The (sabermetric) case for Trout for MVP

[fan_since79]

2015 final ranking in the American League

 

WAR, 1st

Offensive WAR, 1st

Slugging%, 1st

OPS, 1st

Adjusted OPS+, 1st

Runs Created, 1st

Adj. Batting Runs, 1st

Adj. Batting Wins, 1st

Situational Wins Added, 1st

Times on Base, 1st

Fielding Pct., 1st (a perfect 1.000)

Putouts as CF, 1st

 

On-base Pct., 2nd

Total bases, 2nd

Home Runs, 3rd

Extra-base hits, 2nd

 

 

 

[Blarg]

So he comes in 3rd?

[Troll Daddy]

How about a saber metrics case for Scioscia too for manager of the year?

[Blarg]

How about you not troll the thread and stay on topic.

[Ordos]

He sounds pretty good, hopefully Eppler can sign this guy.

[nikkachez]

If Harper is the NL MVP, Trout deserves to be the AL MVP. The definition of MVP is still pretty vague. 

[tomsred]

If Harper is the NL MVP, Trout deserves to be the AL MVP. The definition of MVP is still pretty vague. 

 

Yep, I noticed that no one in baseball is rushing to sharpen up the definition of an MVP.  I think they like the controversy, kind of builds the suspense.

[ten ocho recon scout]

2015 final ranking in the American League

WAR, 1st

Offensive WAR, 1st

Slugging%, 1st

OPS, 1st

Adjusted OPS+, 1st

Runs Created, 1st

Adj. Batting Runs, 1st

Adj. Batting Wins, 1st

Situational Wins Added, 1st

Times on Base, 1st

Fielding Pct., 1st (a perfect 1.000)

Putouts as CF, 1st

On-base Pct., 2nd

Total bases, 2nd

Home Runs, 3rd

Extra-base hits, 2nd

dude had an absolutely brutal august, and still ends up with that. Amazing

[Brent Maguire]

dude had an absolutely brutal august, and still ends up with that. Amazing

Because absolutely brutal for Trout's standards is just mortal, not terrible. He batted .218 and only slugged .337 but he still put up a .352 OBP. The guy's worst month of the season was one where he got on base 35.2% of the time. Remarkable. 

[Docwaukee]

but runs and rbi.

 

As a by the way, he still has the most accumulated WAR thru age 23 in baseball history.  He's 9 WAR ahead of Mickey Mantle.  

[arch stanton]

You made the case that he was the best position player in the AL over the course of the season. I don't think that's necessarily what the BBWAA wants their award to be.

[Angelsjunky]

All this is well and good but ignores the fact that Josh Donaldson is also deserving. Consider:

 

1. Donaldson's overall value was almost the same, 8.7 to 9.0 fWAR.

2. Donaldson played on a playoff team

3. Donaldson had +33 RBI and +18 Runs

 

To put that another way, sabermetrically Donaldson is close - it isn't like there's a 2 WAR difference. Adding in his team making it to the playoffs and the RBI/Run differential (+51 total) and the voters will prefer him to Trout.

Edited October 27, 2015 by Angelsjunky

[Angel Oracle]

The Halos late push that barely missed the post-season may well put Trout very close.

[Stradling]

If Harper is the NL MVP, Trout deserves to be the AL MVP. The definition of MVP is still pretty vague.

I like this post. The only issue is how much better Harper was compared to the rest of the NL.

[Blarg]

The Halos late push that barely missed the post-season may well put Trout very close.

They also may consider their fall from 1st to 3rd in a one month span as well.

[Angelsjunky]

Harper is easy. He was quite a bit better than everyone except maybe Goldschmidt and Votto, but was basically the same player--big bat, mediocre defensive player--but better.

 

Trout vs. Donaldson is more difficult. What is silly, though, is getting butthurt if Donaldson wins because he is plenty deserving. The sabermetrics slightly prefer Trout, but only by a hair. When you add in playoffs and traditional stats, Donaldson will get the award.

 

To put that another way, the MVP is determined by three factors:

 

Playoffs/impact on race

Traditional stats (BA, HR, RBI, Runs, SB)

Sabermetric stats (OPS+, wRC+, WAR, etc)

 

(One could argue that OPS is borderline between traditional and sabermetric, but OPS+ or wRC+ is more sabermetric).

 

Anyhow, Donaldson has the edge on the first two categories and Trout the edge on the last.
 

Edge: Donaldson.

Edited October 27, 2015 by Angelsjunky

[fan_since79]

However, one has to consider where we would have finished without Mike Trout in the lineup. Perhaps battling Oakland for last place?

 

On the other hand, Donaldson was instrumental in Toronto's second-half push for the playoffs. 

 

Donaldson, but it should be close.

[laagamer]

dude had an absolutely brutal august, and still ends up with that. Amazing

Probably because he's the best baseball player alive.

[Blarg]

AJ it is my understanding that the voting for MVP takes place after the final game of the regular season so none of the post season is a factor. Donaldson must win on his accomplishments in 162 regular season games which may give the incumbent a little bit of an advantage or at least levels the playing field.

[Angelsjunky]

AJ it is my understanding that the voting for MVP takes place after the final game of the regular season so none of the post season is a factor. Donaldson must win on his accomplishments in 162 regular season games which may give the incumbent a little bit of an advantage or at least levels the playing field.

 

I know - by "playoffs/impact on race" I meant the impact a player had on whether his team made the playoffs. I should have been more clear.

[Blarg]

Gotcha, most people think the mvp awards are voted on after the world series. Trout just may have a slight incumbent edge but then again, chick's dig the long ball and scoring.

[floplag]

It doesnt matter, he wont get close to it this year.

The flawed logic behind it is really pointless... we will see one set of rules in the NL this year, and another in the AL

[zenmaster]

MVP voters are a blast from the past. They look at stats the same way we did in the 80s/early 90s: Average, Homers, RBIs

[Brent Maguire]

Trout won't win and I don't believe it will be all too close. Trout had a better year but it was a marginally better year and Donaldson has the RBI/R advantage and helped make Toronto relevant again. 

[QuinlansMinion]

He should get it. Pithers park, crap teammates, still led the league in OPS. Donaldson played in a hitters park, in a hitters division, with great teammates, still didnt top Trouts numbers.