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Could Trout become the greatest baseball player ever?


QuinlansMinion

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He really does everything.  He plays a position defensively where he can literally save runs with his glove, and he does.  Hes the fastest and most aggressive baserunner in baseball.  Terrific plate discipline and great at getting on base.  HIts for power and rarely misses contact.  Hes elite in every category of the game except pitching.

 

So I ask could he become the greatest ever?  What will he need to do in order to accomplish this feat?

And dont come in here with your Babe Ruth or Hank Aaron bs.  Bonds is currently the greatest player who ever lived.  

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I wrote a blog about Trout becoming an all time great today.

http://maniacball.net/2014/02/10/mike-trout-time-great/

Basically, it would take his current level of production for 4-5 more years, then a slower decline and being able to stay healthy in his career.

I think he can end up being around a top 5-10 player if everything goes right for Trout. More realistically, he'll end up in the 10-20 range.

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Probably not. Here are the top ten players in terms of all-time fWAR:

 

1. Babe Ruth 168.4

2. Barry Bonds 164.1

3. Willie Mays 149.9

4. Ty Cobb 149.3

5. Honus Wagner 138.1

6. Hank Aaron 136.3

7. Tris Speaker 130.6

8. Ted Williams 130.4

9. Rogers Hornsby 130.2

10. Stan Musial 126.8

 

The complete list is here.

 

As someone said, even if he miraculously passes Ruth, the Babe still has another 14.3 of pitching WAR.

 

Anyhow, only two of the top ten are non-outfielders (Wagner and Hornsby) and three were centerfielders (Mays, Cobb, Speaker). To be considered the greatest player of all time, Trout has to (of course) be the best at his position - which means he needs to best Cobb and Mays. By WAR, that means he needs to have the equivalent of thirteen more seasons like 2012-13. Given that he's only 22 in 2014, this is possible. But there are so many obstacles and we're about five years too early to seriously consider it.

 

Now if its five years from now, and Trout is going into his age 27 season with 70+ fWAR, then we can start talking about it. But he really needs to keep his current pace for another half decade; if he drops to a merely mortal 8 WAR/year, he still has a chance to be an all-time great, but is pretty much out of the running for greatest ever.

 

Regardless, I think its probable that he ends his career in the top 30 all-time (~85 WAR), which is an incredible thing to say about a 22-year old. He's got a solid chance at being top 20 (~100 fWAR), and an outside chance at top 10 (~130 fWAR).

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Probably not. Here are the top ten players in terms of all-time fWAR:

 

1. Babe Ruth 168.4

2. Barry Bonds 164.1

3. Willie Mays 149.9

4. Ty Cobb 149.3

5. Honus Wagner 138.1

6. Hank Aaron 136.3

7. Tris Speaker 130.6

8. Ted Williams 130.4

9. Rogers Hornsby 130.2

10. Stan Musial 126.8

 

 

Ted Williams should have an * next to his name.  

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FWar and war are the ultimate false indicators of career performance. Just hanging around playing above average ball scores you points. So it comes down to career years and one guy not on AJs list that is getting hosed by this is DiMaggio. From age 28-30 he missed his prime years due to WWII.

This is why counting stats are bullshit when determining who the best to play were.

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Not being in the top 10 all-time isn't getting "hosed," Eric. But two players not in the top 10 that are worth consideration are Lou Gehrig and Mickey Mantle, but they're 12 and 13. But both lost a few years off their careers to disease and wear-and-tear/alcoholism, respectively.

 

Joe Dimaggio is 33, but he played in less games than everyone ahead of him on the list.

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Ted Williams should have an * next to his name.  

 

Why? If anything, his all-time numbers are most effected by games missed due to WWII and the Korean War. He essentially lost five years out of his prime. Even a modest 40 extra WAR puts him past Babe Ruth.

 

Or is it because his frozen head was used as a ball?

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When talking about becoming the greatest player in MLB history you have to start with being a 5-tool player. Willie Mays was the complete package. Mike Trout is a great dynamic player but he has one huge weakness in his game. His arm, which netted him zero (0) assists last season.

Not saying arm strength isn't important but Trout makes up for it with his range in center.

If he was a below average defender with a bad arm, then it would be an issue.

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And dont come in here with your Babe Ruth or Hank Aaron bs.  

 

Ruth had 15 seasons with an adjusted OPS+ better than Trout's best so far, 179.

 

Ruth AVERAGED an OPS+ of 206 for his career, and he played until he was 40 years old.

Ruth's AVERAGE Slugging pct. is .690, far out in front of his nearest pursuer, Ted Williams at .634

 

Oh, and he won 94 games as a pitcher, with a 2.28 ERA.

 

That's not BS.

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Why? If anything, his all-time numbers are most effected by games missed due to WWII and the Korean War. He essentially lost five years out of his prime. Even a modest 40 extra WAR puts him past Babe Ruth.

 

Or is it because his frozen head was used as a ball?

 

Nope.  That's why he should have a *.  And not a Bonds *.  

 

But the head as a ball was a nice touch.

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Beer and 79. Thank you for writing what I would have. (And Junky for stats)

Nobody beats babe. The guy's hitting numbers would have been even better had he not pitched. And he was a stud pitching.

Didn't he have a good scoreless streak or consecutive World Series shutouts in 17 or 18?

Trout will never be better than Ruth. The man changed the game of baseball.

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