Reasons for optimism in 2016

[howie]

While this offseason may seem like a disappointment on the surface, I think 2016 can be a surprisingly good season and I believe even the long term future is a bit more rosy than some think. Here's why:

1. Andrelton Simmons makes the pitching staff better and if he improved his hitting just a bit higher will add to the lineup too. He puts the ball in play and who knows how much Trout and Pujols will help with his hitting- there were no future HOF hitters on the Braves last year that I can see- I think it's hard to quantify how much Pujols may have helped Trout with the mental and emotional part of hitting. Also- maybe Simmons helps other players have more desire to improve defensively.

2. Pitching Depth- look at the 2002 Angels staff- Washburn, Ortiz, Appier, Lackey- none of them were really an ace- there were no 20 game winners and only Washburn, Ortiz and Appier won more than 10. I think Richards is better than all of them, Heaney improves, and if either Weaver or Wilson return to just their average seasons- then we mix and match the rest and have a healthy competition for the remaining slots on the staff. There's good reason to believe the rotation will be better than last year and you add Simmons defense to the equation and I think the pitching and defense will keep us in many more games.

3. The bullpen- I like the pickups this offseason. Assuming Street is healthy, there can be some real gems here- 2002 saw some trash heap pickups like Weber and Donnelly have career years- I think between Albuquerque, Friedrich, and both Guerras that one of them will be solid in 2016. Again, I think Simmons influence will be a big lift to the bullpen.

4. I believe in Eppler. It's hard not to be a bit jaded about the front office and Arte after the fiasco last year. But even though they didn't sign a big name- I don't see any area of the team that got worse over the offseason- the pitching staff should be healthier and deeper. The bench has been improved. The infield defense has improved overall and I believe infield hitting shouldn't be any worse than last year and has a good chance of being better. Trout and Calhoun should be just as good as last year and even though I'm not thrilled with Nava/Gentry, it will be better than last year as it can't get any worse than one of the worst LF performances ever. Catching will be improved with Perez and Soto and there's a possibility the hitting there may improve over last year. I understand not wanting to pay superstar $ for merely good players. They've made many low risk moves that may pay off in small dividends, but in areas that will solidify areas of weakness last year.

5. The farm system- ok- it's not great- but big deal- the purpose of the farm system is to make the big league club better. I believe it did that in the offseason with the Simmons trade. It would have been unlikely that either Newcomb or Ellis would contribute in 2016 with the starting pitching being such a strength. As far as the future- there are 3 players I'm keeping an eye on- Taylor Ward, Jahmai Jones and Michael Pierson. If you followed the draft last year, you probably know all about Ward and Jones, but who the heck is Michael Pierson? Well- I didn't know either until last night when I realized he led all the minors with a .395 BA. Granted it was rookie league in Orem with only 195 AB, but still- .395 is impressive. Oh, did I mention he plays 3B? I don't believe I've heard anything about him before yesterday, so it was a very nice surprise. All of these 3 are likely a couple years away, but Ward and Pierson were both college players, so maybe they'll contribute sooner than later.

I may get ripped for some of the points here, but as I've thought about the offseason, I'm excited about 2016

[laagamer]

Guys had career years in 2002.

 

And sure we can win this year if everyone decides to have career years.

 

But really what are the odds of that?  

[tomsred]

Guys had career years in 2002.

 

And sure we can win this year if everyone decides to have career years.

 

But really what are the odds of that?  

 

The odds aren't good for that no matter what team you're discussing.  I think the opening post was a valid view, and a good post. This is still a good young team, maybe not the best on paper by position, but the game isn't played that way, as you already know.  howie's post is a valid attempt to balance the the continual negative view held by other posters, after a while you can push yourself into a very negative view scratching up reasons for failure when in fact we haven't even begun Spring Training. 

[laagamer]

It is hard to stay optimistic. Good post howie.

[Troll Daddy]

Guys had career years in 2002.

And sure we can win this year if everyone decides to have career years.

But really what are the odds of that?

In 2002 it was 60/1

In 2016 it's 25/1

Same as the Royals

Edited February 12, 2016 by Troll Daddy

[NachoPop]

Looking at the reasons for optimism in 2016 are far better than criticising every move the team makes this offseason because they were not the big moves you were hoping for

[Docwaukee]

Nice post.  Pierson could be fun to follow.  I'll wait a year or two before I get excited about a 23yo in rookie ball.  

 

Simmons is gonna be a fan favorite very soon.  

 

2016 is all about how well our pitchers with potential actually live up to such.  

[Angelsjunky]

Nice post howie, good to see some optimism. A few thoughts on each of your points.

 

1. Simmons will definitely improve the pitching and, as Doc said, will be a fan favorite as soon as he makes his first diving catch and cannon throw: meaning, the first week of the season. That said, I think it is reasonable to assume that he won't be as good as Aybar with the bat. He could be, but his record suggest otherwise. Still, I hold out home that he has an offensive spike in his future.

 

2. Yes, there is some pitching depth. I am a bit worried that Heaney is going to be a bit disappointing, more of a #3-4 starter than the #2 folks are hoping for. But I think Tropeano will be a pleasant surprise, Skaggs will come back strong and determined, Richards will improve upon 2015, and Wilson will bounce back. Weaver? He's toast. If the Angels were wise they'd do a home/road platoon with him and maybe Skaggs.

 

3. I agree that the bullpen looks solid - not spectacular, but it could be pretty good. Plus the starting depth helps. I'd like to see Shoemaker turned into a long reliever.

 

4. Too soon to say either way. He's made a couple small moves that could pan out really well--e.g. Choi, Javy Guerra--but it also could be that NONE of his little moves amount to anything. Meanwhile, Newcomb develops very strong and all of a sudden Eppler's first offseason doesn't look so good. But again, it is too soon to tell.

 

5. Here's the best thing about the farm: it can't get any worse. Also, SOME ONE has to breakthrough. But yeah, I'm moderately excited about both Ward and Jones. What I'm not excited about is a 23-year old hitting .395 in Rookie ball.

 

Anyhow, all in all I think the Angel could be competitive this year, and that the franchise--while with some major issues to deal with--isn't completely beyond repair.

[Angel Oracle]

Moving Shoe to a 7th inning role in the pen could have big benefits. Not having to rely on Tossed Salad and Al Al in that role might help them in turn through less pressure.

Still need for Morin and Bedrosian to finally learn the word consistency.

[Jobu]

Who played first in Atlanta? A lot of infield defense is on the 1Bman. Simmons can pick up everything in the 714 area code and it could all be for naught if CJ Stone can't pick it.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Who played first in Atlanta? A lot of infield defense is on the 1Bman. Simmons can pick up everything in the 714 area code and it could all be for naught if CJ Stone can't pick it.

 

Is Justin Moreau still available? I wonder if both parties might agree to a 1yr $3.5m or so deal... He'd make a nice potential platoon partner with CJ. He can pick it at first when Pujols is out of the lineup as well. 

[wopphil]

Baseball is a hard game to predict. Look at last year's Nationals. They were the favorite to win the WS, and didn't even make the playoffs. The Royals, despite mediocre starting pitching, and mediocre hitting, and a solid but not spectacular Parthenon record, win the whole damn thing.

The Angels have some nice talent, but some guys will have to break through for this team to succeed. I think guys like Cron, Nava, Tropeano and Shoemaker will make or break this team. If those guys step up and the others just do their thing, the team could win 90 games.

[wopphil]

Is Justin Moreau still available? I wonder if both parties might agree to a 1yr $3.5m or so deal... He'd make a nice potential platoon partner with CJ. He can pick it at first when Pujols is out of the lineup as well.

He'd be a great pickup, but there is nowhere to put another one dimensional player.

[AngelsLakersFan]

He'd be a great pickup, but there is nowhere to put another one dimensional player.

 

You are probably right. It seems like a recurring issue with this roster. If only we could meld a couple of players into just a single player we'd be alright!

[wopphil]

You are probably right. It seems like a recurring issue with this roster. If only we could meld a couple of players into just a single player we'd be alright!

He'd make a lot of sense if we could move Cron for a useful piece, but that ain't happening.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Baseball is a hard game to predict. Look at last year's Nationals. They were the favorite to win the WS, and didn't even make the playoffs. The Royals, despite mediocre starting pitching, and mediocre hitting, and a solid but not spectacular Parthenon record, win the whole damn thing.

The Angels have some nice talent, but some guys will have to break through for this team to succeed. I think guys like Cron, Nava, Tropeano and Shoemaker will make or break this team. If those guys step up and the others just do their thing, the team could win 90 games.

 

Something that is pretty eye opening are the standard deviations on the projection systems.

 

Team player performance projections have a standard deviation of 70 runs, meaning 1/3 of the teams will under or over perform their expected batting or pitching lines by more than 70 runs.

 

In addition, a team's win loss record as predicted by those 'Parthenon' runs scored vs runs allowed estimators has a standard deviation of 7 wins.

 

Put together this means there is a 1 in 36 chance, or nearly 1 team per season who will beat their projections by more than 14 games. 

[floplag]

Anything can happen, i will always be a fan of the team and will hope for the best, but ive never been so frustrated with its outlook.  

 

I'm not down because I feel we are bad or cant compete, it isnt like we will be terrible.  I am frustrated with the team making a conscious and deliberate decision to not fix the issues when the parts were there to be had.   I am really struggling to get passed that, not gonna lie.

 

I think we will be a good team, better than 500ish, and maybe even within striking distance of a playoff berth, very much like last season.  We achieved what we did then with by and large the same problems we have today.  

 

But, it isnt just about us.  We are simply facing much better competition that we have in other years, the West is pretty stacked.  The AL in general is looking pretty tough.  Heck even our inter-league schedule looks like a monster, Cubs, Dogs, Cards, Pirates.

I honestly would not be shocked to see us finish almost anywhere in the standings from first to last, though i think realistically we are anywhere from third down and i cant find a realistic reason to expect more than that.

[wopphil]

I will say that it is far easier going into a season with few expectations. Anything good that happens is gravy.

[Homebrewer]

Simmons and Trout will make it fun to watch...and a name that hasn't been mentioned much around here might become a real difference maker, taking over as the #1 catcher...

 

Carlos Perez 

I expect a hell of a year from him

[Redondo]

I will say that it is far easier going into a season with few expectations. Anything good that happens is gravy.

 

+1

 

I'm keeping an open mind and just trying to enjoy the start of the season. Low expectations.

[DoubleOffTheWall]

These are some good reasons. I am particularly interested in seeing how this young pitching staff develops. They could be really good.

 

However, in the end, I think we are in for a rude awakening when we see the talent on some of these other teams. 

[Angel Oracle]

On the subject of who the Braves 1B is, Freddie Freeman is one of the best defensive 1B in MLB.  

 

We will find out soon enough how Pujols and Cron work with Simmons and his cannon arm. 

[UndertheHalo]

Thanks for the post, I agree in particular with your takes on Simmons. He's an excellent acquisition, even at the price we paid. The team will compete this year. The concern is mostly about what we're looking at in 3 or 4 years. It's not beyond reversing course and fixing IMO but they need to start fixing the development system now. It's gonna be a tough job but so far I like Eppler. He at least says the right things. We'll see. IMO if we aren't playing well this year we need to move guys like Richards and Calhoun even Simmons to jump start a rebuild. They should command big returns. Hoping it doesn't come to that though. I do think since we do have a mostly young core of players that there is a way out of this with good drafts and smart FA moves in 2018 in particular. Fortunately we have a little bit of time to avert what could get real ugly. My hope is the restraint with FA this year is a signal that they recognize this. Even if it was disappointing in the near term.

Edited February 12, 2016 by UndertheHalo

[Angel Oracle]

If they go back into FA in two years, and focus on those FAs not declining and not costing a draft pick, then they can make something work in the long term with player development AND contending year in and year out. 

[QuinlansMinion]

It would be hard for Pujols to help Simmons at the plate when these days Pujols himself doesnt have a clue what hes doing. I would hope Pujols stays away from the young guys instead of teaching them to be extreme pull hitters that only go for home runs.

Whatever impact Simmons has defensively is negated by the fact that we are planning to do very dumb things defensively. For some reason management is set on Escobar at 3rd where he cant play, JG at 2nd who also cant play. And while Pujols battles injuries all season, say hello to Crons horrible defense at 1st. Ive yet to see a great defense that sports 3 horrible infield defenders at premium positions.

The bullpen imo should be okay, I dont think it will cost us many games.

The rotation will likely be the bright spot of the season.

The lineup will be terrible. Trout will do all he can to save it, but in the end there is just too much mediocrity. Artes cheapness will come back to bite him in the ass when fans get bored and stop showing up mid season to watch the Angels get shut out every other night.