OC Register: Angels midseason breakdown: Next 13 games are critical

[Angelsjunky]

@stormngt, the Fangraphs WAR leaderboards for 2021 are here:

Position players

Pitchers

Combined

The first two are set for qualifying players only, while the combined, by default, is any and all players - but you can adjust accordingly.

Pardon me while I ramble for a bit. My intention is to provide a bit of understanding and context of what WAR means, or rather, what any given WAR number means relative to other players and major league history.

I think part of the confusion that some have with WAR is that it is a cumulative statistic, meaning it depends upon playing time. So when we say a "2 WAR player," that doesn't mean much outside of context: how much playing time a player has.

For example, Mike Trout has 2.3 WAR on the season, which sounds like average, right? But he did it in 36 games, which is a bit over 22% of a season. Meaning, he was actually on a 10.4 WAR pace. An average regular in his playing time would have produced around 0.4 or 0.5 WAR.

Furthermore, players range in playing time, from brief "cups of coffee" to a full-time leadoff man on a powerhouse offense, who may have over 700 plate appearances (the record is Jimmy Rollins with 778 PA in 2007). Actually, let's compare Rollins in 2007 to Trout in 2017. Rollins had 6.5 WAR, which is a great season, and earned the NL MVP for it. In 2017, Trout had 6.8 WAR. About the same quality, right? Well, Trout had that thumb injury and only played in 114 games, with 507 PA, just barely qualifying. Meaning, he produced slightly more WAR (+0.3), but in 271 fewer PA, or just under two-thirds of Rollins' playing time.

Who was more valuable, Rollins with 6.5 WAR in 778 PA or Trout with 6.8 in 507 PA? WAR says, "about the same," because the default assumption is that whoever replaces Trout, will do so at a 0 WAR replacement level. Maybe better, maybe more, but that's why it is "wins about replacement," rather than "wins above average." A replacement player is the type of guy that you can easily find in the high minors or on waivers, and plug in to replace an injured player. Whereas, average regulars are far more rare.

And remember, also, that there are only about 140-145ish qualifying position players in a given year, about 5 per team. So when you look at team statistics, only about 5 or so will end up with 500+ PA over a full season. Meaning, only a little more than half of any given team's starting lineup will end up qualifying. Every team is different, but that's the average. The rest of the playing time is filled up with part-time players, including regulars who lose time to injury, bench players, prospects, cups of coffee, etc.

In a typical year, there are usually about 450 position players with 100+ PA, and over 700 with 10+ PA (including pitchers). So only about 20% of all players with 10+ PA will qualify, meaning only about 20% of all hitters with 10 or more PA are "regulars," or regulars who play 75% or more of a full season.

The point being, an average major league regular is actually a very good player, compared to the field of all players. And as I said before, the typical median WAR of all qualifying position players is 2.7. But while a 2.7 WAR hitter might be an "average regular," he would be an above average or good player (as an aside, Byron Buxton produced 2.7 WAR before going down with injury...in 27 games. Meaning, he produced as much value as the median regular in just 27 games).

Pitchers complicate things, for a couple reasons. For one, fewer and fewer pitchers qualify, as inning counts have trended down for years now. In 2019, the last full season, only 61 pitchers qualified (162 IP+), or just two per team. Compare that to 2010, when 92 pitchers qualified. Actually, the big drop occurred between 2013-16, with 88, 78, 73, and 58 qualifiers. From 2017-19, it has been around 60 a year, although in the covid-shortened 2020 season, only 40 qualified (this year it is 63 so far, but will probably dip below 60 by season's end...it would seem that 60 is the new norm). Historically, it is a bit more stable, at least from 1970 onward, with about 3 qualifying pitchers per team compared to 2 over the last half decade.

Anyhow, of the 61 qualifying pitchers in 2019, the median was 3.3 WAR, whereas historically it has been more like 2.9. This increase is because, I think, in the current era, the lesser quality starters tend to not pitch as many innings. Meaning, managers are more prone to pull lesser pitchers, so the average is a bit higher.

Back to position players, a 2 WAR player is actually the 70th percentile of all players with 100+ PA, and a 3 WAR player is more like 83rd percentile. Meaning, an "average regular" produces more value than 70-80% of all players with 100+ PA, which includes most regulars, injured regulars, platoon players, and role players. So while it is easy to poo-poo a guy and say, "but he's only a 2 WAR player," that's still a very useful, solid player to have.

Or think of Justin Upton in 2018, when he had a 2.9 WAR in his first (and only, really) full season for the Angels. He was 60th among 140 qualifiers, so only better than 57% of them - so really a "good regular." But he was #69 out of 448 players with 100+ PA, so he was better than about 85% of all players with significant playing time.

It is also easy to forget just how good a 4 WAR player is, which is where we start getting to different degrees of stardom. If 2-3 WAR is an average regular and 3-4 a good regular, 4 is the "gateway to the stars." From 2010-19, a ten-year span, there were only 440 player seasons of 4+ WAR, or 44 per year. Meaning, a major league team--on average, has one or two 4 WAR players, very rarely more than that.

Or if we want to come closer to whole numbers, the average major league team has only one position player of 4.5 WAR or higher, two position players of 3.5 or higher, and four or five position players of 2 WAR or higher, and about eleven position players with positive WAR (0.1 better).

Higher WARs are even more rare. In any given season, there is usually only one player with 9 WAR or higher in the entire major leagues, meaning if a player reaches 9 WAR, chances are he had the best season in the majors. There are on average only about two 8+ WAR players, five 7+ WAR players, a dozen 6+ WAR players, and two dozen 5+ WAR players.  Meaning, if you reach 8 WAR, chances are you're one of the two best players in the game; 7 WAR and you're top 5, 6 WAR one of the dozen or so best, and a potential MVP candidate. A typical team's best player is around 5 WAR, plus or minus.

Or to put it another way, the vast majority (about 80%) of 100+ PA players have between -0.5 WAR and 3.9 WAR. Only about 10% are above (4+ WAR), and only about 10% are below (-0.6 WAR or worse). Only about 5% are 5+ WAR, and only about 3% have -1.1 WAR or worse.

10 WAR is a historic season, with only 53 such position player seasons since the two major leagues in 1901, most of them by a handful of all-time greats. Or if we look at only the laste half century, from 1970 to the present, only 13 such seasons have occurred: Bonds five times, Trout twice, and once each by Morgan, Ripken, Henderson, A Rodriguez, Posey and Betts. In that same span of time, on 23 seasons have been -2.0 or lower, with Chris Davis' -3.1 in 2018 one of the ten worst seasons in major league history, and the 4th worst qualifying season.

Anyhow, I rambled on way too long. Hopefully this provides context for those interested in better understanding what a given WAR number means.

[tdawg87]

[JustATroutFan]

20 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

@stormngt, the Fangraphs WAR leaderboards for 2021 are here:

Position players

Pitchers

Combined

The first two are set for qualifying players only, while the combined, by default, is any and all players - but you can adjust accordingly.

Pardon me while I ramble for a bit. My intention is to provide a bit of understanding and context of what WAR means, or rather, what any given WAR number means relative to other players and major league history.

I think part of the confusion that some have with WAR is that it is a cumulative statistic, meaning it depends upon playing time. So when we say a "2 WAR player," that doesn't mean much outside of context: how much playing time a player has.

For example, Mike Trout has 2.3 WAR on the season, which sounds like average, right? But he did it in 36 games, which is a bit over 22% of a season. Meaning, he was actually on a 10.4 WAR pace. An average regular in his playing time would have produced around 0.4 or 0.5 WAR.

Furthermore, players range in playing time, from brief "cups of coffee" to a full-time leadoff man on a powerhouse offense, who may have over 700 plate appearances (the record is Jimmy Rollins with 778 PA in 2007). Actually, let's compare Rollins in 2007 to Trout in 2017. Rollins had 6.5 WAR, which is a great season, and earned the NL MVP for it. In 2017, Trout had 6.8 WAR. About the same quality, right? Well, Trout had that thumb injury and only played in 114 games, with 507 PA, just barely qualifying. Meaning, he produced slightly more WAR (+0.3), but in 271 fewer PA, or just under two-thirds of Rollins' playing time.

Who was more valuable, Rollins with 6.5 WAR in 778 PA or Trout with 6.8 in 507 PA? WAR says, "about the same," because the default assumption is that whoever replaces Trout, will do so at a 0 WAR replacement level. Maybe better, maybe more, but that's why it is "wins about replacement," rather than "wins above average." A replacement player is the type of guy that you can easily find in the high minors or on waivers, and plug in to replace an injured player. Whereas, average regulars are far more rare.

And remember, also, that there are only about 140-145ish qualifying position players in a given year, about 5 per team. So when you look at team statistics, only about 5 or so will end up with 500+ PA over a full season. Meaning, only a little more than half of any given team's starting lineup will end up qualifying. Every team is different, but that's the average. The rest of the playing time is filled up with part-time players, including regulars who lose time to injury, bench players, prospects, cups of coffee, etc.

In a typical year, there are usually about 450 position players with 100+ PA, and over 700 with 10+ PA (including pitchers). So only about 20% of all players with 10+ PA will qualify, meaning only about 20% of all hitters with 10 or more PA are "regulars," or regulars who play 75% or more of a full season.

The point being, an average major league regular is actually a very good player, compared to the field of all players. And as I said before, the typical median WAR of all qualifying position players is 2.7. But while a 2.7 WAR hitter might be an "average regular," he would be an above average or good player (as an aside, Byron Buxton produced 2.7 WAR before going down with injury...in 27 games. Meaning, he produced as much value as the median regular in just 27 games).

Pitchers complicate things, for a couple reasons. For one, fewer and fewer pitchers qualify, as inning counts have trended down for years now. In 2019, the last full season, only 61 pitchers qualified (162 IP+), or just two per team. Compare that to 2010, when 92 pitchers qualified. Actually, the big drop occurred between 2013-16, with 88, 78, 73, and 58 qualifiers. From 2017-19, it has been around 60 a year, although in the covid-shortened 2020 season, only 40 qualified (this year it is 63 so far, but will probably dip below 60 by season's end...it would seem that 60 is the new norm). Historically, it is a bit more stable, at least from 1970 onward, with about 3 qualifying pitchers per team compared to 2 over the last half decade.

Anyhow, of the 61 qualifying pitchers in 2019, the median was 3.3 WAR, whereas historically it has been more like 2.9. This increase is because, I think, in the current era, the lesser quality starters tend to not pitch as many innings. Meaning, managers are more prone to pull lesser pitchers, so the average is a bit higher.

Back to position players, a 2 WAR player is actually the 70th percentile of all players with 100+ PA, and a 3 WAR player is more like 83rd percentile. Meaning, an "average regular" produces more value than 70-80% of all players with 100+ PA, which includes most regulars, injured regulars, platoon players, and role players. So while it is easy to poo-poo a guy and say, "but he's only a 2 WAR player," that's still a very useful, solid player to have.

Or think of Justin Upton in 2018, when he had a 2.9 WAR in his first (and only, really) full season for the Angels. He was 60th among 140 qualifiers, so only better than 57% of them - so really a "good regular." But he was #69 out of 448 players with 100+ PA, so he was better than about 85% of all players with significant playing time.

It is also easy to forget just how good a 4 WAR player is, which is where we start getting to different degrees of stardom. If 2-3 WAR is an average regular and 3-4 a good regular, 4 is the "gateway to the stars." From 2010-19, a ten-year span, there were only 440 player seasons of 4+ WAR, or 44 per year. Meaning, a major league team--on average, has one or two 4 WAR players, very rarely more than that.

Or if we want to come closer to whole numbers, the average major league team has only one position player of 4.5 WAR or higher, two position players of 3.5 or higher, and four or five position players of 2 WAR or higher, and about eleven position players with positive WAR (0.1 better).

Higher WARs are even more rare. In any given season, there is usually only one player with 9 WAR or higher in the entire major leagues, meaning if a player reaches 9 WAR, chances are he had the best season in the majors. There are on average only about two 8+ WAR players, five 7+ WAR players, a dozen 6+ WAR players, and two dozen 5+ WAR players.  Meaning, if you reach 8 WAR, chances are you're one of the two best players in the game; 7 WAR and you're top 5, 6 WAR one of the dozen or so best, and a potential MVP candidate. A typical team's best player is around 5 WAR, plus or minus.

Or to put it another way, the vast majority (about 80%) of 100+ PA players have between -0.5 WAR and 3.9 WAR. Only about 10% are above (4+ WAR), and only about 10% are below (-0.6 WAR or worse). Only about 5% are 5+ WAR, and only about 3% have -1.1 WAR or worse.

10 WAR is a historic season, with only 53 such position player seasons since the two major leagues in 1901, most of them by a handful of all-time greats. Or if we look at only the laste half century, from 1970 to the present, only 13 such seasons have occurred: Bonds five times, Trout twice, and once each by Morgan, Ripken, Henderson, A Rodriguez, Posey and Betts. In that same span of time, on 23 seasons have been -2.0 or lower, with Chris Davis' -3.1 in 2018 one of the ten worst seasons in major league history, and the 4th worst qualifying season.

Anyhow, I rambled on way too long. Hopefully this provides context for those interested in better understanding what a given WAR number means.

Excellent post. We're just going to enjoy Trout's greatness until it's gone. There are signs that he's declining as an elite all-around player. His stolen base numbers are down since 2020 and he doesn't play terrific defense in center anymore. Plus, he's been striking out a lot since last season after having a good stretch of about 4-5 years where he was solid at not striking out by today's MLB standards. He's due to have one of those seasons where he puts up something like a .270/.360/.500 slash line. He's about to turn 30 years old in just over a month, so time does go by fast. It's reasonable to think that he only has like 2-3 more seasons of superstar play before the decline starts. It would feel weird when the day comes where Trout finishes a regular season with a below average slash line for his standards. It would be like a rose suddenly losing its beautiful smell. 

[jsnpritchett]

3 minutes ago, JustATroutFan said:

Excellent post. We're just going to enjoy Trout's greatness until it's gone. There are signs that he's declining as an elite all-around player. His stolen base numbers are down since 2020 and he doesn't play terrific defense in center anymore. Plus, he's been striking out a lot since last season after having a good stretch of about 4-5 years where he was solid at not striking out by today's MLB standards. He's due to have one of those seasons where he puts up something like a .270/.360/.500 slash line. He's about to turn 30 years old in just over a month, so time does go by fast. It's reasonable to think that he only has like 2-3 more seasons of superstar play before the decline starts. It would feel weird when the day comes where Trout finishes a regular season with a below average slash line for his standards. It would be like a rose suddenly losing its beautiful smell. 

Ok, NotReallyATroutFanAnymore...

[stormngt]

37 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

@stormngt, the Fangraphs WAR leaderboards for 2021 are here:

Position players

Pitchers

Combined

The first two are set for qualifying players only, while the combined, by default, is any and all players - but you can adjust accordingly.

Pardon me while I ramble for a bit. My intention is to provide a bit of understanding and context of what WAR means, or rather, what any given WAR number means relative to other players and major league history.

I think part of the confusion that some have with WAR is that it is a cumulative statistic, meaning it depends upon playing time. So when we say a "2 WAR player," that doesn't mean much outside of context: how much playing time a player has.

For example, Mike Trout has 2.3 WAR on the season, which sounds like average, right? But he did it in 36 games, which is a bit over 22% of a season. Meaning, he was actually on a 10.4 WAR pace. An average regular in his playing time would have produced around 0.4 or 0.5 WAR.

Furthermore, players range in playing time, from brief "cups of coffee" to a full-time leadoff man on a powerhouse offense, who may have over 700 plate appearances (the record is Jimmy Rollins with 778 PA in 2007). Actually, let's compare Rollins in 2007 to Trout in 2017. Rollins had 6.5 WAR, which is a great season, and earned the NL MVP for it. In 2017, Trout had 6.8 WAR. About the same quality, right? Well, Trout had that thumb injury and only played in 114 games, with 507 PA, just barely qualifying. Meaning, he produced slightly more WAR (+0.3), but in 271 fewer PA, or just under two-thirds of Rollins' playing time.

Who was more valuable, Rollins with 6.5 WAR in 778 PA or Trout with 6.8 in 507 PA? WAR says, "about the same," because the default assumption is that whoever replaces Trout, will do so at a 0 WAR replacement level. Maybe better, maybe more, but that's why it is "wins about replacement," rather than "wins above average." A replacement player is the type of guy that you can easily find in the high minors or on waivers, and plug in to replace an injured player. Whereas, average regulars are far more rare.

And remember, also, that there are only about 140-145ish qualifying position players in a given year, about 5 per team. So when you look at team statistics, only about 5 or so will end up with 500+ PA over a full season. Meaning, only a little more than half of any given team's starting lineup will end up qualifying. Every team is different, but that's the average. The rest of the playing time is filled up with part-time players, including regulars who lose time to injury, bench players, prospects, cups of coffee, etc.

In a typical year, there are usually about 450 position players with 100+ PA, and over 700 with 10+ PA (including pitchers). So only about 20% of all players with 10+ PA will qualify, meaning only about 20% of all hitters with 10 or more PA are "regulars," or regulars who play 75% or more of a full season.

The point being, an average major league regular is actually a very good player, compared to the field of all players. And as I said before, the typical median WAR of all qualifying position players is 2.7. But while a 2.7 WAR hitter might be an "average regular," he would be an above average or good player (as an aside, Byron Buxton produced 2.7 WAR before going down with injury...in 27 games. Meaning, he produced as much value as the median regular in just 27 games).

Pitchers complicate things, for a couple reasons. For one, fewer and fewer pitchers qualify, as inning counts have trended down for years now. In 2019, the last full season, only 61 pitchers qualified (162 IP+), or just two per team. Compare that to 2010, when 92 pitchers qualified. Actually, the big drop occurred between 2013-16, with 88, 78, 73, and 58 qualifiers. From 2017-19, it has been around 60 a year, although in the covid-shortened 2020 season, only 40 qualified (this year it is 63 so far, but will probably dip below 60 by season's end...it would seem that 60 is the new norm). Historically, it is a bit more stable, at least from 1970 onward, with about 3 qualifying pitchers per team compared to 2 over the last half decade.

Anyhow, of the 61 qualifying pitchers in 2019, the median was 3.3 WAR, whereas historically it has been more like 2.9. This increase is because, I think, in the current era, the lesser quality starters tend to not pitch as many innings. Meaning, managers are more prone to pull lesser pitchers, so the average is a bit higher.

Back to position players, a 2 WAR player is actually the 70th percentile of all players with 100+ PA, and a 3 WAR player is more like 83rd percentile. Meaning, an "average regular" produces more value than 70-80% of all players with 100+ PA, which includes most regulars, injured regulars, platoon players, and role players. So while it is easy to poo-poo a guy and say, "but he's only a 2 WAR player," that's still a very useful, solid player to have.

Or think of Justin Upton in 2018, when he had a 2.9 WAR in his first (and only, really) full season for the Angels. He was 60th among 140 qualifiers, so only better than 57% of them - so really a "good regular." But he was #69 out of 448 players with 100+ PA, so he was better than about 85% of all players with significant playing time.

It is also easy to forget just how good a 4 WAR player is, which is where we start getting to different degrees of stardom. If 2-3 WAR is an average regular and 3-4 a good regular, 4 is the "gateway to the stars." From 2010-19, a ten-year span, there were only 440 player seasons of 4+ WAR, or 44 per year. Meaning, a major league team--on average, has one or two 4 WAR players, very rarely more than that.

Or if we want to come closer to whole numbers, the average major league team has only one position player of 4.5 WAR or higher, two position players of 3.5 or higher, and four or five position players of 2 WAR or higher, and about eleven position players with positive WAR (0.1 better).

Higher WARs are even more rare. In any given season, there is usually only one player with 9 WAR or higher in the entire major leagues, meaning if a player reaches 9 WAR, chances are he had the best season in the majors. There are on average only about two 8+ WAR players, five 7+ WAR players, a dozen 6+ WAR players, and two dozen 5+ WAR players.  Meaning, if you reach 8 WAR, chances are you're one of the two best players in the game; 7 WAR and you're top 5, 6 WAR one of the dozen or so best, and a potential MVP candidate. A typical team's best player is around 5 WAR, plus or minus.

Or to put it another way, the vast majority (about 80%) of 100+ PA players have between -0.5 WAR and 3.9 WAR. Only about 10% are above (4+ WAR), and only about 10% are below (-0.6 WAR or worse). Only about 5% are 5+ WAR, and only about 3% have -1.1 WAR or worse.

10 WAR is a historic season, with only 53 such position player seasons since the two major leagues in 1901, most of them by a handful of all-time greats. Or if we look at only the laste half century, from 1970 to the present, only 13 such seasons have occurred: Bonds five times, Trout twice, and once each by Morgan, Ripken, Henderson, A Rodriguez, Posey and Betts. In that same span of time, on 23 seasons have been -2.0 or lower, with Chris Davis' -3.1 in 2018 one of the ten worst seasons in major league history, and the 4th worst qualifying season.

Anyhow, I rambled on way too long. Hopefully this provides context for those interested in better understanding what a given WAR number means.

Thanks.  It explains a lot and clarifies many things I am confused about.

So when you say 2 WAR is an average it really means average among qualifying players and above average for all players.

The playing time issue also impacts Ward as he currently isn't a qualifying player with only 219 at bats.  

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, JustATroutFan said:

Excellent post. We're just going to enjoy Trout's greatness until it's gone. There are signs that he's declining as an elite all-around player. His stolen base numbers are down since 2020 and he doesn't play terrific defense in center anymore. Plus, he's been striking out a lot since last season after having a good stretch of about 4-5 years where he was solid at not striking out by today's MLB standards. He's due to have one of those seasons where he puts up something like a .270/.360/.500 slash line. He's about to turn 30 years old in just over a month, so time does go by fast. It's reasonable to think that he only has like 2-3 more seasons of superstar play before the decline starts. It would feel weird when the day comes where Trout finishes a regular season with a below average slash line for his standards. It would be like a rose suddenly losing its beautiful smell. 

Thanks. And yes, as great as we all know he is, I think most of us don't realize just how great--or at least, historically rare--as far as sustained level of super-greatness. Or to put another way:

Two or more 10 WAR seasons: Ruth 9, Hornsby 6, Bonds 5, Williams 4, Mays 4, Cobb 3, Musial 3, Wagner 2, Gehrig 2, Trout 2.

Five or more 9 WAR seasons:  Ruth 10, Hornsby 8, Bonds 8, Mays 7, Wagner 6, Williams 6, A Rodriguez 6, Collins 5, Cobb 5, Gehrig 5, Trout 5.

Seven or more 8 WAR seasons:  Ruth 11, Mays 11, Bonds 10, Wagner 8, Hornsby 8, Gehrig 8, Williams 8, Collins 7, Trout 7.

That is, obviously, quite exclusive company.

As for his inevitable decline, I think the main concern is his health. But I'm not too worried about the stolen bases, as that has less to do with declined speed (it hasn't) than it does with preventing injury, imo. 

Further, his performance early in this season assuaged my concerns that he was going to imminently turn into a .270, 35 HR guy. The worry was his spike in launch angle a few years ago, which usually precipitates decline. His LA this year is much lower, implying that he's hitting more line drives, which will help him keep his average up. 

One more thing. In tennis, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic have continued to dominate the sport, deep into their 30s. There are several reasons for this, including weaker younger generations, but a major part of it is that they are (or were, in Federer's case) so much better than everyone else in their prime. Meaning, If they were all "10s" in their prime, the next best players are "7s," and even if they decline to 9 and then 8, they're still better than everyone else (and, I would argue, that those three are the first ever "10s").

My point being, Trout has a long way to fall. His seven full seasons have been 8.3 WAR or higher, with five of them over 9 WAR, meaning he's a true talent 9 WAR player. If he slips a bit, he might be a 7 WAR player for a few years, then a 5.

So while I agree that he probably only has two or three levels as a 9 WAR player, I think there's a good chance he'll still be a star (5+ WAR) for several years after that.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, stormngt said:

Thanks.  It explains a lot and clarifies many things I am confused about.

So when you say 2 WAR is an average it really means average among qualifying players and above average for all players.

The playing time issue also impacts Ward as he currently isn't a qualifying player with only 219 at bats.  

Yes, exactly (your 2nd sentence). 2 WAR is the lower end of "average regular," 3 WAR on the higher end. But given that there are only about 130 position players in a typical season that reach 2 WAR, it is still a solid producer.

 

[tdawg87]

Thank you @Angelsjunky for explaining WAR to @stormngt. I'm terrible at it so I just bust his balls instead. 

It really is a useful "catch-all" stat. But obviously it's far from perfect.

[JustATroutFan]

23 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Thanks. And yes, as great as we all know he is, I think most of us don't realize just how great--or at least, historically rare--as far as sustained level of super-greatness. Or to put another way:

Two or more 10 WAR seasons: Ruth 9, Hornsby 6, Bonds 5, Williams 4, Mays 4, Cobb 3, Musial 3, Wagner 2, Gehrig 2, Trout 2.

Five or more 9 WAR seasons:  Ruth 10, Hornsby 8, Bonds 8, Mays 7, Wagner 6, Williams 6, A Rodriguez 6, Collins 5, Cobb 5, Gehrig 5, Trout 5.

Seven or more 8 WAR seasons:  Ruth 11, Mays 11, Bonds 10, Wagner 8, Hornsby 8, Gehrig 8, Williams 8, Collins 7, Trout 7.

That is, obviously, quite exclusive company.

As for his inevitable decline, I think the main concern is his health. But I'm not too worried about the stolen bases, as that has less to do with declined speed (it hasn't) than it does with preventing injury, imo. 

Further, his performance early in this season assuaged my concerns that he was going to imminently turn into a .270, 35 HR guy. The worry was his spike in launch angle a few years ago, which usually precipitates decline. His LA this year is much lower, implying that he's hitting more line drives, which will help him keep his average up. 

One more thing. In tennis, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic have continued to dominate the sport, deep into their 30s. There are several reasons for this, including weaker younger generations, but a major part of it is that they are (or were, in Federer's case) so much better than everyone else in their prime. Meaning, If they were all "10s" in their prime, the next best players are "7s," and even if they decline to 9 and then 8, they're still better than everyone else (and, I would argue, that those three are the first ever "10s").

My point being, Trout has a long way to fall. His seven full seasons have been 8.3 WAR or higher, with five of them over 9 WAR, meaning he's a true talent 9 WAR player. If he slips a bit, he might be a 7 WAR player for a few years, then a 5.

So while I agree that he probably only has two or three levels as a 9 WAR player, I think there's a good chance he'll still be a star (5+ WAR) for several years after that.

Fair point on his stolen base total this season. I don't think his 2017 injury had anything to do with him not stealing bases since 2020. He did stole 24 bags in 140 games in 2018, still a terrific amount. I guess the only real issue with him at the plate this season is him striking out a lot again like he did in 2014 and 2020. 2014, he had a hard time hitting the high fastball. 2021, still has issues with that pitch but to me, his inflated strikeout total also has something to do with pitchers like Bauer and Glasnow cheating with sticky substances. I'll take his inflated strikeout total so far this season with a grain of salt. 

[Angelsjunky]

30 minutes ago, JustATroutFan said:

Fair point on his stolen base total this season. I don't think his 2017 injury had anything to do with him not stealing bases since 2020. He did stole 24 bags in 140 games in 2018, still a terrific amount. I guess the only real issue with him at the plate this season is him striking out a lot again like he did in 2014 and 2020. 2014, he had a hard time hitting the high fastball. 2021, still has issues with that pitch but to me, his inflated strikeout total also has something to do with pitchers like Bauer and Glasnow cheating with sticky substances. I'll take his inflated strikeout total so far this season with a grain of salt. 

His sprint speed hasn't gone down at all. Statcast has him at 29.7 feet/s in 2015, the year they started, and then between 28.9 to 29.4 every year since. 29.3 this year, a bit faster than last year's 28.9, actually.

The point being, if he lost a half (more like, quarter) step, it was five or six years ago - and really only an inch or two per second. He might have been a tad faster in 2012-15, but I'm not sure (Statcast doesn't have numbers for 2012-14).

Note also that K% for all hitters have gone steadily up for some years now. Actually, they have gone up (or, a couple times, held steady, but never declined) every year since 2005. From 16.4% in 2005 to 23.8% in 2021.

From the 1950s through 2000ish they've fluctuated in the 12-17% range, going up and down over different periods. But the last 15 years seems a bit different. Maybe the sticky stuff!

Edited July 15, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[Angels Fan Forever]

On 7/14/2021 at 12:34 PM, jsnpritchett said:

I guess it's all in how you choose to look at his season.  Rather than seeing him as currently in a slump, to me, it seems like he had a hot streak in the middle of the season to date that is surrounded by mediocre-to-poor play.  From May 20-June 18, he had a 27-game stretch in which he hit .307/.390/.545.  Before May 20, he hit .156/.235/.311.  Since June 18, he's at .167/.254/.250.  Coming into this season, he had a career slash line of .214/.283/.351.  As the season goes along, I'm starting to get concerned that that 27-game stretch is a true outlier, rather than a sign that he's stepping up to become a consistent contributor (or at least an average player).

I think you're right here. Ward will probably not be on the roster when Trout and/or Upton return.

[tdawg87]

Ward is what he is. But guys like him are valuable. He can play several positions and isn't a complete disaster at them or at the plate (overall).

We also have Thaiss who seems to have disappeared off the planet, but he's basically left handed Ward. 

[JustATroutFan]

9 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

His sprint speed hasn't gone down at all. Statcast has him at 29.7 feet/s in 2015, the year they started, and then between 28.9 to 29.4 every year since. 29.3 this year, a bit faster than last year's 28.9, actually.

The point being, if he lost a half (more like, quarter) step, it was five or six years ago - and really only an inch or two per second. He might have been a tad faster in 2012-15, but I'm not sure (Statcast doesn't have numbers for 2012-14).

Note also that K% for all hitters have gone steadily up for some years now. Actually, they have gone up (or, a couple times, held steady, but never declined) every year since 2005. From 16.4% in 2005 to 23.8% in 2021.

From the 1950s through 2000ish they've fluctuated in the 12-17% range, going up and down over different periods. But the last 15 years seems a bit different. Maybe the sticky stuff!

I just think the reason that Trout isn't stealing a lot of bases these days is because he's trying to not get hurt. But interestingly enough, his stolen base totals are all over the place. He's had seasons where he was stealing a lot of bases but had seasons where he wasn't that much of a base stealer. So who knows, maybe he'll decide to rack up a few more 25-stolen base seasons. I do love Trout's mindset if he was thinking about displaying that all-around game again. It would be nice if he ends his career as a member of the 500-300 club. I know Bonds did it. Mays, probably, without looking up his numbers right now, But even if he's not stealing bases, just having that ability to still do it will still distract pitchers and give the other Angels' hitters more good pitches to hit than if he wasn't a threat to steal bases. 

I'm still amazed that Reggie's strikeout record of 2,597 isn't broken yet. I think someone is going to break his strikeout record within a couple of decades. He was the first hitter to ever strike out at least 2,000 times in the regular season and had to wait 20 seasons until "The Big Cat", who ended with 2,003 strikeouts in the regular season, joined him in the 2,000 strikeout club for hitters. For good measure, the other four hitters who have struck out at least 2,000 times in the regular season are Thome (2,548), Dunn (2,387), Sosa (2,306), and A-Rod (2,287). By next season, if things go as plan, Upton should join the 2,000 strikeout club by next season. He's currently struck out 1,915 times in the regular season. Upton will be a free agent at the end of the 2022 and a few months ago, before Maddon made a great move and put him at leadoff, I felt that Upton only had like 1-2 more seasons left in him. Now, since he's hitting again, I could see him playing an extra 2-3 more seasons in the Major Leagues. If that is the case, he'll get close to breaking Reggie's career strikeout record. 

[Angelsjunky]

24 minutes ago, JustATroutFan said:

I just think the reason that Trout isn't stealing a lot of bases these days is because he's trying to not get hurt. But interestingly enough, his stolen base totals are all over the place. He's had seasons where he was stealing a lot of bases but had seasons where he wasn't that much of a base stealer. So who knows, maybe he'll decide to rack up a few more 25-stolen base seasons. I do love Trout's mindset if he was thinking about displaying that all-around game again. It would be nice if he ends his career as a member of the 500-300 club. I know Bonds did it. Mays, probably, without looking up his numbers right now, But even if he's not stealing bases, just having that ability to still do it will still distract pitchers and give the other Angels' hitters more good pitches to hit than if he wasn't a threat to steal bases. 

I'm still amazed that Reggie's strikeout record of 2,597 isn't broken yet. I think someone is going to break his strikeout record within a couple of decades. He was the first hitter to ever strike out at least 2,000 times in the regular season and had to wait 20 seasons until "The Big Cat", who ended with 2,003 strikeouts in the regular season, joined him in the 2,000 strikeout club for hitters. For good measure, the other four hitters who have struck out at least 2,000 times in the regular season are Thome (2,548), Dunn (2,387), Sosa (2,306), and A-Rod (2,287). By next season, if things go as plan, Upton should join the 2,000 strikeout club by next season. He's currently struck out 1,915 times in the regular season. Upton will be a free agent at the end of the 2022 and a few months ago, before Maddon made a great move and put him at leadoff, I felt that Upton only had like 1-2 more seasons left in him. Now, since he's hitting again, I could see him playing an extra 2-3 more seasons in the Major Leagues. If that is the case, he'll get close to breaking Reggie's career strikeout record. 

Miguel Cabrera might join it as well - he's at 1886, with $64M owed for 2022-23. He'll probably Pujolsed, and maybe with no takers, as his power has completely left him.

Others who have a chance of reaching 2000: Longoria (1514) and Stanton (1482). Votto (1412) and Goldschmidt (1344) might not play long enough to get there.

Trout's at 1215, so would need to average over 138 Ks per season over the course of his contract, including this year. With his penchant for injury, I don't see him breaking Reggie's record, unless he's really healthy and/or plays a couple years beyond his contract.

[JustATroutFan]

15 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Miguel Cabrera might join it as well - he's at 1886, with $64M owed for 2022-23. He'll probably Pujolsed, and maybe with no takers, as his power has completely left him.

Others who have a chance of reaching 2000: Longoria (1514) and Stanton (1482). Votto (1412) and Goldschmidt (1344) might not play long enough to get there.

Trout's at 1215, so would need to average over 138 Ks per season over the course of his contract, including this year. With his penchant for injury, I don't see him breaking Reggie's record, unless he's really healthy and/or plays a couple years beyond his contract.

Miggy did stated that he was going to play out his final season of his contract, so he's got, which is likely, two more seasons after this one to get to 2,000 strikeouts. I'm not certain that he'll get to 2,000 by the end of 2022 because he's been injury prone for a long time. But there's a great chance that he'll just make it to 2,000 once it's all over. I don't see him playing for any big league club after 2023. He's never been a good defensive player and now that he can't hit anymore, he's toast before 2024. Stanton would be at like 1,900 strikeouts by now if he wasn't so injury prone. But I mean, he's still going to strike out like 150 times a season even if he misses a decent amount of games per season, so he can't hide from 2,000. Yankees are stuck with him for a long time and he's not exactly well-liked by their fan base. They're going to have a tough time winning a World Series in the Stanton era because their hitters strike out so much. The 2002 Angels didn't have a superstar player but that team did put the ball in play at a high clip, which was a big reason why they won the World Series. At this point, I won't get too upset if Trout breaks the all-time strikeout record. Like Reggie, it will be because of longevity. Ruth was once the all-time strikeout king. So was Mantle. And Stargell. All legends of the game who stuck around for a long time. 

[Angels Fan Forever]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

Ward is what he is. But guys like him are valuable. He can play several positions and isn't a complete disaster at them or at the plate (overall).

We also have Thaiss who seems to have disappeared off the planet, but he's basically left handed Ward. 

If you look at his metrics Ward is a below average hitter and outfielder. And he is worse this year than last year. He is 27.

Pretty sure he won't be on the roster when Trout and/or Upton return.

[tdawg87]

9 minutes ago, Angels Fan Forever said:

If you look at his metrics Ward is a below average hitter and outfielder. And he is worse this year than last year. He is 27.

Pretty sure he won't be on the roster when Trout and/or Upton return.

We need bench players. 

[Angelsjunky]

12 minutes ago, Angels Fan Forever said:

If you look at his metrics Ward is a below average hitter and outfielder. And he is worse this year than last year. He is 27.

Pretty sure he won't be on the roster when Trout and/or Upton return.

He's exactly the same hitter this year as last, according to wRC+ and wOBA. I'd say he's pretty average (98 wRC+), plus or minus.

I'm not sure I agree with the last part. He just might move to the bench. They probably want to keep Lagares for his defense, but they might keep Ward on the roster over, say, one of Rojas, Mayfield, or Wong. Once Upton and Trout come back, he might be sent back to AAA, if he isn't part of some trade.

And of course, hopefully we see Thaiss, Marsh, and possibly Adell later this year. At that point, I don't see Ward holding his job.

[Angels Fan Forever]

11 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I'm not sure I agree with the last part. He just might move to the bench. They probably want to keep Lagares for his defense, but they might keep Ward on the roster over, say, one of Rojas, Mayfield, or Wong. Once Upton and Trout come back, he might be sent back to AAA, if he isn't part of some trade.

Rojas was optioned to SLC yesterday. Pretty sure adding Eaton means Ward will be gone. I'm guessing he still has options so AAA? I don't think Minasian carries 5 OFers.

[UndertheHalo]

21 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

We need bench players. 

I don’t understand why so many people don’t get this.  The concept of depth seems to escape them.  Somehow. 

[tdawg87]

18 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

I don’t understand why so many people don’t get this.  The concept of depth seems to escape them.  Somehow. 

I mean, it's easy to forget. 

A guy like Gosselin is doing well right now but the immediate thought people have is "how do we keep him in the lineup once everyone is healthy?" He has a career 86 OPS+ and he's 32. He's a good Phil-in player. Same with Ward. 

Role players are incredibly important. If your bench sucks you probably aren't going to be successful. It's the bullpen of the lineup.

[UndertheHalo]

Just now, tdawg87 said:

I mean, it's easy to forget. 

A guy like Gosselin is doing well right now but the immediate thought people have is "how do we keep him in the lineup once everyone is healthy?" He has a career 86 OPS+ and he's 32. He's a good Phil-in player. Same with Ward. 

Role players are incredibly important. If your bench sucks you probably aren't going to be successful. It's the bullpen of the lineup.

I think you’re being generous.  Shit depth isn’t an idea that should be tough for Angels fans in the last decade.  Anyway. 

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, UndertheHalo said:

I think you’re being generous.  Shit depth isn’t an idea that should be tough for Angels fans in the last decade.  Anyway. 

I think when people think of "depth" they think "pitchers".

[UndertheHalo]

Also Ward could still develop into a reasonably decent everyday player.  Most likely a bench/utility type but the tool kit is there for him to develop into a bit better.  He’s cheap.  He’s a decently useful asset with a little upside.  Successful teams need guys like Ward.  As the Tdawg is saying. 

Edited July 16, 2021 by UndertheHalo

[totdprods]

Everyone’s zeroing in on Ward because he basically has the ugliest slash as far as every day starters…it’s funny because the last few years, there was a handful of guys at any given time doing markedly worse.

Ward at .700 OPS/90 OPS+ is just fine for ‘worst’ guy in the lineup.