How is this team going to be better in 2019?

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I certainly get the point but unless the Angels have a secret plan for a different ballpark, I think it is wise to simply pursue the best players and not be gun shy over what ballpark the Angels play in.

Are you ok with him getting twice the contract as Upton for similar results just to have a 3rd baseman?  

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

He needs to get that out of his head. 

Why? He's about to be a FA with a half-dozen teams offering him hundreds of millions of dollars. 

I'd be asking for whatever I want in that position.

[tdawg87]

18 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Over the last 4 years, yea, he's been around an .830 -.850 OPS, which is solid. It definitely is useful with his defense. I guess the question is how much is that worth? Cause we definitely won't be getting those elite Coors numbers. I'm not saying the splits are bad away from Coors, but it's relevant to look at. This team needs offense more than anything and realistically, Arenado has performed similarly to Upton's career OPS on the road (if you're counting his last 4 years). Which is fine, but it's also not an elite hitter.

An .850 OPS with elite defense at a premium position? I'd throw all of Arte's money at that. That's a 6 WAR player right there.

[hangin n wangin]

4 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Why? He's about to be a FA with a half-dozen teams offering him hundreds of millions of dollars. 

I'd be asking for whatever I want in that position.

I meant if he wanted to go to the Angels, which we have no clue if he does or not, but most likely he doesn't.

[UndertheHalo]

If the Angels have an opportunity to sign Machado that’s what they need to do.  We have no idea if Arenado will be available.  

Bird in hand and all that. 

[hangin n wangin]

9 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

An .850 OPS with elite defense at a premium position? I'd throw all of Arte's money at that. That's a 6 WAR player right there.

Touche'. I'm not against it. I would love to have Nolan Arenado on my favorite baseball team. Just have to wait and see what happens and if it does, pray that he plays up to what his expectations are and that it's not a bad contract.

[totdprods]

Another thing - 
If Scioscia is truly leaving, we could be entering a truly new era for the Angels. If Moreno has long-term plans that have Eppler at the helm with his new manager, and that's been communicated to Billy, he may be going into '19 and '20 as true transition years now. He may know he has enough job security to focus more on competing '21 and beyond, and he's focusing on that, and leaving Trout's fate up to Trout when he has the opportunity to make that choice. He knows his future is Adell, Canning, Jackson, Knowles, and while I'm sure he has every desire to have Trout included, his priority may not be making sure the Angels are WS-calibre in '19-'20. 

Note: That doesn't mean he'll blow up the Angels now, sell, or not make an attempt to compete. But he may have a very new vision on how to build his team that doesn't mean going for the best possible roster the next two years, i.e. Machado, Donaldson, Arenado, etc. He may have his sights on the Adell Years.

[Dtwncbad]

Signing Machado doesn't disrupt any plans for the "Adell years."

He would be part of that plan.

[Hubs]

I would also say they can get better offensively from the minors/current team if, a) Jo Adell makes it to the majors in 2019 and is Trout lite. b) Taylor Ward is the second coming of Jose Ramirez c) Fletcher is a super utility guy like Izturis d) We get production out of 1st base at near an .800 OPS clip, e) Cozart turns in a year near what he did in 2017.

I like Fletcher, he plays hard, and he seems to be a future regular, but maybe not just yet. His OPS has slipped to sub .700, and while that is an improvement over Luis Valbuena, it's not that good. And he is a rookie and not all rookies are Trout, but I don't know if promising the 2nd base job virtually to a guy with limited experience is right. Renfigo looks to be the guy for the future, but he's only 21, and hasn't killed the ball in AAA. Fletcher can play 25 games at all sorts of positions and be very valuable, I think he could be the regular OF sub for 2019, the super utility Chone Figgins/type.

If he hits, he can play more and Ward and Cozart play less.

Calhoun needs to not slump, Upton needs to rebound a bit, and the rest of the above happens.

I can see the Angels scoring 800-850 runs with that lineup, but everything would have to go right.
 

 

 

 

 

 

[totdprods]

22 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Signing Machado doesn't disrupt any plans for the "Adell years."

He would be part of that plan.

Sure, he might be, but Eppler may want to keep his payroll clear and work through his internal options for a couple years leading into the Adell Years and then fill out his needs via FA at that time.

[Jeff Fletcher]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q7dlNaSqB4vip6QD88MCaahpPjiZrS7dgOam_TrElLg

I have them at 142M. Threshold is 206

[Hubs]

I also think Pujols taking a day off a week, will help him be sharper. He needs to be able to play 1B, when Ohtani DH's, but one day off a week also helps with that log jam.

Ohtani pitching say Sundays again, gives you him available from Tuesday-Friday as a DH. If Pujols say took Tuesday's off, then he plays around 130-135 games, there are 27 weeks on the season usually, and they play every Tuesday 162-27 = 135. I'd give him 5 or so other days off too.

He'd play 1B on Wed, Thurs, & Fridays, DH Sat, Sun, & Mondays. That gives him roughly 65-75 games at DH and 65-75 games at 1B. That's do-able for a 39 year old. Ohtani then gets 80-90ish games at DH, and someone gets 80-90 games at 1B.

That could be Thaiss, that could be Fernandez, that could be Calhoun, they have a lot of options not named Jefry or Luis. Pujols is likely a league average hitter or slightly below, and he is under contract for nearly 80M for three more seasons.

This season they regularly trotted out a lineup with 4 guys who weren't hitting in Calhoun, Valbuena/Marte (sometimes both), Kinsler, Maldonado.

They got no production from these four spots, averaging a .300 OBP or below. They need to improve batting average and on base percentage, which they can do with a better catcher via FA, and Taylor Ward/Fletcher/etc. Producing.

[Hubs]

3 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q7dlNaSqB4vip6QD88MCaahpPjiZrS7dgOam_TrElLg

I have them at 142M. Threshold is 206

That's including arbitration eligible guys and it's the CBP payroll.

Do you really think they spend 10M on Shoemaker and Ramirez? I doubt it.

 

[Angelsjunky]

There's just no way that the Angels are going to be comparable to the Sox, Yankees, and Astros in 2019. Let's accept that and not go into panic mode and try to stack up for next year. What is more important is the trajectory: get better and younger, year by year.

I know it is hard to accept this, but 2019 really should be a stage-setter for 2020 and beyond. 2019 is the year that we'll see a lot of young players get playing time, to see who the building blocks are. 

Machado assumes he'll happily play 3B, which may not be the case. The Angels already have a better option at SS. They're neck and neck in WAR, but I'd rather have an "amazing defender, good hitter" than a "mediocre defender, very good plus hitter" at short. The Angels can make up the 20-30 point wRC+ gap between the two at other positions; they can't make up the defense.

So I say, kick the tires on Grandal - he's a very good player, will cost a quarter as much, and fills an even larger hole. Upgrade the bullpen. Give the young guys a chance, and build for a sustainable greatness in the 2020s.

[Angelsjunky]

26 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I would also say they can get better offensively from the minors/current team if...b) Taylor Ward is the second coming of Jose Ramirez

Dude, why would you even say that? Do you realize that Ramirez is having one of the greatest seasons ever by a third baseman? He is one of the very best players in baseball, is 25 years old (just a year and three months older than Ward) and has already produced 20.7 fWAR.

To mention them in the same breath is like saying "hopefully Thaiss is the second coming of Joey Votto."

It ain't gonna happen.

Now maybe Ward can hit .270/.350/.450 and play passable defense at 3B...that would be awesome. But let's not talk Jose Ramirez.

[Dtwncbad]

I don't get why people focused on 2020 and 2021 because of Adell don't see that Machado would be in his twenties in these years.

Trout is losing in his prime years because there isn't enough talent on the roater around him.

Trout is better than Adell is.  Isnthenplan tp repeat the roster strategy with Adell and not have high imoact players?  Or wait and then choose from 31 and 32 year old free agents to add?

Don't we want both Trout and a 28 year old Machado on the roster when Adell is arriving?

Helps winning chances now and into the next era.

 

 

 

 

[T.G.]

2 hours ago, Hubs said:

Taylor Ward is the second coming of Jose Ramirez

[Jeff Fletcher]

2 hours ago, Hubs said:

That's including arbitration eligible guys and it's the CBP payroll.

Do you really think they spend 10M on Shoemaker and Ramirez? I doubt it.

 

Probably not. I haven’t really updated those guys all year. 

[Farmbuildingfan]

6 hours ago, hangin n wangin said:

The Angels under Arte Moreno have shown they are willing to spend, but only to a certain extent. Arte hasn't once gone over his limit since he has taken over the team. I don't see it happening any time soon.

But is Arte willing to spend for someone under 30?

He would be going into unchartered territory

[Stradling]

15 minutes ago, Farmbuildingfan said:

But is Arte willing to spend for someone under 30?

He would be going into unchartered territory

I’ll ask Trout.  I also heard we had the highest offer to Heyward, but luckily for us he chose to go to Chicago.  

[mulwin444]

Right now, the Angel's have one healthy legit starter...Heaney.  That's our "5 man rotation" right now.

Skaggs? Arm seems fine but hammy is a lingering issue

Tropeano?  Shoulder issues are a concern but both Skaggs and Heaney had shoulder strains and inflammation the season they came back from Tommy John surgery so that seems normal.

Ohtani?  Elbow might always be an issue but you have to give an ace his shot.

Richard's and J.C. Ramirez are all done.  Meyer and Shoemaker look destined for the BP.

If everything goes perfectly, our rotation will be be:

Ohtani, Skaggs, Barria, Heaney, and Tropeano

While talented, none of these guys are workhorse aces...there are no Verlander's in this bunch.

They need to spend on a solid frontline starter like Corbin or Keuchel and 1 year depth like Harvey, Eovaldi, Lynn, or Hellicksom.  Then, take some of the redundant prospect currency and see if they work a trade for front line starter like DeGrom or Bumgarner.

Additionally, they need a closer...see what it would take to pry Iglesias away from Cincy or see what it would cost for Kimbrel or Herrera.

We have Alvarez, Parker, Bedrosian, Anderson, Robles, Cole, Shoemaker, Meyer, Buttrey and Jerez all in the BP mix but no legit closer candidates.

Complete the rotation and BP with some predictability and then look to the offense.

If Ohtani is healthy enough to pitch, he'll also be your DH, so Ohtani and Pujols will get the starts at DH and 1B.

2B will likely be covered by Fletcher but I can see him also plugging as a super utility at 3B, SS, 2B, and corner OF as needed.

SS is covered by the best in the game.

3B is the toss up and why I'd like to see Ward up sooner rather than later.  If his bat plays, that solves a lot of issues.  Reports are he has the arm and athleticism for the position but needs reps and work on his positioning.  Cozart is the likely alternative if he's not ready.

Cozart, JMF, Ward, and Fletcher are going to be counted on to fill 2B/3B before they look to someone like Machado because Eppler and company will look to Machado's contract (Harper's as well) as the basis for Trout's extension with RF and LF covered by Calhoun and Upton respectively.

Money will likely be spent on pitching and Trout (if possible)

[eligrba]

Machado would be a nice addition.

It's not my money.

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

I’ll ask Trout.  I also heard we had the highest offer to Heyward, but luckily for us he chose to go to Chicago.  

Interesting. Do you believe it's true? Hard to imagine they would put that offer on the table and not turn around and sign Upton, given that they obviously wanted him.

[Dtwncbad]

Can I just say that having a body to "solve" each position does not solve the probkem of the overall team being good enough to contend.

If you want a championship caliber team, you have to be willing to be critical of passable players and willing to set the bar higher.

I am all for Taylor Ward getting a look.  But at this point the notion that this guy is going to "solve" 3B for the Angels seems extremely naive. 

[Docwaukee]

we have the 9th best offense/defense

the 19th best SP

the 26th best pen.  

but all of that is deceiving.  Because 2 players skew the offensive/defensive numbers so much. To the tune of 66% in fact.  As we've seen, unbalanced lineups create massive inconsistency.  So where are the opportunities for offense?  OF is set.  SS is set.  1b/DH is set.  

So where is the bang for buck going to come from?  

C? 1.8 WAR so far this year.  Ranked 10th.  (yeah - better than I thought).  Is that reproducible base on what we currently have?  Not a chance.  But Yasmani Grandal is available and he's been a 3 WAR player on avg. the last three years.  

2b? 2.5 WAR for the year.  Ranked 7th.  Cozart had 0.5 of that in 72 pa and a 113 wRC+.  not spectacular but held up by defense.  Kinsler's defense and mediocre offense was worth 2.0 WAR.  ergo - Cozart moves to 2b (probable avg bat and really good defense.  plus his 3b defense was terrible).  Other possible candidates.  Rengifo and Fletcher.  Fletcher's 3b defense has been absolutely incredible so while many would think to park Fletcher at 2b and Cozart at 3b, the better play is switching that up.  

3b? 0.6 WAR for the year.  Ranked 24th and David Fletcher has provided 0.9 of that WAR in 100 PA.  That's right.  the other 350 pa has been worth -0.3 WAR by Cozart and Luis Valseeya.  So this is where you're going to get you're bang.  But at what buck?  I would love to have Machado.  Incredible 3b.  MOTO bat.  kind of a douche.  Terrible defensive SS.  He's going to get paid to be a SS.  Or put another way.  He wants to play SS.  Or put another way.  He's not going to come to the halos to play 3b.  So until he says he'll play 3b, we might as well get it out of our heads.   

Here's an interesting question.  Is Fletcher good enough to put up 0.9 WAR per 100 PA at 3b?  He's had a 124 wRC+ when he plays there.  Not likely that continues.  But the defense is not an aberration.  So if his bat is avg. then he's a 3 WAR player at that position.  But that's far from a sure thing.  

I also don't want to downplay the impact that Calhoun's alien abduction had on the offense early in the season.  We have to hope/assume he can continue his current level of production because we aren't signing Harper or anyone else for that matter.  

So the biggest potential impact?

1b.  -0.8 WAR for the year so far.  -0.6 of that from LVB.  

Do Fletcher, Ward, JMF, Thaiss and Cozart elevate 2b,3b, 1b enough to make an impact?  for the uncertainty there, I really do think we'll add a 1yr deal to someone like a donaldson.  

Or do what I really want them to do and that's find a way to add Suarez without giving up Adell or Canning.  But I know that's not gonna happen.