Tough Decision Time on Ohtani ?

[UndertheHalo]

2 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Teams had 25 chances to draft Mike Trout before the Angels drafted him. Where were all the scouts at then.

Lol what about all the scouts that have obsessed over him since he was like 14.  Did all these guys fail to identify the fatal mechanical flaws in his swing over the last 10 years and a billlion AB’s that Jeff Passans guys identified in 15 in February and March.  

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

Scouts may have seen only 14 plate appearances from Ohtani but they have a catalogue of millions of swings spread over thousands of players to draw comparisons to. If they are saying what they have seen comps with players not ready for MLB major league play the butt hurt is coming from you guys. 

Ohtani looks over matched right now, two weeks into play. So do many other players that we know have MLB skills. I think the difference is the other players know where they need to be to hit at this level, Ohtani knows where he needs to be to hit in Japan. There is a gap he will need to fill in. 

This is a very reasonable take.

We all want Ohtani to come in and dominate in both phases of the game, but as I said earlier, he's only 23 and is adjusting to an entirely new life - new league, new country, new culture.  That's a lot for a 23 year old kid to take in.  I have faith we will reign in his talent and see a star-level player, but to expect him to start off like that is extremely optimistic.  Give him time and be patient.  He may take his lumps and get knocked around early on as a pitcher, and K a lot early on as a hitter, but give him time, experience, and coaching, and he should be good to go in the not so distant future.

[stormngt]

3 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

I wasn’t aware the Scioscia made roster decisions 

I have no idea the intent of your smart ass comment.  I just was quoting Scioscia from almost 12 years ago.  

Now to your comment....yes Sciosvus doesn't make roster decisions but he certainly would know the reasoning behind Stoneman decision to send Weaver down.  Also it was clear his comments were just spin for the media.   

[UndertheHalo]

Everyone should absolutely temper their optimism about what he’ll do as a hitter.  This is reasonable for many reasons.  He does have a long swing, he didn’t see a lot of pitching inside, he hasn’t played a lot of baseball in the last 12 months etc.  This was all true on the day that Ohtani chose the Angels.  The first two weeks of spring training really doesn’t change anything about the potential of a baseball player that has been scouted probably as thoroughly as any human being on the planet.  Jeff Passan is a dishonest joke trying to make an imaginary disaster so he can write articles.  He’s a shit baseball writer. 

[notherhalo]

Even if he's a below average hitter - is it an upgrade over Pujols?

[John Taylor]

He is still classified as an MLB prospect. He is much younger than the other players who have come over from Japan. I didn't expect him to come in and turn into Mike Trout on the bat, and Justin Verlander on the mound this season. We aren't paying him very much so I am tempering my expectations this season. I'll be happy if he turns out to be a solid pitcher, and if he can hit then that is a bonus, but I am primarily hoping he turns into a top of the rotation pitcher first.

[Stradling]

46 minutes ago, stormngt said:

I have no idea the intent of your smart ass comment.  I just was quoting Scioscia from almost 12 years ago.  

Now to your comment....yes Sciosvus doesn't make roster decisions but he certainly would know the reasoning behind Stoneman decision to send Weaver down.  Also it was clear his comments were just spin for the media.   

Also to pretend Scioscia doesn’t have input is completely ridiculous.  

[101halo]

1 hour ago, UndertheHalo said:

Lol what about all the scouts that have obsessed over him since he was like 14.  Did all these guys fail to identify the fatal mechanical flaws in his swing over the last 10 years and a billlion AB’s that Jeff Passans guys identified in 15 in February and March.  

This is a good point. To be fair, some scouts did have these concerns about his bat before he signed, but "concerns" vs "can't hit" is a huge logical jump in so few spring PAs. 

[stormngt]

18 minutes ago, SuperTroopers said:

Also to pretend Scioscia doesn’t have input is completely ridiculous.  

I never said that either.  However ultimate decision was Stoneman.  Why the hell are debating this?  

[101halo]

1 minute ago, stormngt said:

I never said that either.  However ultimate decision was Stoneman.  Why the hell are debating this?  

You two need to get over the past, should head to Del Taco to seal the deal and move on. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

Pujols is back to his St. Louis standard.

[Stradling]

17 minutes ago, stormngt said:

I never said that either.  However ultimate decision was Stoneman.  Why the hell are debating this?  

I was agreeing with you

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

Pujols the track star scores from second on a single.

[Blarg]

2 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Teams had 25 chances to draft Mike Trout before the Angels drafted him. Where were all the scouts at then.

Concentrating on the Sunbelt states where most of MLB talent comes from.

But Trout and Ohtani are not a valid comparison. Scouts watching Trout were trying to determine his draft position and prospect value for future MLB promotion. Scouts evaluating Ohtani are determining if his swing plays now at the MLB level. 

[laagamer]

17 hours ago, disarcina said:

I wouldn't consider Ohtani staying in Tempe for a prolonged Spring Training a demotion 'to the minors' - I consider a healthy alternative to placing a 23 year old kid with the hopes of an entire country on his shoulders and the interest of an entire MLB nation and associated media -- time to make what has to be just an unbelieveable pressure packed adjustment for a somewhat introverted, not that socially aware, kid.  It's asking a lot.

A month plus with daily workouts and some simulated games pitching in Tempe may allow him to have a better debut and actually increase his confidence level - which is about half the battle.

I feel for the kid - this ST can't be easy.  I think of Bobby Bonds "the next Willie Mays'; Bobby Murcer "the next Mickey Mantle' and for Ohtani in this day and age and everything else -- it has to be a thousand times worse that it was for those guys.

You can make it sound as bleeding heart as you want, they're not going to start him anywhere but the big time. 

[laagamer]

5 hours ago, WeaverFever said:

It seems like everyone else wants to see him fail. 

Ya, fuck that guy /s

[Angelsjunky]

Sometimes what happens to highly lauded prospects is that they get so hyped and fold under expectations, then people forget about them and the pressure lessens and they start to blossom. Look at Byron Buxton, for instance, who had a mini-breakout year last year and, I think, is going to have a big breakout in 2018.

Ohtani's problem is that the pressure isn't going to lessen, at least not this year. But the positive side is that he was under the limelight already in Japan.

It is really quite simple: He just needs time to adjust. He's going to do just fine, and he'll do just fine this year. Let's not draw conclusions after a dozen at-bats and a few micro-starts.

My "floor" prediction would be something like .250/.300/.450 and a 3.50-4.00 ERA. Ceiling and the sky's the limit, but I see his absolute potential at his peak being something like .300/.400/.550 and a sub-2.50 ERA. My actual prediction for 2018 is probably something like .270/.340/.480 with a 3.20 ERA.

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, SuperTroopers said:

I was agreeing with you

My bad

[JustATroutFan]

We're talking about Ohtani not doing well as a hitter in like what!? 12 at bats? Small sample size, just like the postseason. Going to need much more than something like 12 at bats to have a chance at judging someone. 

[101halo]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Sometimes what happens to highly lauded prospects is that they get so hyped and fold under expectations, then people forget about them and the pressure lessens and they start to blossom. Look at Byron Buxton, for instance, who had a mini-breakout year last year and, I think, is going to have a big breakout in 2018.

Ohtani's problem is that the pressure isn't going to lessen, at least not this year. But the positive side is that he was under the limelight already in Japan.

It is really quite simple: He just needs time to adjust. He's going to do just fine, and he'll do just fine this year. Let's not draw conclusions after a dozen at-bats and a few micro-starts.

My "floor" prediction would be something like .250/.300/.450 and a 3.50-4.00 ERA. Ceiling and the sky's the limit, but I see his absolute potential at his peak being something like .300/.400/.550 and a sub-2.50 ERA. My actual prediction for 2018 is probably something like .270/.340/.480 with a 3.20 ERA.

I think your prediction on his batting line is pretty close to spot on, I'd only guess that the avg is closer to .250, but same obp and slg. 

I'm thinking pitching is a big wild card, depending on how quickly he adjusts. I'm guessing it'll be either mid 2s or high 3s rather than in between, thinking he'll either come in and dominate or take a year to adjust. If you're right, I think it would be 4s in first half and 2s post ASB, rather than low 3s all year. Totally guessing, though. 

[jsnpritchett]

3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

My "floor" prediction would be something like .250/.300/.450 and a 3.50-4.00 ERA. Ceiling and the sky's the limit, but I see his absolute potential at his peak being something like .300/.400/.550 and a sub-2.50 ERA. My actual prediction for 2018 is probably something like .270/.340/.480 with a 3.20 ERA.

Only 4 pitchers in the AL had an ERA of 3.20 or lower last year.  That's a pretty aggressive prediction.

[Ohtaniland]

10 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Only 4 pitchers in the AL had an ERA of 3.20 or lower last year.  That's a pretty aggressive prediction.

I’m expecting a 2.22 era 

just like 23 year old Babe Ruth. 

[Tank]

9 hours ago, WeaverFever said:

It seems like everyone else wants to see him fail. 

of course they do because he didn't sign with their team.

[Troll Daddy]

7 hours ago, SuperTroopers said:

Also to pretend Scioscia doesn’t have input is completely ridiculous.  

Of course he has input ... he is the manager 

[disarcina]

well, let's see how the rest of the Spring goes -- very few have been able to make that lateral jump from the Japanese League right into a full time role in MLB..

 

sure, some have -- Ichiro was the most impressive and notable -- but he was already pretty much of a HOF'er in Japan by the time he came here and put up HOF numbers in MLB.

Hideo Nomo was a sensation and did quite well, both with the Dodgers and later on -- folks don't fully appreciate that Nomo had a pretty good overall career in MLB even after leaving the Dodgers and being the early sensation that he was.......He won 150-200 MLB games.

Oh well, we'll see how it all works out - I think Ohtani has the natural talent but its tough for anyone to translate talent into success....and he's doing so under some pressure packed circumstances with over the top expectations.........giving more time to make adjustments in all aspects of what he is dealing with is something I believe remains an option that should be given some considerations..........others disagree with that............that's fine.