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How is this team going to be better in 2019?


Dtwncbad

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29 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

You dont think the next 5 or 6 years of Manny Machado will be better offensively than Upton in his 30s?

I don't care how much money these players make as long as they either are winning OR there is room under the luxury tax to address obvious needs when the team is not winning.

So I answered the two parts of your question.

You assume Machado will settle into being a .250 hitter with pop.  I think that is the bottom floor possibility and not likely.

And I dont care how much money he makes compared to Upton any more than I care that a show car owner paid twice as much to restore the dash as he did to paint the car.

I care about the final product and how good it is.

It's pro sports and the point is to win.

I am asking based on what I see on his road splits.  His career OPS on the road is .760, Upton has an OPS of .790 this year.  They have basically identical OPS for their career.  Also in MLB you are paid for your past, so pointing out their OPS is a legit concern.  

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It's really looking like Machado is the one true prize of this coming off season.  

and I think that applies to the trade market as well.  

it really is hard to imagine where the upgrade are going to come from.  Agree that all the FA SP pitchers scare me.  It doesn't bode well that Skaggs and Heaney seem to be wearing down at around 115/125 ip respectively and Trop hasn't seemed healthy all year.  

Barria seems like a 4/5 type in that his command isn't what it needs to be.  Certainly he's not a finished product.  

Who knows how many innings Ohtani is going to give you next year.  But my guess is about 120 max.  

you can't count on Meyer.  Felix Pena is better for the pen.  Suarez and Canning are rookies so even though they are good, we can definitely expect growing pains.  

They might not even keep Shoe and of course Ramirez is going to be out for the year.  

I see a lot of this year happening again.  But what I don't want is 180ip from a Nolasco type with an era around 5.  

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6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I am asking based on what I see on his road splits.  His career OPS on the road is .760, Upton has an OPS of .790 this year.  They have basically identical OPS for their career.  Also in MLB you are paid for your past, so pointing out their OPS is a legit concern.  

I agree that it is historically true that you get paid for your past.  But that is because 98% of free agents hit the market at 30/31ish or even later.

How many times has a fan said "I wish we got the age 26-30 years instead of age 31-36 years?

Machado is entering those seasons not exiting them.

So isn't there some unique possible value here?

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23 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I agree that it is historically true that you get paid for your past.  But that is because 98% of free agents hit the market at 30/31ish or even later.

How many times has a fan said "I wish we got the age 26-30 years instead of age 31-36 years?

Machado is entering those seasons not exiting them.

So isn't there some unique possible value here?

I would hope so.  Since there are very few examples of 26 year old free agents, to get an accurate account of it would be difficult.  Obviously Arod was a young free agent and killed it, Beltran was a young free agent and was fine, Heyward hasn’t been great.  I don’t really think it is a sure thing he is on the upswing, but I am in the camp of getting him, but then again I think I can look at a guy like him or Upton and be a little more objective than others. 

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20 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Dude, why would you even say that? Do you realize that Ramirez is having one of the greatest seasons ever by a third baseman? He is one of the very best players in baseball, is 25 years old (just a year and three months older than Ward) and has already produced 20.7 fWAR.

To mention them in the same breath is like saying "hopefully Thaiss is the second coming of Joey Votto."

It ain't gonna happen.

Now maybe Ward can hit .270/.350/.450 and play passable defense at 3B...that would be awesome. But let's not talk Jose Ramirez.

Yes, I realize Ramirez, now in his third full season, is having an all-time great season. But that's not what I meant. I meant that Ramirez basically came out of nowhere prior to 2016.

In 2013, he had a nice call up and hit well in September, presumably, then had two sub-par up and down years in the minors and the majors. He was never a top 100 prospect, and in fact was rated as the Indians #6 overall prospect in an average system prior to his breakout year. He never dominated in the minors. Ramirez's 2015 slash line was .219 / .291 /.341 / .631 in 97 games. The next year he had an .825 OPS. Then a .957 OPS, then a 1.029 OPS this year. Three All-Star Level Campaigns in a row.

I hope Ward can come out of virtually nowhere, and if he hits like Ramirez did in 2016, .312/.363/.420 I wouldn't be shocked. I actually think he'll be around .380-.420 OBP.

His AA slash line is: .345 / .453 / .520. / .973 OPS. He had 8 2B / 6 HR / 8 SB in just 42 games there.

His AAA slash line is: .354 / .440 / .542 / .982 OPS. He has 16 2B / 8 HR / 9 SB in just 56 games there.

He has 92 walks. His walk rate is 14%. He has always had a good eye, he has a .387 OBP in his career in the minors.

As a potential lead off batter, he would be a legit asset.

 

 

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 I think anyone expecting this team to spend money this off-season is going to be disappointed with the outcome. 

Position Player Openings: Either 2B or 3B, part time 1B/DH, and utility infielder.

Internal Replacements: 3B Taylor Ward (moves Cozart to 2B), INF Jose Miguel Fernandez, INF David Fletcher, INF Luis Rengifo, 1B Matt Thaiss.

This team isn't going to full on block the first youth movement they've had in 7 years with pricey free agents, only to limit their ability to retain Mike Trout.

Starting Rotation: Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney, Barria, Tropeano, Pena, McGuire, Canning, Suarez.

That rotation has "injury history/unproven" stamped right on its forehead. But with that many options and that much upside, the most you'll see Eppler do is bring us a backend workhorse a la Blanton/Nolasco.

The bullpen has never been something Eppler believed in spending money on. So now we have Robles, Cole, Jerez and Buttrey added to the depth chart.

Now mix in Alex Meyer, JC Ramirez and Blake Wood, all of which are out of options, and the return of Kenyan Middleton, plus whatever rule 5 reliever Eppler takes.

That's a crap ton of relievers to choose from, and they are all inexpensive. It's Eppler's dream.

This team isn't spending money this offseason. They're gearing up to offer Trout an extension that exceeds lesser players free agent contracts (Machado and Harper), to keep him an Angel for the rest of his career.

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53 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

It's really looking like Machado is the one true prize of this coming off season.  

and I think that applies to the trade market as well.  

it really is hard to imagine where the upgrade are going to come from.  Agree that all the FA SP pitchers scare me.  It doesn't bode well that Skaggs and Heaney seem to be wearing down at around 115/125 ip respectively and Trop hasn't seemed healthy all year.  

Barria seems like a 4/5 type in that his command isn't what it needs to be.  Certainly he's not a finished product.  

Who knows how many innings Ohtani is going to give you next year.  But my guess is about 120 max.  

you can't count on Meyer.  Felix Pena is better for the pen.  Suarez and Canning are rookies so even though they are good, we can definitely expect growing pains.  

They might not even keep Shoe and of course Ramirez is going to be out for the year.  

I see a lot of this year happening again.  But what I don't want is 180ip from a Nolasco type with an era around 5.  

Oddly enough, that's probably what you'll get. Blantasco.

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16 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

 I think anyone expecting this team to spend money this off-season is going to be disappointed with the outcome. 

Position Player Openings: Either 2B or 3B, part time 1B/DH, and utility infielder.

Internal Replacements: 3B Taylor Ward (moves Cozart to 2B), INF Jose Miguel Fernandez, INF David Fletcher, INF Luis Rengifo, 1B Matt Thaiss.

This team isn't going to full on block the first youth movement they've had in 7 years with pricey free agents, only to limit their ability to retain Mike Trout.

Starting Rotation: Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney, Barria, Tropeano, Pena, McGuire, Canning, Suarez.

That rotation has "injury history/unproven" stamped right on its forehead. But with that many options and that much upside, the most you'll see Eppler do is bring us a backend workhorse a la Blanton/Nolasco.

The bullpen has never been something Eppler believed in spending money on. So now we have Robles, Cole, Jerez and Buttrey added to the depth chart.

Now mix in Alex Meyer, JC Ramirez and Blake Wood, all of which are out of options, and the return of Kenyan Middleton, plus whatever rule 5 reliever Eppler takes.

That's a crap ton of relievers to choose from, and they are all inexpensive. It's Eppler's dream.

This team isn't spending money this offseason. They're gearing up to offer Trout an extension that exceeds lesser players free agent contracts (Machado and Harper), to keep him an Angel for the rest of his career.

Surgically pursuing a 26 year old free agent that blocks Taylor Ward is not blocking the youth movement.

It improves the quality of the youth movement players putting on Angel uniforms.

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1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

It's really looking like Machado is the one true prize of this coming off season.  

and I think that applies to the trade market as well.  

it really is hard to imagine where the upgrade are going to come from.  Agree that all the FA SP pitchers scare me.  It doesn't bode well that Skaggs and Heaney seem to be wearing down at around 115/125 ip respectively and Trop hasn't seemed healthy all year.  

Barria seems like a 4/5 type in that his command isn't what it needs to be.  Certainly he's not a finished product.  

Who knows how many innings Ohtani is going to give you next year.  But my guess is about 120 max.  

you can't count on Meyer.  Felix Pena is better for the pen.  Suarez and Canning are rookies so even though they are good, we can definitely expect growing pains.  

They might not even keep Shoe and of course Ramirez is going to be out for the year.  

I see a lot of this year happening again.  But what I don't want is 180ip from a Nolasco type with an era around 5.  

I wrote about innings limits in the Primer so the fact that Skaggs and Heaney are getting tired around these numbers isn't at all surprising it was a concern heading into the season.

The good news is that they should be ready for a full season in 2019.

However I agree that the rotation is a big concern and represents a likely area for Eppler to upgrade via free agency or trade.

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1 hour ago, Scotty@AW said:

 I think anyone expecting this team to spend money this off-season is going to be disappointed with the outcome. 

Position Player Openings: Either 2B or 3B, part time 1B/DH, and utility infielder.

Internal Replacements: 3B Taylor Ward (moves Cozart to 2B), INF Jose Miguel Fernandez, INF David Fletcher, INF Luis Rengifo, 1B Matt Thaiss.

This team isn't going to full on block the first youth movement they've had in 7 years with pricey free agents, only to limit their ability to retain Mike Trout.

Starting Rotation: Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney, Barria, Tropeano, Pena, McGuire, Canning, Suarez.

That rotation has "injury history/unproven" stamped right on its forehead. But with that many options and that much upside, the most you'll see Eppler do is bring us a backend workhorse a la Blanton/Nolasco.

The bullpen has never been something Eppler believed in spending money on. So now we have Robles, Cole, Jerez and Buttrey added to the depth chart.

Now mix in Alex Meyer, JC Ramirez and Blake Wood, all of which are out of options, and the return of Kenyan Middleton, plus whatever rule 5 reliever Eppler takes.

That's a crap ton of relievers to choose from, and they are all inexpensive. It's Eppler's dream.

This team isn't spending money this offseason. They're gearing up to offer Trout an extension that exceeds lesser players free agent contracts (Machado and Harper), to keep him an Angel for the rest of his career.

I agree with this sentiment, but you have some details wrong. A few points.

1) C is an opening. Rookies Briceno and Arcia are not necessarily the only guys they carry at C. Kruger is not likely to be ready for at least another full season in the minors, and even then, he probably starts as a backup.

2) Part time 1B is the opening. The DH is filled by Ohtani and Pujols, if both are healthy. 2B is likely Cozart. 3B is Ward. Util is Fletcher. Thaiss could fill the part time 1B role, but so could JMF. All will be up and down, as they learned their lesson this season about not having optionable players.

3) Trout already makes $34 M a season. What do you think he is going to command? How does adding more money with established free agents affect what they can offer Trout? It would affect how much they offer guys like Skaggs, but not Trout. How much more will they have to pay him? He's not a rookie level guy under control, making 500k that they now have to budget for. Yes his AAV contract is only $24 per season, but the CBP payroll (luxury tax) is going up. In 2021, it's $210 M. His AAV may be 40, which is a lot, but inflation.

4) McGuire doesn't belong on this list. They need depth. He's not been good. Adding one quality 180 IP starter goes along way. Meyer should be here, they look at Meyer as a starter, even if people believe he should be a pen arm.

5) Wood is a FA, and had TJ surgery end of May begining of June. Minimum recover time he'd be ready by maybe July? Late June? Most likely he's out for 2019. JC Ramirez is not going  to be tendered, as he also had TJ surgery. Now he had it a little closer to the beginning of the season, but he'd not be ready until May at the earliest and more likely August or he's out for 2019. Middleton had TJ Surgery on the same timeline as Wood, but he's not a FA, so he's going to be on the 60-Day DL the entire season, and ready for 2020.

6) Don't forget Parker, Alvarez, Bedrosian, whom all should be back. Adding one legit FA reliever is possible.

Lastly, see my Trout point above. He is currently the highest paid player in baseball, even if they give him an AAV raise from 24M to 40M, while keeping his overall number slightly higher that the equivalent of him adding Jim Johnson's money. It's not a big deal. My estimate is that Harper signs for a one year deal at 35M in Washington, because Machado is clearly the #1 FA on the market. Machado gets 330/10. Besting the largest number contract and highest AAV. Then they can try to add 10 years to Trout's deal in the high 300's or max 400M.

Most of Trout's money will be back loaded, where he may near $45M per season in 2030. But for 2021/2022/2023, he'll make close to what he makes now.

Maybe it's 2 additional years at 35M, 2 years at 37.5, 2 years at 40M, 2 years at 42.5 M, 2 years at 45M. 10 years/400 M.

That's a lot of money, but it's not a lot of additional AAV money. 14% of the AAV payroll, but nearly 20% of the actual payroll. at 40M AAV, he'll stay at 20% of the payroll. Which is totally manageable.

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

I would settle for Pujols not retiring if the Angel ownership and management decide to put enough other talent on the field around him to make his performance irrelevant.

To do that, they first have to decide his contract is not a reason to not address other needs.

This pretty much sums up the entire thread, except for the pitching options of course.  If Scioscia stays, Pujols will remain a MOTO hole.  Is it possible to make a MOTO hole irrelevant, one that can't run even when he gets on base?   Highly doubtful.    

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the system still lacks upper minor SP depth big time.  

There is zero doubt Canning and Suarez factor in to the major league rotation next year.  Your next best depth option is Luis Pena who has been fairly erratic as a starter and probably profiles in the pen.  Guys like Osmer Morales, Ivan Pineyro and Dylan Unsworth are not likely and should not be in the future plan other than to fill out AAA rosters.  

At AA, you've got Joe Gatto who's also likely a future reliever and then there's Jose Rodriguez and Jesus Castillo.  Also likely minor league roster filler.  Beasley might have some potential to be on the depth chart next year.  

Then at A+ you've got guys like Matt Ball, Simon Mathews, Luis Madero, who might have some potential but aren't anyone to be counted on next year nor are they expected to be anything more than back end guys or pen depth.  Sandoval is the most promising and likely ready for AA which means AA/AAA next year and possible call up for 2019.  So he's on the chart.  

But right now I'm not overly bullish about our SP for 2019.  

 

 

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4 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

I would hope that he would re-sign Trout, even if going just a few million over.

My point is that "the right guy" is generally understood to be the player that takes your team from contender to playoff threat. That guy is already here, his name is Mike Facking Trout, and he's the best player on the planet. 

All evidence indicates the luxury tax is the hard cap for Arte. He's the owner and that's his prerogative, but don't give me this "right guy" bullshit.

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18 minutes ago, Jobu said:

My point is that "the right guy" is generally understood to be the player that takes your team from contender to playoff threat. That guy is already here, his name is Mike Facking Trout, and he's the best player on the planet. 

All evidence indicates the luxury tax is the hard cap for Arte. He's the owner and that's his prerogative, but don't give me this "right guy" bullshit.

Mike Trout is here and obviously is not enough.  Trout could put up another 10 WAR season and this team isn't going anywhere when it has 3 or 4 holes in the offensive lineup and not enough frontline pitching.

Nobody nobody is arguing that a strategic "right fit" (the right guy that fits the teams exact needs) is superior to Mike Trout.  Nobody.

Mike Trout is the highest paid player in baseball.  He is getting his now, and will get his in his next deal.  The Angels can keep him grossly compensated and still be under the luxury tax with specific needs.

The context of the common question to Arte has never been about Trout.  It has been about making a different large financial commitment that takes them over the luxury tax IF that player is the right fit.

I really don't know how you confuse this with Mike Trout being "the guy" with the Angels.

 

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@Dochalo, neither Skaggs nor Heaney have pitched a lot of innings over the last couple years so all things considered I’m very pleased with their performances this year. I’m reasonably optimistic we can expect improvement over150-180 innings next year. 

@Stradling, you’re being a bit selective about comparing Machado and Upton. Upton is pretty much established as a 3-4 WAR player, what Fangraphs calls a “Good Player.” Some years he’s above that, some below, but it evens out. Machado, on the other hand, is on pace for his third 6+ WAR season in four years, which makes him (what Fangraphs would call) an MVP caliber player. I see him more as a “borderline MVP,” but he’s still among the dozen or so best position players in the game.

As for pursuing him, I’m mixed. On one hand I’m big on the youth movement and both want to see what Ward/Fletcher/Rengifo can do; on the other, Machado—as a superstar in his mid-20s—is exactly the type of player you invest big on.

That said, for me it is contingent on whether or not he’s ok to play 3B. I’m guessing he’ll get an offer to play SS somewhere so this is probably all a moot point as the Angels won’t get rid of the best defensive shortstop since Ozzie Smith.

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2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

@Dochalo, neither Skaggs nor Heaney have pitched a lot of innings over the last couple years so all things considered I’m very pleased with their performances this year. I’m reasonably optimistic we can expect improvement over150-180 innings next year. 

@Stradling, you’re being a bit selective about comparing Machado and Upton. Upton is pretty much established as a 3-4 WAR player, what Fangraphs calls a “Good Player.” Some years he’s above that, some below, but it evens out. Machado, on the other hand, is on pace for his third 6+ WAR season in four years, which makes him (what Fangraphs would call) an MVP caliber player. I see him more as a “borderline MVP,” but he’s still among the dozen or so best position players in the game.

As for pursuing him, I’m mixed. On one hand I’m big on the youth movement and both want to see what Ward/Fletcher/Rengifo can do; on the other, Machado—as a superstar in his mid-20s—is exactly the type of player you invest big on.

That said, for me it is contingent on whether or not he’s ok to play 3B. I’m guessing he’ll get an offer to play SS somewhere so this is probably all a moot point as the Angels won’t get rid of the best defensive shortstop since Ozzie Smith.

I know I am being selective, and if I’m being honest I don’t know how the conversation got there, but I think it had to do with someone questioning his road OPS.  There is a world of difference in hitting in Anaheim versus Baltimore I would assume.  If he is willing to play 3rd base and if it doesn’t cost us Trout I would be ok with us signing him.  But if his Road OPS is what we could expect from him, then I am thinking there will be a ton of guys on here very disappointed with him since quite a few guys on here hate Upton and his price tag.  

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26 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Mike Trout is here and obviously is not enough.  Trout could put up another 10 WAR season and this team isn't going anywhere when it has 3 or 4 holes in the offensive lineup and not enough frontline pitching.

Nobody nobody is arguing that a strategic "right fit" (the right guy that fits the teams exact needs) is superior to Mike Trout.  Nobody.

Mike Trout is the highest paid player in baseball.  He is getting his now, and will get his in his next deal.  The Angels can keep him grossly compensated and still be under the luxury tax with specific needs.

The context of the common question to Arte has never been about Trout.  It has been about making a different large financial commitment that takes them over the luxury tax IF that player is the right fit.

I really don't know how you confuse this with Mike Trout being "the guy" with the Angels.

 

I'm not confused. Here's the context: Angels need 6 "right guys" and Arte hasn't gone over the luxury tax since 2004. His answer is disingenuous.

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5 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

 I think anyone expecting this team to spend money this off-season is going to be disappointed with the outcome. 

Position Player Openings: Either 2B or 3B, part time 1B/DH, and utility infielder.

Internal Replacements: 3B Taylor Ward (moves Cozart to 2B), INF Jose Miguel Fernandez, INF David Fletcher, INF Luis Rengifo, 1B Matt Thaiss.

This team isn't going to full on block the first youth movement they've had in 7 years with pricey free agents, only to limit their ability to retain Mike Trout.

Starting Rotation: Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney, Barria, Tropeano, Pena, McGuire, Canning, Suarez.

That rotation has "injury history/unproven" stamped right on its forehead. But with that many options and that much upside, the most you'll see Eppler do is bring us a backend workhorse a la Blanton/Nolasco.

The bullpen has never been something Eppler believed in spending money on. So now we have Robles, Cole, Jerez and Buttrey added to the depth chart.

Now mix in Alex Meyer, JC Ramirez and Blake Wood, all of which are out of options, and the return of Kenyan Middleton, plus whatever rule 5 reliever Eppler takes.

That's a crap ton of relievers to choose from, and they are all inexpensive. It's Eppler's dream.

This team isn't spending money this offseason. They're gearing up to offer Trout an extension that exceeds lesser players free agent contracts (Machado and Harper), to keep him an Angel for the rest of his career.

If Cozart is even ready to play by opening day, i think he will be only at 2b, only because of arm strength after surgery. If Calhoun can hit close to how he is currently hitting, he will remain in rf.. Position wise, that leaves 3b and catcher as the holes to fill. Unless Ohtani undergoes TJS. then we will probably see Thaiss at first with AP back to dh. This is why i would like to have Thaiss and Ward getting ab's  now, to see how they might pan out. I expect the pen to be better next season. It is the starting rotation that needs durable warm bodies. I don't expect Meyer to ever start again. If he is lucky, he might find a rp spot. But not counting on it. My gut tells me Ohtani will miss all of next season {TJS}. And we can expect more of the same from Skaggs, Heaney, Tropeano and Richards, if they re-sign him. About 50/50 from them . 50% pitching and 50% of the time on the dl. So they need starting pitching in a bad way. And it will be very expensive to acquire in terms of money or prospects.

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If the Halos sign Machado for 30m per and give Trout an extension for 37m per and give simmons an extension of 25m per.

2019 - 130mil to 6 players and if you add Kole it'll be 140m to 7

2020 - 140mil to 6 players with Kole gone.  If we exercise kole's options it's 155m to 7 players.  Last year for Skaggs

2021 - 148mil to 5 players assuming no more kole or cozart. Last year for Heaney.  Ohtani's first year of arb.  

2022 - pujols 30m drops off and it's the last year of upton so about 125m to 4 players.  

 So it's certainly doable as long as your prospects pan out and Machado is the right guy.  

the other assumptions are that you pull some starting pitching out of thin air and it stays healthy and that you piecemeal a pen every year and it stays healthy.  

where it gets a bit dicey is 2021 when you have to figure out how to keep skaggs if he's worth it and then the next year you have to decide on heaney.  

Maybe you can cut JC Ram and sign him to a 2/4 deal with an option.  

Or grab GRich for 2/8 plus an option.  

I would also consider trying to buy out a year of two of FAcy from Heaney and Skaggs to keep the rotation intact as much as possible.  

then you'd need to trade some of your position player prospect surplus for pre-arb pitching which is going to cost a boatload in prospect currency.  

You also need a catcher which means you are likely committing to a defense only cheap option or minor league platoon.  

Another possible scenario to shed $$ is to trade Cozart to anyone that would take him.  

I am a bit nervous about the lack of pitching depth in order to support such a move that would take away a ton of payroll flexibility.  

Of course this is all contingent on Machado wanting to play 3b AND him wanting to come here.  

It bodes well that his dog's name is Kobe.  

Another positive is that he doesn't cost you a pick.  

A final positive is that he'll be 30 for the start of the 2023 season having already been though 4 yrs of what will likely be a 9-10 year deal.   He'll probably have about 5-6 for 170-200 left at that point.  So if something goes wrong with the rest of the team, he still might be tradeable assuming he keeps up his own production.  

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We’re trying to be competitive in 19’, why are people suggesting a trade of Calhoun?  Clearly he’s figured out his issues and then some.  The guy has been hitting like a MOTO type of guy and we’ll need that and his defense in right field.  

Im all for the Adell hype but let’s let him develop and get promoted when he’s ready and not a minute sooner.

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