. I'd bet on Marsh surpassing that, if given 50+ games on the big league club.

[totdprods]

46 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

I still don't understand why people keep suggesting Smyly as a rental option.  Is he really any better than what the Angels have? Why would you trade anyone of even marginal value for him? 

Last 11 starts he has a 3.34 ERA, and that includes one game where he got walloped for 7 ER, otherwise it’s been 3 ER or less every start. He isn’t going very deep and the peripherals aren’t awesome, but it would be like adding maybe another Cobb to the rotation. I’m not against it at this point as I think banking on Suarez, Canning, and Sandoval is a liiiiiittle risky, and he shouldn’t cost much in a trade. Not having to count on Canning for the last rotation spot or having the option of moving Suarez back to long-relief isn’t a bad option. And we’re an injury away from having Bundy or Quintana back in the rotation.

Personally, I’d try and get Will Smith or Luke Jackson back and expand the deal a bit.

Edited July 14, 2021 by totdprods

[Angels Fan Forever]

1 hour ago, stormngt said:

I am not confident Marsh first taste in the majors is going to be better than Ward.

I think Marsh would do better than Taylor Ward's 1 for 19 with 9 K's and 0 BB's.

[Dtwncbad]

Maybe it’s me, but it kind of frustrates me to keep reading about the big decision to buy or sell.

I personally don’t really think this is an actual decision.

The team 100% needs to secure better starting pitching.  This is a trade deadline where transactions happen.  The Angels need to use this trade deadline to pursue improving the starting rotation.

I believe the Angels are committed to finding transactions to acquire pitching that will help the team beyond this year.

Look, if the Angels lose 9 games in a row here, yes they may be more likely to trade away a certain player or two.

But this is SEPARATE from the primary objective that is the same either way:  Attempt to use the trade deadline period to land impact, controllable starting pitching.

If that transaction doesn’t happen, it doesn’t mean that this primary objective was not pursued.  It just means the right deal was not available, and they will have to keep trying (that same objective) in the off-season.

In a nutshell, I disagree that the main objective pivots on wins and losses over the next week to ten days.

Frankly even if the Angels gain five games in five days, I doubt they would be aggressively pursuing rentals.  I know the front office said they did not oppose “rentals” but it would be dumb to “remove” yourself from any opportunities because you don’t know the price of such a rental unless you are engaged in it.  Might as well be open.  You don’t have to make any deal you don’t want to make.

One way or another, I really think they remain focused on landing controllable impact starting pitching regardless of wins and losses coming up.

 

[Jason]

52 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Defensively it will be. Also, I think he'll hold his own with the bat. Also, Ward had that nice hot streak, but has overall been a below average hitter: .228/.312/.399 with 91 OPS+. I'd bet on Marsh surpassing that, if given 50+ games on the big league club.

I think Marsh has more upside than Ward at this point but like @stormngtsaid, it's hard to assume that Marsh will play well enough in his first taste of the majors to improve the club. It's also possible he takes this opportunity, plays very well and earns a permanent spot on the roster. Either way I don't think he plays worse than Ward. 

[Dtwncbad]

12 minutes ago, Jason said:

I think Marsh has more upside than Ward at this point but like @stormngtsaid, it's hard to assume that Marsh will play well enough in his first taste of the majors to improve the club. It's also possible he takes this opportunity, plays very well and earns a permanent spot on the roster. Either way I don't think he plays worse than Ward. 

Every time Ward does a couple of things to indicate that he is better than I thought, he then slides right back to where he was before.  I got a little hopeful for a bit there, very happy to be proven wrong in Ward.  But here we are.  I think he is ultimately below average, very low impact bench player at best.

And I will repeat, I want to be wrong because I want the Angels to have good players.

[JustATroutFan]

Angels really need Trout against the teams with good records, especially against Oakland and Seattle. Trout, as we know, does major damage at Seattle. Who knows, they might have won their last series if Trout wasn't on the IL. I think it was Seattle who walked Trout intentionally with no one on base a few seasons ago, LOL. And he  has a career .301/.395/.572 slash line against the A's. They can beat bad teams without him but they can for sure use him against the competitive/good teams in the second half. 

[Jason]

12 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Every time Ward does a couple of things to indicate that he is better than I thought, he then slides right back to where he was before.  I got a little hopeful for a bit there, very happy to be proven wrong in Ward.  But here we are.  I think he is ultimately below average, very low impact bench player at best.

And I will repeat, I want to be wrong because I want the Angels to have good players.

The team needs decent bench players too so hopefully Ward can be that guy

[Angels Fan Forever]

I said on another thread after we lost the first game of the Boston series and were at .500 that we needed to be 11-6 through the Colorado series ending June 28th to be buyers.

We are 3-2 since then so 8-4 gets us to 53-48 heading into the trade deadline and the huge 4 game series versus Oakland. 

We have 4 games @ Minnesota during this span. Maybe Jose Berrios switches dugouts after game 4.

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Defensively it will be. Also, I think he'll hold his own with the bat. Also, Ward had that nice hot streak, but has overall been a below average hitter: .228/.312/.399 with 91 OPS+. I'd bet on Marsh surpassing that, if given 50+ games on the big league club.

Ward is in a bad 9-56 slide since June 20, going from .800+ OPS down to .711.

.161/.217/.232/.449 with 15/4 Ks/BBs

 

Edited July 14, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[totdprods]

4 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Ward is in a bad 9-56 slide since June 20.

.161/.217/.232/.449 with 15/4 Ks/BBs

Lots of poor mistakes in the field too. Maybe the break will do him good with a little reset.

[Angel Oracle]

The Reds play the NL Central teams (not the Pirates) and the Mets through the trade deadline.

Could they fall enough to be willing to trade the controlled through 2023 Castillo, who has been very good after early struggles?

Or with the starting pitching prospects they already have, do the Halos focus on late innings additions?

Edited July 14, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[Dtwncbad]

39 minutes ago, Jason said:

The team needs decent bench players too so hopefully Ward can be that guy

Yes agree.  I guess I am just saying I am definitely not in the crowd that views this guy as a future starter or someone to specifically hold on to.  I mean, I have read all kinds of comments (even this year) that list Ward among the players should keep and “build around.”  I spit my coffee out when I read stuff like that.

Major leaguer?  Yes.  But likely a negative or zero WAR last guy on the bench that is imminently replaceable.

If the Angels are ever one Taylor Ward away from a championship roster, they can trade some pedestrian, low ceiling 24 year old in AA to get the Taylor Ward they need.

[Second Base]

You really can't design a better schedule to begin the second half. It really is a golden opportunity. 

The two teams in front of the Angels, the A's and M's are in the schedule, and they get the chance to pummel a couple cellar dwellers. 

Like if they come away with 9 wine across the next 13 games, they're probably only going to be 2-3 games out of first and a game or two back in the WC. 

And the inverse is also true. If they fail against Seattle and Oakland, it will have created enough distance between them that selling becomes an easy decision. 

It's a perfectly designed barometer. 

 

[totdprods]

I'd love to know what a package of Adell, Canning, and a SS prospect (Vera, Placencia, Blakely, Jackson, Rengifo) would net.

Castillo? Berrios? Marquez? Alcantara? Hendricks and Kimbrel/Contreras? Kyle Muller, Drew Smyly, and Will Smith?

Pair him up with Ohtani, sign a solid FA arm this winter, re-sign Cobb, and between Sandoval, Suarez, Detmers, Barria, Canning, you should have a pretty good rotation right there.

[stormngt]

3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Defensively it will be. Also, I think he'll hold his own with the bat. Also, Ward had that nice hot streak, but has overall been a below average hitter: .228/.312/.399 with 91 OPS+. I'd bet on Marsh surpassing that, if given 50+ games on the big league club.

There is no doubt in my mind you are right once Marsh settles in against big league pitching.   But I think you are ridiculously wrong in that assessment if he is called up this year.

Wars has been average. He has had a slump recently but slumps happen in baseball, even to greatest in the game.

Edited July 14, 2021 by stormngt

[stormngt]

2 hours ago, Jason said:

I think Marsh has more upside than Ward at this point but like @stormngtsaid, it's hard to assume that Marsh will play well enough in his first taste of the majors to improve the club. It's also possible he takes this opportunity, plays very well and earns a permanent spot on the roster. Either way I don't think he plays worse than Ward. 

Ward is not playing bad.  He is average.  He is in a slump and slumps happen.

He can't be worse the Lagares or Rengifo in the outfield.  However Ward has not been bad overall.

[jsnpritchett]

3 minutes ago, stormngt said:

There is no doubt in my mind you are right once Marsh settles in against big league pitching.   But I think you are ridiculously wrong in that assessment if he is called up this year.

Marsh has been average. He has had a slump recently but slumps happen in baseball, even to greatest in the game.

He's actually been absolutely on fire since coming back from his injury.  I think he was still playing hurt earlier when he went into that long slump.  But in his AZ League and AAA games since coming back several days ago, he's been crushing the ball, getting walks, etc.

[stormngt]

3 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

He's actually been absolutely on fire since coming back from his injury.  I think he was still playing hurt earlier when he went into that long slump.  But in his AZ League and AAA games since coming back several days ago, he's been crushing the ball, getting walks, etc.

That was a major typo.

I meant to say Ward has been average.  I know Marsh has been killing it since he has been up.  However how long has that been?  A week?

Give Marsh more time in AAA and Ward will do fine.