Nightengale: Angels or Giants to sign Snell

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

https://apple.news/AcfRuqbluRG66jOWa7g4K_A

Edited March 4 by The Ghost of Bob Starr

[Slegnaac]

"...he won't remain unsigned for much longer."

 

[DMVol]

Interesting.

[AngelsFaninGA]

It was only a matter of time before we did something stupid. 

[happybat4]

Knowing the Angels we will sign Snell and he will have a 4.7 ERA next year.

[Second Base]

There are a couple ways to look at this. 

First, Snell rejected a qualifying offer, so it'll cost the Angels a draft pick. Not exactly the best idea for a team that fully always to finally be entering the early stages of a rebuild (cost cutting). So signing him to a one year deal would be piss poor logic. Then again, if the Angels actually reenter into a competitive window in the next 2-3 seasons, signing Snell to a long-term deal makes good business sense. 

Second, waiting this long into Spring Training, I think it sends the message he really doesn't care about signing with the Angels. So as far as the clubhouse goes, everything they're saying about building culture is clearly just words of you sign him at this point. 

Third, maybe he had no aversion to the Angels and that it's just Arte being cheap when it comes to pitchers. If they sign Snell, does it finally signal that Arte has admitted his mistakes? 

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For me, Snell is the most ridiculous pitcher I've ever seen. His whiff rate on multiple pitches is over 50% which is really unheard of in modern baseball. And his walk rate is high, but that seems to be on purpose. He doesn't give in. And that's part of what makes him great. I just don't trust the guy at all. 

[Inside Pitch]

45 minutes ago, AngelsFaninGA said:

It was only a matter of time before we did something stupid. 

 

[tdawg87]

 Boob is borderline retarded so I don't take this too seriously.

[Taylor]

1 hour ago, happybat4 said:

Knowing the Angels we will sign Snell and he will have a 4.7 ERA next year.

Or a 1.70 ERA through June 15, and then go down with a season ending injury.

[TroutField]

Is losing a 2nd round draft pick and taking the risk on Snell turning into a pumpkin probably a bad decision? Yes  

Snell 

Sandoval 

Detmers

Canning 

Silseth/Anderson/Suarez 

in addition to a rebuilt, most likely good bullpen. 

Does that rotation look a lot better than what we currently are projecting to run out there? also yes…. lol 

 

[Angels 1961]

Snell to Giants will be announced in next 18 hours

[Angel Oracle]

Only if Snell doesn’t get an opt out after year 1, will it be a good signing.

 

[tomsred]

3 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Only if Snell doesn’t get an opt out after year 1, will it be a good signing.

 

What do you think, how many years would you like to see him locked up?  I hate giving up a high draft pick at this stage.  I'm not sure one guy can fix our staff, and I like what we are seeing so far in spring training.  I think it's a tough decision.  

[Dave Saltzer]

Obviously, it would all depend on the deal we sign him to in order to justify losing the draft pick. As I wrote before in the Hot Stove thread, I can see Arte, in his mind, saying that he wants at least a draft pick for losing Ohtani. And, I would still want to sign JD Martinez. 

 

But, one argument in favor of signing Snell (again to the right deal, not an opt out after year 1 or 2 at the very least) is that this year's class is considered a rather weak class, especially in terms of pitching. So, losing a end round pick may not be as bad as losing a 2nd round pick in 2025.

[m0nkey]

Let’s go giants!

[totdprods]

Michael Lorenzen’s last two years starting are about the same as a Blake Snell non-CY season. He’ll cost many many millions less, wants to be an Angel, and won’t cost us a pick, which is one of Perry’s strongest aspects.

I don’t want us to spend on Snell, watch him lead the league in walks and post a 4.25 ERA in 120 innings and handcuff payroll for better players next winter and beyond.

If we contend in 2024, it won’t be because we did or didn’t sign Blake Snell.

Edited March 4 by totdprods

[Angel Oracle]

2 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Michael Lorenzen’s last two years starting are about the same as a Blake Snell non-CY season. He’ll cost many many millions less, wants to be an Angel, and won’t cost us a pick, which is one of Perry’s strongest aspects.

I don’t want us to spend on Snell, watch him lead the league in walks and post a 4.25 ERA in 120 innings and handcuff payroll for better players next winter and beyond.

If we contend in 2024, it won’t be because we did or didn’t sign Blake Snell.

Lorenzen’s Aug-Sept 2023 is a concern.

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Lorenzen’s Aug-Sept 2023 is a concern.

For sure, but he isn’t going to cost a lot in money or years. There are positive indicators. Could be he just hasn’t adjusted to a full 30 GS/150 IP workload yet. 

Even if it did require a 3-year deal and his pitching cratered, there’s at least a shot at recouping a Rick Ankiel OF career there too.

[Hubs]

14 hours ago, Second Base said:

There are a couple ways to look at this. 

First, Snell rejected a qualifying offer, so it'll cost the Angels a draft pick. Not exactly the best idea for a team that fully always to finally be entering the early stages of a rebuild (cost cutting). So signing him to a one year deal would be piss poor logic. Then again, if the Angels actually reenter into a competitive window in the next 2-3 seasons, signing Snell to a long-term deal makes good business sense. 

Second, waiting this long into Spring Training, I think it sends the message he really doesn't care about signing with the Angels. So as far as the clubhouse goes, everything they're saying about building culture is clearly just words of you sign him at this point. 

Third, maybe he had no aversion to the Angels and that it's just Arte being cheap when it comes to pitchers. If they sign Snell, does it finally signal that Arte has admitted his mistakes? 

--------

For me, Snell is the most ridiculous pitcher I've ever seen. His whiff rate on multiple pitches is over 50% which is really unheard of in modern baseball. And his walk rate is high, but that seems to be on purpose. He doesn't give in. And that's part of what makes him great. I just don't trust the guy at all. 

The qualifying offer loses them a 2nd rounder. It's not like back in the Trout days where a team would lose their first round pick. 

Of the Angels last 21 second round picks (https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=ANA&draft_round=2&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round) there are only a few notable names. Less so when you factor in the competitive balance rounds.

Jarrod Washburn (95) -31st overall. 

Dallas McPherson (01) - 57th overall.

Kevin Jepsen (02) - 53rd overall.

Tyler Chatwood (08) -- 74th overall

Patrick Corbin (09) -- 80th overall

Jahmai Jones (15) -- 70th overall 

Brandon Marsh (16) -- 60th overall

Griffin Canning (17) -- 47th overall

Kyren Paris (19) -- 55th overall

 

These 9 guys are the only ones to make the majors and none of them have been All-Stars for the Angels. 

This pick is #45, so it would be higher than all but one of these guys, but its not that high.

 

 

 

 

 

[Dtwncbad]

https://www.si.com/mlb/2024/03/04/blake-snell-modern-day-ace-pillow-contract-free-agent
 

The knock on Snell has been innings per start and walks.  The article above is an interesting look at how much those things really matter in the big picture of what you are getting overall with Snell.

[totdprods]

I agree @Hubs with what you are saying, but it's also not necessarily the best comp to the situation. 

Another way to look at it in a way that's more relevant...
2020: Reid Detmers 1st Round, no second round - in the bigs
2021: Sam Bachman 1st Round, Ky Bush 2nd, Landon Marceaux 3rd - one guy in the bigs, two used in trades to support the team
2022: Zach Neto 1st Round, no second round pick, Ben Joyce 3rd, Jake Madden 4th - two guys in the bigs, one used in a trade to support the team
2023: Nolan Schanuel 1st Round, no second pick - already in the bigs

The two big takeaways? 
Perry's top picks are being used on guys who are quick to help the MLB team - either directly by being promoted, or being traded to add to the big league team, and the track record for the former is strong. 
And the other? Four drafts, only one second round pick.

The Angels, especially now, need every draft pick they can get, especially since arguably Perry's best skill so far is drafting guys who have almost immediate impact on the MLB team. Maximize that! It's his last known year under contract.

Edited March 4 by totdprods

[totdprods]

Also, those names you're mentioning are almost to the point where it's an entire different era of baseball. It's happening very quickly, but MLB is becoming more and more about capitalizing on the value of guys aged 20-25, not 28-32 like even a decade ago. That's why the minor leagues were consolidated. That's why guys like Tim Anderson and Amed Rosario are taking really cheap deals and guys like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are still unsigned. 

Baseball is very quickly becoming a sport where guys drafted in the first couple of rounds are expected to be in the bigs within a year or three at most it seems, even some guys being plucked from HS (someone like Jackson Jobe comes to mind, a HS picked in '21 who very possibly will debut this year).

What the Angels and Perry have been doing seems a little surprising, but truth is MLB is moving very quickly towards this model. The owners are recognizing this is where they'll save money and make profit, and it's gradually forcing the average MLB team into being a team of guys in their early 20's rather than mid to late 20's. That wasn't the case when guys like Jepsen and Chatwood were being drafted, heck even Marsh is starting to be on the fringe of that timeframe of when things started to shift.

Edited March 4 by totdprods

[Pheenom07]

I don’t get the big deal about losing a 2nd rounder.  If he signs a pillow contract with an opt-out and does well, do we not believe we can trade him mid-season if we have no shot for the playoffs ? Even if he does bad (~4 ERA) someone will think they can turn him around for a playoff run. 

[totdprods]

7 minutes ago, Pheenom07 said:

I don’t get the big deal about losing a 2nd rounder.  If he signs a pillow contract with an opt-out and does well, do we not believe we can trade him mid-season if we have no shot for the playoffs ? Even if he does bad (~4 ERA) someone will think they can turn him around for a playoff run. 

I think a lot has to happen for that scenario to present itself...I don't think he signs a one-year deal, and if he does, I don't really see why it makes sense for the Angels or for Blake Snell. I imagine the number of teams willing and able to sign him to a straight one-year deal would open many more teams into the fold. 

If he has opt-outs, especially after the first year, what team would give up a lot if he was pitching well, knowing he'd likely opt-out to test the market? If he wasn't pitching that great - he likely isn't opting out, meaning that again a team would not give up much. The acquiring team is kinda effed either way, and the Angels probably aren't getting anything better than what they'd lose giving up the draft pick to sign him. It's too much of a wash without any real gain.

If he sucks or gets hurt the Angels are stuck. Also NTC language could be a hurdle.

Edited March 4 by totdprods

[DMVol]

6 minutes ago, Pheenom07 said:

I don’t get the big deal about losing a 2nd rounder.  If he signs a pillow contract with an opt-out and does well, do we not believe we can trade him mid-season if we have no shot for the playoffs ? Even if he does bad (~4 ERA) someone will think they can turn him around for a playoff run. 

I guess in theory, you could get the equivalent of a 2nd round pick in a trade, depending on how well he pitches.