Twins acquire Santiago

[Oz27]

5 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I'm actually looking forward to hearing it as well.  Thanks Oz.  

No probs. Just FYI, the exercise is trying to make the Angels really good again by 2020 - the last year of the Trout contract - and working out who you sell and keep to be as good as you can in 2020. Their answer was to sell practically everything (but that's partly because you're only focused on 2020 under this exercise). Some of the returns they predicted were actually pretty huge, for guys like Shoemaker, Calhoun and Bedrosian. For example, they deem Calhoun more valuable than Chris Archer.

[Lou]

8 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Before I listen to it, I will just say that I am open to having a change of opinion if I've been wrong about any of the things I've been posting last couple of days. Like if they totally contradict what I've been typing and explain the reason, I'll admit I was wrong.  After really hoping and thinking that this team was going to do what I thought was right and they didn't, I've been pretty pissed so hopefully, they can calm my fears.

Haha easy to say after we've basically been told their opinions 

; )

[Lou]

19 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Teams tend to over pay at the deadline though Blood Brother.  I listed outfielders we could sign to replace Kole in the offseason. Combine that with the prospects we'd be getting to help out the farm and it's a win-win.  None of this really matters because our owner has a different philosophy.

They overpay if the player will make a difference in their chance to advance in the postseason. Those players aren't named Santiago

[beatlesrule]

Huh? He only typed: They evaluate the trade value of every non-Trout Angel. Some results surprised me, both in suggesting I overvalue some guys and undervalue others. Some of them I think they were a fair way off on, like Tyler Skaggs.

How am I supposed to know all the players when this is all he typed?

Fine, forget Santiago. Calhoun, Shoemaker and Escobar are difference makers.

 

Edit, I just saw that he made another post.  I'm on my phone so it's not as smooth as my laptop. I didn't read his post so if it contains any spoilers I haven't seen them.

[Lou]

1 hour ago, hangin n wangin said:

Well....to be fair, those were the two of best relief pitchers in the game.

 we could have acquired some good prospects just by trading 2 OFs

 

 

trout and calhoun 

[Oz27]

3 minutes ago, Lou said:

They overpay if the player will make a difference in their chance to advance in the postseason. Those players aren't named Santiago

There is a fair bit of evidence that teams are willing to overpay generally. You may not be hoping to see Hector start a playoff game for you but most teams could really use another league average starter, especially one under club control for another full season. So I'm not sure if we limited his value by saying we need guys to fill the rotation next year (which seems so likely) or if the market just had a strange valuation of him and wasn't offering much.

[Lou]

3 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Huh? He only typed: They evaluate the trade value of every non-Trout Angel. Some results surprised me, both in suggesting I overvalue some guys and undervalue others. Some of them I think they were a fair way off on, like Tyler Skaggs.

How am I supposed to know all the players when this is all he typed?

Fine, forget Santiago. Calhoun, Shoemaker and Escobar are difference makers.

He began by saying: "The crew at Baseball Prospectus disagrees with you"

 

[beatlesrule]

6 minutes ago, Lou said:

He began by saying: "The crew at Baseball Prospectus disagrees with you"

 

About Shoemaker right? I skimmed over that post again I'm posting on my phone so I don't get to see everything as smoothly.  Well then if that's the case, Shoemaker is more valuable than you think he is and if they are Pros then you don't have to believe them but they have a podcast and get paid and we don't.

[beatlesrule]

4 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

There is a fair bit of evidence that teams are willing to overpay generally. You may not be hoping to see Hector start a playoff game for you but most teams could really use another league average starter, especially one under club control for another full season. So I'm not sure if we limited his value by saying we need guys to fill the rotation next year (which seems so likely) or if the market just had a strange valuation of him and wasn't offering much.

To play Devil's Advocate, since the Angels are not going in that direction and did not make those trades, it's impossible to say whether or not they could have gotten the same amount of talent back.  Therefore, it's easy to just type that Chapman and Miller are more valuable because Cashman actually has evidence because he made a trade to get back a lot of prospects.

[Oz27]

1 minute ago, beatlesrule said:

To play Devil's Advocate, since the Angels are not going in that direction and did not make those trades, it's impossible to say whether or not they could have gotten the same amount of talent back.  Therefore, it's easy to just type that Chapman and Miller are more valuable because Cashman actually has evidence because he made a trade to get back a lot of prospects.

Yeah, it's all speculative and we will never know because Shoemaker wasn't traded at that time. Plus the Cubs gave up a heap for Cashman and probably overpaid (but you can argue they had reason to, given the whole drought and it being the one weakness on an otherwise loaded team). Having said that, there is good reason to believe Shoemaker is worth a serious haul. On that podcast, Sam Miller at BP predicted an average team's #2, #4, #12 and #20 ... so that is a top 50 prospect, a top 100 prospect and a couple of other guys with some upside. For Chapman, the Yankees got baseball's #24, Adam Warren and two guys outside the top 100 (at least using the user-friendly mlb.com rankings).

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, beatlesrule said:

Did you see the haul that Cashman got back for 2 RP and a 39 year old DH?  Marte, Petit and Robinson would take his place. Not as good but serviceable enough for this year with the prospects helping the farm.  The offseason has some decent OF.

Did you see what those two relief pitchers cost the Yankees to flip them for minor leaguers? They spent assets both in their own farm and money to get them so it wasn't as though they were cost free. 

The Yankees gave up four minor leaguers for Chapman plus took on his $11.5 million salary. 

They signed Miller to a $36 million dollar contract two years ago. 

There is more to the Yankees trades than simply look at what they got. 

 

[Oz27]

4 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Did you see what those two relief pitchers cost the Yankees to flip them for minor leaguers? They spent assets both in their own farm and money to get them so it wasn't as though they were cost free. 

The Yankees gave up four minor leaguers for Chapman plus took on his $11.5 million salary. 

They signed Miller to a $36 million dollar contract two years ago. 

There is more to the Yankees trades than simply look at what they got. 

 

It wasn't cost free, but they ended way ahead on both deals. They got Chapman for a pretty low price (for understandable reasons) and flipped him for much more. They paid Miller a reasonable contract for 18 months and flipped him for a significant package. They're the big winners of this deadline, they killed it...unfortunately.

[laagamer]

Sup everybody. Haven't been on in a long while. 

 

Anybody care to explain exactly what the hell is going on with this trade? Am I not seeing something? 

[Docwaukee]

57 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

The crew at Baseball Prospectus disagrees with you (it starts about 27 minutes in with that specific bit at 33.45, if you want to have a listen).

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29951

Edit: That link is a really interesting thing to listen to if anyone cares. They evaluate the trade value of every non-Trout Angel. Some results surprised me, both in suggesting I overvalue some guys and undervalue others.

damn.  that was totally depressing.  I'll make a thread of it.  

[Lou]

31 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

About Shoemaker right? I skimmed over that post again I'm posting on my phone so I don't get to see everything as smoothly.  Well then if that's the case, Shoemaker is more valuable than you think he is and if they are Pros then you don't have to believe them but they have a podcast and get paid and we don't.

that's strange, when Jeff Fletcher said basically the same thing, I don't recall you guys defending his stance. 

[Mark68]

Now that I've had time to think about this trade....

 

 

...I still think it sucks. I think we all (Eppler foremost) are hoping that Meyer works out and becomes an Andrew Miller-type shutdown reliever. If he does, or becomes a decent mid-rotation starter, then this trade is a success.

 

If not, this was a horrible, very bad, no good trade.

It was a gamble, to be sure. It's like Eppler has made the typical stop-and-go play, calling a raise out of the big blind with a short stack so he could shove whatever flop appears and hoping that he doesn't get called...

[Oz27]

15 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

damn.  that was totally depressing.  I'll make a thread of it.  

Haha. I nearly did that but figured I would get roasted with "what do they know" type posts so I didn't bother. But them and other sabermetric types whose knowledge I really trust, like Joe Sheehan or even Dave Cameron, are super negative about our future. I listen and read heaps of that stuff and it's all pretty damn depressing.

[Lou]

48 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

There is a fair bit of evidence that teams are willing to overpay generally. You may not be hoping to see Hector start a playoff game for you but most teams could really use another league average starter, especially one under club control for another full season. So I'm not sure if we limited his value by saying we need guys to fill the rotation next year (which seems so likely) or if the market just had a strange valuation of him and wasn't offering much.

which teams overpaid for an average SP? 

 

[Lou]

13 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

Haha. I nearly did that but figured I would get roasted with "what do they know" type posts so I didn't bother. But them and other sabermetric types whose knowledge I really trust, like Joe Sheehan or even Dave Cameron, are super negative about our future. I listen and read heaps of that stuff and it's all pretty damn depressing.

1. the next positive comment from Cameron about the Angels will be the first

2. on July 21, 2014, Cameron said the Royals should give up on the season and be sellers at the deadline. 

[Oz27]

2 minutes ago, Lou said:

which teams overpaid for an average SP? 

 

There isn't a good comparison from this trade deadline because there wasn't really an "average" starter moved, aside from Santiago. Everyone was either significantly better or significantly worse. The Giants paid more than you would like for Mike Leake last year. Matt Garza was slightly above average when the Rangers got him but Texas gave up what was viewed at the time as a big prospect haul. There is significant evidence that teams are willing to pay much more in July than before a season, here is an example - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-attempt-to-find-the-the-market-price-for-wins-in-july/

[Lou]

I'm only concerned with this year as that is the market we are dealing in. 

20 scouts were watching Santiago's last start in person. I'm sure if any one of them thought he was as valuable as you claim, they would have offered quite a bit more. They obviously didn't. 

The Tigers were rumored to be interested in Santiago. They dropped out and ended up not trading for anyone.

I think you overvalue Santiago's worth to contending teams. Remember, a month ago most people here were clamoring for us to dump the guy. 

[Oz27]

4 minutes ago, Lou said:

I'm only concerned with this year as that is the market we are dealing in. 

20 scouts were watching Santiago's last start in person. I'm sure if any one of them thought he was as valuable as you claim, they would have offered quite a bit more. They obviously didn't. 

The Tigers were rumored to be interested in Santiago. They dropped out and ended up not trading for anyone.

I think you overvalue Santiago's worth to contending teams. Remember, a month ago most people here were clamoring for us to dump the guy. 

Yeah, but that was silly (wanting to dump him). I think the most likely thing is we artificially limited his value by saying we needed guys who could be in next year's rotation. That's only speculation, it's impossible to really know. But it's hard to imagine that was the best return we could have got in a market where we weren't putting any conditions on it. Case in point, the Padres return for Andrew Cashner was only a bit lower than we got for a significantly better pitcher.

[Lou]

yeah, you say it's silly now, but that hasn't been the case going on a year. 

ok, my last comment...

you said Garza was slightly above average at the time of him being traded to Texas. Let's take a look at his stats at that time.

6-1

3.17 era

122 era+

1.141 whip

3.10  k/bb 

in fact, he was working on his 8th consecutive season with an era+ of 100 and better.

Santiago:

10-4

4.25 era

94 era+

1.334 whip

1.88 k/bb 

 

it's not even close. 

edit: you can't begin to compare cashner's value based upon a 7 player trade. 

ok, now I'm moving on. 

Edited August 3, 2016 by Lou

[Oz27]

16 minutes ago, Lou said:

yeah, you say it's silly now, but that hasn't been the case going on a year. 

ok, my last comment...

you said Garza was slightly above average at the time of him being traded to Texas. Let's take a look at his stats at that time.

6-1

3.17 era

122 era+

1.141 whip

3.10  k/bb 

in fact, he was working on his 8th consecutive season with an era+ of 100 and better.

Santiago:

10-4

4.25 era

94 era+

1.334 whip

1.88 k/bb 

 

it's not even close. 

edit: you can't begin to compare cashner's value based upon a 7 player trade. 

ok, now I'm moving on. 

Garza wasn't a great comparison, I'll give you that. Consider that a product of the fact there are limited examples of Santiago types being moved at the deadline recently. However there are a heap of examples of established starters being traded for much more than they are seemingly worth in July, with Pomeranz and Miley being the latest examples. Pomeranz is better than Santiago and Hector is better than Miley, but my point is those are two guys the market paid a significant premium for.

As for Cashner, yes you can. After the Colin Rea debacle it ended up a five player trade with the Padres giving up Cashner and Tayron Guerrero, a pretty terrible right handed reliever with a career 1.50 WHIP in the minors. So Cashner was the bulk of the value in the final deal for the Marlins.

[Inside Pitch]

10 hours ago, Oz27 said:

We had plenty of valuable assets we chose not to sell.

None of them pending FAs.  

You're being purposely obtuse when comparing the Angels and Yankees situations..... the Yankees traded one guy under club control beyond this season -- and that guy was a RP.  Among the guys you listed by name; Calhoun -- 2020, Simmons - 2021, Shoemaker - 2021, Bedrosian - 2022, and Skaggs - 2020, all have to be viewed as core players --  it's an apples and oranges comparison.  The one guy they didn't fit the core type profile was Escobar and it's pretty obvious there wasn't the sort of interest they were hoping for -- Jeff Fletcher even commented about the "other things" possibly limiting the interest in him in the days before the deadline.  You can talk up how not moving him was a missed opportunity but it's really hard to take that seriously after you argued Trevor Gott for Escobar was a mistake and an overpay.   All the same reasoning you applied to that original stance I would assume are still in place, only now he has one less year of control.  So what changed?  If he wasn't worth Gott before, why would you suddenly argue he's worth more than that now?  

Anyway... the Yanks weren't moving guys like Gregorius or Castro, had they done those sorts of deals then the argument that the Angels failed where the Yankees succeeded has some teeth but the two situations aren't remotely similar..  In fact if you look at all the deadline deals, outside of possibly Matt Moore and his multiple team option there simply weren't any core type players with 3+ years of team control moved for prospects. 

I would have liked to see the Angels do more but whatever...  As I have said previously, at least they seem to have a plan in place.   We will find out how well that plan works out..... hopefully better than the last one.