If and I mean a big IF. Strasburg and Cole edition.

[angelsnationtalk]

If the Angels can pull another year where Arte just says F*** it and goes all in....
Current Angels' payroll sits at around $150.4M.
If Arte has a screw it moment and invests heavily into pitching while back loading contracts then he could, in theory, afford both Cole and Strasburg.

Let's say that he gets Cole and Strasburg and is able to have their first year at around $28 and Strasburg at around $25M. That would total payroll to around $203.4M. Obviously, that would be WAY more than he's ever spent, but it'd still be less on the AAV side and given he seems like he's in win now mode I wonder if this makes sense. Adding both of those players combined with Ohtani, Canning, Heaney and Bundy will easily make the best rotation in baseball. 

With $27.67 coming off the books in 2021, $30M in 2022 and $28M in 2023, this might finally be what Arte needs to go in "win now" mode and push the team over the edge. 
If we add the WAR numbers by what the rotation could look like it would add roughly 20 WAR. 
I know it's a pipe dream, but i'm hoping Arte just goes all in on the pitching side. 

All of our top prospects (Adell, Marsh, Rengifo, Thaiss, Jackson) replace the money coming off the books within the next few years. Now is the time for Arte to invest his money into the rotation. 

[Pancake Bear]

Right now, I’d be happy just getting one (preferably Cole).

If we got both, after the initial freak out, I’d probably be concerned about long term effects on the payroll and how Stras will hold up over the course of the contract (Cole, too, although to a lesser degree).

Plus, with multiple teams in on both, I just don’t see Arte having the desperation to do whatever it takes to sign both. 

[angelsnationtalk]

2 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

Right now, I’d be happy just getting one (preferably Cole).

If we got both, after the initial freak out, I’d probably be concerned about long term effects on the payroll and how Stras will hold up over the course of the contract (Cole, too, although to a lesser degree).

Plus, with multiple teams in on both, I just don’t see Arte having the desperation to do whatever it takes to sign both. 

I don't believe that many reports when I see them, specially with Cole not preferring only west coast. Let's say the Angels and Cole know they are going to be together. That basically leaves us only to go heavily after one guy and that's Strasburg. Yes, his injury history is concerning, but there is about $85.67M coming off between 2021-2023. The MLB luxury tax will also keep going up i'm sure. If it's a "win-now" idea, then go for it. Give them opt-outs. If Arte is serious about winning then Cole alone can't do it at all. I think we can both agree on that.

[Warfarin]

All of this "if we sign Cole and Strasburg" talk.. I mean, yeah, it's fun to dream, but I think there's no chance of that.  Cole and Ryu, IMO, is probably the best we'd see/get, and in truth, that'd lead to a top 5 rotation (Cole, Ryu, Ohtani, Heaney, Bundy, Canning).  We need to use some money for a catcher, at the very least.

[Pancake Bear]

1 minute ago, Warfarin said:

All of this "if we sign Cole and Strasburg" talk.. I mean, yeah, it's fun to dream, but I think there's no chance of that.  Cole and Ryu, IMO, is probably the best we'd see/get, and in truth, that'd lead to a top 5 rotation (Cole, Ryu, Ohtani, Heaney, Bundy, Canning).  We need to use some money for a catcher, at the very least.

Or trade for an arbitration guy from the Padres or something. 

[Docwaukee]

Pass on Stras.  

[failos]

Jinx edition

[red321]

I would seriously doubt the Angels sign both Strasburg and Cole...I'm with Doc...not sure Strasburg should even be a consideration at this point. All pitchers come with risks, his risk factor is probably higher than most others based on his injury history and for that money and where the Angels need...they can't afford to take a huge swing and miss.

The Angels need to be 6 deep rotation wise. Ohtani is a wild card, even at best you are looking at him for 20-25 starts and that's if he comes back fully healthy from his surgery. 6 solid starters let you absorb giving him more rest between starts or worse case, go back to a 5 man rotation for stretches. Let's also keep in mind Heaney hasn't been the most durable either (one season with 30 starts). Someone like Ryu paired with Cole would be a fantastic 1-2 and then you have 4 guys behind to mix and match and guys like Barria, Suarez, and Sandoval who can ride the Salt Lake shuttle.

[Warfarin]

33 minutes ago, red321 said:

I would seriously doubt the Angels sign both Strasburg and Cole...I'm with Doc...not sure Strasburg should even be a consideration at this point. All pitchers come with risks, his risk factor is probably higher than most others based on his injury history and for that money and where the Angels need...they can't afford to take a huge swing and miss.

The Angels need to be 6 deep rotation wise. Ohtani is a wild card, even at best you are looking at him for 20-25 starts and that's if he comes back fully healthy from his surgery. 6 solid starters let you absorb giving him more rest between starts or worse case, go back to a 5 man rotation for stretches. Let's also keep in mind Heaney hasn't been the most durable either (one season with 30 starts). Someone like Ryu paired with Cole would be a fantastic 1-2 and then you have 4 guys behind to mix and match and guys like Barria, Suarez, and Sandoval who can ride the Salt Lake shuttle.

I think Stras is on the radar ONLY if Cole picks another team.  I think we intend to sign an ace of some kind, and if Cole goes elsewhere, Strasburg becomes priority #1.  I do not think, though, that we will sign both.  That sounds like pure fantasy, IMO.

[kevinb]

Honestly I would probably rather have Madison or Ryu than Strasburg but yes definitely Cole. Can we add a bat somewhere in the line up as well. I feel like we aren't going to have enough offense next year. 

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

All of this "if we sign Cole and Strasburg" talk.. I mean, yeah, it's fun to dream, but I think there's no chance of that.  Cole and Ryu, IMO, is probably the best we'd see/get, and in truth, that'd lead to a top 5 rotation (Cole, Ryu, Ohtani, Heaney, Bundy, Canning).  We need to use some money for a catcher, at the very least.

Wrong. There's a 0.4742% chance of it happening. Stop lying, Warfarin.

[Warfarin]

Just now, Angelsjunky said:

Wrong. There's a 0.4742% chance of it happening. Stop lying, Warfarin.

You got me

[Claude]

So Bundy, Teheran and Castro. Waiting for the smell of the fresh cut grass. 

[Stradling]

But then you’d be wrong.  Talk about scruples.  

[Claude]

11 minutes ago, Stradling said:

But then you’d be wrong.  Talk about scruples.  

Sarcasm Strad. It’s all going to work out. 

[wopphil]

55 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

Honestly I would probably rather have Madison or Ryu than Strasburg but yes definitely Cole. Can we add a bat somewhere in the line up as well. I feel like we aren't going to have enough offense next year. 

I think I feel the same way, so long as we got Cole. Cole/Ryu/Bundy would be an incredible offseason, though I dont think it's even close to realistic. 

[Jason]

I sense that Angel fans are getting a little anxious not having signed Cole yet

[ScottT]

I think it'd be fun, and I wouldn't have any concerns about it.  

[ettin]

You can follow the teams approximate finances here throughout the off-season (or alternatively Jeff Fletcher has a spreadsheet not dissimilar from this one in terms of the numbers online): 

For those of you out there asking the question about how much Arte should spend I would like to share the projected outlook on Actual Club Payroll (Average Annual Value) for the next few seasons based on the current 40-man roster (which includes Bundy):

Specifically I highlighted 2022 and 2026 for a reason (note this does not include Benefits, etc.).

The idea that Arte could spend more is actually supported by this data. If, hypothetically, Moreno and Eppler splurged on Cole (~$33M AAV) and Rendon (~$35M AAV), that would be an additional ~$68M each year over, probably, the next 7 years.

That would mean that 2020 Actual Club Payroll would, with Benefits, shoot up to about $225M, right below the 1st Surcharge Threshold at $228M. The following year it would pop up a touch to about $232M.

However, in 2022, once Pujols' contract drops off the books, it would drop back down to about $211M, which should be right below or at the CBT threshold for that season (once the new Collective Bargaining Agreement has been signed and those new thresholds are set). It would be very easy to drop a reliever or two off the books to slide under the CBT threshold and reset the Luxury Tax rate and become a "non-offender" again.

Then for 2023 and 2024 you could rinse and repeat going over the CBT threshold again (Ohtani extension) and then slide out from under it in 2025.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

Now will Moreno authorize this? I actually think it is a possibility but the key players have to agree to terms and that is the other difficult part of this equation. More specifically I think Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon are the targets in this hypothetical scenario but signing even one superstar is difficult much less two, so it is a long shot but doable from a long-term budget perspective if Arte is willing to go that distance.

I speak more about it in the rest of the Primer Series.

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 hours ago, Jason said:

I sense that Angel fans are getting a little anxious not having signed Cole yet

Were just waiting for january 1 for tax purposes.

[Hubs]

Cots baseball contracts has a very accurate spreadsheet for all 30 teams 

[failos]

6 hours ago, Calzone 2 said:

Sarcasm Strad. It’s all going to work out. 

You and @Stradling are cartoon characters.

[Stradling]

15 minutes ago, failos said:

You and @Stradling are cartoon characters.

Thank you ACFresh21

[failos]

3 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Thank you ACFresh21

always my dude

[Halodays]

On 12/6/2019 at 10:11 AM, angelsnationtalk said:

If the Angels can pull another year where Arte just says F*** it and goes all in....
Current Angels' payroll sits at around $150.4M.
If Arte has a screw it moment and invests heavily into pitching while back loading contracts then he could, in theory, afford both Cole and Strasburg.

Let's say that he gets Cole and Strasburg and is able to have their first year at around $28 and Strasburg at around $25M. That would total payroll to around $203.4M. Obviously, that would be WAY more than he's ever spent, but it'd still be less on the AAV side and given he seems like he's in win now mode I wonder if this makes sense. Adding both of those players combined with Ohtani, Canning, Heaney and Bundy will easily make the best rotation in baseball. 

With $27.67 coming off the books in 2021, $30M in 2022 and $28M in 2023, this might finally be what Arte needs to go in "win now" mode and push the team over the edge. 
If we add the WAR numbers by what the rotation could look like it would add roughly 20 WAR. 
I know it's a pipe dream, but i'm hoping Arte just goes all in on the pitching side. 

All of our top prospects (Adell, Marsh, Rengifo, Thaiss, Jackson) replace the money coming off the books within the next few years. Now is the time for Arte to invest his money into the rotation. 

If they were to go all in and sign Cole and Stras then the Angels would probably look for ways to start cutting payroll to get as close or under the luxury tax threshold without hurting the team too much. Trading Heaney and Bedrosian and their projected  combined $8 million salary would be a start.