2018 Hot Stove League

[Angel Oracle]

On ‎11‎/‎9‎/‎2018 at 8:07 PM, Troll Daddy said:

 

Watch Dumbpoto get fleeced yet again.   But it will satisfy his "get paid by the trade" salary. 

[GrittyVeterans]

The Yankees are going to go all in this offseason. Would not be shocked if they get Corbin and Paxton. Ownership there is not satisfied watching the Red Sox be the better team

[Chuck]

Ryu is off the table. Accepted the Dodgers QO.

[Second Base]

Yankees and Corbin seems like a foregone conclusion. I wouldn't waste the ink. Sort of like JD Martinez and Boston last year. Lots of posturing, lots of waiting, lots of drama, all for the outcome everyone expected several months prior.

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, GrittyVeterans said:

The Yankees are going to go all in this offseason. Would not be shocked if they get Corbin and Paxton. Ownership there is not satisfied watching the Red Sox be the better team

Agree.  I see them getting Corbin and Paxton or Kluber.  

[popo85]

Doc and Chuckster do yall think we end up with Eovaldi or Keuchel?

[Docwaukee]

8 minutes ago, popo85 said:

Doc and Chuckster do yall think we end up with Eovaldi or Keuchel?

I think Eovaldi is a lock to go back to Boston.  I thought at first we could go after Keuchel but considering that we'd have to give up our 2nd round pick, we may not.  Still on the fence about whether they do that or not though.  He's also a Boras client so he'll likely go where he's paid the most.  I could see him landing in Cinnci or for the CWS.  Or maybe even the Brewers.  A's could be a dark horse too.  

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, GrittyVeterans said:

The Yankees are going to go all in this offseason. Would not be shocked if they get Corbin and Paxton. Ownership there is not satisfied watching the Red Sox be the better team

Outside of Stanton and Ellsbury, they don't have any big salaries.    They have enough youth, to where they can now augment them and Stanton with a couple of strong pitchers.

[Docwaukee]

18 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Outside of Stanton and Ellsbury, they don't have any big salaries.    They have enough youth, to where they can now augment them and Stanton with a couple of strong pitchers.

chapman and tanaka say hi.  

[Angel Oracle]

4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

chapman and tanaka say hi.  

Oops, although they aren't long contracts remaining , just as Ellsbury's isn't.   

Chapman has 3 years/$51.6 million remaining, with an opt out after 2019.   Tanaka has 2 years/$45 million remaining.

After 2020, they are looking good long term wise on the salary front, outside of Stanton. 

[Second Base]

22 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I think Eovaldi is a lock to go back to Boston.  I thought at first we could go after Keuchel but considering that we'd have to give up our 2nd round pick, we may not.  Still on the fence about whether they do that or not though.  He's also a Boras client so he'll likely go where he's paid the most.  I could see him landing in Cinnci or for the CWS.  Or maybe even the Brewers.  A's could be a dark horse too.  

I think it's becoming increasingly more doubtful that the Angels give up a draft pick for any free agent.  Eppler has specifically targeted players in free agency or trade that he wouldn't have to give up a pick for. 

I expect to see him target free agents that won't cost a draft pick, that being Eovaldi, Happ, Kikuchi, Gio Gonzalez, Anibal Sanchez, Cahill, Lynn, Holland, Santana, Pomeranz....

And of that group, the sort that would be the dependable type he's been vocal in pursuing, would narrow it down to Happ, Kikuchi, Gonzalez, Lynn.

And we know that Eppler prefers pitchers that can...

1. Pump heat. 

2. Throw strikes. 

3. Generate ground balls

Lance Lynn kind of fits it, but not perfectly.  Gio Gonzalez also fits it, though again, not perfectly.  The same can be said of J.A. Happ. Yusei Kikuchi absolutely fits this description, pretty much to a "T".  

So Yusei Kikuchi will likely be the first pitcher we target and sign.  And as for the second.....for me, it's a toss up between Gio Gonzalez and Lance Lynn.  But I'm thinking since the rotation will feature three lefties in Skaggs, Heaney and Kikuchi, I'm guessing Eppler will target the righty.  

So Kikuchi and Lance Lynn will be Angels.

If we guess that they'll likely cost around 18 million, that leaves 12 million left to spend on a catcher and 1B/3B.  This is me just throwing crap in the air, but Kurt Suzuki and Mike Moustakas. 

There, nailed it, right?

[WeaverFever]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

I think it's becoming increasingly more doubtful that the Angels give up a draft pick for any free agent.  Eppler has specifically targeted players in free agency or trade that he wouldn't have to give up a pick for. 

I expect to see him target free agents that won't cost a draft pick, that being Eovaldi, Happ, Kikuchi, Gio Gonzalez, Anibal Sanchez, Cahill, Lynn, Holland, Santana, Pomeranz....

And of that group, the sort that would be the dependable type he's been vocal in pursuing, would narrow it down to Happ, Kikuchi, Gonzalez, Lynn.

And we know that Eppler prefers pitchers that can...

1. Pump heat. 

2. Throw strikes. 

3. Generate ground balls

Lance Lynn kind of fits it, but not perfectly.  Gio Gonzalez also fits it, though again, not perfectly.  The same can be said of J.A. Happ. Yusei Kikuchi absolutely fits this description, pretty much to a "T".  

So Yusei Kikuchi will likely be the first pitcher we target and sign.  And as for the second.....for me, it's a toss up between Gio Gonzalez and Lance Lynn.  But I'm thinking since the rotation will feature three lefties in Skaggs, Heaney and Kikuchi, I'm guessing Eppler will target the righty.  

So Kikuchi and Lance Lynn will be Angels.

If we guess that they'll likely cost around 18 million, that leaves 12 million left to spend on a catcher and 1B/3B.  This is me just throwing crap in the air, but Kurt Suzuki and Mike Moustakas. 

There, nailed it, right?

Not that I think that any of the guys available are the answer but it seems to me like especially the least couple of years we have solved our problems with duct tape. I hope this doesn’t continue this year. 

[jessecrall]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

I think it's becoming increasingly more doubtful that the Angels give up a draft pick for any free agent.  Eppler has specifically targeted players in free agency or trade that he wouldn't have to give up a pick for. 

I expect to see him target free agents that won't cost a draft pick, that being Eovaldi, Happ, Kikuchi, Gio Gonzalez, Anibal Sanchez, Cahill, Lynn, Holland, Santana, Pomeranz....

And of that group, the sort that would be the dependable type he's been vocal in pursuing, would narrow it down to Happ, Kikuchi, Gonzalez, Lynn.

And we know that Eppler prefers pitchers that can...

1. Pump heat. 

2. Throw strikes. 

3. Generate ground balls

Lance Lynn kind of fits it, but not perfectly.  Gio Gonzalez also fits it, though again, not perfectly.  The same can be said of J.A. Happ. Yusei Kikuchi absolutely fits this description, pretty much to a "T".  

So Yusei Kikuchi will likely be the first pitcher we target and sign.  And as for the second.....for me, it's a toss up between Gio Gonzalez and Lance Lynn.  But I'm thinking since the rotation will feature three lefties in Skaggs, Heaney and Kikuchi, I'm guessing Eppler will target the righty.  

So Kikuchi and Lance Lynn will be Angels.

If we guess that they'll likely cost around 18 million, that leaves 12 million left to spend on a catcher and 1B/3B.  This is me just throwing crap in the air, but Kurt Suzuki and Mike Moustakas. 

There, nailed it, right?

You're right about Eppler avoiding guys who turned down qualifying offers and it's sound operating procedure considering who've they've landed in the 2nd round...Kikuchi and Suzuki are also on my wish list and since Lynn inexplicably looked like Verlander against Trout, I'll take him on a cheap deal as well. Moustakas, eh...the Angels passed last go around and he just screams "Will collapse any day now." Not to sound like an old school Moneyball scout but he's a slow, bad-body guy with mediocre on base skills. I'd rather have Fletcher at 3rd because he's cheaper and his defense is likely to be a good win better than Moose's. Descalco's still my guy to fill out the infield.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

On 11/12/2018 at 3:07 PM, Dochalo said:

I thought at first we could go after Keuchel but considering that we'd have to give up our 2nd round pick, we may not.  Still on the fence about whether they do that or not though.  He's also a Boras client so he'll likely go where he's paid the most.  I could see him landing in Cinnci or for the CWS.  Or maybe even the Brewers.  A's could be a dark horse too.  

Would the Reds/A's give up a 2nd rounder? They are constantly rebuilding....

ChiSox may rather go younger as well. With their talented young nucleus!

Brewers maybe...... St Louis, Giants, Nats might be my dark horse choices.

[Angel Oracle]

If they sign him, I hope Kikuchi's shoulder holds up.

Instead of Moose, I'd rather sign Robertson to a two year deal, hoping Arte will go $2-3 million over the $30 million allocation. 

[Tank]

On 11/6/2018 at 6:27 PM, beatlesrule said:

The Dodgers are expected to give Dave Roberts a four-year extension tomorrow.

will it be enough to stop all the people here who think sosh has secretly been a dodger in angels' clothing the last 19 years? 

i'd absolutely bet no.

[Tank]

On 11/8/2018 at 8:49 AM, Lou said:

also, you have no idea how old I am. 

eleventy-threeve?

[Docwaukee]

7 hours ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Would the Reds/A's give up a 2nd rounder? They are constantly rebuilding....

ChiSox may rather go younger as well. With their talented young nucleus!

Brewers maybe...... St Louis, Giants, Nats might be my dark horse choices.

i think Cinnci or CWS are going to make a 'Lester' type move and grab a vet anchor for their rotation.  Frankly, I think they'll be disappointed as would I if the halos signed him.  He doesn't move the needle for me as much as he should relative to his cost.  

Tier 1 guys are a crap shoot.  You could get a Scherzer or a Price.  

Tier 2 and 3 guys have huge bust potential on anything more than 3 years. Even 3 is pushing it for  most of these guys.  Name a SP free agent that wasn't elite who signed for 4 years or more and worked out well.  And by not worked out I mean that they had at least one total blowout year in the contract at best.  

ones that haven't worked from 2006 of 3 or more years - vince padilla, ted lilly, jeff supan, jason schmidt, dais-k, gil meche, barry zito, carlos silva, ryan dempster, AJ Burnett, Derek Lowe, John Lackey, Randy Wolf, CJ Wilson, Anibal Sanchez, Edwin Jackson, Jeremy Guthrie, Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Vargas, Scott Feldman, Phil Hughes, James Shields, Ervin Santana, Brandon McCarthy, Francisco Liriano, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen, Mike Leake, Ian Kennedy, Scott Kazmir, Ivan Nova, Yu Darvish, Alex Cobb, Tyler Chatwood, Mike Minor.  

ones that have - Darvish (1st contract out of Japan), Ryu (mildly successful at 6/36 in 2012), Tanaka, JA Happ (2015 with the jays).  

So far so good - Rich Hill through 2 of 3 years,  

tier 1 not included - Sabathia (2009), Cliff Lee (2010), Zack Greinke (2012 dodgers), Scherzer, Lester, David Price, Greinke #2 with AZ

 

So if we are looking at historical precedent for signing a pitcher that isn't elite to a deal of 3 or more years, it's basically guys coming from Japan and 1 out of the other 40.  Since there really isn't anyone elite in this class, stick to guys who will sign for 2 years or less or Kikuchi.  

[Blarg]

Throw out the playoffs and World Series, look at Eovaldi's career and then tell me why you think this guy is a viable front of the rotation starter. That is the money investment that it would require and yet I can't really see that pitcher in his career stats. 

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Blarg said:

Throw out the playoffs and World Series, look at Eovaldi's career and then tell me why you think this guy is a viable front of the rotation starter. That is the money investment that it would require and yet I can't really see that pitcher in his career stats. 

I agree, but of all the guys that are available he seems to be the one with the biggest gap between stuff and performance.  That of course is tempting for any GM or Pitching Coach that thinks they could figure out how to close that gap.  Unfortunately because of his dominant post season you’ll be paying a premium to take that chance.  

[totdprods]

5 hours ago, Blarg said:

Throw out the playoffs and World Series, look at Eovaldi's career and then tell me why you think this guy is a viable front of the rotation starter. That is the money investment that it would require and yet I can't really see that pitcher in his career stats. 

He’s also already had Tommy John twice, and if I recall, once you’ve had the surgery twice, your odds of it happening a third time increase significantly. 

That’s enough to make me pause. 

[T.G.]

Mathis signs a 2 yr deal with Texas 

[beatlesrule]

Please do not get upset by the following; Jeff Mathis signs a 2 year contract with the Rangers. The GOAT is now back in our division.  Scioscia to Texas confirmed! I encourage everyone here to google the suicide helpline number.  Everything will be okay.

[Troll Daddy]

1 minute ago, beatlesrule said:

Please do not get upset by the following; Jeff Mathis signs a 2 year contract with the Rangers. The GOAT is now back in our division.  Scioscia to Texas confirmed! I encourage everyone here to google the suicide helpline number.  Everything will be okay.

No surprise here ... was hoping the Angels would sign him

[Lou]

why the hell would you give him a 2-year deal?