"The Root of the Angels' Problems..."

[mulwin444]

In another thread, Jeff Fletcher stated: "The root of the Angels' problems is they ignored the farm system from about 2010-2015".

While that may seem obvious to some, I found it interesting how quickly a team that had what was considered a top 10 (at least) farm system a decade ago could see it all disappear.

So, what happened prior to 2010? 

In 2009, we had one of the greatest 1st rounds you could want.  With back-to-back picks in the 1st round (thanks to KRod and Teixeira signing with a couple of NY teams), Angels selected Randal Grichuk (8.1 WAR) and Mike Trout (62 WAR), which was followed by supplemental 1st round picks of Tyler Skaggs (2.8 WAR) and Garrett Richards (7.4 WAR).  On top of that embarrassment of riches, they drafted Patrick Corbin (11 WAR) in the 2nd round.   They essentially nailed of 5 of their first 6 picks if you go by the idea that you are drafting with the hope of selecting future MLB starters one day.  At this point, while Tony Reagins was entering his 2nd year as General Manager, Eddie Bane was running the drafts and, wow, it couldn't have worked out better.

2010: After 2009, though, things changed.  Per some peeps here, the 2010 draft, which would have been directed by Eddie Bane, was usurped by Tony Reagins, and the draft philosophy changed.  This was significant because the Angels, like 2009, had 5 picks in the 1st round and, with another strong draft, could essentially cement the foundation of their farm for the next 2-3 years.  However, what happened was anything but a success.  The Angels selected Kaleb Cowart (-0.4 WAR), Cam Bedrosian (0.5 WAR), and three guys that never made it to the majors in Chevy Clarke, Taylor Lindsey, and Ryan Bolden.  Clarke ended up in the Independent league and is currently a teammate of 53 year old Rafael Palmeiro on the Cleburne Railroaders, Lindsey was traded for Huston Street and his last season was 2016, and Ryan Bolden was tragically killed soon after retiring.  On a positive note, in the 8th round, they selected future starting right fielder Kole Calhoun

Possible alternatives that could have been drafted: Mike Foltynewicz (2.5 WAR), Christian Yelich (22.2 WAR), Aaron Sanchez (9.3 WAR), Noah Syndergaard (11.6 WAR), Taijuan Walker (6.0 WAR), Nick Castellanos (2.9 WAR)

2011: After the 2010 draft, Eddie Bane left the organization and, in contrast of the previous two seasons, the Angels only had 1 pick in the first two rounds due to losing their 2nd round pick with the Scott Downs (0.4 WAR in three seasons with the Angels) signing.  Their loan pick?  C.J. Cron (4.2 WAR) at the 17th overall.  The only other notable pick from that draft was Mike Clevinger (6.5 WAR) in the 4th round.  Fun fact: Clevinger was traded in the summer of 2014 by then GM Jerry Dipoto for 29 year old reliever, Vinne Pestano.  Clevinger is currently a fixture in the Indians rotation, while Vinnie lasted one more season in the MLB

Possible alternatives: Tyler Anderson (8.1 WAR), Kolten Wong (9.7 WAR), Jackie Bradley Jr (12.3 WAR), Michael Fulmer (9.9 WAR), Trevor Story (9.3 WAR), Blake Snell (6.1 WAR).  

2012: So, yeah, 2012 happened..this was Dipoto's first season as GM of the Angels and he and Arte decided to go balls-deep into Free Agency signing by signing Albert Pujols (yeah, I know) and CJ Wilson, meaning they did not have a draft pick until the 3rd round.  In that round they selected R.J. Alvarez (-0.6 WAR) whose only contribution to the Angels turned out to be being included in a trade for Huston Street.

Possible alternatives from the first three rounds: Michael Wacha (7.4 WAR), Marcus Stroman (10.6 WAR), Zach Eflin (1.6 WAR), Jose Berrios (3.3 WAR), Daniel Robertson (3.3 WAR), Stephen Piscotty (5.3 WAR), Mitch Haniger (6.3 WAR), Joey Gallo (4.0 WAR), Lance McCullers (5.6 WAR), Alex Wood (11.7 WAR), Edwon Diaz (4.4 WAR).

2013: Like a moth to a flame, Free Agents beckoned Dipoto again and we signed stable genious Josh Hamilton to a 5 year deal that in no way sucked.   As a result, the Angels didn't have a pick until the 2nd round but, oh, what a pick it was: Hunter Green.  Green, a 17 year old southpaw, pitched a total of 8 G (7 GS) for the Angels' rookie level team in AZ walking more than a struck out, soon after retiring due to vague injuries and general disinterest.  Other notable Angels names from that draft: Kenyan Middleton in the 3rd round and Michael Hermosillo  in the 28th round.

Possible alternatives: Aaron Judge (12.8 WAR), Sean Manaea (7.4 WAR), Corey Knebel (4.1 WAR)

2014: This draft, Dipoto actually had a draft pick to work with and it is hard to argue with his choice: Sean Newcomb (2.8 WAR).  Some other names from that draft you might recognize: Joey Gatto, Jake Jewell, Bo Way, Zack Houchins.

Possible alternative: Matt Chapman (9.3 WAR)

2015: Fresh off a 98 win season, and first round playoff sweep, things appeared to stable and ascending in Anaheim...little did we know that we'd be just months away from a Jerry Dipoto bitch-fit which would include a power-play ultimatum, a swift middle-finger from Arte, Scioscia and the players, and Jerry taking his ball and going home.  Prior to that, though,  there was the draft.  Due to the success of the previous season, the Angels picked late and with fist-pumping resound selected catching prospect Taylor Ward.  It was hard to determine what elicited more confusion: how early in the draft he was selected, given his initial projection, or the enthusiasm in the Angels reacted to his selection.  However, despite a less than dominant start, Ward may well still be an impact pick as, since he was moved to 3B this season, he's put up .345 .453 .973 OPS in AA/AAA with a seemingly solid command of the strike zone, some newfound speed as a result of moving from the catching position, and uptick in power.  Additionally, top 100 prospect Jahmai Jones was selected in the 2nd round and current 25 man roster infielder David Fletcher (0.9 WAR) was selected in the 4th round.  Well, at least he left us something to remember him by...

Possible alternatives: Mike Soroka, Scott Kingery, Andrew Suarez

Additionally, during his tenor, Dipoto completed these transactions:

 - Tyler Chatwood (8.7 WAR after leaving Angels) for Chris Ianetta (6.2 WAR with Angels)

 - Jean Segura (16.4 WAR) for Zack Greinke (1.5 WAR with the Angels)

 - Ervin Santana (14.1 WAR since leaving Angels) for Brandon Sisk 

 - Jordan Walden for Tommy Hansen

 - Kendrys Morales for Jason Vargas 

 - Randall Grichuk and Peter Bourjos for David Freese and Fernando Salas

 - Mark Trumbo for Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago

 - Ernesto Frieri for Jason Grilli

 - Traded a lot of Rondon's for Huston Street

 - Howie Kendrick for Andrew Heaney

 - Kevin Jepsen for Matt Joyce

 (credit to "gotbeer" transaction thread : 

So, yeah, many years with missed picks, lack of picks, and trading of previously picked talent will leave you barren.

 -    

[beatlesrule]

If Arte hired smarter scouts, they would have a better farm. 

[mulwin444]

Just now, beatlesrule said:

If Arte hired smarter scouts, they would have a better farm. 

Does Arte interview each individual scout prior to hiring them?  

[DMVol]

Good take.....and add to that, for whatever reason or reasons, Reagins decided to basically sit out of the International market for several years....Inexplicable then and now....Good international signings could have, to some extent, covered up poor drafting....

[mulwin444]

1 minute ago, DMVol said:

Good take.....and add to that, for whatever reason or reasons, Reagins decided to basically stat out of the International market for several years....Inexplicable then and now....Good international signings could have, to some extent, covered up poor drafting....

Yeah, that was definitely a missing component as well that thankfully has been re-addressed under Eppler.

[WeatherWonk]

I still dont know how I feel about Dipoto's departure. This is irrespective of his performance.

If Scioscia was resisting the SABR style mantra that Dipoto was probably selling, and if Scioscia was not implementing it (which DID seem to take a while for him to embrace), and Arte backed Scioscia, then I think I would have quit, too. It would be frustrating to try and change the whole strategy of the organization and have it be ignored by the field manager.

Scioscia's contract still having another four years to go before 2015, Arte wasnt going to budge after having to eat the contract of Hambone. I remember seeing some accounts that Hambone was another ill-advised pick that Arte simply had to have. But maybe not.

However, if Hambone was Arte's latest pet project, then Dipoto faced an owner who went around him and a manager who refused to implement his vision.

Anyway, we certainly didnt draft well for a few year, there. REALLY INTERESTING WRITE-UP !!!!! I enjoyed the heck out of it.

[mulwin444]

6 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

I still dont know how I feel about Dipoto's departure. This is irrespective of his performance.

If Scioscia was resisting the SABR style mantra that Dipoto was probably selling, and if Scioscia was not implementing it (which DID seem to take a while for him to embrace), and Arte backed Scioscia, then I think I would have quit, too. It would be frustrating to try and change the whole strategy of the organization and have it be ignored by the field manager.

Scioscia's contract still having another four years to go before 2015, Arte wasnt going to budge after having to eat the contract of Hambone. I remember seeing some accounts that Hambone was another ill-advised pick that Arte simply had to have. But maybe not.

However, if Hambone was Arte's latest pet project, then Dipoto faced an owner who went around him and a manager who refused to implement his vision.

Anyway, we certainly didnt draft well for a few year, there. REALLY INTERESTING WRITE-UP !!!!! I enjoyed the heck out of it.

Yeah, I'm conflicted about Dipoto's departure as well.  The thing is we only have a narrow window into what actually happened, depending a lot on rumor and hearsay so it's hard to take a firm opinion either way...at the very least, your opinion of the result of the issue tends to fall on whether you preferred Jerry Dipoto or Mike Scioscia having more of an influence on the clubhouse.

Nothing really definitive either way...

[beatlesrule]

20 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

Does Arte interview each individual scout prior to hiring them?  

Our scouts are incompetent for the most part. Can't draft a 3rd baseman to save their life.  Look at the revolving door in LF.  The list goes on.  Arte should have realized the current ones suck and gotten new ones.  Whomever interviews the scouts needs to be replaced too.  Something needed to change and nothing has.  Yeah, Arte also made mistakes pushing for Pujols and Hamilton but those are just apart of why this team is where it is.

[mulwin444]

Just now, Vladdylonglegs said:

Don' forget Baldoquin over Vlad jr.

Oh, I haven't haha but trying to mention all of Reagins/Dipoto's crappy moves is like trying to grab a handful of sand and precariously try to prevent each grain from falling out of your grip.

[ten ocho recon scout]

15 minutes ago, WeatherWonk said:

I still dont know how I feel about Dipoto's departure. This is irrespective of his performance.

If Scioscia was resisting the SABR style mantra that Dipoto was probably selling, and if Scioscia was not implementing it (which DID seem to take a while for him to embrace), and Arte backed Scioscia, then I think I would have quit, too. It would be frustrating to try and change the whole strategy of the organization and have it be ignored by the field manager.

Scioscia's contract still having another four years to go before 2015, Arte wasnt going to budge after having to eat the contract of Hambone. I remember seeing some accounts that Hambone was another ill-advised pick that Arte simply had to have. But maybe not.

However, if Hambone was Arte's latest pet project, then Dipoto faced an owner who went around him and a manager who refused to implement his vision.

Anyway, we certainly didnt draft well for a few year, there. REALLY INTERESTING WRITE-UP !!!!! I enjoyed the heck out of it.

Theres always going to be mysteries surrounding it all. Nobody on the inside ever really came clean about what happened. Who was in charge, who wanted hamilton, etc etc etc.

I do know that sosh and dipoto hated each other. Prior to the blowup, they werent talking for a long time. A lot of tension. The blowup was over a lineup.

At the time, it was easy to blame sosh. It looked identical to the moneyball movie. But as time passed, with a step back and look at the big picture....lol....one only has to look at @mulwin444's breakdown to see what really killed the team...and it wasnt sosh's lineups.

Sosh may lose games by not starting this guy, batting this guy out of order, etc. Dipoto killed a generation. 

Its like blaming the general for losing a battle, when it was the president sending him off to war without the resources to win.

[ten ocho recon scout]

4 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Our scouts are incompetent for the most part. Can't draft a 3rd baseman to save their life.  Look at the revolving door in LF.  The list goes on.  Arte should have realized the current ones suck and gotten new ones.  Whomever interviews the scouts needs to be replaced too.  Something needed to change and nothing has.  Yeah, Arte also made mistakes pushing for Pujols and Hamilton but those are just apart of why this team is where it is.

To be fair, dont forget dipoto got rid of a ton of our long time scouts and brought in his own people. That's a GMs job, not the owner. 

He did the same thing as soon as he got to seattle....and look at their farm...

[floplag]

Im pretty sure most teams could make a similar list to be honest.  

Draft position matters.  Drafting in the top 10 is very different than not, and we for the most part have not been drafting high enough to get guys that were guarantees as some others have.  No question we made some mistakes, but i dont think thats very unique to us in that regard.  Most of those who are really good now were really bad for an extended period, Hou, Chi etc...  We have had bad years, but not what i would call an extended drought in the last decade or under Moreno period.

Dipoto traded away too much in an effort to win, its who he is, its exactly what hes doing now in Sea and i suspect they too will pay the price for it.  It didnt work out for us and i dont think it will for them either.

We made some bad signings that hurt us, that we didnt get what we expected for it. 

I dont think you can say there is any one root to our issues or what led to them, its a hydra of problems.
 

[mulwin444]

2 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Our scouts are incompetent for the most part. Can't draft a 3rd baseman to save their life.  Look at the revolving door in LF.  The list goes on.  Arte should have realized the current ones suck and gotten new ones.  Whomever interviews the scouts needs to be replaced too.  Something needed to change and nothing has.  Yeah, Arte also made mistakes pushing for Pujols and Hamilton but those are just apart of why this team is where it is.

I think it's been pretty much addressed with Eppler's hiring but I guess we'll see.  Just looking at the drafts since 2016, though, what has been available:

2016:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=craig-003wil

2017:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=burger000jak

2018:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gorman000nol

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=casas-000tri

These are just guys designated as 3B and drafted after we drafted in the 1st round after those respective years.  

[zenmaster]

Taking on all these previously injured/injury prone/once high ceiling guys is also not working out, and aren't some of them on Eppler's watch? There's no wonder why we have so many pitcher injuries when we got them all as damaged goods for a cheap price hoping they'd stay healthy.

[beatlesrule]

This is not just about Eppler. Dallas was supposed to replace Glaus.  That didn't work out and the Angels haven't replaced him since.  They tried with Figgins but he left for Seattle.  Hell, the Angels couldn't even sign Beltre even though he wanted to play here.  It's straight incompetence and that's only the black hole at 3rd.  I'm very jealous of other ORGs like the Red Sox, Yankees, Cards etc.  They have such smart people in charge and win World Series.  They knww what they're doing.  A lot of times, the Angels are running around with their heads cut off.  They've had the best player in baseball for 6 years and haven't won a damn playoff series and only got there once.  It's pathetic. Especially since the Angels play in a big market. Oh and crap on Dipoto all you want but he did get Segura back.  I was very opposed to him being traded at the time and thought it was nuts unless they resigned Grienke.  Dipoto went ahead and got back Segura like the Angels should have done.  Still haven't replaced Kendrick at 2nd and Segura could have been that replacement.  More incompetence.

[mulwin444]

7 minutes ago, floplag said:

Im pretty sure most teams could make a similar list to be honest.  

Draft position matters.  Drafting in the top 10 is very different than not, and we for the most part have not been drafting high enough to get guys that were guarantees as some others have.  No question we made some mistakes, but i dont think thats very unique to us in that regard.  Most of those who are really good now were really bad for an extended period, Hou, Chi etc...  We have had bad years, but not what i would call an extended drought in the last decade or under Moreno period.

Dipoto traded away too much in an effort to win, its who he is, its exactly what hes doing now in Sea and i suspect they too will pay the price for it.  It didnt work out for us and i dont think it will for them either.

We made some bad signings that hurt us, that we didnt get what we expected for it. 

I dont think you can say there is any one root to our issues or what led to them, its a hydra of problems.
 

Well, it was multifaceted, I just focused on the draft because that is usually where you build your farm.  There was a lot of risk taking that didn't pay off: we signed Pujols, Wilson and Hamilton and that didn't pay off with multiple playoff appearances leaving us with a fat bill and shallow returns...trades that were made didn't return value...we exited the international market and, when we re-entered, we blew our nut on Baldoquin, while taking us out of the market for a bit.

It was a 6 season collective shit-storm

[eaterfan]

I think the root of the problem is a little bit more troubling. Who did the Angels draft from 2005-2008? 

[floplag]

22 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

Well, it was multifaceted, I just focused on the draft because that is usually where you build your farm.  There was a lot of risk taking that didn't pay off: we signed Pujols, Wilson and Hamilton and that didn't pay off with multiple playoff appearances leaving us with a fat bill and shallow returns...trades that were made didn't return value...we exited the international market and, when we re-entered, we blew our nut on Baldoquin, while taking us out of the market for a bit.

It was a 6 season collective shit-storm

IDK, there are many ways to build a farm.  The draft is the obvious largest contributor, but trades can be made to affect that as well as rule 5 etc... Our trades have been sending them out, not bringing them in.  Recently we've made a couple in the opposite direction that will help.  

[Jobu]

Didn't the Angels stay out of the international market due to some fallout over a scandal?

Also, given the very clear shift in results as soon as Bane lost control and left, I've always been confused as to why he didn't land an equivalent job after. 

[UndertheHalo]

How often is a rule 5 guy a significant impact player ?  Every now and then I guess, not often. You build the farm by drafting and by trading ML assets. 

@mulwin444 mapped it out pretty clearly.  They traded away a bunch of the better prospects.  They signed FA so lost draft picks.  And when they did get a shot at the draft they fu*cked up.  This was year or over year over year.  Mike Trout made our floor really high.  That’s what stands out to me.  It’s sort of incredible we weren’t competeting for the worst record in some these recent seasons.  

Edited August 3, 2018 by UndertheHalo

[UndertheHalo]

4 minutes ago, Jobu said:

Didn't the Angels stay out of the international market due to some fallout over a scandal?

Also, given the very clear shift in results as soon as Bane lost control and left, I've always been confused as to why he didn't land an equivalent job after. 

Ya I’m not super familiar with this story but I think one of our international guys was shady AF.  Scared Arte out for years.  Not great. 

[Docwaukee]

nice job @mulwin444

the lack of intl presence is what I feel tops the list.  almost completely ignoring 1/3rd of the player pool for 5-7 years and then getting put into the penalty box due to baldoquin.  Imagine is we gave away 3 of our top ten picks every year for 7 years.  Plus, that was during a time where the financial rules were more lax and big market teams could outspend to grab the best players.  Something the Yankees, Rangers, Cubs and a few other teams did well.  

then the draft strategy of high floor  or just really shitty drafts  

trading rentals for short term players

then the lack of picks (-1 in 2011, -2 in 2012, -1 in 2013).  There is probably 2 major leaguers in there that we missed out on at best.  

2010 sucked, but there wasn't a ton of talent in that draft.  Odds are we could have hit on at least one solid major leaguer and didn't.  But in the end, we're talking about missing out on one player really when you look at what was available.  

Reagins actually had a few nice transactions under his belt until the Kazmir trade.  Then Fuentes happened and Arte went into a hard court press and Reagins either lost his way under the pressure or Arte just took over.  Then he let Vlad go for Matsui, traded for Haren, traded for Wells.  And then the perception became that he was a fish among sharks.  

Billy has done a solid job.  Especially at accumulating upside talent in our minor league system.  But his inability to judge short term major league players - whether via trade or FA contract - has hurt.   

poor performance and/or a lack of talent has been a major factor for the mlb club the last 4 years, but make no mistake that injuries have been catastrophic.  The lack of minor league depth to make up for those injuries has also been a killer.  

We are just now, finding our way around that to some degree, but not all the way by any stretch.  

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, beatlesrule said:

If Arte hired smarter scouts, they would have a better farm. 

We had great scouts.... Jerry replaced them all with his lackeys

[mulwin444]

5 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

I think the root of the problem is a little bit more troubling. Who did the Angels draft from 2005-2008? 

2005: We signed Orlando Cabrera and the Red Sox got our pick which they used to draft Jacoby Ellsbury (31.1 WAR) and, with our supplemental 1st round pick, we chose Trevor "Bozo" Bell (-1.3 WAR) when we could have had Clay Buchholz (16.3 WAR) or Jed Lowrie (16.3 WAR).  We selected P.J. Phillips in the 2nd round.

2006: We selected Hank Conger (2.1 WAR) late in the 1st round but there wasn't much else available the rest of the round.  We lost our 2nd round pick with the Hector Carrasco signing.  

2007: We lost our pick to the Rangers for the Gary Matthews Jr signing and lost 2nd round pick for the Justin Speier signing...we picked Jon Bachanov late (56th) in the supplemental round.  We picked Matt Harvey in the 3rd round who didn't sign obviously.

2008: We lost our pick to the Twins for signing Torii Hunter.  We picked Tyler Chatwood in the 2nd round.

Not pretty...

[Docwaukee]

19 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

I think the root of the problem is a little bit more troubling. Who did the Angels draft from 2005-2008? 

that was significant as well

2005 - peter bourjos, trevor bell, sean o'sullivan

2006 - hank conger, jordan walden

2007 - john bachanov, an unsigned matt harvey, andrew romine

2008 - chatwood, will smith, michael kohn, johnny hellweg.  

That is literally on major leaguer, a bench guy and a couple relievers from 4 drafts in a row.