Perry is a very not good GM

[m0nkey]

3 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Knee in December. 

Sending internet well wishes

[Jason]

16 minutes ago, m0nkey said:

Damn didn't you just have something done or am I misremembering?

 

15 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Knee in December. 

Blarg Rendon 

[T.G.]

8 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

Blarg Rendon 

But Blarg cares

[katie]

20 minutes ago, T.G. said:

But Blarg cares

Does he though? He doesn’t work anymore. 

[Jason]

7 minutes ago, katie said:

Does he though? He doesn’t work anymore. 

Haha, @Blargis a quitter 

[Inside Pitch]

On 4/10/2024 at 7:47 PM, samwum said:

A lot to break down here. I feel like we're kind of going in circles so I'm going to try to concisely state my feelings and we can agree to disagree or whatever. 

Yes, you are. 

I think the problem is that in your haste to respond to everyone you''re not paying attention to who said what.  I responded to Strad's statement about whether or not he can live up to the 39mm.  

On 4/10/2024 at 7:47 PM, samwum said:

My stance is that Anderson's FIP, xFIP, and SIERA indicated that his 2022 season was a total anomaly and he was still a pumpkin that Perry should have avoided, or at least not given term to. 

That's great.  I think you are new here but I made all of those arguments.  I listed Tyler Anderson as someone I absolutely did not want them to sign.  But that wasn't what I responded to -- see above.

On 4/10/2024 at 7:47 PM, samwum said:

Regarding Eflin -- I don't mean to be rude, but I'm not sure if you fully understand the depth of peripheral statistics out there.

I love when people in their zeal to show how smart they are expose the exact opposite.  

On 4/10/2024 at 7:47 PM, samwum said:

From 2020 to 2022, Eflin's FIP, xFIP, and SIERA each ranged from 3.25 to 3.75. From 2020 to 2022, Anderson's FIP, xFIP, and SIERA each ranged from 4 to 6. These three stats are predictive of ERA in different ways and indicated Eflin's ERA should be between 3.25-3.75, and Anderson's ERA should be between 4-6. Obviously both of these conclusions proved to be true in 2023, and to me these stats show Eflin and Anderson are pitchers of signifcantly different calibers, yet received identical contracts. 

Read what you just wrote. 

While you are arguing with people about things they haven't said I responded directly to what you actually DID say. You're going to call it semantics, but the data you are listing above is PREDICTIVE.  I've written essays here over the years on the importance of predictive data -- almost entirely in real time and not hindsight.   The issue here is that when you were blathering on about how awful Minasian is and how he doesn't know shit beyond ERA you said PERIPHERALS.  The stats I listed are the peripherals -- they are the real accounting of how pitchers performed in certain areas.  They stuff you're talking about take those PERIPHERALS and attempts to predict outcomes after normalizing for league average data.   

You said peripherals, not predictive -- Words have meanings my dude.  Peripheral stats measure what actually happened. Predictive stats tell you what should happen if all things were equal.  You never listed ANY data, just referenced peripherals.

Predictive data was how Joe freaking Blanton became an Angel. Dipoto saw a guy that had been beating his xFIP the two years before and believed the move to Angel Stadium would make a guy who always had wild swings in the amount of HRs he gave up suddenly become consistent -- never mind that it had not been the case in Oakland.  He put up an ERA over 6.00 the year he was in Anaheim with an xFIP around 3.80.  I railed against that signing and the incorrect use of xFIP when it happened but tell me more about my not understanding PREDICTIVE stats.

On 4/10/2024 at 7:47 PM, samwum said:

Clearly I have many issues with Perry beyond Anderson, and it's fine if you'd prefer to shrug the deal off or chalk it up as not a big deal. Personally, I feel like that situation is just very indicative that Perry doesn't "get it" with pitchers. 

Again.  I wouldn't have signed him.  I expected him to regress. 

But from day one I've argued that so long as he's eating innings he need only finish with an ERA around 4.25-4.50 (depending on what the league average overall is), to live up to his contract.  Whether or not that's the best use of payroll -- not my argument.

[samwum]

31 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Yes, you are. 

I think the problem is that in your haste to respond to everyone you''re not paying attention to who said what.  I responded to Strad's statement about whether or not he can live up to the 39mm.  

That's great.  I think you are new here but I made all of those arguments.  I listed Tyler Anderson as someone I absolutely did not want them to sign.  But that wasn't what I responded to -- see above.

I love when people in their zeal to show how smart they are expose the exact opposite.  

Read what you just wrote. 

While you are arguing with people about things they haven't said I responded directly to what you actually DID say. You're going to call it semantics, but the data you are listing above is PREDICTIVE.  I've written essays here over the years on the importance of predictive data -- almost entirely in real time and not hindsight.   The issue here is that when you were blathering on about how awful Minasian and how he doesn't know shit beyond ERA you said PERIPHERALS.  The stats I listed are the peripherals -- they are the real accounting of how pitchers performed in certain areas.  They stuff you're talking about takes those PERIPHERALS and attempts to predict outcomes after normalizing for league average data.   

You said peripherals, not predictive.  Words have meaning my dude.  Peripheral measure what actually happened. Predictive tells you what should happen if all things were equal.  Predictive data was how Joe freaking Blanton became an Angel, Dipoto saw a guy that had been beating his xFIP the two years before and believed the move to Angel Stadium would make a guy who always had wild swings in the amount of HRs he gave up suddenly become consistent -- never mind that it had not been the case in Oakland.  He put up an ERA over 6.00 the year he was in Anaheim with an xFIP around 3.80.  I railed against that signing and the incorrect use of xFIP when it happened but tell me more about my not understanding predictive stats.

Again.  I wouldn't have signed him.  I expected him to regress. 

But from day one I've argued that so long as he's eating innings he need only finish with an ERA around 4.25-4.50 (depending on what the league average overall is), to live up to his contract.  Whether or not that's the best use of payroll -- not my argument.

Semantics, whatever. 

The Blanton season with a 6 ERA and 3.80 xFIP is nuts. I'm still not following you though. Blanton had awesome peripherals (lol) and his HR/9 ballooned from 1.40 the previous couple years to 2.00. To be honest, I think you're kind of talking out of your ass. I suppose you could've used park dimensions adjustments or something, but predicting a guy to give up 2 HR/9 is pretty ridiculous. That's a hell of a statistical anomaly.  

I've had a methodology the past few years focused on xFIP and SIERA, and K% and BB% less so, and it works pretty damn well. I'm also 100% positive the good organizations are looking at xFIP and SIERA -- particularly Tampa, Dodgers, Twins, Yankees, Brewers, Giants at least from my observations. Obviously there's a lot more with physics, grips, pitching+, and all that but I've recognized these teams are the ones most often developing players and acquiring players with strong xFIP and SIERA, and its clearly working for them, so I keep it simple. 

Although, I guess if everyone knew the answers, then they wouldn't need to play the games. 

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, samwum said:

I just felt like you were comparing Eppler's young guys to Minasian's young guys as a reason to give Minasian extra leash, and omitting Detmers, Canning, and Sandoval was pretty dishonest. The full outline of young guys is below and I'm not sure that I love it.

You seriously should pay closer attention to who said what.  You referenced those guys in response to @Blarg.  I had not compared anyone's young guys.  

2 hours ago, samwum said:

Ohtani, Detmers, Canning, Sandoval, Marsh (top 10 CF in the league last year), Rengifo, Adell, Walsh, Thaiss, Fletcher, and Soriano vs..... O'Hoppe, Neto, Schanuel, Moniak, Silseth, Rada, Dana, Bachman, and Joyce? 

Walsh and Fletcher predate Eppler -- they were taken in the draft before he was hired.  It's also really pretty stupid to compare XX many years of history and time for players to develop to a smaller sample size and claim "see, this guy did more".

I was a fan of Eppler's work -- ask @mmc about my multi-paragraph responses defending what he did and didn't do.  I'm not even going to bother responding to most of what's going to follow because it's all stuff I've said while defending Eppler.. 

2 hours ago, samwum said:

Even Jose Suarez graduated with a 50 grade on Fangraphs, which is better than Silseth, Bachman, Joyce, or Dana are carrying. 

Suarez made the jump to MLB in 2019, his fifth year in the system after making a three level jump in 2018.  He had a 40 grade going into 2018.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-20-prospects-los-angeles-angels/  

Now tell me how long Joyce and Dana have been in the system?   The other two sport the same exact grade Suarez did after four years despite them projecting them as RPs..   

2 hours ago, samwum said:

Eppler plucked Hansel Robles and Blake Parker off waivers and they put up 2.50 ERAs. Yusmiero Petit, 2.89 ERA. David Hernandez, 2.23 ERA. Jose Quijada was claimed off waivers by Eppler and outperformed Minasian's $7mm man Aaron Loup. Eppler somehow got Mike Mayers to put up a 2.10 ERA in 2020 and Mike Mayers fucking sucked. Taylor Cole, 1.34 ERA in 33 innings in 2018. How about Hoby Milner, who Perry DFA'd, putting up a 1.82 ERA in 64 innings last year. I mean seriously-- how the fuck did Eppler find these guys? 

Look at you. Arguing with yourself while trying to prove a point to someone that.... wait for it.... has made all those same arguments about Eppler's work finding BP arms.   

Again, you're new here but I am have died on the "don't buy relievers" hill more times than I can count.  You are preaching to the choir.  Even this winter I was advocating signing as many guys to 2 mil a year deals as possible. 

2 hours ago, samwum said:

Crazy revisionist history going on here, IMO. 

Crazy would be to argue with yourself and then point fingers at the other person for things they have never actually said.

[katie]

[samwum]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

You seriously should pay closer attention to who said what.  You referenced those guys in response to @Blarg.  I had not compared anyone's young guys.  

Walsh and Fletcher predate Eppler -- they were taken in the draft before he was hired.  It's also really pretty stupid to compare XX many years of history and time for players to develop to a smaller sample size and claim "see, this guy did more".

I was a fan of Eppler's work -- ask @mmc about my multi-paragraph responses defending what he did and didn't do.  I'm not even going to bother responding to most of what's going to follow because it's all stuff I've said while defending Eppler.. 

Suarez made the jump to MLB in 2019, his fifth year in the system after making a three level jump in 2018.  He had a 40 grade going into 2018.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-20-prospects-los-angeles-angels/  

Now tell me how long Joyce and Dana have been in the system?   The other two sport the same exact grade Suarez did after four years despite them projecting them as RPs..   

Look at you. Arguing with yourself while trying to prove a point to someone that.... wait for it has made all those same arguments about Eppler's work finding BP arms.   

Again, you're new here but I am have died on the don't buy relievers hill more times than I can count.  You are preaching to the choir.

Crazy would be to argue with yourself and then point fingers at the other person for things they have never actually said.

 

I don't know how to do the fancy edits but yeah I agree its a little silly to compare prospects at different ages or whatever. Just kind of tired of people acting like Minasian is some savant for getting like 5 guys with moderate potential as if the bar was set in hell, when it absolutely wasn't. 

Suarez's player page here has him at 50 FV, but whatever, who cares. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jose-suarez/19911/stats?position=P

Maybe a little weird to have a tiff over being the original Eppler explainer but clearly people are still living in delulu world so I'm not gonna not bring it up -- hope that's alright with you. 

Sounds like we're mostly on the same pages and am sorry for the mixup.

 

 

 

[Inside Pitch]

13 minutes ago, samwum said:

Semantics, whatever. 

Called it!  Im assuming you're intentionally saying it for the giggles.

14 minutes ago, samwum said:

The Blanton season with a 6 ERA and 3.80 xFIP is nuts. I'm still not following you though. Blanton had awesome peripherals (lol) and his HR/9 ballooned from 1.40 the previous couple years to 2.00. To be honest, I think you're kind of talking out of your ass. I suppose you could've used park dimensions adjustments or something, but predicting a guy to give up 2 HR/9 is pretty ridiculous. That's a hell of a statistical anomaly.  

It was an extreme case of guy who gave up a ton of HRs giving up an abnormal amount of HRs.  You can say I'm talking out of my ass but the reality is I argued that focusing on his xFIP in just two seasons while ignoring absolute madness that was his history was shortsighted.

Im sure the HR/9 would have dropped if he was given more innings but the team punted.

 

[Inside Pitch]

10 hours ago, samwum said:

I don't know how to do the fancy edits but yeah I agree its a little silly to compare prospects at different ages or whatever. Just kind of tired of people acting like Minasian is some savant for getting like 5 guys with moderate potential as if the bar was set in hell, when it absolutely wasn't. 

Suarez's player page here has him at 50 FV, but whatever, who cares. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jose-suarez/19911/stats?position=P

Maybe a little weird to have a tiff over being the original Eppler explainer but clearly people are still living in delulu world so I'm not gonna not bring it up -- hope that's alright with you. 

Sounds like we're mostly on the same pages and am sorry for the mixup.

No harm no foul my dude.  But you really do wanna track who said what.  Nobody wants to be lectured about shit they didn't say or don't believe -- not saying that to be a prick you had a lot of different people responding ... some more aggressively than others so I get it.  These exchanges are just easier on both parties if they aren't misquoting each other.

Welcome to the board.

[samwum]

6 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Called it!  Im assuming you're intentionally saying it for the giggles.

It was an extreme case of guy who gave up a ton of HRs giving up an abnormal amount of HRs.  You can say I'm talking out of my ass but the reality is I argued that focusing on his xFIP in just two seasons while ignoring absolute madness that was his history was shortsighted.

Im sure the HR/9 would have dropped if he was given more innings but the team punted.

 

I just checked the 2023 stats and I guess there more 2 HR/9 guys than I expected -- so fair enough.

Odd them to acquire him under the thesis that his xFIP will lead to good performance, and then punt on him when his numbers are absolutely at rock bottom but the xFIP is still fine. I guess there's pressure to get a 6 ERA guy out of the rotation, but I would think at that point he would be most likely to aggressively see positive regression. 

[samwum]

10 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

No harm no foul my dude.  But you really do wanna track who said what.  Nobody wants to be lectured about shit they didn't say or don't believe -- not saying that to be a prick you had a lot of different people responding some more aggressively than others so I get it.  These exchanges are just easier on both parties if they aren't misquoting each other.

Welcome to the board.

Thanks.

Yeah I should probably watch my tone a bit too, I'm not here to lecture or actually "argue" with anyone (because I'm always right). Just get frustrated that people can't connect the dots between Minasian's incompetence and the team's performance. 

[Inside Pitch]

13 minutes ago, samwum said:

Odd them to acquire him under the thesis that his xFIP will lead to good performance, and then punt on him when his numbers are absolutely at rock bottom but the xFIP is still fine. I guess there's pressure to get a 6 ERA guy out of the rotation, but I would think at that point he would be most likely to aggressively see positive regression. 

Dipoto used to do some weird shit.  I get that he was still trying to prove himself and so he was willing to take some risks, but he tended to buy into certain beliefs 100% and would ignore any and all data but the stuff that supported his opinion.  When you look at Blanton's career the overall gap between his ERA and xFIP wasn't big, but if you look at the year by year stuff you'll see a guy that despite a run where the two data points lined up pretty he well he tended to be over the place with his HR/9 rate.  Like a worse Ervin Santana.

Dipoto was on the right track he just picked the wrong guy to try to prove it with.

 

[samwum]

7 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Dipoto used to do some weird shit.  I get that he was still trying to prove himself and so he was willing to take some risks, but he tended to buy into certain beliefs 100% and would ignore any and all data but the stuff that supported his opinion.  When you look at Blanton's career the overall gap between his ERA and xFIP wasn't big, but if you look at the year by year stuff you'll see a guy that despite a run where the two data points lined up pretty he well he tended to be over the place with his HR/9 rate.  Like a worse Ervin Santana.

Dipoto was on the right track he just picked the wrong guy to try to prove it with.

 

Still does do some weird shit. Caballero for Raley trade last offseason was criminal. Back to back years trading significant prospects for a rental in Polanco and Hernandez. His corner infielders this year project for like 20 HR, combined. Biggest offseason splash was an aging and injury prone C to serve as DH. I wonder what he's looking at offensively because maximizing WAR does not seem to be his strategy.

Guy operates an alternate reality, but I guess he does seem to have figured something out with the pitching. 

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, m0nkey said:

Damn didn't you just have something done or am I misremembering?

Now that he's retired he's working on repairing all the damage caused during his misspent youth.

 

[Pancake Bear]

8 hours ago, Jason said:

They are really going to suck 

They look like a roughly .500 team. If that's where they end up, Minasian probably stays. If they lose 100 games? He probably is canned. 

[arch stanton]

I feel like if we want to bitch about Perry the most obvious place to start is whatever the hell his staff tried to feed the pitchers last season. At least he seems to have learned from that and moved on to Plan B

[Jason]

5 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

They look like a roughly .500 team. If that's where they end up, Minasian probably stays. If they lose 100 games? He probably is canned. 

I do not think this team has improved over last year’s squad but I don’t think they lose 100 either. I can see 90 losses though. 

[Stradling]

16 minutes ago, Jason said:

I do not think this team has improved over last year’s squad but I don’t think they lose 100 either. I can see 90 losses though. 

They could be .500 this year and not be better than last years squad. 

[Inside Pitch]

Just now, Stradling said:

They could be .500 this year and not be better than last years squad. 

Yep. 

No team is going to lose the reigning MVP, replace him with two guys picked up off the discard pile and "be better." Actually "playing better" on the other hand IS possible.

[Stradling]

10 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Yep. 

No team is going to lose the reigning MVP, replace him with two guys picked up off the discard pile and "be better." Actually "playing better" on the other hand IS possible.

Playing better or simply not having 8 of your 9 offensive starters not missing significant time can lead to better results. I know you know this but Renfroe was the only projected starter that didn’t spend significant time on the IL.

Stassi, O’Hoppe, Walsh, Drury, Urshela, Neto, Rendon, Ohtani, Ward, Trout. The most games played was Ohtani at 135.  After that only 3 other players played in 100 games. 

[Jason]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

They could be .500 this year and not be better than last years squad. 

 

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

Yep. 

No team is going to lose the reigning MVP, replace him with two guys picked up off the discard pile and "be better." Actually "playing better" on the other hand IS possible.

Serious question, do you think the pitching staff, as assembled, is good enough for them to be competitive?

[Chitown27Fan]

I think that with this pitching staff and this team we will see alot of these 4-2 we loose games they will keep us in it for a few innings but most of these guys get in trouble after 1 time threw the order no true dominatant pitches on anyone they are all nibblers with no real ok buddy here it is hit it if you can stuff when they have to throw strikes they are in trouble. In fainess most all of MLB pitchers are this tho very few have a I'll tell you its coming and you still wont hit it pitch.