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I got to ask Jason Martinez a question about Angels


Erstad Grit

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I asked what would it cost to acquire Greinke and Ray and would Angels pay that price.

He said it wouldn't cost much in terms of prospects. Dbacks would likely gladly include Ray if the team took on Greinke's entire contract.

He thought Angels are reluctant to spend that kind of money would not. 

That's discouraging if true. 

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4 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

I asked what would it cost to acquire Greinke and Ray and would Angels pay that price.

He said it wouldn't cost much in terms of prospects. Dbacks would likely gladly include Ray if the team took on Greinke's entire contract.

He thought Angels are reluctant to spend that kind of money would not. 

That's discouraging if true. 

Remember that Greinke's got 10-11M deferred each year of his deal so that actually works out. The Angels have room under the salary cap but not with Cash. They'd be spending $21M each year cash on Greinke, for three years, as his salary is 31.5 (with 10.5 deferred) and then 32 and 32 (with 11M deferred each year). The deferred money counts against the cap in the current year, but they'd be responsible for the cash sometime in 22-26.

His deferment is slightly odd in that it takes 62.5 M out of the six years, but then pays it back over five. So the better outcome for each team is to split the cash deferment so the D'Backs would be responsible for $6M over the 5 years, and the Angels $6.5.

 

 

 

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In another thread, I thought Zack Grienke, Robbie Ray, Jake Lamb and 15 million would net the D-Backs Kole Calhoun, Brandon Marsh, Jose Suarez, Jahmai Jones, Trent Deveaux and Jose Soriano.  

The reason being, in 2019, the D-Backs in this case would be responsible for 18 million of Greinke's salary, plus 10 million from Calhoun, who they would hope to flip at the deadline, plus they lose Jake Lamb at 3B who has shown flashes of brilliance before and is still relatively young.  Plus losing Robbie Ray would create a giant hole in their rotation.  It simply wouldn't be a good deal for them in 2019.  But come 2020, they'd be off the hook financially for both Grienke and Calhoun, they'd have filled the hole in the rotation with Suarez, and they'd have a collection of prospects in Marsh, Jones, Deveaux and Soriano, all of which come with upside. 

So in different sections, it would basically be the Angels getting Zack Greinke at 3/70, and then trading Marsh, and Jones for three years of Robbie Ray, and Jose Suarez, Jose Soriano and Trent Deveaux for three years of Jake Lamb. 

It would be a big complicated deal, and it would be a risky one for the Angels.  After all, a trade like that would strip about 1/3 of their good prospects away, and it would take a couple years just to get back to that level.  But the benefit of it would be immense.  Robbie Ray and Zack Grienke can both pitch toward the front of the rotation, and when Ohtani gets back and Canning develops, the Angels will be downright dangerous, plus Jake Lamb has shown before that he can be a good defensive third baseman that hits left handed, mashes 30 HR a year and gets on base.  He hasn't done it consistently yet, but he's entering his physical prime, so it seems that could be something on the horizon. 

And for the D-Backs, it alleviates them from their current financial burden and infuses the system with much needed talent. 

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5 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Remember that Greinke's got 10-11M deferred each year of his deal so that actually works out. The Angels have room under the salary cap but not with Cash. They'd be spending $21M each year cash on Greinke, for three years, as his salary is 31.5 (with 10.5 deferred) and then 32 and 32 (with 11M deferred each year). The deferred money counts against the cap in the current year, but they'd be responsible for the cash sometime in 22-26.

His deferment is slightly odd in that it takes 62.5 M out of the six years, but then pays it back over five. So the better outcome for each team is to split the cash deferment so the D'Backs would be responsible for $6M over the 5 years, and the Angels $6.5.

 

 

 

I read that those deferments are legally the property and responsibility of the D- Backs.  They'll play those deferments regardless.

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8 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I read that those deferments are legally the property and responsibility of the D- Backs.  They'll play those deferments regardless.

I think they'd be the responsible party for the deferment for the three years he pitched for them, whereas the the three years the Angels have him, they'd be the responsible ones.

That drops him from $31.5 in salary to 21M, which is totally affordable on a cash basis, though the AAV salary would be $34.416. And that's with the Angels taking the entire contract.

The 18M signing bonus is listed as being paid $3M per year, but I think the D'Backs have to pay that for the last three years. No team is going to take on signing bonus payments.

I'd propose they negotiate that the D'backs pay this $9M and the Angels take the rest. That's 95.5M in actual dollars, 21M in Cash salary in 2019-2020-2021, then 6.5M in 22-23-24-25-26.

If the D'Backs want a better prospect or two then Thaiss and lower tier arms, for him and Ray, then they have to eat 3-4M in each year of the deferred salary plus the trade assignment bonus.

Zack Greinke rhp
6 years/$206.5M (2016-21)

  • 6 years/$206.5M (2016-21)
    • signed by Arizona as a free agent 12/9/15
    • $18M signing bonus (paid in $3M installments each 5/31, 2016-21)
    • 16:$31M, 17:$31M, 18:$31M, 19:$31.5M, 20:$32M, 21:$32M
    • total of $62.5M in salary is deferred ($10M each in 2016-18, $10.5M in 2019, $11M each in 2020-21), to be paid in five installments of $12.5M each 11/1, 2022-26
    • under MLB calculation, deferrals reduce the present-day value of the contract to $193,849,298
    • assignment bonus: $2M if traded
    • limited no-trade protection: may block trades to 15 clubs (Baltimore, Boston, Cincinnati, Colorado, Detroit, LA Angels, LA Dodgers, Minnesota, NY Yankees, Oakland, Philadelphia, San Diego, San Francisco, St. Louis, Toronto as of 11/18)
    • perks: four premium season tickets (two paid for by Greinke), hotel suite on road trips
    • at signing, highest average annual value in MLB history

 

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8 minutes ago, Second Base said:

In another thread, I thought Zack Grienke, Robbie Ray, Jake Lamb and 15 million would net the D-Backs Kole Calhoun, Brandon Marsh, Jose Suarez, Jahmai Jones, Trent Deveaux and Jose Soriano.  

The reason being, in 2019, the D-Backs in this case would be responsible for 18 million of Greinke's salary, plus 10 million from Calhoun, who they would hope to flip at the deadline, plus they lose Jake Lamb at 3B who has shown flashes of brilliance before and is still relatively young.  Plus losing Robbie Ray would create a giant hole in their rotation.  It simply wouldn't be a good deal for them in 2019.  But come 2020, they'd be off the hook financially for both Grienke and Calhoun, they'd have filled the hole in the rotation with Suarez, and they'd have a collection of prospects in Marsh, Jones, Deveaux and Soriano, all of which come with upside. 

So in different sections, it would basically be the Angels getting Zack Greinke at 3/70, and then trading Marsh, and Jones for three years of Robbie Ray, and Jose Suarez, Jose Soriano and Trent Deveaux for three years of Jake Lamb

It would be a big complicated deal, and it would be a risky one for the Angels.  After all, a trade like that would strip about 1/3 of their good prospects away, and it would take a couple years just to get back to that level.  But the benefit of it would be immense.  Robbie Ray and Zack Grienke can both pitch toward the front of the rotation, and when Ohtani gets back and Canning develops, the Angels will be downright dangerous, plus Jake Lamb has shown before that he can be a good defensive third baseman that hits left handed, mashes 30 HR a year and gets on base.  He hasn't done it consistently yet, but he's entering his physical prime, so it seems that could be something on the horizon. 

And for the D-Backs, it alleviates them from their current financial burden and infuses the system with much needed talent. 

FYI, both Lamb and Ray have only two years of arbitration control each.

Greinke, not taking deferments into account, has about $50M in negative "surplus" value. Both Lamb and Ray have about $30M in surplus value. Calhoun has about $15M in surplus value, Marsh about $25M-30M, Suarez about $30M-35M, Jones about $40M, Deveaux about $10M and Soriano about $15M, give or take. Think that would be an overall foolish trade when you include Greinke.

I am just a hard pass on Greinke, he is at an age where next season could easily be the one where he starts crapping the bed. Too much risk and too much money in my opinion. Could be wrong but I don't see it.

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23 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I think they'd be the responsible party for the deferment for the three years he pitched for them, whereas the the three years the Angels have him, they'd be the responsible ones.

That drops him from $31.5 in salary to 21M, which is totally affordable on a cash basis, though the AAV salary would be $34.416. And that's with the Angels taking the entire contract.

The 18M signing bonus is listed as being paid $3M per year, but I think the D'Backs have to pay that for the last three years. No team is going to take on signing bonus payments.

I'd propose they negotiate that the D'backs pay this $9M and the Angels take the rest. That's 95.5M in actual dollars, 21M in Cash salary in 2019-2020-2021, then 6.5M in 22-23-24-25-26.

If the D'Backs want a better prospect or two then Thaiss and lower tier arms, for him and Ray, then they have to eat 3-4M in each year of the deferred salary plus the trade assignment bonus.

Zack Greinke rhp
6 years/$206.5M (2016-21)

  • 6 years/$206.5M (2016-21)
    • signed by Arizona as a free agent 12/9/15
    • $18M signing bonus (paid in $3M installments each 5/31, 2016-21)
    • 16:$31M, 17:$31M, 18:$31M, 19:$31.5M, 20:$32M, 21:$32M
    • total of $62.5M in salary is deferred ($10M each in 2016-18, $10.5M in 2019, $11M each in 2020-21), to be paid in five installments of $12.5M each 11/1, 2022-26
    • under MLB calculation, deferrals reduce the present-day value of the contract to $193,849,298
    • assignment bonus: $2M if traded
    • limited no-trade protection: may block trades to 15 clubs (Baltimore, Boston, Cincinnati, Colorado, Detroit, LA Angels, LA Dodgers, Minnesota, NY Yankees, Oakland, Philadelphia, San Diego, San Francisco, St. Louis, Toronto as of 11/18)
    • perks: four premium season tickets (two paid for by Greinke), hotel suite on road trips
    • at signing, highest average annual value in MLB history

 

image.png

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22 minutes ago, ettin said:

FYI, both Lamb and Ray have only two years of arbitration control each.

Greinke, not taking deferments into account, has about $50M in negative "surplus" value. Both Lamb and Ray have about $30M in surplus value. Calhoun has about $15M in surplus value, Marsh about $25M-30M, Suarez about $30M-35M, Jones about $40M, Deveaux about $10M and Soriano about $15M, give or take. Think that would be an overall foolish trade when you include Greinke.

I am just a hard pass on Greinke, he is at an age where next season could easily be the one where he starts crapping the bed. Too much risk and too much money in my opinion. Could be wrong but I don't see it.

I don't blame you at all.  That's the consensus. 

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3 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

image.png

That's from BR, which includes the $3M signing bonus. It also doesn't show the deferments.

So, the numbers are the same $31.5+3 = 34.5, $32+3 = $35.

I'm confused on what your point is.

 

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57 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

I asked what would it cost to acquire Greinke and Ray and would Angels pay that price.

He said it wouldn't cost much in terms of prospects. Dbacks would likely gladly include Ray if the team took on Greinke's entire contract.

He thought Angels are reluctant to spend that kind of money would not. 

That's discouraging if true. 

I find it more encouraging.  This is not a smart move for a franchise interested in long term success.

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41 minutes ago, ettin said:

FYI, both Lamb and Ray have only two years of arbitration control each.

Greinke, not taking deferments into account, has about $50M in negative "surplus" value. Both Lamb and Ray have about $30M in surplus value. Calhoun has about $15M in surplus value, Marsh about $25M-30M, Suarez about $30M-35M, Jones about $40M, Deveaux about $10M and Soriano about $15M, give or take. Think that would be an overall foolish trade when you include Greinke.

I am just a hard pass on Greinke, he is at an age where next season could easily be the one where he starts crapping the bed. Too much risk and too much money in my opinion. Could be wrong but I don't see it.

I agree this package is a shockingly high, but I don't agree on his negative surplus value. Greinke is going to at least give you 4.0 WAR seasons, it's what he did last year, and 6.0 the year before that, and yes his 2016 was disappointing at 2.5, but his 2015 was a 9 WAR season.

Let's just say that Greinke, not taking deferments into account gives you 12 WAR at 9.5M per WAR = $114M in value for a 104.5 M +2M contract. It's not a huge amount of positive surplus, but even if he say did 4/3/2 WAR and finished with 9WAR in the next three years, he'd end up being at like 85.5 M in value, for that 104.5M +2M contract. (-20 value).

You're ignoring the deferments on a cash savings basis, which makes sense, I suppose, but then the proposed trade also included $15M in Cash, to get him down to about a 90M expense, it did include $60M in surplus value for Ray and Lamb, as well for taking that, so the trade back should include Calhoun and his 10M contract, which I think is closer to 10M in surplus value, so you're now trying to account for what, 55M in value?

Which can be done by trading them Matt Thaiss or J Jones at $40M value, Deveax at $10M, and Soriano at $15M values. I think the trade actually would make sense, and even if you think Greinke is going to become a 2 WAR pitcher for the next 3 seasons, and thus has closer to a negative $30 WAR value surplus, after the cash, the deferment makes it so that you are outlaying the appropriate cash for those three seasons, and you'd get the other two.

And if he continues to pitch 200 IP and at a 3.5 ERA for three years, 4-5 WAR seasons, including Marsh instead of Deveaux is closer to even value.

Yes I don't think they should swap Jones, Marsh, Suarez and a few lower tier prospects for the privilege of taking on $100M in salary, but one of those first three guys or Thaiss makes some sense.

 

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55 minutes ago, Second Base said:

In another thread, I thought Zack Grienke, Robbie Ray, Jake Lamb and 15 million would net the D-Backs Kole Calhoun, Brandon Marsh, Jose Suarez, Jahmai Jones, Trent Deveaux and Jose Soriano.  

The reason being, in 2019, the D-Backs in this case would be responsible for 18 million of Greinke's salary, plus 10 million from Calhoun, who they would hope to flip at the deadline, plus they lose Jake Lamb at 3B who has shown flashes of brilliance before and is still relatively young.  Plus losing Robbie Ray would create a giant hole in their rotation.  It simply wouldn't be a good deal for them in 2019.  But come 2020, they'd be off the hook financially for both Grienke and Calhoun, they'd have filled the hole in the rotation with Suarez, and they'd have a collection of prospects in Marsh, Jones, Deveaux and Soriano, all of which come with upside. 

So in different sections, it would basically be the Angels getting Zack Greinke at 3/70, and then trading Marsh, and Jones for three years of Robbie Ray, and Jose Suarez, Jose Soriano and Trent Deveaux for three years of Jake Lamb. 

It would be a big complicated deal, and it would be a risky one for the Angels.  After all, a trade like that would strip about 1/3 of their good prospects away, and it would take a couple years just to get back to that level.  But the benefit of it would be immense.  Robbie Ray and Zack Grienke can both pitch toward the front of the rotation, and when Ohtani gets back and Canning develops, the Angels will be downright dangerous, plus Jake Lamb has shown before that he can be a good defensive third baseman that hits left handed, mashes 30 HR a year and gets on base.  He hasn't done it consistently yet, but he's entering his physical prime, so it seems that could be something on the horizon. 

And for the D-Backs, it alleviates them from their current financial burden and infuses the system with much needed talent. 

No way do I give up that package unless they pick up just about all of Greinke’s money and even then I probably wouldn’t trade that package for a 35 year old pitcher.  Hell would you even give up that package for either Syndergaard or DeGrom?  

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Greinke can be had that's for sure. Get the D'backs to pick up all the deferred money and the signing / trade bonus and you're on the hook for $21M per season for three seasons.

He'll be worth that.

And I'd send them Matt Thaiss and Jose Suarez for that.

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Mike Ferrin from MLB network covers the dback games (as their broadcaster) and he's actually a big dback guy who knows a lot about their system.

He basically said that the dbacks likely aren't going to trade Greinke as they feel he's still worth a decent return even with his high salary and they are not looking to do a salary dump.  He also indicated that the dbacks are not looking to do a full rebuild and that to trade Ray, they would need to be overwhelmed by a package.  

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4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Mike Ferrin from MLB network covers the dback games (as their broadcaster) and he's actually a big dback guy who knows a lot about their system.

He basically said that the dbacks likely aren't going to trade Greinke as they feel he's still worth a decent return even with his high salary and they are not looking to do a salary dump.  He also indicated that the dbacks are not looking to do a full rebuild and that to trade Ray, they would need to be overwhelmed by a package.  

Where have I heard this before? ?

22 hours ago, True Grich said:

Listening to Mike Ferrin on mlb network radio this morning - he doesn't think Greinke will be traded.  Ferrin does their radio play by play...

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