I got to ask Jason Martinez a question about Angels

[Tank]

50 minutes ago, Sully151 said:

His no trade clause says he can block a trade to the Angels. Maybe he didn’t like it here. 

with sosh gone, maybe that might change for him.

or not.

[T.G.]

That's okay, he's on our "no want" list.

[Second Base]

42 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I agree this package is a shockingly high, but I don't agree on his negative surplus value. Greinke is going to at least give you 4.0 WAR seasons, it's what he did last year, and 6.0 the year before that, and yes his 2016 was disappointing at 2.5, but his 2015 was a 9 WAR season.

Let's just say that Greinke, not taking deferments into account gives you 12 WAR at 9.5M per WAR = $114M in value for a 104.5 M +2M contract. It's not a huge amount of positive surplus, but even if he say did 4/3/2 WAR and finished with 9WAR in the next three years, he'd end up being at like 85.5 M in value, for that 104.5M +2M contract. (-20 value).

You're ignoring the deferments on a cash savings basis, which makes sense, I suppose, but then the proposed trade also included $15M in Cash, to get him down to about a 90M expense, it did include $60M in surplus value for Ray and Lamb, as well for taking that, so the trade back should include Calhoun and his 10M contract, which I think is closer to 10M in surplus value, so you're now trying to account for what, 55M in value?

Which can be done by trading them Matt Thaiss or J Jones at $40M value, Deveax at $10M, and Soriano at $15M values. I think the trade actually would make sense, and even if you think Greinke is going to become a 2 WAR pitcher for the next 3 seasons, and thus has closer to a negative $30 WAR value surplus, after the cash, the deferment makes it so that you are outlaying the appropriate cash for those three seasons, and you'd get the other two.

And if he continues to pitch 200 IP and at a 3.5 ERA for three years, 4-5 WAR seasons, including Marsh instead of Deveaux is closer to even value.

Yes I don't think they should swap Jones, Marsh, Suarez and a few lower tier prospects for the privilege of taking on $100M in salary, but one of those first three guys or Thaiss makes some sense.

 

The package would effectively knock the price of Grienke down to 3/70.  But I didn't realize that Jake Lamb and Robbie Ray only had two years left, I thought they had three.  The package I proposed is way too high then.  Two years isn't much control.