Would you rather overpay in trade assets or in free agent money/term for a frontline starter?

[mmc]

I think it’s become apparent that unless we develop one ourselves, which isn’t likely considering who we have in the system, we’re going to be forced to offer more than most of us, and the front office are comfortable with, in either a trade, or by signing a free agent.  Which overpay would you rather make?

[Tank]

I’m confused. This post is missing a tweet and I find myself not really knowing how to respond.

[DMVol]

The line between FA money and prospects got blurrier for me when we gave up our most recent 1st round draft pick to shed a bad contract....

[Second Base]

Depends on who it is. Clevinger has a few years of team control and can almost guarantee you 180 innings or more. So for him, yeah I'd overpay, at least in terms of quantity, meaning not Canning, Adell or Marsh.

[tchula]

I would easily rather overpay than give up the prospects (granted it is not my money).    But, long term sustainability through any program comes from the farm. And money will not negate a bad farm, but very good farm can negate dead money.  

[Lou]

10 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Depends on who it is. Clevinger has a few years of team control and can almost guarantee you 180 innings or more. 

He's pitched more than 126 innings once in his career. 

[Second Base]

1 minute ago, Lou said:

He's pitched more than 126 innings once in his career. 

True, but he's had no elbow or shoulder issues and went 200 innings in 2018. But you're right. I think I need to clarify 180 innings, as long as he's healthy.

[Lou]

13 minutes ago, Second Base said:

True, but he's had no elbow or shoulder issues and went 200 innings in 2018. But you're right. I think I need to clarify 180 innings, as long as he's healthy.

I get what you're saying, but you could say that about any pitcher. 

[mmc]

9 minutes ago, Lou said:

U get what you're saying, but you could say that about any pitcher. 

Well said

[Second Base]

24 minutes ago, Lou said:

I get what you're saying, but you could say that about any pitcher. 

Except Teheran and Bundy. Even if they're healthy, 180 innings would be their ceiling. Heaney, Canning and Ohtani too. 

Edited January 20, 2020 by Second Base

[Lou]

1 minute ago, Second Base said:

Except Teheran and Bundy. Even if they're healthy, 180 innings would be their ceiling. Heaney, Canning and Ohtani too. 

So all of them. 

[Second Base]

Just now, Lou said:

So all of them. 

Yup, which is why something more than 180 innings would be particularly nice.

[tdawg87]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

Depends on who it is. Clevinger has a few years of team control and can almost guarantee you 180 innings or more. So for him, yeah I'd overpay, at least in terms of quantity, meaning not Canning, Adell or Marsh.

So you won't overpay. Got it.

[Stradling]

3 hours ago, mymerlincat said:

I think it’s become apparent that unless we develop one ourselves, which isn’t likely considering who we have in the system, we’re going to be forced to offer more than most of us, and the front office are comfortable with, in either a trade, or by signing a free agent.  Which overpay would you rather make?

Money

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, tdawg87 said:

So you won't overpay. Got it.

Right.  

[tdawg87]

It would be fucking awesome if Cleveland was like "Yo guys we kinda owe you one" and gave us Clevinger for Thaiss, Rengifo, Ward, Suarez, and Jones.

[Stradling]

33 pitchers pitched over 180 innings last year.  So one a team.  That number will go down going forward.  

[tdawg87]

3 minutes ago, Stradling said:

33 pitchers pitched over 180 innings last year.  So one a team.  That number will go down going forward.  

Actually it's 1.1 per team. This is Hofstra level math, Strad.

[Inside Pitch]

3 hours ago, mymerlincat said:

I think it’s become apparent that unless we develop one ourselves, which isn’t likely considering who we have in the system, we’re going to be forced to offer more than most of us, and the front office are comfortable with, in either a trade, or by signing a free agent.  Which overpay would you rather make?

I'd sooner throw money than prospects, the Angels have more of that than they do prospects, and the prospects can help offset the money.  Also, my definition of front line pitching doesn't include guys like Keuchel, Bumgarner, types.  

[Stradling]

6 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I'd sooner throw money than prospects, the Angels have more of that than they do prospects, and the prospects can help offset the money.  Also, my definition of front line pitching doesn't include guys like Keuchel, Bumgarner, types.  

Right there were two bonafide front line starters on the free agent market.  One stayed on the team he just won a World Series on and the other went to the Yankees.  We can squint and see that maybe, possibly, Wheeler is a front line starter, but the results say otherwise.  

[tdawg87]

8 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Right there were two bonafide front line starters on the free agent market.  One stayed on the team he just won a World Series on and the other went to the Yankees.  We can squint and see that maybe, possibly, Wheeler is a front line starter, but the results say otherwise.  

Well, gotbeer can.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

So you won't overpay. Got it.

As I said, overpay in quantity over quality. Like Jordyn Adams, Luis Rengifo, Trent Deveaux, Patrick Sandoval, Hector Yan, and Aaron Hernandez. 

Six prospects is a haul and can change the entire direction of a system. Realistically, from that crop of six, you're getting a starting outfielder, starting infielder, back end starting pitcher, pinch running 4th outfielder and a couple of hard throwing relievers. 

Not a single one will likely be better than Clevinger, who figures to be worth 5 wins above replacement annually, but collectively, that return should be worth around 7-8 wins annually. 

Edited January 20, 2020 by Second Base

[failos]

Very original question

[Lou]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

Well, gotbeer can.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

3 hours ago, Second Base said:

Depends on who it is. Clevinger has a few years of team control and can almost guarantee you 180 innings or more. So for him, yeah I'd overpay, at least in terms of quantity, meaning not Canning, Adell or Marsh.

If we could get Clevenger say goodbye to Marsh and even Jackson.