The SF Giants Philosophy of Success

[Angelsjunky]

The most successful franchise in the last six year is, by a long-shot, the San Francisco Giants - they've won three of the last six World Series. The next team to have three World Series titles would be the Boston Red Sox, but over twice as many years (going back to 2004).

 

Now I personally tend to prefer when a team builds from within, with a strong farm, an emphasis on international signing, savvy trading, and minimal free agent signings. By and large, big free agent contracts just don't seem to work out - at least in most cases. But certainly some teams have been able to build contenders with money - if they use that money wisely.

 

But the point of this (looong) post is to ask: How did the Giants do it? What sort of team have they fielded over the last six years and how did they build it? On the surface it is hard to characterize them over the last six years, so let's take a look at the Giants, from 2010-15.

 

• They have one superstar in Buster Posey, a homegrown talent who has totaled 29.6 fWAR over that span of time - 9th most among all major leaguers during that time and 1st among catchers by a good margin (Yadier Molina is next with 22.3).
• After Posey, there's a big drop-off to Pablo Sandoval (14.1), Hunter Pence (12.5), Brandon Crawford (12.4), and Brandon Belt (11.4) - all solid contributors and good to very good players, but no true stars.
• In terms of individual seasons by position players, the Giants have had only seven seasons of 5+ fWAR performance (what we could describe as "star caliber") - three by Posey, one each by Pablo Sandoval, Andre Torres, Aubrey Huff, and Hunter Pence. Of those seven, four have been during World Series seasons and three not.
• They've also seen 25 seasons of 2-5 fWAR position players (what we could call "Average to Very Good" players). In the World Series years, they are distributed like so: 4 in 2010, 5 in 2012, and 4 in 2014.
• Among pitchers, the highest total fWAR is Madison Bumgarner at 22.5, followed by Matt Cain (13.6) and Tim Lincecum (11.4). Bumgarner is 11th in the majors over that span of time.
• As far as single seasons go, there are six total 4+ fWAR pitching performances, only two of which were in a World Series year (both in 2010).
• Nine seasons were in the 2-4 fWAR range (which is above average to very good for a starter), six in WS years.
• Of all position players, only one regular has been part of all three WS teams: Buster Posey. Several others, including Pablo Sandoval, Hunter Pence, Brandon Belt, and Brandon Crawford, have been part of two.
• Of all pitchers, Bumgarner, Cain, and Lincecum have been part of all three.

 

The Giants present us with an odd case, because every time they won the World Series, no one expected them to win another. They were--on paper--a very good team but never a great one; their WS seasonal win totals were 92, 94, and 88. Yet from 2010 (2009, actually) they won at least 84 games in all but 2013, and somehow managed to win three World Series. In other words, they were generally good enough to compete to make the postseason and when they did, they won.

 

As far as money goes, their payrolls during the World Series years were 10th, 8th, and 7th - so they were willing to spend, but weren't among the top spenders (and less than the Angels, Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, and Tigers in all three years).

 

So how exactly did the Giants succeed? What is their "recipe for success?" Looking at the above, and the team year-to-year, it seems like a combination of things. They have a core of homegrown players--most of their best players came up through the farm--but they also supplemented with some savvy acquisitions. What about big contracts? I don't see any except for those given to home grown players. Here are the players making $10M or more in each of the three WS seasons:

 

2014: Matt Cain ($20.83M), Tim Lincecum ($17M), Hunter Pence ($16M), Buster Posey ($11.2M), Tim Hudson ($11M), Angel Pagan ($10.25M)

2012: Barry Zito ($19M), Tim Lincecum ($18.25M), Matt Cain ($15.83M), Aubrey Huff ($10M)

2010: Barry Zito ($18.5M), Aaron Rowand ($13.6M), Edgar Renteria ($10M)

 

Interestingly enough, the Giants won 2010 despite the three big contract players, all of whom were free agents and signed before the Giants got really good (Zito was signed in 2007, Rowand in 2008). The three together contributed only 3 fWAR for the over $40M they were being paid. In 2012, Zito was still on the books but not really contributing. Lincecum and Cain were homegrown, and Huff was basically done but being compensated for his excellent 2010. In 2014, all but Hudson and Pagan were homegrown talents who had come of age.

 

So here's one interesting point to consider: The Giants WS wins were not built on free agent mega-contracts; the only mega-contracts that turned out to be major contributors were homegrown talents.

 

What sort and quality of players have the Giants won with? Well as should be clear from the bulleted list above, among starting pitchers you really only have two bonafide stars in Bumgarner and Cain, and then a bunch of other starters who have contributed to much lesser degrees in Lincecum, Vogelsong, Sanchez, Hudson, and Zito. Among position players, you have just one big star in Buster Posey, a handful of very good regulars in Pence, Sandoval and Belt, and then standout seasons here and there from an assorted cast of characters--journeymen, many of them--including Pagan, Torres, Huff, Melky Cabrera, Pat Burrell, and several others, including rising star Joe Panik.

 

(I'm intentionally avoiding bullpens for the sake of relative sanity).

 

So what to make of all of this? Well, it is worth noting that like the Giants, the Royals won the World Series with a team that wasn't top-heavy with stars and/or big contracts. As did the 2002 Angels, while we're at it. Now there are a lot of other teams that have won the World Series, and many of them with big names and big contracts, bu the point is: there are many ways to build a World Series team, and not all of them require spending huge amounts of money on free agents.

 

How did the Giants do it? Well much of it has to do with team chemistry, clutch play, good management, and other factors that are hard to see in the record. All of that is very, very important. If you're a front office, you need to take that into account. But to a large degree it is also out of the front office's control. What they can do is assemble the parts; how those parts work together is up to the manager, coaches, and players.

 

It seems the Giants formula has been relatively straight-forward: Build from within with homegrown talents, and keep those talents as long as you can; supplement with free agency, but stay away from mega-contracts; also, look for veteran players coming off sub-par seasons who might surprise - e.g. Aubrey Huff - or former prospects from other teams that might need a change of scenery, e.g. Andres Torres or Ryan Vogelsong.

 

So again, the core of the team--in the "SF Giants World Series Winning Philosophy"--should be homegrown, and then supplemented through free agency and trades.

 

Another interesting thing to note is that if you look at Baseball America's farm rankings, the Giants don't stand out as particularly exceptional. From 2005 to 2008, the declined in ranking each year from #18 in 2005 to #24 in 2008. Then they jumped to #6 and #5 in 2009 and 2010, when players like Posey and Bumgarner, as well as complementary players like Crawford and Romo, came through. In other words, the Giants did have a strong farm, but only for a couple years - with a single big wave of homegrown players. From 2011 to 2015, BA has ranked the Giants no higher than #19.

 

The takeaway from that is that the farm doesn't need to rank highly every year, but what it does need to do is produce "waves" of talent every five years or so - like the wave of talent that populated the Angels contenders in the 2004-09 range.

 

Chances are the Giants won't win a 4th World Series in 2016, but they've retooled with a couple of big free agent signings in Jeff Samaridzja and Johnny Cueto, so you never know (although that goes against their previous winning formula) - and regardless, they remain the most successful franchise in baseball over the last six years, and it isn't particularly close.

 

Anyhow, that was a lot of words - but I'm hoping that it brings to light some of the elements that make a successful franchise, and I'm hoping that Eppler and Co are looking into this sort of thing. Who knows.

[HaloCory22]

Damn good write up, AJ.

[AngelsLakersFan]

If you just base success on win totals over the same time period, I'd imagine they are not at the top. The Giants have been good at being consistently 'good' over this stretch, not unlike the Angels were between 2004 and 2009, the only real difference is that the Giants, for whatever reason were a lot more fortunate in the post season. There was also a lot more competition in the AL over that time period.

 

I'd be interesting to see how many times they had starting players produce under replacement level for an entire season, and see how they addressed that in the following year.

[JAHV76]

Brian Sabean is a genius and has surrounded himself with very good baseball people.

[Jobu]

I'd be interested in seeing the roster construction and associated WARs broken down by pre-arb, arbitration or extension, and free agent. I wonder if there is anything telling about that balance.

[Angel Oracle]

The Giants mix and match players, and Bochy is a very good manager.

Plus, they normally have a decent enough farm system to make July moves.

[Ohtaniland]

Sometimes it's just to hard for the homers to admit that there are better run franchises than our own. The Giants are just making quality decisions and they've built a dynasty. Bochy has done a terrific job. They have a very nice stadium for their fans. We have 2002 vs the Giants to hang our hats on.

Edit....nice work AJ

Edited December 21, 2015 by CALZONE

[ELEVEN]

Sanity is overated. You can't ignore the bullpen when looking at those Giants teams.

Bochy knows how to handle his pitching staff.

Very good write up AJ.

[ELEVEN]

Sometimes it's just to hard for the homers to admit that there are better run franchises than our own. The Giants are just making quality decisions and they've built a dynasty. Bochy has done a terrific job. They have a very nice stadium for their fans. We have 2002 vs the Giants to hang our hats on.

I sure have a lot of hats hanging on it.

[Stradling]

I respect what the Giants have done. They are a heck of an organization, one that is consistent in their approach and throughout their system. I can't wait to have a minor league system like that again.

[mrwicked]

The Giants are just world class from top to bottom.

It's really an impressive organization.

And the best ballpark in baseball.

[QuinlansMinion]

Baseball is easy to figure out. No OBP, no rings. Everything else is hog wash.

[tdawg87]

The Giants went over the luxury tax in 2015. Might go over it for 2016 as well. Just saying.

[Chuck]

The Giants are just world class from top to bottom.

It's really an impressive organization.

And the best ballpark in baseball.

 

Agreed.

 

My favorite ballpark that I've caught at game at so far. 

[ELEVEN]

SF and Petco in Diego are my 2 favorite parks.

[Angelsjunky]

Baseball is easy to figure out. No OBP, no rings. Everything else is hog wash.

 

2014 Giants: .311 OBP (8th in NL, .312 league average)

2012 Giants: .327 OBP (4th in NL, .318 league average)

2010 Giants: .321 OBP (10th in NL, .324 league average)

 

Doesn't seem to be much of a correlation there. In two of the three WS years, the Giants were below league average. This is not to say that OBP isn't important--it is--but you can make up for it in other ways.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

Nice write up AJ!

 

 

If you were to place both organizations on either side of a mirror. You can tell the differences. Most notably the minor league system and their push at development. The core is solid not flashy and they do the little things and make the regular everyday plays with consistency.

 

We're kind of all over the map we've needed a Juggler not a Fireman running the FO in my opinion. That is based that Arte' is a fan also and wants to win and sometimes the shiny bobble gets in the way of what we should be doing. But, if you go back to where we were a long time ago we had that and the players always seemed to choke it out and became serviceable Major Leaguers when they left. But, also we had decent everyday players and no pitching staff.

 

Joyner, McLemore, Scofield and Howell come to mind. Our OF was centered around Devo and we couldn't pitch to save our lives.

 

jump to the late 90's GA, Edmonds, Erstad and Salmon with Bengie and then Glaus, and then to 2002 (Eckstein, Kennedy, Spiez - were from outside the Organization). Add in Fulmer as the DH we did fine. Most of our extras were castoff's (Eck, Spiez and Fulmer).

 

2002 was centered on the backend lockdown pen. As most of the starters could be counted on getting through the lineup 1-2 times before they would get hammered and KROD added another dimension to the pen.

[ScottT]

Count me in with the camp that is impressed with their run, but not overly so. They've manged to get hot in October every other year. Must be nice.  

[ScottT]

The Giants owner isn't a knucklehead that hands out 10 year contract extensions to his manager.

 

How long would Arte extend Scioscia's contract after a second and third World Series title?  25 years?

[floplag]

Baseball is easy to figure out. No OBP, no rings. Everything else is hog wash.

 

extremely over simplified.  ask the A's 

[QuinlansMinion]

2014 Giants: .311 OBP (8th in NL, .312 league average)

2012 Giants: .327 OBP (4th in NL, .318 league average)

2010 Giants: .321 OBP (10th in NL, .324 league average)

Doesn't seem to be much of a correlation there. In two of the three WS years, the Giants were below league average. This is not to say that OBP isn't important--it is--but you can make up for it in other ways.

The Giants are a very strange coincidence. 2010 Lincecum was hot, 2012 they had a good OBP + good pitching, 2014 they rode Bumgardners arm to a title. I dont think you can look at the Giants and say its a formula to follow. They play in the NL in an extreme pitchers park, they have their own formula for winning.

I think better examples would be the Royals, Red Sox, Cardinals, and Yankees. All of those World Series teams had great OBP iirc. Other than that the only other team to win was the Giants, who just get incredibly hot in October and have dominant pitching.

[gurn67]

Having an owner, GM & manager that are willing to put the best performing players, not the highest paid, on the field when it matters has got to be a huge asset as well to their 3 championships. Hamilton would not have been on the playoff roster in 2014, let alone starting all 3 games, if Sabean and Bochy were running things.

[Homebrewer]

Formula:

Fire manager that can't beat MS in the world series.

Win 3 WS in the next decade.

[QuinlansMinion]

Having an owner, GM & manager that are willing to put the best performing players, not the highest paid, on the field when it matters has got to be a huge asset as well to their 3 championships. Hamilton would not have been on the playoff roster in 2014, let alone starting all 3 games, if Sabean and Bochy were running things.

Not to mention, they dont have a retarded baserunning philosophy. I still remember Cowgill thrown out at 3rd and Sosh after the game saying "well i was hoping he would go." Stuff like that can cost you in the playoffs, when you lose 1 run games.

[ksangel]

Giants drafted Lincecum, Bumgarner and Posey in top of 1st round when they were terrible.

 

Belt (5th round), Panik (1st round 29th pick - vs Cron at 17 that year) and Duffy (18th round) drafted as they got better.

 

Giants develop their 1st round picks....Angels don't (Wood, Conger, Bachanov, Cowart)

 

Giants keep their 1st round picks...Angels don't (signed GMJ, Hunter, Pujols, Wilson, Hamilton)

 

Giants don't trade their 1st round picks...Angels do (Newcomb, Grichuk, Corbin, Skaggs)

 

 

Pence is not homegrown...trade from Philadelphia

Edited December 21, 2015 by ksangel