How is this team going to be better in 2019?

[Dtwncbad]

10 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, however, I just don't think Arte pays for Machado. We're going to have to outbid a huge market. I don't see it happening. Not saying it can't.

But I'm saying it won't. But it could. But probably not.

I guess we will find out.  There is no good reason to not sign Machado considering team need, team budget, player fit, player ability, and player age.

If they don't pursue Machado as a 26 year old that is as good an overall fit as I have seen (maybe ever as an Angel fan), then I really don't know what the $82m in available money is for.

And I am not some Macahado worshipper.  I have zero emotional attachment to him as a player.

He is simply in my view the right fit.

I could not care less about the money, other than acknowledging the reality that Arte likes to stay below the luxury tax.

$82million open?  Machado available at 26? MVP caliber player? MOTO bat?

Sign me up.

[totdprods]

What I'd like to see: 

Barring dramatic MLB production from Fernandez, Ward, Hermosillo, Thaiss, and Rengifo for the rest of this year, I would...

• Replace Marte with someone like a Steve Pearce, Jose Martinez, Tyler Austin type, a CIF/COF who legitimately mashes lefties and offers true insurance should Pujols, Ohtani, or Cozart break down. 
• Replace Chris Young with a speedy, defense-first 4th OF - either a lefty high-contact/OBP guy like Jon Jay, Leonys Martin, or another lefty-mashing, defense-first guy like Brandon Guyer or a Cameron Maybin reunion.
• Fernandez, Ward, Hermosillo, Thaiss, and Rengifo all will certainly be on the MLB depth charts still. As of right now, Fletcher is my starting '19 second-baseman. 

Regarding catcher, I'm actually feeling pretty optimistic about Briceno, Arcia, and to a lesser degree, Kruger and even Hudson. Since both have options though, I would...

• Pursue a reunion with Maldonado or Rivera, and kick tires on other 1-yr vets, but only after exhausting options regarding...
• a trade for someone a little more off-radar. Tucker Barnhart, James McCann, Andrew Knapp, Elias Diaz, Tony Wolters, Austin Hedges, Omar Narvaez all strike me as legit possibilities. 
• Circling back to the top of the post, if we do decide to roll with the youth for our IF/OF depth, then I'd be down pursuing Grandal or Ramos as some costlier offensive help at catcher.

Next up is pitching. I'm sticking to my idea that it'll be difficult for Thaiss and Ward to co-exist on the MLB roster the next couple years. One's getting dealt, and I think Suarez is too. 

• Offer one of Ward/Thaiss, Suarez, and one of the Rivas, Hunter, CRod, Lund types up and take the best SP you can get in a trade. If adding Marsh gets you someone next level, do it.
• If you've been able to round out the bench with youth and trade for a catcher, you've got money to spend still! Pursue someone like Eovaldi or a one-year vet. There's lots. Avoid Corbin and Keuchel. Too many lefties already, and too much money, unless you had to trade Heaney for a catcher.
   

Lastly, the bullpen. I'm gonna roll the dice here and trust the fixes above have helped us enough. That said..

• Spend some money. Sign one solid vet arm for a strong deal, but don't go crazy on the top arms. Maybe David Robertson.
• Continue shuffling the deck - replace Noe, Alvarez, McGuire, Paredes, Morris, and Almonte on the depth chart with more minor deals and hope something sticks. 

SP:
Fronted by Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney
Supplemented with the return from your Ward/Thaiss+ trade (best bet? A Wheeler, Stroman, or Bundy type, maybe more like a Junis, Urena)
Rounded out by Barria, Shoemaker, Canning, Tropeano. Meyer, and maybe a vet on a one-year. 

RP: 
Fronted by your vet FA RP, let's go ahead and say Robertson
With a returning core of Parker, Bedrosian, Robles, Anderson,
And rounded out with the depthy-SPs, with Cole, Rhoades, Jerez, Buttrey, etc. in the mix and Eppler's other no-name gems

Line-up:
RF Calhoun, CF Trout, LF Upton, 1B Pujols, DH Ohtani, SS Simmons, 3B Cozart, C trade return, 2B Fletcher
Bench: 
C Briceno/Arcia, let's say UT IF Jose Fernandez and Sean Rodriguez, and 4th OF Brandon Guyer/Leonys Martin/Jon Jay
AAA:
Still have one of Thaiss/Ward, Rengifo and Herm waiting in the wings should anyone get injured or our UT IF and 4th OF suck, and Adell and Jones looming.

[Dtwncbad]

11 minutes ago, totdprods said:

What I'd like to see: 

Barring dramatic MLB production from Fernandez, Ward, Hermosillo, Thaiss, and Rengifo for the rest of this year, I would...

• Replace Marte with someone like a Steve Pearce, Jose Martinez, Tyler Austin type, a CIF/COF who legitimately mashes lefties and offers true insurance should Pujols, Ohtani, or Cozart break down. 
• Replace Chris Young with a speedy, defense-first 4th OF - either a lefty high-contact/OBP guy like Jon Jay, Leonys Martin, or another lefty-mashing, defense-first guy like Brandon Guyer or a Cameron Maybin reunion.
• Fernandez, Ward, Hermosillo, Thaiss, and Rengifo all will certainly be on the MLB depth charts still. As of right now, Fletcher is my starting '19 second-baseman. 

Regarding catcher, I'm actually feeling pretty optimistic about Briceno, Arcia, and to a lesser degree, Kruger and even Hudson. Since both have options though, I would...

• Pursue a reunion with Maldonado or Rivera, and kick tires on other 1-yr vets, but only after exhausting options regarding...
• a trade for someone a little more off-radar. Tucker Barnhart, James McCann, Andrew Knapp, Elias Diaz, Tony Wolters, Austin Hedges, Omar Narvaez all strike me as legit possibilities. 
• Circling back to the top of the post, if we do decide to roll with the youth for our IF/OF depth, then I'd be down pursuing Grandal or Ramos as some costlier offensive help at catcher.

Next up is pitching. I'm sticking to my idea that it'll be difficult for Thaiss and Ward to co-exist on the MLB roster the next couple years. One's getting dealt, and I think Suarez is too. 

• Offer one of Ward/Thaiss, Suarez, and one of the Rivas, Hunter, CRod, Lund types up and take the best SP you can get in a trade. If adding Marsh gets you someone next level, do it.
• If you've been able to round out the bench with youth and trade for a catcher, you've got money to spend still! Pursue someone like Eovaldi or a one-year vet. There's lots. Avoid Corbin and Keuchel. Too many lefties already, and too much money, unless you had to trade Heaney for a catcher.
   

Lastly, the bullpen. I'm gonna roll the dice here and trust the fixes above have helped us enough. That said..

• Spend some money. Sign one solid vet arm for a strong deal, but don't go crazy on the top arms. Maybe David Robertson.
• Continue shuffling the deck - replace Noe, Alvarez, McGuire, Paredes, Morris, and Almonte on the depth chart with more minor deals and hope something sticks. 

SP:
Fronted by Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney
Supplemented with the return from your Ward/Thaiss+ trade (best bet? A Wheeler, Stroman, or Bundy type, maybe more like a Junis, Urena)
Rounded out by Barria, Shoemaker, Canning, Tropeano. Meyer, and maybe a vet on a one-year. 

RP: 
Fronted by your vet FA RP, let's go ahead and say Robertson
With a returning core of Parker, Bedrosian, Robles, Anderson,
And rounded out with the depthy-SPs, with Cole, Rhoades, Jerez, Buttrey, etc. in the mix and Eppler's other no-name gems

Line-up:
RF Calhoun, CF Trout, LF Upton, 1B Pujols, DH Ohtani, SS Simmons, 3B Cozart, C trade return, 2B Fletcher
Bench: 
C Briceno/Arcia, let's say UT IF Jose Fernandez and Sean Rodriguez, and 4th OF Brandon Guyer/Leonys Martin/Jon Jay
AAA:
Still have one of Thaiss/Ward, Rengifo and Herm waiting in the wings should anyone get injured or our UT IF and 4th OF suck, and Adell and Jones looming.

I would call your plan a sister kisser.  They would win maybe 85 games.

The offense simply is not good enough.

[floplag]

Machado isnt happening kids, get over it.  We dont need a SS and 3B is our best spot in terms of depth.   I highly doubt this even gets considered.   Nor will Donaldson or any other impact 3B/SS. 

In regards to Thaiss and Ward, why cant they co-exist?  Youre assuming either or both are ML ready which even if they are they play diff spots.  We dont really need a 3B today, but we certainly need someone else at 1B.  This will shake itself out in the next couple years but i see no reason both wont be here even if that means dealing or releasing Cozart if he doesnt come back to form. 

The only possible impact they might might might pursue, would be Harper, but i doubt it as hes going to get much larger offers from the Dogs and SF i think so unless he wants to come to the AL we wont be real players in that.  

[Torridd]

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

Machado isnt happening kids, get over it.  We dont need a SS and 3B is our best spot in terms of depth.   I highly doubt this even gets considered.   Nor will Donaldson or any other impact 3B/SS. 

In regards to Thaiss and Ward, why cant they co-exist?  Youre assuming either or both are ML ready which even if they are they play diff spots.  We dont really need a 3B today, but we certainly need someone else at 1B.  This will shake itself out in the next couple years but i see no reason both wont be here even if that means dealing or releasing Cozart if he doesnt come back to form. 

The only possible impact they might might might pursue, would be Harper, but i doubt it as hes going to get much larger offers from the Dogs and SF i think so unless he wants to come to the AL we wont be real players in that.  

Someone mentioned that Machado will probably go to the Dodgers. If so, could they afford Harper too? I would think those two players are going to separate teams.

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Torridd said:

Someone mentioned that Machado will probably go to the Dodgers. If so, could they afford Harper too? I would think those two players are going to separate teams.

They can afford literally anything they want to afford, its moot.  Yes they could sign both. 
whether or not they want toi is a different story, but i wouldnt be shocked to see them do it if for no other reason that to prevent Harper from going to the Giants who are rumored to be players for him .

[Stradling]

12 minutes ago, floplag said:

Machado isnt happening kids, get over it.  We dont need a SS and 3B is our best spot in terms of depth.   I highly doubt this even gets considered.   Nor will Donaldson or any other impact 3B/SS. 

In regards to Thaiss and Ward, why cant they co-exist?  Youre assuming either or both are ML ready which even if they are they play diff spots.  We dont really need a 3B today, but we certainly need someone else at 1B.  This will shake itself out in the next couple years but i see no reason both wont be here even if that means dealing or releasing Cozart if he doesnt come back to form. 

The only possible impact they might might might pursue, would be Harper, but i doubt it as hes going to get much larger offers from the Dogs and SF i think so unless he wants to come to the AL we wont be real players in that.  

It is very easy to argue that this is entirely backwards.  The upgrade between Machado and Ward is massive especially when we have no idea what Ward could do.  It is much larger than the upgrade between Harper and Kole.  As far as the depth at 3rd versus the depth in the OF, Ward vs Adell isn’t even close.  

[Dtwncbad]

"Depth" at 3B means nothing if none of them are impact starters to play every day.

Just like having 7 Nick Tropeanos for depth doesn't really help you win a division.

It is primarily about how good your everyday lineup is.  Primarily.

Machado at 3B in the middle of the order is high impact.  No amount of depth is a substitute for that.

 

[totdprods]

17 minutes ago, floplag said:

In regards to Thaiss and Ward, why cant they co-exist?  Youre assuming either or both are ML ready which even if they are they play diff spots.  We dont really need a 3B today, but we certainly need someone else at 1B.  This will shake itself out in the next couple years but i see no reason both wont be here even if that means dealing or releasing Cozart if he doesnt come back to form. 

One wrinkle I forgot to mention - I can't see them co-existing on the same team unless at least one learns another position. As of right now, for '19 and '20, I can't see the Angels having both of them on the MLB roster, at least with regular playing time, while they're limited to one position, with Pujols and Ohtani in the fold, provided Cozart is still on the roster. I can't see any scenario where Cozart isn't a starting IF next year for most of the year. 

So, yes, technically both can co-exist, but one is almost always going to be either shuttling to AAA quite a bit or getting sporadic playing time. That can go two ways...look at Cron and Cowart. Cron arguably got plenty of opportunities to grab a full-time role and never really got a firm grip - either due to his struggles or because of the shuttling - and Cowart, to a lesser degree.

I don't think it's best for them or for the Angels to put either Ward or Thaiss into a Cron/Cowart situation for the next two years, where either is forced into more of a reserve/part-time role or shuttled back and forth. They'd be better off cashing one in on a trade and using guys like Fernandez in that situation.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

And how much space is there under the luxury tax threshold for 2019 with contracts expiring?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JJEzXDdi1FoAVCxpssrNq04unxs39JIJg6CRn-IPM1c/pubhtml

[floplag]

15 minutes ago, Stradling said:

It is very easy to argue that this is entirely backwards.  The upgrade between Machado and Ward is massive especially when we have no idea what Ward could do.  It is much larger than the upgrade between Harper and Kole.  As far as the depth at 3rd versus the depth in the OF, Ward vs Adell isn’t even close.  

It isnt about the upgrade, of course he would be better than anyone we have at 3B.  Its about the fact that we already have many options at the position more than others, you sign him you need to clean house. As to Ward versus Adell, im sure your right, but one is near ML ready the pother isnt, huge difference.  

[floplag]

9 minutes ago, totdprods said:

One wrinkle I forgot to mention - I can't see them co-existing on the same team unless at least one learns another position. As of right now, for '19 and '20, I can't see the Angels having both of them on the MLB roster, at least with regular playing time, while they're limited to one position, with Pujols and Ohtani in the fold, provided Cozart is still on the roster. I can't see any scenario where Cozart isn't a starting IF next year for most of the year. 

So, yes, technically both can co-exist, but one is almost always going to be either shuttling to AAA quite a bit or getting sporadic playing time. That can go two ways...look at Cron and Cowart. Cron arguably got plenty of opportunities to grab a full-time role and never really got a firm grip - either due to his struggles or because of the shuttling - and Cowart, to a lesser degree.

I don't think it's best for them or for the Angels to put either Ward or Thaiss into a Cron/Cowart situation for the next two years, where either is forced into more of a reserve/part-time role or shuttled back and forth. They'd be better off cashing one in on a trade and using guys like Fernandez in that situation.

Agreed, for next year, but i could easily see them letting Cozart go after next year if either he doesnt return to form or the 2 of them outplay him. Regardless Cozart isnt in the plans after his deal is up, Ward/Thaiss likely are. 
I think a lot of people here are assuming these guys are legit ML ready, ill need to see that first before i buy it given our prospect history in the last decade .

[totdprods]

36 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I would call your plan a sister kisser.  They would win maybe 85 games.

The offense simply is not good enough.

So your plan is...Machado or bust? 
Where exactly can they upgrade? 

Catcher: sure, we can sign Grandal or Ramos, but they're both up there in age, will cost a lot, and play a position prone to breaking down. Additionally, they could go pumpkin offensively at anytime with their age. Yadier Molina's offensive dropped to league average at 30. Either will eat up most of our money. Realmuto would eat up most of our prospects. Best bet here is to find a good value on someone under-the-radar and hope for cheap, average production. 

1B: Pujols will be here. If he's not, he's at DH, and Ohtani isn't hitting. There ain't shit enticing in FA. 
Best bet is get a very bat-heavy guy, like I mentioned, Jose Martinez, Tyler Austin, Steve Pearce and hope when they get ABs, they deliver, unlike Marte/Valbuena. 

2B: Fletcher will be fine. League-average offensive production for league-minimum. If we wanted to spend here, again, who? Dozier? Asdrubal Cabrera? LeMahieu (who is also league average)

SS: No. 

3B: This will be Cozart. MAYBE Cozart gets penciled into super-sub, but Machado has stated he wants to play SS. So again, who? Donaldson? Dozier? Beltre? 

LF: Upton. 

RF: Calhoun - he sure seemed like an upgrade, but who the hell knows now? If his second half keeps up, he's suddenly an .800 OPS bat with killer defense. With his up and down season, he probably has a really weird, uneven trade value too, so not likely you'll look to trade him. If you did...again, who do you sign or trade for, especially with Adell a year away? Harper doesn't seem likely. Jones? McCutchen? Pollock? Would they be any better than going with Kole?

There just isn't alot to do. 
Replacing Marte, Valbuena, and Chris Young with good bench players would make a ridiculous difference alone. 
Replacing Kinsler with Fletcher is an upgrade. 
Cozart is a total mystery - he's not likely to be any worse, so maybe he'll be better? 

After that, just have to hope Pujols stays a 100 OPS+ guy, Upton has a typical RISP year, and Calhoun isn't the worst hitter in history for 3 months.

[failos]

They're not going to be good next year unless Billy Eppler does something about it. 

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

It isnt about the upgrade, of course he would be better than anyone we have at 3B.  Its about the fact that we already have many options at the position more than others, you sign him you need to clean house. As to Ward versus Adell, im sure your right, but one is near ML ready the pother isnt, huge difference.  

Yes one is major league ready and the other is a year or year and a half away.  The difference is we have a major league quality right fielder right now in Kole.  Our third baseman next year is Ward, Fletcher or Cozart, so Machado would be the the bigger upgrade and I don’t think it is even close.  Plus signing Harper means Adell has no position to play when he is ready.  

[Dtwncbad]

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

It isnt about the upgrade, of course he would be better than anyone we have at 3B.  Its about the fact that we already have many options at the position more than others, you sign him you need to clean house. As to Ward versus Adell, im sure your right, but one is near ML ready the pother isnt, huge difference.  

If you had 9 Nick Tropeanos, would you be interested in Max Scherzer?

Why?  So many options in house and so much depth. . .

 

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

Agreed, for next year, but i could easily see them letting Cozart go after next year if either he doesnt return to form or the 2 of them outplay him. Regardless Cozart isnt in the plans after his deal is up, Ward/Thaiss likely are. 
I think a lot of people here are assuming these guys are legit ML ready, ill need to see that first before i buy it given our prospect history in the last decade .

I think Cozart will bounce back a little bit. Not much, but good defense, a .750 OPS. That'd be fine at 3B or 2B. Not exciting, but still better than we'd had. 

I think for his third year, he starts to lose playing time and turns into an expensive UT IF, but that's offset by the league-minimum deals of Fletcher, Fernandez, Thaiss, Ward, Rengifo, Ohtani taking up IF/DH ABs. 

I don't really think Thaiss/Ward are MLB ready per se, but I do think they are reaching a critical point in their trade value, and the Angels would be better suited cashing one in before one potentially busts in the bigs or get caught in the SLC shuttle/Cron playing-time paradox which I don't truly believe damaged him, but still wouldn't want to see a player get stuck with that limbo.

Given the Angels reasonable 'win-now' mindset and the roster config with Pujols, Cozart, and Ohtani, I just think one of them is prime trade bait.

[floplag]

5 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Yes one is major league ready and the other is a year or year and a half away.  The difference is we have a major league quality right fielder right now in Kole.  Our third baseman next year is Ward, Fletcher or Cozart, so Machado would be the the bigger upgrade and I don’t think it is even close.  Plus signing Harper means Adell has no position to play when he is ready.  

I have never argued the difference in upgrade, youre putting words in my mouth, of course he would be an improvement.  Thats not the point.  The point is we already have 2-3 in the mix for the spot with another coming, its simply not a need.  Is it the best place to spend the money?  Assuming they spend at all.  
Im not in any way suggesting it wouldnt be a huge thing, i just dont see it based on org needs and money.  

[Dtwncbad]

It is not a Machado or bust plan.

They better just try though because it fits and makes sense.

The four teams in playoff spots now are Boston, New York, Cleveland and Houston.

The four top offensive teams (by OPS) in the AL are Boston, New York, Cleveland, and Houston.

The Angels are middle of the pack.

Machado mashes and he is 26.

He is affordable budget wise, he would be part of the influx of youth and he potentially helps make 2019 relevant instead of another development year (year of wasted Trout prime).

I see no reasonable argument to not pursue him.

 

[floplag]

7 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

If you had 9 Nick Tropeanos, would you be interested in Max Scherzer?

Why?  So many options in house and so much depth. . .

 

Exaggeration.   Of course i would, but we still have to play the other 4 days. 

Big picture wise, which is what im talking about,  i wouldnt bother getting a Scherzer unless i had a solid pen for the rest of the week.  These things dont live in a vaccum you have to consider org needs/depth/etc...  the simple fact is that we dont need him regardless of how big an upgrade he would be.  We have need in other places.  

dont take me wrong, by any measurement Machado is the better play, no question, and would be a huge upgrade.   I would love if we got him.  I just dont see it when you factor in the rest of the equation. 

Well see, maybe im wrong, it would be nice, but im not holding my breath

 

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Dtwncbad said:

It is not a Machado or bust plan.

They better just try though because it fits and makes sense.

The four teams in playoff spots now are Boston, New York, Cleveland and Houston.

The four top offensive teams (by OPS) in the AL are Boston, New York, Cleveland, and Houston.

The Angels are middle of the pack.

Machado mashes and he is 26.

He is affordable budget wise, he would be part of the influx of youth and he potentially helps make 2019 relevant instead of another development year (year of wasted Trout prime).

I see no reasonable argument to not pursue him.

 

money, /end reasonable arguments 

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, floplag said:

I have never argued the difference in upgrade, youre putting words in my mouth, of course he would be an improvement.  Thats not the point.  The point is we already have 2-3 in the mix for the spot with another coming, its simply not a need.  Is it the best place to spend the money?  Assuming they spend at all.  
Im not in any way suggesting it wouldnt be a huge thing, i just dont see it based on org needs and money.  

Ok, my point is simply Adell has the potential of being a star type of player, while Ward we are hoping to be an everyday third baseman.  So if the goal is to have more stars and more top end potential, then it is Machado over Harper all day long.  And if we can’t wait one year to get Adell then shame on the Angels.  

I am not calling you out, and I didn’t mean to put words in your mouth but it is my belief that one is a much better upgrade. Hell my money is on Kole having a better WAR than any in house third baseman we have in the loop for next year.  So yea I would still go with Machado and Kole over Harper and Ward

[Angel Oracle]

I like the idea of moving Meyer and Shoe to the pen.   Shoe's splitter works really well an inning or two at a time, and less wear and tear vs starting.

Meyer has the stuff, but seemingly not the endurance to start games. 

Which is better?   Trying to sign Machado in 3-4 months?   Or waiting and signing Arenado after 2019? 

[UndertheHalo]

I’m having trouble with the position that 3B is an area of depth for the Angels.

uhhhh. No. 

If the Angels choose to spend the money and Machado wants to play 3B here.  Then X1000 that is the best case scenario. It may well be that they don’t want to spend the money though.  Considering that they probably want to commit long term to Trout and that they’re still paying Albert. 

[Dtwncbad]

Just now, floplag said:

Exaggeration.   Of course i would, but we still have to play the other 4 days. 

Big picture wise, which is what im talking about,  i wouldnt bother getting a Scherzer unless i had a solid pen for the rest of the week.  These things dont live in a vaccum you have to consider org needs/depth/etc...  the simple fact is that we dont need him regardless of how big an upgrade he would be.  We have need in other places.  

dont take me wrong, by any measurement Machado is the better play, no question, and would be a huge upgrade.   I would love if we got him.  I just dont see it when you factor in the rest of the equation. 

Well see, maybe im wrong, it would be nice, but im not holding my breath

 

Is It?

Ward or Cozart vs. Machado?

And I think the best team is Cozart at 2B with Fletcher as utility.

So now we are comparing Ward or Fletcher everyday to Machado everyday.

Exaggeration?