OC Register: Angels midseason breakdown: Next 13 games are critical

[jsnpritchett]

49 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Ward is not playing bad.  He is average.  He is in a slump and slumps happen.

He can't be worse the Lagares or Rengifo in the outfield.  However Ward has not been bad overall.

I guess it's all in how you choose to look at his season.  Rather than seeing him as currently in a slump, to me, it seems like he had a hot streak in the middle of the season to date that is surrounded by mediocre-to-poor play.  From May 20-June 18, he had a 27-game stretch in which he hit .307/.390/.545.  Before May 20, he hit .156/.235/.311.  Since June 18, he's at .167/.254/.250.  Coming into this season, he had a career slash line of .214/.283/.351.  As the season goes along, I'm starting to get concerned that that 27-game stretch is a true outlier, rather than a sign that he's stepping up to become a consistent contributor (or at least an average player).

Edited July 14, 2021 by jsnpritchett

[angelsnationtalk]

Adell will be back up before Marsh so let's get the Marsh idea out of the window..... He's just coming back from a shoulder injury. 

[Angels Fan Forever]

Don't bury the lead, right? We were discussing Ward vs. Marsh. Adell is still working on playing catch in the OF.

So I doubt Marsh would/could do worse than Ward right now.

Ward is:

1 for his last 19 (.053) with 9 K's and 0 BB's

9 for his last 56 (.160) with 15 K's and 4 BB's

Ward is not good at MLB.

Ward has been a below average player (OPS+ of 80 and BR WAR of -1.0) throughout and is getting worse as the season progresses.

Very few playoff teams have ever had an ED RF as bad as Ward.

Upton/Trout/Marsh. 

 

[Angel Oracle]

2 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

He's actually been absolutely on fire since coming back from his injury.  I think he was still playing hurt earlier when he went into that long slump.  But in his AZ League and AAA games since coming back several days ago, he's been crushing the ball, getting walks, etc.

Marsh mentioned doing shoulder movements/exercises designed to minimize shoulder issues.

If they are minimized, he’s on his way to the bigs by no later than mid-August.

Remember that he got 2-3 months of reps at the alternate camp in 2020, after a strong 2019 AA season.

Edited July 14, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[Angelsjunky]

Ward has produced 0.2 WAR in 59 games. That projects to about 0.5 WAR over a full season, which is far below that of an average regular (2-3 WAR). Even if we assume that Ward is at the low point of a slump and will only play better from here on out, I don't see going beyond a 1-2 WAR pace. Meaning, Ward is the type of guy that you plug in when someone is injured, or you have no better options.

Maybe he has another gear in him, but I really don't see him ever becoming more than a 2 WAR player - which is low average. Meaning, he's essentially of the same caliber of player as Brian Goodwin. These types of players are useful as roster depth, but have no place as regulars on a contending team. They're platoon guys. 

Marsh is a potential star, whose floor is probably that of an average regular, and I think it far more likely that he is, at least, a good regular (3-4 WAR), if not a borderline star (4-5 WAR) with occasional all-star peaks (5+ WAR).

Marsh has the type of skill-set that breeds confidence. He's above average in just about every aspect of the game. He doesn't have Adell's power, Adam's speed, or Fletcher's contact ability, but he's the type of guy who should hit .280+ with 20+ HR and 20+ SB, with very good defense. 

He's also the type of player that will adjust relatively quickly. I'm not saying he'll be an insta-star (or borderline player), but I think he will hold his own from the beginning, and at least equal what Ward has produced. 

The only question about Marsh is his ability to stay healthy. He does seem to have a tendency to get injured. 

 

[Jason]

14 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

 

The only question about Marsh is his ability to stay healthy. He does seem to have a tendency to get injured. 

 

Since he’s that similar to Trout maybe he’ll put up his type of numbers. 

[rageous]

Ward has blown his chances of becoming the regular right fielder.

Angels have literally no room for mistakes and they need to play their best players at every position and cannot develop and wait for anyone to come around.

But only Gosselin has shown ability to hit major league pitching at above average level but he comes with limited defense at the position.

The other option is Lagares who provides below average bat but good defense.

Maybe a rental at the right fielder position is not a bad idea.

[totdprods]

22 minutes ago, rageous said:

Ward has blown his chances of becoming the regular right fielder.

Angels have literally no room for mistakes and they need to play their best players at every position and cannot develop and wait for anyone to come around.

But only Gosselin has shown ability to hit major league pitching at above average level but he comes with limited defense at the position.

The other option is Lagares who provides below average bat but good defense.

Maybe a rental at the right fielder position is not a bad idea.

Gosselin’s career .692 OPS isn’t much better than Ward’s career .666 OPS, and it’s come over three hundred more PA, so I wouldn’t say there’s a huge difference. 

Ward doesn’t even have a full 162 games under his belt, and he’s been about league average for the last two seasons. He’s in a slump now. He’s a fine fill-in.

[jsnpritchett]

3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Gosselin’s career .692 OPS isn’t much better than Ward’s career .666 OPS, and it’s come over three hundred more PA, so I wouldn’t say there’s a huge difference. 

Ward doesn’t even have a full 162 games under his belt, and he’s been about league average for the last two seasons. He’s in a slump now. He’s a fine fill-in.

Again, why are so many people framing Ward as "in a slump," rather than saying that maybe the late May to mid-June stretch was an abnormal hot stretch?

[Angelsjunky]

9 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Again, why are so many people framing Ward as "in a slump," rather than saying that maybe the late May to mid-June stretch was an abnormal hot stretch?

Right. Or, more likely in my opinion, the "real Ward" is somewhere in-between, and thus a solid platoon guy who is stretched as a regular. Brian Goodwin, redux.

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Brian Goodwin, redux.

Except, well, you know.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A right handed hitter.

[totdprods]

13 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Again, why are so many people framing Ward as "in a slump," rather than saying that maybe the late May to mid-June stretch was an abnormal hot stretch?

He had a similar abnormal hot stretch second half of last year. half hot + half cold = average.

[stormngt]

3 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

I guess it's all in how you choose to look at his season.  Rather than seeing him as currently in a slump, to me, it seems like he had a hot streak in the middle of the season to date that is surrounded by mediocre-to-poor play.  From May 20-June 18, he had a 27-game stretch in which he hit .307/.390/.545.  Before May 20, he hit .156/.235/.311.  Since June 18, he's at .167/.254/.250.  Coming into this season, he had a career slash line of .214/.283/.351.  As the season goes along, I'm starting to get concerned that that 27-game stretch is a true outlier, rather than a sign that he's stepping up to become a consistent contributor (or at least an average player).

Pessimism v optimism

[jsnpritchett]

2 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Pessimism v optimism

Realism vs. pollyannaism.

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Ward has produced 0.2 WAR in 59 games. That projects to about 0.5 WAR over a full season, which is far below that of an average regular (2-3 WAR). Even if we assume that Ward is at the low point of a slump and will only play better from here on out, I don't see going beyond a 1-2 WAR pace. Meaning, Ward is the type of guy that you plug in when someone is injured, or you have no better options.

Maybe he has another gear in him, but I really don't see him ever becoming more than a 2 WAR player - which is low average. Meaning, he's essentially of the same caliber of player as Brian Goodwin. These types of players are useful as roster depth, but have no place as regulars on a contending team. They're platoon guys. 

Marsh is a potential star, whose floor is probably that of an average regular, and I think it far more likely that he is, at least, a good regular (3-4 WAR), if not a borderline star (4-5 WAR) with occasional all-star peaks (5+ WAR).

Marsh has the type of skill-set that breeds confidence. He's above average in just about every aspect of the game. He doesn't have Adell's power, Adam's speed, or Fletcher's contact ability, but he's the type of guy who should hit .280+ with 20+ HR and 20+ SB, with very good defense. 

He's also the type of player that will adjust relatively quickly. I'm not saying he'll be an insta-star (or borderline player), but I think he will hold his own from the beginning, and at least equal what Ward has produced. 

The only question about Marsh is his ability to stay healthy. He does seem to have a tendency to get injured. 

 

First, you guys throw WAR and OPS plus out like a religion.  I have reviewed every MLB roster and about every team has 50% of in their lineup players below OPS 100 (average).  Who determines an average  is 2 to 3 War

  I read on here that OOS of 700 is about average.   

Ironically I kind of agree Ward is probably on the Goodwin level

Second, I  not doubting in the long run that Marsh is a far superior player than Ward.  I am just saying I believe Ward will do better through the end of this season.  

Have we ever had a rookie come in and take immediately?  Even Mike  Trout struggled his first time up in the majors.

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

Again, why are so many people framing Ward as "in a slump," rather than saying that maybe the late May to mid-June stretch was an abnormal hot stretch?

Because for a hitter the trend is usually a pattern of hit streaks to cold streaks the hot streaks and back to cold streaks.  That is baseball

Throughout the year we averages those numbers up and we get "averages". 

You cannot evaluate Ward based on his cold streaks and not take his hit streaks into consideration.

[stormngt]

22 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Realism vs. pollyannaism.

Now you are just acting like a dick.

 

[jsnpritchett]

7 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Now you are just acting like a dick.

 

Honestly, I'm not.  That's how I see it: people are being unrealistic regarding what to expect from him over time.  It's fine if you don't agree, but I'm not trying to be a jerk about it.

[jsnpritchett]

10 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Because for a hitter the trend is usually a pattern of hit streaks to cold streaks the hot streaks and back to cold streaks.  That is baseball

Throughout the year we averages those numbers up and we get "averages". 

You cannot evaluate Ward based on his cold streaks and not take his hit streaks into consideration.

I am taking his hot streak into consideration.  And in doing so, I'm saying that it seems like an outlier.  Even if you take his whole year so far into consideration, he's been a below average hitter and fielder.  Again, I'm not trying to be difficult, nor am I saying Ward is the worst player in the world, etc.  He's just not a guy who should be getting regular playing time at this point in his career (if ever).  I fully understand that others might disagree--and that's ok.

[JustATroutFan]

People have been in love with WAR (Wins Above Replacement) ever since 2012, the season where Trout became the player who he is today. We can all thank Trout for making Wins Above Replacement famous. I have never seen anyone say that Ward was a future star or anything. So people can have their doubts on his ability. And I mean, he's not exactly very young by MLB standards. There are players who are late bloomers like Donaldson. But that's rare. In Donaldson's first full season, 2013, he was posting All-Star numbers by the All-Star break. Ward? No. It's looking very, very unlikely for Ward to fall under that category. 

[stormngt]

55 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Honestly, I'm not.  That's how I see it: people are being unrealistic regarding what to expect from him over time.  It's fine if you don't agree, but I'm not trying to be a jerk about it.

I do not have a problem with a difference if opinion.  I even said optimist v pessimist.

You were dick with the "realist v pollyanna" comment.  Thay means you fo not respect my view.

[jsnpritchett]

1 minute ago, stormngt said:

I do not have a problem with a difference if opinion.  I even said optimist v pessimist.

You were dick with the "realist v pollyanna" comment.  Thay means you fo not respect my view.

No, it simply means that I don't think I'm being pessimistic.  I think I'm being realistic.  I'm not sure how being called a Pollyanna is any worse/better than being called a pessimist.  All good.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, stormngt said:

First, you guys throw WAR and OPS plus out like a religion.  I have reviewed every MLB roster and about every team has 50% of in their lineup players below OPS 100 (average).  Who determines an average  is 2 to 3 War

  I read on here that OOS of 700 is about average.   

Ironically I kind of agree Ward is probably on the Goodwin level

Second, I  not doubting in the long run that Marsh is a far superior player than Ward.  I am just saying I believe Ward will do better through the end of this season.  

Have we ever had a rookie come in and take immediately?  Even Mike  Trout struggled his first time up in the majors.

Are you an anti-WARist? I know, it can be annoying, but is the best stat we have for overall performance, and is an easy way to compare players.

Anyhow, 2-3 WAR as an average regular is just based on player distribution. Fangraphs defines WAR ranges like so:

Scrub	0-1 WAR
Role Player	1-2 WAR
Solid Starter	2-3 WAR
Good Player	3-4 WAR
All-Star	4-5 WAR
Superstar	5-6 WAR
MVP	6+ WAR

 

Obviously those aren't just regulars, but include "scrubs" and "role players" who, by definition, tend to not have qualifying playing time (502 PA, 162 IP). Of all qualifying players over the last ten full seasons (2010-19), the median WAR is 2.7, which is on the higher end of "solid starter." 

As for Ward, he isn't the worst player to have out there and I think it possible that he could even stabilize as a "low average" regular, around 2 WAR in a full season. Who knows, if he can hit above average (110 wRC+) and manage average defense in RF, he might even pull off 3 WAR.

But that basically is a worst-case scenario for Brandon Marsh, who I think could very easily be as good as Ward right now. I'm not saying that he wouldn't take his lumps if called up, but that it wouldn't take him long to surpass Ward, and he'd be better defensively right away.

I'm not saying that they should call Marsh up right now, but I certainly hope they do sometime in August. I mean, if he continues playing really well in AAA, why wait? Why keep the future at bay? The Angels can fill holes (gross) with guys like Ward and Eaton, but at some point, the future needs to arrive. That point, for Marsh, is very close. He really just needs to be healthy, and so I think a month or so of sustained health in AAA is all that is really necessary.

Unless, of course, the Angels want to play games with his club control, which would be a shame but understandable.

[stormngt]

53 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

I am taking his hot streak into consideration.  And in doing so, I'm saying that it seems like an outlier.  Even if you take his whole year so far into consideration, he's been a below average hitter and fielder.  Again, I'm not trying to be difficult, nor am I saying Ward is the worst player in the world, etc.  He's just not a guy who should be getting regular playing time at this point in his career (if ever).  I fully understand that others might disagree--and that's ok.

Again I  puzzled by the definition of below average, and average on by posters here.

I have read 700 oos is about league average.  However Ward is over 700.

I am told 100 ops+ is average but with the exception of Houston and Red Sox every team in the AL has at least 4 of their 9 players under 100. 

This is Wards second season with OPS over 700.

[stormngt]

2 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

No, it simply means that I don't think I'm being pessimistic.  I think I'm being realistic.  I'm not sure how being called a Pollyanna is any worse/better than being called a pessimist.  All good.

And the pollyanna comment is disrespectful to my views.