Marcus Stroman tweets

[tdawg87]

42 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I'll do the research later or tomorrow. My post was focusing on rotation, because that has been the focus of discussion about the offseason. It clearly states that you don't need more than a #2 and three solid #3s total. You don't need a #1, you don't need five good starters. You need three good starters, one of whom should be very good.

I agree you don't need 5 good starters, especially since at least one of them won't be on the roster or moved to the pen. But yes, 3 good starters with one being very good is a simple but accurate way to put it.

We don't have that. Which is why we need a Stroman or Bauer to give us that. Bauer, Bundy, Heaney, Canning? That's....not bad.

The bullpen needs a lock down closer, too. Unfortunately, as I've said previously, this is going to be far more difficult to obtain. I'd love to get Hendriks but relievers are so damn finicky you never know what the hell you are getting. I don't know what the new GM's philosophy will be on relief pitching but I think Eppler had the right idea.

[Angelsjunky]

13 minutes ago, Second Base said:

If the playoffs are a crapshoot, then I want whatever dice the Giants were rolling with.

I'll split the difference. I think what Doc is getting at is that, from an analytics perspective, once you get to the playoffs, you're subject to small sample sizes, hot streaks, and blind luck. But I think, also, there's a limit to analytics. Bumgarner is a good example. The dude just knows how to pitch when it counts most: 3.50 career ERA, 2.11 in the postseason (I'd do ERA+ by year, but can't find the breakdowns for the postseason - it is a lot better, though, even in each of the three years he played in the postseason).

EDIT from above. I was partially wrong about the Giants, as I counted 2016 instead of 2010. In 2010 they were 6th in OPS+, 1st in ERA+. So in one of the three WS championships, they dominated with their pitching, but in the other two they were mediocre.

[Angelsjunky]

3 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I agree you don't need 5 good starters, especially since at least one of them won't be on the roster or moved to the pen. But yes, 3 good starters with one being very good is a simple but accurate way to put it.

We don't have that. Which is why we need a Stroman or Bauer to give us that. Bauer, Bundy, Heaney, Canning? That's....not bad.

The bullpen needs a lock down closer, too. Unfortunately, as I've said previously, this is going to be far more difficult to obtain. I'd love to get Hendriks but relievers are so damn finicky you never know what the hell you are getting. I don't know what the new GM's philosophy will be on relief pitching but I think Eppler had the right idea.

We have several good starters, depending upon how Ohtani, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Barria, and even Sandoval perform. Three of those guys have shown #3 form, and one is close. We don't have a #2. As I said, three of those guys could be a #2 - but probably not. The Angels need a good starter, and preferably a #2. Unfortunately only Bauer is available as a FA that fits that criteria.

But "Bauer or Bust" is not a winning strategy, so the Angels go after a Gausman and Stroman and hope they have a higher gear, and also hope that one of Bundy, Ohtani, or even Canning can perform to their talent level.

[tdawg87]

15 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

We have several good starters, depending upon how Ohtani, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Barria, and even Sandoval perform. Three of those guys have shown #3 form, and one is close. We don't have a #2. As I said, three of those guys could be a #2 - but probably not. The Angels need a good starter, and preferably a #2. Unfortunately only Bauer is available as a FA that fits that criteria.

But "Bauer or Bust" is not a winning strategy, so the Angels go after a Gausman and Stroman and hope they have a higher gear, and also hope that one of Bundy, Ohtani, or even Canning can perform to their talent level.

I don't think I said "Bauer or bust". He's just the best option and only legitimate frontline starter on the market. I'd be fine with Stroman. 

But how many years have we been having this discussion? 8? We have acquired a bunch of "big bats" in that duration, but it's crickets on the pitching end. 

I'm not a "big splash" guy anymore, except when I take a dump. But it would be really nice if we addressed the biggest issue this team has had for several years now.

Not saying big contracts are the way to go here, but I think guys like Bauer and Stroman will be an exception to that. They'll both get paid, especially Bauer. But unless Bauer pulls a complete 180, he's looking for a short term deal. Of course he may tell the Angels to go fuck themselves, in which case his position would be understood.

I just think we have been going the "quantity over quality" route for too long now with the staff. Throw enough shit at the wall, something is bound to stick. I think it's time to stop fucking around. Not my money blah blah blah I don't give a shit about arguing the payroll anymore. Just get better. Fuck.

Edited October 2, 2020 by tdawg87

[tdawg87]

Nothing pisses me off more than autocorrect. And Cals.

[Hubs]

I think adding two starters will be two expensive unless they want to get a 2nd guy who is under arbitration or club control via trade or waivers. 
 

I think they have more than $40 to spend. I see them with a payroll at 118 or so for Trout/ Rendon/ Pujols/ Upton plus the arbitration class headlined by Bundy and Heaney but also including Stassi, and relievers like Andriese, Bedrosian, and Middleton, Mayers and Robles and Ramirez. And of course Ohtani who is going to be paid less than I expected. So the guys they keep will cost maybe $30-32 And you have 6-9 for the other 12-15 guys under club control. 

So you’re at 148-155 and a budget in the 190’s likely. And Pujols comes off next year and while his money likely goes to Bundy and Heaney if they retain them, they won’t get all of it plus what they are earning now. And no more major arbitration cases for a while either other than Ohtani.

so you can sign a 2nd baseman or Shortstop around 7-10 M which prices them out of Simmons and DJ but would be enough for Cesar Hernandez or someone like that. 
 

you can get another catcher for 3-5.

and a few relievers for 10 M total. 

and a SP for 25 or something first year salary 

and be set.

[Angelsjunky]

@tdawg87, I agree in principal, but the Angels have tried to go for quality. The went hard after Cole and Wheeler and were out-bid. They will probably at least inquire about Bauer, but the competition will be fierce. There's a bit gap between him and the rest of the field, with Stroman, Gausman, and maybe one or two others being solid #3 options. I think that is about the best we can expect, other than a trade for someone like Musgrove (which sounds good, but may be wishful thinking).

The point being, if it was as simple as just picking and choosing from all available options, this would be easy - like the $40 million thread I started. But the Angels aren't working in a vacuum; they're potentially competing with 29 other teams for any given player. I think the Rendon deal is proof that Arte and the Angels brass are willing to spend on quality, it is just that they haven't matched with a top starter.

So one of the underlying commonalities is how to address the problem, but from a tactical position of finding ways to field a winning team that don't involve a top of the rotation pitcher. It just might not be possible, and as I think I have adequately pointed out elsewhere, it isn't an absolute requirement to field a really good team.

[Inside Pitch]

20 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

I disagree entirely. Well, I guess I agree that focusing ONLY on pitching is a bad idea. But man, you gotta know how important pitching is. There are exceptions of course, but pitching wins championships. I don't care how cliche that is. It's true.

We have a pretty good offense that could easily improve. We have an OK rotation and an absolute cluster fuck of a bullpen. The new GM will address all the issues, naturally. But pitching HAS to be the priority. All around.

Pitching helps gets you to a the postseason, but it's all who is hottest and who has the best balance/depth when the postseason starts.   The Angels need to really look at what the issue was defensively and fill out the staff.  But at least the rotation seems to have a floor for the first time in a while.

[Inside Pitch]

20 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Pitching is important, obviously, but the "pitching-pitching-pitching" adage is overblown, as Scotty unintentionally pointed out by citing the Giants. My research for the last ten years very clearly supports the view that you merely need a good rotation, not a great one. You need either: 1) A great team, or 2) a very good team that gets hot at the right time. Every team tries to build a great team to increase their chances, and the point is, there are different paths towards that.

Now I do agree that if you are mediocre or worse in any of the key areas--offense, defense, starting pitching, and bullpen--you have to catch lightning in a bottle to win it all. So the idea is, be at least solid in all four areas, and then hopefully be really good in one or two.

Pitching wins championships is the most overblown cliche out there, or rather it's off-base.   A great pitching staff will keep a team in games and cover for other spots   But like you guys have pointed to -- one hot pitcher at the right time can completely flip a postseason on it's head.

IMO the postseason became MUCH more of a crap shoot once the emphasis shifted from the play to the profits.  All those extra days off to allow for best TV viewing has basically made it so the game is played differently once the playoffs start.  The strength of a great pitching staff has been massively diminished.

[Lou]

9 relief pitchers threw a shutout for the Padres last night to advance to the NLDS.  That's just crazy. 

[Inside Pitch]

21 hours ago, Lou said:

9 relief pitchers threw a shutout for the Padres last night to advance to the NLDS.  That's just crazy. 

Then they get 4 days to rest everyone up and line up their pitching because TV money.   This playing the season one way then flipping it all on its head once the postseason starts is beyond lame.

[Blarg]

I don't think that is going to change the Dodgers post season. 

[ukyah]

it'd be cool to be wrong, but i think the dodgers are going to beat the dick off the padres.

[Lou]

11 hours ago, ukyah said:

it'd be cool to be wrong, but i think the dodgers are going to beat the dick off the padres.

If not, they can just, you know .....

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/oct/04/charles-haeger-dodgers-white-sox-pitcher-dead-alleged-murder

[ukyah]

2 minutes ago, Lou said:

If not, they can just, you know .....

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/oct/04/charles-haeger-dodgers-white-sox-pitcher-dead-alleged-murder

jesus, lou.

[Bronson]

1 hour ago, ukyah said:

jesus, lou.

Yeah, that wasn’t funny.

[Tank]

On 9/30/2020 at 9:32 PM, Dochalo said:

I'm pretty sure that at some point, someone will do the research and realize that everything you write is a palindrome.......in iambic pentameter.....in both directions.  

my money's on onomatopoeia.

[Lou]

2 minutes ago, Tank said:

my money's on onomatopoeia.

Thank you, spellcheck!

[Tank]

2 minutes ago, Lou said:

Thank you, spellcheck!

not gonna lie. i had to look it up.

[Lou]

Just now, Tank said:

not gonna lie. i had to look it up.

[TroutCron]

On 10/1/2020 at 1:45 AM, stormngt said:

FA starter, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Barria and Ohtani

Why would Ohtani lose his job again?

I don’t think you can win with a a six man rotation. It is time for Ohtani and the organization to decide if he will be a pitcher or a hitter. If he is going to be a pitcher then he has to adapt to being part of a five man rotation. If he is going to be a hitter then play him in the outfield and DH Upton. Given his injury history I would rather he concentrate on hitting. The Angels don’t have enough depth to absorb injuries to the starting staff. Pitching is a full time job as is playing in the field every day, especially with Ohtani’s funky mechanics on both. A six man rotation limits the number of starts your top starters get. It changes the routine that starting pitchers are used to. After three seasons it is time to stop babying Ohtani and dictate to him how he will be used. 
  I think the best course of action is to make him an everyday position player. He can make the adjustments to be a better hitter than the injury probabilities as a pitcherz 

[eligrba]

7 minutes ago, TroutCron said:

I don’t think you can win with a a six man rotation. It is time for Ohtani and the organization to decide if he will be a pitcher or a hitter. If he is going to be a pitcher then he has to adapt to being part of a five man rotation. If he is going to be a hitter then play him in the outfield and DH Upton. Given his injury history I would rather he concentrate on hitting. The Angels don’t have enough depth to absorb injuries to the starting staff. Pitching is a full time job as is playing in the field every day, especially with Ohtani’s funky mechanics on both. A six man rotation limits the number of starts your top starters get. It changes the routine that starting pitchers are used to. After three seasons it is time to stop babying Ohtani and dictate to him how he will be used. 
  I think the best course of action is to make him an everyday position player. He can make the adjustments to be a better hitter than the injury probabilities as a pitcherz 

The Angels had a six man rotation every time Tehran pitched. The problem was all six pitchers pitched in the same game.

[Junkballer]

52 minutes ago, TroutCron said:

I don’t think you can win with a a six man rotation. It is time for Ohtani and the organization to decide if he will be a pitcher or a hitter. If he is going to be a pitcher then he has to adapt to being part of a five man rotation. If he is going to be a hitter then play him in the outfield and DH Upton. Given his injury history I would rather he concentrate on hitting. The Angels don’t have enough depth to absorb injuries to the starting staff. Pitching is a full time job as is playing in the field every day, especially with Ohtani’s funky mechanics on both. A six man rotation limits the number of starts your top starters get. It changes the routine that starting pitchers are used to. After three seasons it is time to stop babying Ohtani and dictate to him how he will be used. 
  I think the best course of action is to make him an everyday position player. He can make the adjustments to be a better hitter than the injury probabilities as a pitcherz 

Undoubtedly the Angels are considering this at some point, however,

1) they'd be fools to not evaluate his arm and command during a normal spring considering the possibility of him regaining his 2018 form.  He carries the potential of being a near-dominant top of the rotation arm until he turns FA in '24.  

2) 2020's start/restart spring training was a mess and he was coming off Tommy John.  Hard to close off such inexpensive potential based on his shaky post-TJ starts in a chaotic season.

3) There were no doubt some assurances given in the wooing process to get him to sign here in the first place.  Not that that should be written in stone forever, but, he did undergo TJ assumedly upon their advice and there are some implications for steering a player towards surgical procedures.  It seems reasonable to let him try to bounce back.

There's probably some valid concerns to a six-man rotation, however, injuries will happen at some point.  Creativity can still get the #1 & #2 almost a full slate of starts (see Angelsjunky's six man rotation thread).  Contrary to your comment that they don't have enough starting depth to risk Ohtani pitching and getting injured, I think its the opposite; even with a new FA starter, they will be greatly bolstered by Ohtani, even if he doesn't fully regain his 2018 form.

 

[Angelsjunky]

5 hours ago, TroutCron said:

I don’t think you can win with a a six man rotation. It is time for Ohtani and the organization to decide if he will be a pitcher or a hitter. If he is going to be a pitcher then he has to adapt to being part of a five man rotation. If he is going to be a hitter then play him in the outfield and DH Upton. Given his injury history I would rather he concentrate on hitting. The Angels don’t have enough depth to absorb injuries to the starting staff. Pitching is a full time job as is playing in the field every day, especially with Ohtani’s funky mechanics on both. A six man rotation limits the number of starts your top starters get. It changes the routine that starting pitchers are used to. After three seasons it is time to stop babying Ohtani and dictate to him how he will be used. 
  I think the best course of action is to make him an everyday position player. He can make the adjustments to be a better hitter than the injury probabilities as a pitcherz 

This simply isn't true--or doesn't have to be true--as I pointed out in one of these countless threads. You can skip your worst starter, and you can give guys rest when they need it. Ohtani starts every Sunday, and the other five guys rotate around that, with the Angels dropping the 5th guy or resting someone else every two or three weeks. Maybe the top starters start 31-32 games, and not 33-34...but that's not a huge lessening. In 2019 only 7 guys started 34 games, and only 20 started 33+. Canning probably isn't ready to start 30+ games, and someone invariably will get hurt. By season's end you might have something like Bundy 32, New Pitcher 32, Heaney 30, Canning 26, Barria 22, Ohtani 20, and then subtract 20+ starts from those six due to injury and give them to Sandoval, Andriese, Suarez, Detmers, etc.

That said, I think Ohtani gets one more chance at being a two-way player. I think it will be either two-way or hitter only. If he gets hurt again or doesn't perform, the Angels may pull the plug on pitching. But they're going to give him another shot.

Edited October 8, 2020 by Angelsjunky

[arch stanton]

It would be monumentally stupid not to give someone with an arm like Ohtani every chance to succeed as a pitcher

Edited October 8, 2020 by arch stanton